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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250704
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-04 02:17
Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic environment shows a structural differentiation in domestic demand while external demand remains stable overall [1][10] - The ECI supply index is at 50.12%, slightly down from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, showing a slight recovery [10] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been significantly revised upward due to the easing of trade tensions and the end of "import rush" behavior among wholesalers [12] Fixed Income Analysis - The report on Japanese residents' wealth allocation over 30 years highlights a shift from non-financial assets to diversified financial assets, influenced by macroeconomic cycles and demographic changes [2][15] - The low-interest-rate environment has pressured fixed-income returns, leading to a gradual increase in equity asset allocation among Japanese residents [15][16] - The introduction of policies like NISA and iDeCo has encouraged long-term investment strategies, moving away from traditional savings [15][16] Company-Specific Insights - Wuhan Tianyuan (301127) is projected to achieve net profits of 5.0/6.1/7.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of +50%/+22%/+23% [7] - China Water Affairs (00855.HK) shows stable core operational growth with a cash flow turning point, despite a forecasted decline in FY2025 net profit due to one-time impairment [7] - Juchip Technology (688049) is positioned as a leader in the smart audio SoC market, with strong growth expected in 2024, driven by increasing demand for wireless audio products [8][9] Convertible Bond Analysis - The Libor convertible bond is expected to list at a price between 128.57 and 142.73 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0028% [5][17] - The Ber 25 convertible bond is projected to list at a price between 118.12 and 131.40 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0122% [6][20]
基于宏观风险因子的大类资产轮动模型绩效月报20250630-20250704
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-04 01:33
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: "Clock + Turning Point Improvement Method" Large Asset Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines the investment clock theory with turning point improvement methods to optimize asset rotation strategies[5][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assume that the macroeconomic factors will continue their current state into the next month[23] 2. Calculate the total score of each asset based on the current state of macroeconomic risk factors[24] 3. Introduce a risk budget model with initial risk ratios for each asset: large-cap stocks: small-cap stocks: bonds: commodities: gold = 1:1:1:0.5:0.5. Adjust the risk ratios based on the total score, doubling the risk ratio for each positive score and halving it for each negative score[24] 4. Backtesting period: January 2011 - December 2023[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs excellently in terms of returns, risk control, and drawdown management, achieving nearly 10% annualized returns while controlling high-risk asset positions[27] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Macroeconomic Risk Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilize macroeconomic data and asset portfolios to construct six macroeconomic risk factors: economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, credit, and term spreads[8] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Economic Growth**: Use industrial added value year-on-year (M0000545), PMI (M0017126), and social retail sales year-on-year (M0001428). Apply HP filtering and volatility inverse weighting[8] - **Inflation**: Use PPI year-on-year (M0001227) and CPI year-on-year (M0000612). Apply HP filtering and volatility inverse weighting[8] - **Interest Rates**: Construct an equal-weighted investment portfolio using the ChinaBond Treasury Wealth Index (1-3 years) (CBA00621.CS) and the CSI Money Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI), and calculate net value year-on-year returns[8] - **Exchange Rates**: Construct an equal-weighted long-short investment portfolio using Shanghai Gold (AU9999.SGE) and London Gold Spot (SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC), and calculate net value year-on-year returns[8] - **Credit**: Construct a duration-neutral investment portfolio using the ChinaBond Corporate Bond AAA Index (CBA04231.CS) and the ChinaBond Treasury Wealth Index (CBA00631.CS), and calculate net value year-on-year returns[8] - **Term Spreads**: Construct a duration-neutral investment portfolio using the ChinaBond Medium-Short Term Bond Wealth Index (CBA00701.CS) and the ChinaBond Long Term Bond Wealth Index (CBA00801.CS), and calculate net value year-on-year returns[8] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors provide a comprehensive risk perspective by capturing multiple aspects of the macroeconomic environment[8] Model Backtesting Results "Clock + Turning Point Improvement Method" Large Asset Rotation Model - **Total Return**: 242.45%[27] - **Annualized Return**: 9.93%[27] - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.83%[27] - **Annualized Sharpe Ratio**: 1.45[27] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 6.31%[27] - **Win Rate**: 73.08%[27] Factor Backtesting Results Macroeconomic Risk Factors - **Economic Growth**: Upward[36] - **Inflation**: Downward[36] - **Interest Rates**: Downward[36] - **Credit**: Downward[36] - **Exchange Rates**: Downward[36] - **Term Spreads**: Downward[36]
