证券研究报告 | 2025年08月20日 众安在线（06060.HK） 优于大市 承保利润提升，数字金融卓见成效 承保利润及投资收益大幅提升，公司归母净利润同比增长 11 倍。2025 年上半 年，公司实现总保费收入 166.61 亿元，同比增长 9.3%，市场份额进一步提升。 保险服务收入达 150.41 亿元，承保综合成本率为 95.6%，同比改善 2.3 个百 分点。承保利润同比增长 109.1%至 6.56 亿元，显示出公司在承保质量与成本 控制方面的持续优化。净利润方面，集团归属于母公司股东的净利润大幅提升 至 6.68 亿元，较去年同期的 0.55 亿元增长超过 11 倍，主要得益于保险业务 利润的显著提升、ZA Bank 扭亏为盈以及科技业务亏损的大幅收窄。 健康及汽车生态增速超 30%，创新产品矩阵扩容。1）健康领域：总保费同比 增长 38.3%至 62.75 亿元，占整体保费结构的 37.7%，成为最大保费贡献来源。 公司不断拓展多元医疗产品供给，其中众民保系列实现保费收入 10.3 亿元， 同比大幅增长 6.4 倍。2）数字生活：保费同比下滑 16.3%，其中宠物险、低 空经济等创新业务增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][30] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.221 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 676 million yuan, up 6.05% year-on-year [10][4] - The copper alloy product sales increased by 11% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 126,000 tons in the first half of 2025, completing 90% of the annual target [22][2] - The new energy segment saw a profit increase of 4% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 1,017 MW in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 4.5% increase [28][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.221 billion yuan, a net profit of 676 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 655 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15.21%, 6.05%, and 7.88% [10][4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 5.257 billion yuan, a net profit of 359 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 349 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +19.94%, -4.17%, and -2.02% [10][4] Product Sales - The copper alloy new materials segment achieved a sales volume of 126,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 7.935 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.83% [22][2] - The sales volume of copper alloy products included 56,000 tons of bars, 15,000 tons of wires, 36,000 tons of strips, and 18,000 tons of precision fine wires, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 2.6%, 11.9%, and 14.9% [22][2] New Energy Segment - The new energy segment reported a revenue of 2.170 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 10.10% year-on-year, but the net profit increased to 442 million yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year [28][3] - The company is advancing its projects in the U.S., including a 2 GW N-type component project that began trial production in April 2025, and a new 1 GW N-type component project expected to start trial production in August 2025 [28][3] Future Projections - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 20.615 billion yuan, 23.683 billion yuan, and 24.020 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.50%, 14.89%, and 1.42% [30][4] - The projected net profit for the same years is 1.390 billion yuan, 1.496 billion yuan, and 1.678 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.70%, 7.60%, and 12.21% [30][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][32]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.82 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12%, driven by strong growth in imaging product revenue [2][10]. - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 reached 470 million yuan, a significant increase of 71% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 26% [2][10]. - The paid penetration rate reached 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating successful growth in paid user subscriptions [3][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, with imaging products accounting for 74% of revenue, and a strong growth of 45% in imaging and design product revenue [2][10]. - Gross profit was 1.34 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 74%, an increase of 9 percentage points year-on-year [2][10]. - The company maintained good cost control, with overall expenses increasing by 19% year-on-year, primarily due to continued investment in AI and marketing [2][10]. User Metrics - Monthly active users (MAU) reached 280 million, a 9% increase year-on-year, while VIP paid members grew to 15.4 million, up 42% [3][18]. - The average revenue per paying user (ARRPU) was 193 yuan, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [3][18]. Business Segments - Imaging and design product revenue was 1.351 billion yuan, up 45% year-on-year, while advertising revenue grew by 5% to 430 million yuan [2][21]. - The beauty solutions business saw a significant decline of 89%, generating only 30 million yuan in revenue [23]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on monetization strategies for its AI agent product, roboneo, which has exceeded one million MAU without any marketing [4][22]. - Collaboration with Alibaba on AI fitting features is expected to drive additional revenue through e-commerce integration [4][22]. - The company anticipates continued growth in paid penetration rates, projecting an increase to over 10% in the long term [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][28] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025, despite a decline in revenue due to reduced trading business scale. The gross margin and net margin improved, indicating enhanced profitability [1][10] - The core business of the company is in the fertilizer sector, with phosphate fertilizer being the largest revenue contributor. The company is expanding its international market presence while maintaining a strong domestic supply chain [2][17] - The supply-demand dynamics for phosphate rock are tight, with prices expected to remain high due to resource scarcity. The company has significant phosphate rock reserves, ensuring stable raw material supply for its production [3][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.2% [1][10] - The company's gross margin was 21.3%, and the net margin was 13.7%, both showing improvements compared to previous periods [10] Business Segments - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer, and urea was 6.995 billion, 3.126 billion, and 2.569 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 28%, 13%, and 10% of total revenue. Phosphate fertilizer remains the largest single product contributor [2][17] - The average selling prices for phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer, and urea were 3,152 yuan, 3,179 yuan, and 1,754 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +7%, and -19% respectively [2][17] Market Outlook - The domestic phosphate rock supply-demand situation is tight, with prices expected to remain