证券研究报告 | 2025年10月24日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 0.00%、3.18%、1.04%、3.85%、2.99%、 3.14%、2.77%、4.99%。中信一级行业指数中通信、石油石化、电力及 公用事业、建筑、电子行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合 金融、银行、消费者服务、医药行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指 数中，万得微盘股日频等权、林木、锂矿、电力公用事业、石油天然气、 煤炭、万得全 A 等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 10 月 24 日，共 1123 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.211 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 45.002 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year, but a net profit of 2.816 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year. Excluding stock incentive expenses and specific bad debt provisions, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters would be 3.675 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [1][4]. - The company's energy storage battery shipments are rapidly increasing, with a total shipment of 83.0 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase. The shipments for Q3 2025 alone reached 32.8 GWh, a 20% increase from the previous quarter [2][4]. - The company is advancing its global strategy and rapidly deploying new technologies, including the successful launch of the "Longquan No. 2" all-solid-state battery, which has an energy density of 300 Wh/kg [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 16.832 billion yuan, a 36% year-on-year increase and a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.211 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase and a 140% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][4]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of 4.505 billion yuan, 7.525 billion yuan, and 9.611 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 67%, and 28% [4][5]. Market Trends - The company is experiencing a strong demand for its energy storage batteries, with significant partnerships in the electric vehicle sector, including collaborations with BMW, Xiaopeng, and others, which are expected to enhance market share [2][3]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity in Malaysia and Hungary, with plans for a solid-state battery production base in Chengdu [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in both its energy storage and power battery segments, driven by high capacity utilization rates and stable pricing [2][4]. - The forecast for the company's revenue growth is robust, with expected revenues of 64.918 billion yuan in 2025, 91.005 billion yuan in 2026, and 112.856 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 33.5%, 40.2%, and 24% respectively [5][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][23] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.211 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 45.002 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.816 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year. Excluding stock incentive expenses and specific bad debt provisions, the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.675 billion yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year [1][4] - The company experienced rapid growth in the sales volume of power storage batteries, with a total shipment of 83.0 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 47% year-on-year increase. The shipment of power batteries was 34.6 GWh, up 67% year-on-year, and storage batteries were 48.4 GWh, up 36% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is advancing its global strategy and rapidly deploying new technologies, including the successful launch of the "Longquan No. 2" 10Ah all-solid-state battery, which has an energy density of 300 Wh/kg [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.832 billion yuan, a 36% year-on-year increase and a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.211 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase and a 140% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][4] - The company adjusted its profit forecast, estimating net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.505 billion yuan, 7.525 billion yuan, and 9.611 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 67%, and 28% [4][5] Market Trends - The company’s power storage battery sales maintained a rapid growth trend, with Q3 2025 shipments of 32.8 GWh, a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company is expected to benefit from increasing recognition of its large storage cell products and expanding partnerships with major automotive clients [2][4] Technological Advancements - The company is establishing a solid-state battery research institute and production base in Chengdu, with plans for significant production capacity by the end of 2025 and into 2026. The global expansion includes ongoing projects in Malaysia and Hungary [3][4]