道通科技(688208):越南关税落地,出海+具身智能注入增长新动能
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to mitigate the impact of tariffs through various measures, with its charging pile business entering a harvest period in overseas markets, leading to a continuous increase in orders [7] - The AI ground-air integration solution showcased at the Huawei Developer Conference (HDC 2025) highlights the company's technological maturity and its deep collaboration with Huawei Cloud, accelerating the commercialization of AI products [7] - The company's revenue and profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,251 million RMB in 2023 to 7,556 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.68% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 179.23 million RMB in 2023 to 1,183.18 million RMB in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.27 RMB in 2023 to 1.77 RMB in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 32.01 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 21,452.57 million RMB [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 119.69 based on the current price and latest diluted EPS, which is expected to decrease to 18.13 by 2027 [1][5] Operational Developments - The company has responded to the new 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam by increasing prices of its digital energy products by 7% to 10% and is planning to build a new factory in Mexico to optimize its supply chain [7] - The collaboration with Shell in Europe marks a significant breakthrough for the company's charging pile products, validating their competitiveness and local adaptability [7]
2025年7月大类资产配置展望:顺势而为,蓄势待变
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 07:33
Group 1: A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - The A-share market is expected to show a volatile adjustment pattern in July, with short-term momentum effects possibly leading to continued increases, followed by a potential adjustment phase [4][30] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to align with the A-share market's overall rhythm, but the A-share's chip structure is superior, and the Hang Seng AH premium index is reversing from a low position, reducing the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks [4][30] - In early July, the growth style is expected to outperform, while dividend stocks may experience relative volatility; however, as momentum effects fade and tariff policy uncertainties increase in mid to late July, growth style may face headwinds, allowing dividend style to shine [4][30] Group 2: US Stocks and Gold - The risk trend model indicates that the risk level of US stocks has reached a high point, predicting a volatile trend in July, with the expiration of the tariff suspension period on July 9 likely impacting the market [4][30] - The gold market is assessed to have a moderate risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation; expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, leading to a gradual strengthening of the market [4][30] - Overall, US stocks and gold are expected to maintain a reverse volatile pattern, awaiting catalysts from geopolitical events, policy changes, and US economic data releases [4][30] Group 3: Government Bonds and US Treasuries - The government bond market is supported by a slow economic recovery, maintaining confidence in policy easing, with liquidity improvement expectations becoming clearer post-quarter [4][30] - The US Treasury market is influenced by external uncertainties that elevate risk aversion, supporting a downward trend in interest rates, although supply pressures and policy fluctuations limit the extent of this decline [4][30] - The overall interest rate trend is expected to show a downward movement, influenced by domestic recovery and flexible policies alongside persistent US inflation and debt supply [4][30] Group 4: Fund Allocation Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, anticipating that the market may exhibit a volatile adjustment trend in the future, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for optimal timing [4][30]
低利率时代系列(六):日本居民财富配置30年变迁
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 07:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Japan has been in a low - even negative - interest rate environment since the bubble burst in the 1990s. The allocation of residents' wealth has evolved from non - financial assets to diversified financial assets and from conservative savings to gradually accepting risk assets, which is closely related to the macro - economic cycle, policy innovation, and population structure adjustment [1][13] - Over the 30 - year change, Japanese residents' asset allocation shows a general characteristic of "mainly conservative and steadily growing", with the proportion of non - financial assets continuously decreasing, financial assets dominated by cash, deposits, insurance, and pensions, and the proportion of equity assets slowly increasing. Low - interest rates, population aging, and policy incentives are the key factors driving the change [62] Group 3: Summary by Directory 2.1. 