elevated due to increasing demand and declining ore grades. The company has a production capacity of 5.84 million tons of phosphate rock, ensuring self-sufficiency [3][22] - The prices for various phosphate chemical products showed mixed trends, with feed-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate prices increasing by 21% year-on-year, while prices for polyoxymethylene and yellow phosphorus decreased [23][22] Investment Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and has added projections for 2027, estimating net profits of 5.523 billion, 5.574 billion, and 5.709 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 3.01, 3.04, and 3.11 yuan [4][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][21] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have decreased year-on-year due to a decline in electricity and coal sales prices, with a revenue of 9.862 billion yuan (-6.74%) and a net profit of 1.335 billion yuan (-13.45%) in the first half of 2025 [1][7] - Despite the overall decline, the company experienced a significant increase in coal external sales, which rose by 50.34% to 5.727 million tons in the first half of 2025 [2][8] - The company is expected to see further growth in coal production with the upcoming commissioning of the Zhao Shipan coal mine, which has a capacity of 6 million tons per year, projected to begin trial operations in September 2025 [20][21] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company generated a revenue of 9.862 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.335 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.45% year-on-year [1][7] - The company's electricity generation was 21.922 billion kWh, down 9.03% year-on-year, while coal production increased by 6.53% to 9.8862 million tons [2][8] - The company's gross margin decreased to 34.97%, down 2.37 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower electricity generation and coal prices [16][18] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.901 billion yuan, 3.331 billion yuan, and 3.736 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.6%, 14.8%, and 12.1% [3][21] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.77 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.00 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.0, 10.4, and 9.3 [3][21] Operational Developments - The company is actively advancing several power generation projects, including the Yan'an Thermal Power Phase II and Shanzhong Power Plant Phase II, which are expected to enhance the company's electricity generation capacity significantly [21] - The company has optimized its coal sales strategy, leading to increased external coal sales, which contributed to revenue growth in the coal business despite overall revenue decline [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the textile and apparel industry [5][8]. Core Views - The apparel retail sales growth in July showed a slight decline, with outdoor gear and maternal and infant products being highlighted as key areas for new stock analysis [1][2]. - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing a rebound, with Vietnam's textile exports accelerating to a growth rate of 16.7% in July, while China's textile exports showed a modest improvement [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong performance in their mid-year reports, particularly those with solid fundamentals and undervalued positions [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Since August, the textile and apparel sector has performed in line with the broader market, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel, showing increases of 4.2% and 3.4% respectively [1][13]. - Key companies leading the market include Xtep International (+9.4%), Bosideng (+8.5%), and Li Ning (+8.1%) [1][21]. Brand Apparel Insights - In July, apparel retail sales grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decline [1][22]. - E-commerce sales saw a significant rebound, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments, with growth rates of 11% and 26% respectively [1][2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports showed a month-on-month acceleration, while China's textile exports remained flat with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [2][4]. - The report notes that the pricing of cotton has shown slight fluctuations, with a decrease of 0.7% in August [2][4]. New Stock Analysis - The report highlights three new stocks in the outdoor gear and maternal and infant products sectors, all of which are leaders in their respective markets and possess competitive advantages [3][4]. Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, all rated as "Outperform," including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning, with projected EPS growth for 2025 and 2026 [8][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Fuyao Glass [5][3][48] Core Viewpoints - Fuyao Glass achieved a 37% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 21.4 billion yuan, a 17% increase [1][7] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.90 yuan per share, totaling 2.349 billion yuan, which represents 49% of the net profit for the period [2][25] - The automotive glass industry is expected to enter a new growth phase driven by the increasing size and technological upgrades of automotive glass, with Fuyao positioned to benefit from these trends [2][26] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Fuyao Glass reported revenue of 11.5 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year [1][7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 38.49%, reflecting a 3.09 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [19][21] - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 24.05%, up 1.84 percentage points year-on-year [19] Market Position and Growth Potential - Fuyao Glass holds a global market share of over 36% in automotive glass, with a year-on-year increase of 1.88 percentage points [2][29] - The company is expanding production capacity in various locations, including Fuzhou and Anhui, which is expected to enhance its market position [2][26] - The average price of automotive glass per square meter has increased from 174 yuan in 2020 to 229 yuan in 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% [2][36] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits for Fuyao Glass to reach 9.984 billion yuan, 11.228 billion yuan, and 12.992 