Group 1: Financial Industry Insights - The financial industry is closely linked to the real economy, emphasizing the importance of financial support for economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and improved living standards by 2035[4] - The financial sector is expected to play a crucial role in achieving the goals set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" by providing necessary support to the real economy[5] Group 2: Technological Finance - Technological finance is highlighted as a key area for supporting the construction of a modern industrial system and achieving high-level technological self-reliance[6] - As of June 2025, the balance of loans to high-tech enterprises reached 18.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, outpacing overall loan growth by 1.4 percentage points[7] - The demand for financing in the technology sector is expected to increase, benefiting banks through both credit demand and equity investment opportunities[7] Group 3: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is maintained at "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance exceeding the market index by over 10% within the next 6 to 12 months[12] - The report emphasizes the importance of financial services in supporting the modernization of industries and technological advancements, which are critical for future growth[6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and deepening reforms as key goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4][5][6] - It highlights the transition from traditional industries to strategic emerging industries, focusing on innovation-driven growth and intelligent manufacturing [5][6][7] - The future outlook suggests that technological self-reliance will be the main theme for the next five years, with significant growth expected in new strategic industries [7][8] Summary by Sections 12th Five-Year Plan - The core focus was on optimizing industrial structure and enhancing foundational capabilities, with key areas including modern agriculture, manufacturing upgrades, and strategic emerging industries [4] - The report notes that the growth sector's market share was only 14.5% at the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan, while traditional industries saw significant value increases due to urbanization and industrialization [4] 13th Five-Year Plan - The emphasis shifted to innovation-driven development and intelligent manufacturing, with a clear directive to implement the "Made in China 2025" initiative [5] - The report indicates that the market share of consumption rose to 25.47%, with a notable 78% increase in the consumption index net value during this period [5] 14th Five-Year Plan - The focus is on modernizing the industrial chain and ensuring technological self-sufficiency, with a push for new generation information technology and green industries [6] - The report highlights that the consumer sector's market share decreased to 23.94%, while the growth sector's share increased to 21.50%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2024, the contribution of the "three new" economies to GDP will exceed 18%, with emerging industries like new energy and materials expected to drive significant market growth [7][8] - It identifies sectors with strong global competitiveness, such as general computing equipment and electronic chemicals, as key areas for investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][32][29] Core Views - The third-generation refrigerant market is experiencing a prolonged boom cycle, with prices increasing steadily each quarter. The company has a leading position in production quotas, benefiting from the industry's upward trend [1][20][29] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.22%, driven primarily by strong performance in the refrigerant business [1][9][10] - The company is expanding its liquid cooling business in response to growing demand from data centers, positioning itself for future growth in this area [4][28][29] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.394 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, and a net profit of 3.248 billion yuan, up 160.2% year-on-year. The gross margin reached 28.9%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points [1][9][10] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 7.062 billion yuan, a 21.2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 1.197 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 186.55% [1][9][10] Refrigerant Business - The company sold 230,600 tons of refrigerants in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, but the average selling price increased to 40,554 yuan per ton, up 58.1% year-on-year [10][21] - The pricing of refrigerants is increasingly decoupled from traditional cyclical pricing, indicating a long-term upward trend in prices [20][21] Non-Refrigerant Business - The non-refrigerant business is facing intense competition, with a slight decrease in the average price of fluoropolymers. Sales of fluoropolymers reached 36,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [3][25] - The market for fluoropolymers is transitioning from general-purpose to specialized and high-end products, indicating a shift in industry dynamics [25][27] Liquid Cooling Business - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is rapidly increasing due to advancements in AI technology and the limitations of traditional cooling methods. The company has initiated projects to produce fluorinated liquids for cooling applications [4][28][29] - A strategic partnership has been established to develop the largest immersion liquid cooling intelligent computing center in China, further enhancing growth prospects in this sector [28][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][26][30] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly year-on-year, with revenue reaching 12.73 billion yuan (up 72.5% YoY, up 5.6% QoQ) and net profit at 3.23 billion yuan (up 162.3% YoY, down 1.5% QoQ) [9][26] - The expansion of polyolefin production capacity continues to contribute to profit growth, with polyethylene and polypropylene sales reaching 678,200 tons and 667,100 tons respectively (up 171% and 165% YoY, up 6% QoQ) [17][26] - The company maintains a cost advantage in coal-based olefins, with average procurement prices for key raw materials remaining low, leading to improved gross margins [20][24] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 38.4% and a net margin of 25.4%, with total expenses at 7.5% [9][26] - The average selling prices for polyethylene and polypropylene were 6,439 yuan/ton and 6,180 yuan/ton respectively (down 8% and 9% YoY) [17][26] Production and Sales - The company’s EVA/LDPE product output and sales in Q3 were 53,900 tons and 56,700 tons (up 84% and 118% YoY) [2][17] - The company’s coke sales reached 1.7739 million tons in Q3 (up 0.2% YoY, up 4.2% QoQ) [18][26] Cost Structure - The average procurement prices for gasification coal, coking coal, and thermal coal were 448 yuan/ton, 740 yuan/ton, and 325 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant year-on-year decreases [20][24] - The cost advantage of coal-based olefins remains substantial, with average costs of 6,338 yuan/ton for coal-based and 7,456 yuan/ton for oil-based olefins, resulting in a cost advantage of approximately 1,119 yuan/ton [24][26] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 12.206 billion yuan, 12.413 billion yuan, and 13.267 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 1.81 yuan [26][28]

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights concerns regarding the U.S. banking sector, particularly with regional banks facing significant sell-offs due to loan fraud and bad debt risks, which raises credit concerns [6] - The Chinese Communist Party's recent meeting discussed the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of seizing technological development opportunities [6] Industry and Company - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from the long-term logic of innovative drugs, with a focus on companies showing signs of bottom reversal [7][8] - The report emphasizes the increasing competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs in global markets, with several companies recommended for their high-quality innovation capabilities, including 康方生物, 科伦博泰, and 三生制药 [7][8] - The medical device sector is anticipated to experience valuation recovery due to policy optimization, market recovery, and performance rebound, with companies like 迈瑞医疗 and 威高股份 highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report on 望圆科技 indicates it is a leading player in the wireless pool robot market, with a projected revenue of 540 million in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 31% from 2022 to 2024 [11][12] - The global pool robot market is expected to grow significantly, with the retail scale projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2024, driven by the rapid development of wireless products [12] - 望圆科技's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive technology development capabilities and extensive product and channel layout, which supports its global expansion [14] - 锐捷网络's financial performance shows a strong revenue increase of 27.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from the AI data center development [15][16] - 春风动力 reported a revenue increase of 30.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by its motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle business [18][19] - 同程旅行 expects a resilient growth in Q3 2025, with a projected revenue increase of 9.8% year-on-year, supported by its core OTA business [23][24] - 腾讯控股 is anticipated to achieve a revenue of 188.8 billion in Q3 2025, with growth driven by its gaming, marketing services, and financial technology sectors [26][27][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability in the hotel management segment, with a focus on high-end brand expansion [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][16]

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