1990 - 2000s: Retreat of Real Estate Allocation after the Economic Bubble Burst, Shift to Low - Risk Assets - After the economic bubble burst in the 1990s, stock and real estate prices dropped sharply. The average annual growth rate of per - capita GDP fell from about 6% in the 1980s to 0.6% in the next 30 years, and the CPI average annual growth rate declined from a peak of 3.25% in 1991 to - 0.13% in 1995 [14] - Japanese residents withdrew from non - financial assets mainly in real estate and shifted to low - risk financial assets. From 1990 to 2003, the proportion of non - financial assets decreased from 63.8% to 42.7%, and the proportion of land assets decreased from 54.3% to 32.7%, while the proportion of financial assets increased to 57.3% [17] - In financial assets, the risk preference of Japanese residents decreased. Cash and deposits became the dominant part of financial asset allocation, with the proportion rising to over 50%. Insurance and pensions also became the second - largest part, with the proportion reaching 28% in 2000. The proportion of bonds decreased significantly as the long - term interest rate approached zero [21][27] 2.2. 2000 - 2010s: Intensified Aging, Increased Proportion of Insurance - Type Assets - After 2000, Japan maintained ultra - low interest rates. The central bank implemented QE and other policies. Although there was a short - term recovery in 2006, the long - term low - interest environment continued [31] - The short - term recovery of the stock index and interest rates around 2006 slightly increased the proportion of residents' risk - asset allocation, but the impact was limited. The proportion of bond - type asset allocation continued to decline [34] - Due to the zero - interest rate, the attractiveness of time deposits weakened, and the proportion of current deposits increased from 29.5% to 46.2% from 2000 to 2010 [35] - Japan faced rapid aging. The government carried out pension reform, which promoted a slight increase in the total proportion of residents' cash, deposits, insurance, and pensions in financial assets to 85% from 2000 to 2010 [38] - The proportion of pensions and insurance in financial assets remained at about 30% in the 2000s, as the number of people depositing and withdrawing pensions both increased [42] 2.3. 2010 - 2020s: Multiple Policies Drive the Recovery of Equity Investment, Diversification of Asset Allocation - In 2010, Japan introduced comprehensive monetary easing policies. In 2013, it implemented QQE, and in 2016, it launched YCC, which compressed the return space of fixed - income products and promoted an increase in the proportion of residents' equity asset allocation. The proportion of bond allocation further decreased close to 0 [47] - With policy incentives and economic stabilization, the stock market recovered. The NISA and iDeCo systems, along with innovative investment products, made residents' asset management shift from single - deposit to long - term goal - oriented investment. The proportion of equity assets in iDeCo accounts increased year by year, and the proportion of Japanese residents' equity and investment funds in financial assets rose from less than 10% before 2010 to about 15% from 2015 - 2022 [7][54] - Overseas asset allocation emerged as an important way to increase wealth. From 2015 to 2023, the total scale of Japanese public investment trusts in overseas stocks, bonds, and investment funds increased from 26.6 trillion yen to 78.7 trillion yen, and the scale of Japanese residents' foreign securities investment exceeded twice that in 2010 by 2023 [58] 2.4. Summary - The 30 - year change in Japanese residents' asset allocation is characterized by a continuous decrease in non - financial assets, dominance of cash, deposits, insurance, and pensions in financial assets, and a slow increase in the proportion of equity assets. Low - interest rates, population aging, and policy incentives are the driving factors [62]
武汉天源(301127):环保为源,能源、数字、装备打造新成长
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 06:39
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned for multi-faceted growth through environmental protection, energy, digital technology, and equipment manufacturing, with a strong focus on expanding its business model since its establishment in 2009 [8][13]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth, with total revenue projected to reach 2,766 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.34% [1][19]. - The company is actively expanding its project operations, with a significant increase in both engineering and franchise orders, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [8][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection as a Source of Growth - The company has evolved from a core business in landfill leachate treatment to a diversified model encompassing energy, digital technology, and equipment manufacturing [8][13]. - Revenue has grown from 550 million yuan in 2020 to an expected 2,766 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.05% from 2023 to 2024 [1][19]. 2. Abundant Environmental Orders and Accelerated Project Operations - The company has a strong order backlog, with engineering orders increasing from 322 million yuan in 2021 to 460 million yuan in 2024, while franchise orders surged from 806 million yuan to 3,672 million yuan in the same period [42][46]. - The company is shifting its focus from water treatment to solid waste management, particularly in the garbage incineration sector, which is becoming a new growth driver [48][53]. 3. New Growth Curves in Energy, Digital, and Equipment - The company is strategically investing in high-quality renewable energy projects, including a 2GW photovoltaic project, with 1GW already under construction [8][49]. - The company is also responding to the national "East Data West Computing" strategy by optimizing its computing power resource layout across various regions [8][39]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 500 million yuan, 608.81 million yuan, and 749.05 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50%, 21.71%, and 23.04% [1][8].
