Bond Market Outlook Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 0.5bp to 1.641% from June 30 to July 4, 2025. The smooth cross-quarter and loose funding were the main reasons for the decline. The view on the bond market remains unchanged, with the 10-year treasury bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and it is advisable to actively deploy at the upper edge of the range [1][2]. - The central bank's change in the announcement time of treasury bond transactions in June was beyond market expectations. It is a signal of active management of the funding situation, and the central bank may resume buying treasury bonds at an appropriate time, but short-term impacts on funding rates and short-term bond yields need to be considered [2]. - US Treasury bonds still have strong allocation appeal. The long-term yield may fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short-term yield is more likely to decline. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the portfolio duration [20][22]. - The Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in July, and the second half of the year may be a critical period for monetary policy adjustment. The timing of interest rate cuts depends on the inflation trajectory [34]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views - **Analysis of the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield Movement**: From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 0.5bp to 1.641%. The yield was affected by factors such as monetary policy tone, PMI data, treasury bond issuance volume, stock market trends, and chip export restrictions [1]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data and Treasury Bond Yield Trends**: In June 2025, the US unemployment rate decreased, the hourly wage growth slowed down, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased, the manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and rebounded, and the non-manufacturing PMI also improved. The yield of US Treasury bonds is still in the process of finding a trend, and the market has increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut this year [3][6]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation - **Liquidity Tracking**: The net investment in the open market from June 30 to July 4, 2025, was -137.53 billion yuan. The money market interest rate generally declined, and the issuance volume and net financing of interest rate bonds changed [39][40]. - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: The total transaction area of commercial housing increased, steel prices generally rose, LME non-ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends, and prices of commodities such as coking coal, thermal coal, and crude oil also changed [56][60][73]. 3. Weekly Review of Local Government Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, 23 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 72.139 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 81.288 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of -21.649 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive. Four provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and no province or city issued special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts [74][75][78]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local government bonds was 51.75 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 539.892 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.04%. The top three provinces with active trading were Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, and the top three active trading maturities were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally declined [88][93]. - **Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for the Month**: The issuance plans of local government bonds in various provinces and cities from July 7 to July 11, 2025, are provided [95]. 4. Weekly Review of the Credit Bond Market - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 222 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 214.267 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 136.128 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 78.139 billion yuan. The net financing amount increased by 80.122 billion yuan compared with last week. Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was -20.618 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 98.757 billion yuan [96][97]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance interest rates of various bond types changed, with the short-term financing bill increasing by 3.77bp, the medium-term note increasing by 4.70bp, the enterprise bond increasing by 0.33bp, and the corporate bond decreasing by 3.32bp [109]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total transaction amount of credit bonds this week was 660.266 billion yuan. The trading volume of short-term financing bills was 184.468 billion yuan, medium-term notes was 348.028 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 117.73 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 490.06 billion yuan, and PPN was 669.91 billion yuan [111]. - **Maturity Yields**: The maturity yields of various bond types generally declined, including national development bonds, short-term financing bills, medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds [113][114][116]. - **Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of short-term financing bills and medium-term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [119][120][125]. - **Grade Spreads**: The grade spreads of short-term financing bills and medium-term notes showed mixed trends, while those of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [130][133][136]. - **Trading Activity**: The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 361.199 billion yuan [139]. - **Subject Rating Changes**: The subject ratings or outlooks of several issuers were upgraded, including Beixin Building Materials Group Co., Ltd., Xiamen Xiangyu Group Co., Ltd., etc. [140].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250706 二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250630-20250704） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行与存量情况： 本周（20250630-20250704）银行间市场及交易所市场无新发行二级资本 债。 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，二级资本债存量余额达 46,008.35 亿元，较上周 末（20250620）减少 516.0 亿元。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250630-20250704）二级资本债周成交量合计约 1916 亿元，较 上周减少 74 亿元，成交量前三个券分别为 25 农行二级资本债 01A（BC） （193.27 亿元）、25 中行二级资本债 BC（119.50 亿元）和 25 工行二级 资本债 01BC（63.60 亿元）。 分发行主体地域来看，成交量前三为北京市、上海市和浙江省，分别约 为 1357 亿元、132 亿元和 87 亿元。 从到期收益率角度来看，截至 7 月 4 日，5Y 二级资本债中评级 AAA-、 AA+、AA 级到期收益率较上周涨跌幅分别为：-0.06B ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 继续看好保险股估值修复；期待非银中报较 好表现 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 孙婷 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600123090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -7% 1% 9% 17% 25% 33% 41% 49% 57% 65% 2024/7/8 2024/11/5 2025/3/5 2025/7/3 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《权益 ETF 系列：行情轮动较快，存 在结构性机会》 2025-07-06 《2025 年 7 月大类资产配置展望》 2025-07-03 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 06 月 30 日-2025 年 07 月 04 日）非银金融板块各子行业中仅保险行业跑赢沪深 300 指 数。保险行业上涨 1.73%，证券行业下跌 0 ...