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3][48] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of over 60% from 2021 to 2024 [3][48] Technological Advancements - Fuyao is focusing on high-value-added products, including smart glass and advanced coatings, which are anticipated to drive future revenue growth [2][35][46] - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with expenditures increasing from 155 million yuan in 2010 to 1.678 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 18.5% [35][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][37]. Core Views - The company achieved a 72% year-on-year growth in net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 900 million yuan, a 25.25% increase compared to the previous year [1][7]. - The company is actively expanding into electric, intelligent, and lightweight new businesses, planning to invest 650 million yuan in building production capacity for smart suspensions and electric and hydraulic drive elastic components [3][31]. - The company has successfully integrated previous acquisitions, with key clients such as Geely, Wandu, and Changan contributing to revenue growth [3][33]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 483 million yuan, a 16.16% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 46 million yuan, up 52% year-on-year [1][7]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 24.25%, an increase of 3.87 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 9.52%, up 2.07 percentage points year-on-year [1][16]. - The company forecasts net profits of 180 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 320 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][33]. Business Segments - The company specializes in spring manufacturing, with 50% of revenue coming from chassis components and 40% from body interiors and power systems [2][25]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its capabilities, including the purchase of key assets to expand its product offerings and market reach [2][24]. Market Position - The company currently holds over 10% market share in the domestic chassis spring market, which is expected to grow to 150 billion yuan by 2027 [25][27]. - The company has established a broad customer base, including well-known domestic and international automotive brands, and is expanding its global presence [27][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [6][11]. Core Views - The beer business has shown growth in both volume and price, with a revenue increase of 2.5% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by the company's embrace of new retail channels and strong consumption during the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The white liquor business has faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of 33.7% year-on-year in 1H25, primarily due to industry adjustments and policy impacts [2][10]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% in the beer segment, aided by cost reductions and operational efficiency measures [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a total revenue of 239.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 57.9 billion CNY, up 22.8% [1][9]. - The core EBIT for the same period was 71.1 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year [1][9]. Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue rose by 2.5% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 2.2% and price per ton rising by 0.4% [1][9]. - The growth in sales volume was attributed to the company's strategic focus on non-traditional retail channels and effective inventory management [1][9]. - High-end products like Heineken maintained strong growth, with sales growth exceeding 20% despite a high base from the previous year [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated 7.8 billion CNY in revenue, down 33.7% year-on-year, with a significant impact on profitability due to fixed cost dilution [2][10]. - The white liquor business accounted for only 3.3% of total revenue, limiting its overall impact on the company's performance [2][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 388.2 billion CNY, 398.6 billion CNY, and 409.6 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 2.7%, and 2.8% [3][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 59.0 billion CNY, 59.6 billion CNY, and 64.1 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 24.4%, 1.0%, and 7.6% respectively [3][11].

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has shown a performance in line with the broader market since August, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel, recording increases of 4.2% and 3.4% respectively [13][19] - Key companies leading the upward trend include Xtep International (+9.4%), Bosideng (+8.5%), and Li Ning (+8.1%) [13][19] Brand Apparel Insights - In July, the retail sales of clothing grew by 1.8% year-on-year, reflecting a slight deceleration compared to the previous month [21] - E-commerce sales saw a significant rebound, particularly in outdoor apparel, with growth rates of 26% for outdoor clothing and 11% for sportswear [21][28] - Notable brands with double-digit growth include Descente (+63%), Puma (+41%), and Lululemon (+39%) [21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports accelerated in July, with a month-on-month growth of 16.7%, while China's textile exports showed a modest increase of 0.5% [2] - The PMI for Vietnam, Indonesia, and India rose by 3.5, 2.3, and 0.7 respectively, indicating improved manufacturing conditions [2] - The cotton prices have shown slight fluctuations, with domestic prices decreasing by 0.7% and international prices increasing by 1.8% since August [2] Company Performance and Forecasts - Non-sport apparel brands have generally faced challenges due to macroeconomic conditions, leading to a decline in revenue and increased inventory impairment [4] - Sports apparel brands have maintained robust fundamentals, with management teams optimistic about meeting annual performance targets despite a slowdown in growth [4] - Companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are expected to show significant earnings resilience post the current low point in Q2 and Q3 [4][7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations, particularly those with high performance in mid-year reports [3][7] - Recommended stocks include Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning for branded apparel, and Shenzhou International and Huayi Group for textile manufacturing [7][8]