中国水务(00855):FY2025年报点评:核心运营稳健增长,现金流拐点已现
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 06:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Water Affairs (00855.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the core operational profit is steadily growing, with a cash flow turning point already evident. The decline in FY2025 performance is primarily due to one-time impairment impacts, while the core operational business remains robust [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at HKD 12,200 million, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,075 million, down 29.92% year-on-year [1][7] - The main business revenue is HKD 11,656 million, reflecting a 9.4% decline year-on-year, mainly due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [1][7] - The report details segment performance: - Urban water supply revenue is HKD 7,498 million, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly up by 0.1% [1] - Direct drinking water revenue is HKD 657 million, down 61.9%, with segment profit down 58.9% [1] - Environmental segment revenue is HKD 1,523 million, up 42.2%, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [1] - Total construction revenue is HKD 664 million, down 19.7%, with segment profit down 9.3% [1] - Property revenue is HKD 361 million, with segment profit up 16.5% [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 1,372 million for FY2026, HKD 1,387 million for FY2027, and HKD 1,415 million for FY2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times [1][7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from HKD 53.3 billion in FY2024 to HKD 34 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 20 billion for FY2026 [1][7] - The dividend per share for FY2025 is projected to remain stable at HKD 0.28, with a payout ratio of 42.5% and a dividend yield of 4.65% [1][7]
利柏转债:工业模块化制造龙头
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 05:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Libo Convertible Bond (111023.SH) started online subscription on July 3, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 750 million yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net proceeds will be used for the large - scale industrial module manufacturing project of Nantong Libote Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. [3] - The current bond floor valuation is 99.26 yuan, and the YTM is 2.23%. The conversion parity is 100.4 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 0.41%. The bond terms are average, and the total share capital dilution rate is 12.09%. [3] - It is expected that the listing price of Libo Convertible Bond on the first day will be between 128.57 and 142.73 yuan, and the winning rate is expected to be 0.0028%. It is recommended to actively subscribe. [3] - Jiangsu Libote Co., Ltd. is one of the few domestic enterprises with the ability to design and manufacture large - scale industrial modules. Since 2019, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent have shown a steady growth trend. The company's revenue mainly comes from engineering services and industrial module design and manufacturing, and the product structure proportion has been optimized year by year. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - **Issuance and Subscription Schedule**: The issuance and subscription of Libo Convertible Bond follow a series of schedules from July 1 to July 9, 2025, including announcements, roadshows, priority allotment, lottery draws, and payment confirmations. [9] - **Basic Terms**: The convertible bond has a code of 111023.SH, a term of 6 years from July 3, 2025, to July 2, 2031, a face value of 100 yuan, and a coupon rate ranging from 0.10% to 2.00% from the first to the sixth year. The initial conversion price is 12.14 yuan/share, and the conversion period is from January 9, 2026, to July 2, 2031. The terms for downward revision, redemption, and repurchase are also specified. [10] - **Use of Raised Funds**: The 750 million yuan of raised funds will be used for the large - scale industrial module manufacturing project of Nantong Libote Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. [11] - **Bond and Equity Indicators**: The pure bond value is 99.26 yuan, the pure bond premium rate is 0.74%, the conversion parity is 100.41 yuan, and the parity premium rate is - 0.41%. The pure bond YTM is 2.23%. [11] 3.2. Investment Subscription Suggestion - **Estimated Listing Price**: Based on comparable targets and empirical results, considering the good bond floor protection, rating, and scale attractiveness of Libo Convertible Bond, it is estimated that the conversion premium rate on the first - day of listing will be around 35%, and the corresponding listing price will be between 128.57 and 142.73 yuan. [14][15] - **Estimated Winning Rate**: It is estimated that the original shareholder priority allotment ratio is 70.72%, and the winning rate for online investors is 0.0028%. [18] 3.3. Analysis of the Underlying Stock's Fundamental Aspects 3.3.1. Financial Data Analysis - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Since 2019, the company's revenue has been growing steadily, with a compound growth rate of 23.02% from 2019 - 2024. In 2024, the revenue reached 3.493 