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1.44 trillion CNY, a slight decrease of approximately 50 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% during the week, with a year-to-date increase of 26.3%[12] Market Style Performance - Large-cap value stocks outperformed with a weekly gain of 1.94%, while small-cap growth stocks lagged with a gain of only 1.14%[12] - The relative performance of small-cap stocks remained positive, indicating a sustained advantage over large-cap stocks[15] Participant Performance - The "National Team" index showed the best performance with a weekly increase of 1.97% and a year-to-date increase of 16.32%[23] - The private equity heavy index increased by 1.22% this week, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 54.71%[23] Market Sentiment - The total number of stocks that rose during the week was 4,054, with 94 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 7 stocks hit the limit down[25] - The margin trading balance increased to nearly 1.86 trillion CNY, indicating a rise in market participation[29] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included steel, building materials, and photovoltaic, driven by government policies promoting a unified national market[39] - The innovation drug sector received a boost from new measures supporting high-quality development[39] Future Events - Key upcoming events include the Samsung Unpacked product launch on July 9 and the 2025 China Automotive Forum from July 10-12[44] Strategic Focus - The report emphasizes three strategic focuses for 2025: promoting domestic circulation, achieving technological self-reliance, and expanding openness[45] - Specific areas of interest include consumer electronics, industrial automation, and AI applications[45] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions[48]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the current macroeconomic contradictions and the "prisoner's dilemma" of chaotic competition in industries, emphasizing the need for improved resource allocation efficiency and product quality enhancement [2][4] - The policy is expected to have a more significant impact on emerging industries facing overcapacity, such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, compared to traditional industries that have already undergone some consolidation [4][10] Industry Analysis - Since 2020, emerging manufacturing sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics have rapidly developed, leading to significant supply-side homogeneity and price declines, with prices for photovoltaic materials dropping nearly 90% since 2023 [4][9] - The traditional industries, such as steel and cement, have seen improved profitability and price levels compared to ten years ago, indicating that the marginal effects of the "anti-involution" policy on these sectors may be less pronounced than during the previous supply-side reforms [4][10] - The report highlights that the current economic environment and the structure of industries have evolved, making the sectors affected by overcapacity different from those ten years ago, with the focus now on new emerging industries [5][10] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to be more moderate compared to the previous supply-side reforms, focusing on guiding and regulating rather than enforcing strict capacity reductions [7][8] - The government has emphasized the importance of balancing "anti-involution" efforts with employment stability, indicating that the approach may prioritize positive guidance over aggressive capacity cuts [8][10] - Recent meetings and initiatives from government bodies indicate a strong commitment to addressing low-price competition in emerging sectors, with significant actions already taken by leading companies in the photovoltaic and automotive industries [9][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as the photovoltaic supply chain, lithium battery industry, and traditional industries like steel and cement that are experiencing overcapacity [11] - Specific recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the photovoltaic sector, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, as well as traditional industries that have shown resilience and improved profitability [11][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Accumulate" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port coal inventories are continuously decreasing, and the coal prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches, despite current weak industrial electricity demand limiting upward momentum [1][2] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.87% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow decreased by 2.68%, indicating a mixed demand-supply scenario [1][30] - The report highlights that the current coal prices are influenced by high inventory levels and weak industrial electricity demand, but with the onset of high temperatures, there is potential for further price increases [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.81% to 3472.32 points, while the coal sector index increased by 1.26% to 2580.17 points [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector reached 37.196 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.96% [10] 2. Coal Prices - Port coal prices increased by 3 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 623 yuan/ton [17] - The average price of coal at production sites remained stable, with specific prices reported for different grades of coal [17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 3.21% to 27.33 million tons, indicating a downward trend towards historical normal levels [1][33] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.01% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the coal sector [2][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The launch of the Xiaopeng G7 marks a significant advancement in assisted driving technology, entering the L3 computing power era with local VLA+VLM capabilities [9] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 94.69 billion in 2025, RMB 167.57 billion in 2026, and RMB 249.07 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 131.70%, 76.97%, and 48.64% respectively [1][10] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 349.07 million, with a staggering increase of 2,069.95% in 2026, reaching RMB 7.57 billion, and RMB 11.95 billion in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [1][10] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 30.68 billion, RMB 40.87 billion, RMB 94.69 billion, RMB 167.57 billion, and RMB 249.07 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 14.23%, 33.22%, 131.70%, 76.97%, and 48.64% [1][10] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in earnings per share (EPS), with estimates of RMB (5.44), RMB (3.04), RMB 0.18, RMB 3.97, and RMB 6.27 for the years 2023A to 2027E [1][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 367.54 in 2025, decreasing to 16.94 in 2026 and further to 10.73 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as profitability increases [1][10]

