Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability in the hotel management segment, with a focus on high-end brand expansion [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][16]

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证券研究报告 | 2025年10月23日 策略研究·策略解读 | | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | | | | 事项： 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会听取和 讨论了习近平总书记受中央政治局委托所作的工作报告，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。习近平总书记就《建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。 策略解读 抢占科技发展制高点 解读： 公报作为"十五五"时期的战略擘画，将"抢占科技发展制高点"置于驱动国家现代化建设的核心位置。 《中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》指出，为实现"十五五"时期高质量发展，必须 加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力。其战略路径是抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革历史机遇， 并通过统筹教育强国、科技强国、人才强国建设，以及一体推进教育科技人才发展，来提升国家创新体系 整体 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "seizing the high ground of technological development" as a core strategy for driving national modernization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][10] - It outlines a strategic path that includes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, integrating education, technology, and talent development to enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [4][10] - The ultimate goal is to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [4][10] Industry and Policy Direction - The report highlights a clear progression in China's industrial policy from the 12th to the 14th Five-Year Plans, with an increasing emphasis on nurturing strategic emerging industries [6][10] - During the 12th Five-Year Plan, the focus was on cultivating strategic emerging industries, while the 13th Five-Year Plan shifted towards implementing intelligent manufacturing projects [5][6] - The 14th Five-Year Plan identifies emerging industries as the core driving force for future development, with a broad range of sectors including information technology, biotechnology, and new energy [5][9] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies the "8+9" new industries as key investment directions during the 14th Five-Year Plan, characterized by innovation, technology intensity, and broad development prospects [10] - The total market capitalization of strategic emerging industries in the A-share market has reached 36 trillion yuan, accounting for about 40% of the total number of listed companies [10] - Key sectors with the highest number of listed companies include pharmaceuticals, electronics, computers, and machinery, which are closely related to new productive forces [10] Economic Growth and Structural Changes - The report notes that the transition to new productive forces is a necessary path for economic growth, with the "engineer dividend" being a crucial factor in driving the long-term success of the technology sector [12] - It highlights that China is currently in a strong position regarding the "engineer dividend," which is expected to lead the A-share market in the medium to long term [12] - The report anticipates that the technology bull market in A-shares will continue through 2026 and the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by advancements in hard technology and self-reliance [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability, with the company now managing over 2,700 hotels and a significant expansion in high-end hotel offerings [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7][5][38] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 14.1 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, driven by the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle (ATV) segments, although profit growth has slowed due to tariff impacts [1][10] - The company is set to launch several new products in 2024, including high-performance models in the ATV and motorcycle segments, which are expected to enhance competitiveness and drive growth [3][24][27] - The electric two-wheeler segment, represented by the brand "Jike," is emerging as a new growth curve, with significant sales increases anticipated [35][36] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 27.6%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 10.0%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][18] - The company forecasts net profits of 18.49 billion, 23.86 billion, and 28.61 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 12.12, 15.64, and 18.75 yuan [5][38] Product Development - The company is actively expanding its motorcycle lineup with new models set to launch in 2024 and 2025, enhancing its market presence and competitiveness [4][27][29] - The introduction of the U10 PRO and U10 XL PRO models in the ATV segment is expected to significantly boost the company's market position in high-end products [24][25] Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its export business, particularly in North America and Europe, leveraging its competitive pricing and product offerings [31][32] - The electric two-wheeler market is being targeted with a comprehensive product matrix aimed at various consumer segments, indicating a strategic shift towards electric mobility [35][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit continuously from the development of AI and data centers, with a significant increase in revenue and profit forecasted for 2025-2027 [3][20]. - The company has launched an equity incentive plan, reflecting confidence in future growth, with specific performance targets set for net profit growth [2][20]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and a net profit of 680 million yuan, up 65.26% year-on-year [1][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 34.08%, down 4.54 percentage points from 2024, while the gross margin for Q3 2025 was 35.56%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.78 percentage points [10][1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 277 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year improvement [13]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is as follows: 2025E revenue of 14.67 billion yuan, 2026E revenue of 18.23 billion yuan, and 2027E revenue of 22.53 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.4%, 24.3%, and 23.5% respectively [4][18]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.09 billion yuan, 1.44 billion yuan, and 1.84 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 89.8%, 31.7%, and 28.3% [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 56.6, 43.0, and 33.5 respectively [21][20]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 20.8% in 2025 to 25.6% in 2027 [4][22].