Group 1: Service Consumption Comparison - China's service consumption ratio is not low compared to countries with a GDP below $25,000, averaging 53.8% in 2019, while countries below this threshold average 46.4%[28] - In contrast, China's service consumption ratio is lower than the average of 56.3% for countries with a GDP above $25,000[28] - Overall, China's consumption rate is 39.3%, which is significantly lower than the average of 55.2% for the 43 countries analyzed[5] Group 2: Consumption Structure Insights - China's household consumption rate is composed of 21.1% service consumption and 18.2% goods consumption, both lower than the averages of 28.4% and 26.8% respectively for the 43 countries[5] - The largest discrepancy in consumption structure is in "other goods and services," where China stands at 2.4% compared to the 43-country average of 10.6%[34] - Housing services in China account for 23.4% of total consumption, with self-owned housing rental equivalence at 15.1%, higher than the 12.5% average of the 43 countries[44] Group 3: Education and Healthcare Spending - Education spending in China is significantly higher at 8.4% compared to the 43-country average of 1.4%, indicating a strong emphasis on education[50] - Healthcare spending in China is also elevated at 6.4%, compared to the average of 2.7% for the 43 countries, ranking second globally[63] - Private healthcare expenditure in China is 6.0%, surpassing the 4.6% average of the 43 countries[63] Group 4: Transportation and Entertainment Expenditure - Transportation costs in China are lower, with transportation fees at 1.7% compared to the 2.6% average of the 43 countries, attributed to lower public transport prices[74] - Entertainment consumption is notably low in China, with cultural and entertainment services at only 0.6%, compared to the 3.4% average of the 43 countries[80] - Despite low entertainment spending, tourism consumption in China is relatively high at 1.2%, slightly above the 1.1% average of the 43 countries[80]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Add" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of photoinitiators is becoming concentrated, and demand in emerging fields is booming, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] - Photoinitiators are essential raw materials for light-curing materials, accounting for 3%-5% of the total usage in these materials, but their cost constitutes 10%-15% of the overall cost of light-curing products [2] - The demand for photoinitiators is expected to grow due to the expansion of applications in both traditional and emerging fields, such as automotive parts, electronics, PCB manufacturing, and 3D printing [2] Summary by Sections Basic Information - Photoinitiators are crucial for UV coatings, inks, and adhesives, enabling the curing process through exposure to specific wavelengths of light [2] - Light-curing materials are environmentally friendly and energy-efficient alternatives to traditional solvent-based products, contributing to the reduction of VOC emissions [2] Industry Trends - The main domestic manufacturers of photoinitiators have faced production halts, which may lead to collaborative development within the industry [5] - The competitive landscape shows that China is a major producer of photoinitiators, with significant production capacities from companies like Jiu Ri New Materials and Qiangli New Materials [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side challenges include production stoppages due to safety and environmental issues at key manufacturers, which may hinder recovery efforts [5] - The demand for photoinitiators is driven by the growth of light-curing applications in new sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include Jiu Ri New Materials, Qiangli New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Gurin Technology [6]

Consumption Rate Comparison - China's overall consumption rate is low at 39.3%, compared to the average of 55.2% for 43 countries, with service consumption at 21.1% and goods consumption at 18.2%[11] - China's goods consumption rate is 8.6 percentage points lower than the average of 26.8% for 43 countries, and service consumption is 7.3 percentage points lower than the average of 28.4%[11] Service Consumption Structure - China's service consumption proportion is 53.8%, which is higher than the average of 46.4% for countries with a GDP per capita below $25,000, but lower than the average of 56.3% for those above $25,000[17] - The largest difference in consumption structure is in "other goods and services," where China is at 2.4% compared to 10.6% for 43 countries, mainly due to differences in personal care and financial service expenditures[25] Housing and Education Expenditures - Self-owned housing rental equivalence in China is 15.1%, higher than the 12.5% average for 43 countries, while actual rental expenditure is only 1.1%, significantly lower than the 3.7% average[29] - Education expenditure in China is 8.4%, far exceeding the 1.4% average for 43 countries, indicating a strong emphasis on education[39] Healthcare and Transportation - Healthcare expenditure in China is 6.4%, compared to 2.7% for 43 countries, ranking second globally, with total healthcare expenditure at 13.7%, lower than the 16.2% average[47] - Transportation expenditure is notably lower in China, with transportation costs at 1.7% compared to 2.6% for 43 countries, attributed to lower transportation prices[55] Entertainment and Dining - Cultural and entertainment services in China account for only 0.6%, significantly lower than the 3.4% average for 43 countries, while dining services are comparable at 6.4% versus 6.6%[61]