========= - In September 2025, the median performance of US equity funds was 1.81%, international equity funds was 2.44%, bond funds was 0.93%, and asset allocation funds was 2.25% [1][14][16] - Among US equity funds, large-cap growth funds had the best median return of 4.09%, while small-cap funds had the lowest median return of 0.57% [15] - International equity funds investing in the Greater China region had the best median return of 7.38% in September 2025 [15] - Bond funds investing in US municipal bonds had a median return of 2.34% in September 2025, and global bond funds had a median return of 6.38% year-to-date [17] - Asset allocation funds categorized by stock-bond allocation showed that target-date funds had the highest median return of 2.61% in September 2025, while conservative allocation funds had the lowest median return of 1.58% [17] - The total size of US mutual funds reached $20.2 trillion by the end of 2024, while ETFs reached $10.3 trillion [12] - In September 2025, active management funds had a net inflow of $7.9 billion, while passive funds had a net inflow of $78.5 billion [2][27] - The top 10 asset management firms in the US mutual fund market mostly experienced net outflows in September 2025, with Vanguard and Capital Group having the largest outflows of $19.9 billion and $7.9 billion, respectively [3][36] - The top 10 asset management firms in the US ETF market all had net inflows in September 2025, with iShares and Vanguard having the largest inflows of $49.7 billion and $30.7 billion, respectively [3][36] - In September 2025, the US market saw the launch of 78 new funds, including 71 ETFs and 7 open-end funds [4][48] - The top 10 open-end funds with the highest net inflows in September 2025 included 4 equity funds and 6 bond funds, with Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund having the highest inflow of $5.8 billion [45] - The top 10 ETFs with the highest net inflows in September 2025 included 8 equity funds and 2 commodity funds, with iShares Core S&P 500 ETF having the highest inflow of $18.7 billion [46] =========

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 14.1 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, driven by the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle (ATV) businesses, although profit growth has slowed due to tariff impacts [1][10]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 27.6%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 10.0%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][18]. - The company is set to launch several new products in 2024, including the U10 PRO and U10 XL PRO, which are expected to drive significant growth in the ATV segment [3][24]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 50.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.1% [1][10]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 29.5% [1][10]. - The company forecasts net profits of 18.49 billion yuan, 23.86 billion yuan, and 28.61 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][38]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its motorcycle lineup with new models such as the 150SC, 450MT, and 500SR VOOM, aiming to enhance competitiveness and market share [4][27]. - The electric motorcycle brand, Jike, is expected to become a significant growth driver, with plans to establish a production base in Zhejiang Province [35][36]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on both domestic and international markets, with a renewed emphasis on exporting motorcycles, particularly to North America and Europe [31][32]. - The competitive pricing of its products, such as the 450SS, positions the company favorably against established competitors in overseas markets [32][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company is expected to continuously benefit from the development of AI and data centers, with a significant increase in revenue and profit forecasted for 2025-2027 [3][20]. - The company has launched an equity incentive plan, demonstrating confidence in its future development, with specific performance targets set for net profit growth [2][20]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and a net profit of 680 million yuan, up 65.26% year-on-year [1][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 34.08%, down 4.54 percentage points from 2024, while the gross margin for Q3 2025 was 35.56%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.78 percentage points [10][1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 277 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year improvement [13]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is as follows: 2025E revenue of 14.67 billion yuan, 2026E revenue of 18.23 billion yuan, and 2027E revenue of 22.53 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.4%, 24.3%, and 23.5% respectively [4][18]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.09 billion yuan, 1.44 billion yuan, and 1.84 billion yuan, with growth rates of 89.8%, 31.7%, and 28.3% respectively [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 56.6, 43.0, and 33.5 respectively [21][20]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 20.8% in 2025 to 25.6% in 2027 [4][22].