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent has also been rising year by year, with a compound growth rate of 17.48% from 2019 - 2024. In 2024, it reached 240 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38.73%. [21] - **Revenue Structure**: The company's revenue mainly comes from engineering services and industrial module design and manufacturing. From 2022 - 2024, the proportion of engineering service revenue in the main business revenue was 77.02%, 84.51%, and 79.03% respectively, and the proportion of industrial module design and manufacturing business revenue was 22.54%, 15.26%, and 20.73% respectively. [23] - **Profitability and Cost Ratios**: The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin reached a peak in 2022 and then declined year by year. The sales expense ratio is basically the same as the industry average, and the financial expense ratio and management expense ratio have remained stable in recent years. [25] 3.3.2. Company Highlights - **Technical and Manufacturing Capabilities**: The company is one of the few domestic enterprises with the ability to design and manufacture large - scale industrial modules. It has accumulated a lot of design technology and experience, and has leading module manufacturing technology and a large - scale production base. [29] - **Business Qualifications**: The company has necessary qualifications for international and domestic business. In the international market, it has certifications such as "ASME U" and "ASME S". In the domestic market, it has relevant design and manufacturing qualifications for pressure pipes and pressure vessels. [30]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250703
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 04:04
Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic indicators show a structural differentiation in domestic demand while external demand remains stable overall. The focus of monetary policy is still on improving the efficiency of fund utilization [1][5] - The ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points. The investment index is at 49.97%, up 0.01 percentage points, and the consumption index is at 49.74%, down 0.02 percentage points [5] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been significantly revised upward, maintaining expectations for the Fed's first rate cut in Q3 and two cuts throughout the year [1][7] Fixed Income - The report compares the holding structures and strategies of innovation bonds in China and overseas markets, highlighting that Chinese institutional investors prioritize liquidity in their selection strategies, while overseas investors adopt more aggressive strategies [2][10] - U.S. institutional investors favor duration strategies, while Japanese investors prioritize both duration and coupon strategies. European investors show a balanced approach across all strategies [10][12] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Derlin Holdings (01709.HK), which is positioned as a leading financial service platform for family offices in the Asia-Pacific region. The company has expanded its wealth management services and is expected to see significant growth in its family office business [4][14] - Derlin Holdings' projected net profits for the fiscal years 2026-2028 are estimated at HKD 1.38 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.65 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.81%, 11.18%, and 7.84% [4][15] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its financial services, aiming to democratize access to wealth management for a broader range of investors [14][15]
伯25转债:汽车制动系统国产龙头
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-03 02:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Bo 25 Convertible Bond (113696.SH) started online subscription on July 1, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 2.802 billion yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net proceeds will be used for multiple projects and to supplement working capital [3]. - The current bond floor valuation is 98.81 yuan, with a YTM of 2.16%. The conversion parity is 96.64 yuan, and the parity premium rate is 3.47%. The convertible bond terms are average, and the total share capital dilution rate is 8.10%, with relatively small dilution pressure on the equity [3][12][13]. - It is expected that the listing price of the Bo 25 Convertible Bond on the first day will be between 118.12 - 131.40 yuan, and the subscription success rate is expected to be 0.0122%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [3][14][15]. - Since 2019, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent have steadily increased, with a compound growth rate of 25.78% and 24.66% respectively from 2019 - 2024. As of Q1 2025, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to the parent reached 2.638 billion yuan and 270 million yuan respectively [3][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Basic Information - **Issuance and Subscription Schedule**: The issuance and subscription of the Bo 25 Convertible Bond started on July 1, 2025, with a series of scheduled events from T - 2 to T + 4 [9]. - **Basic Terms**: The convertible bond has a 6 - year term, an AA/AA credit rating, an initial conversion price of 52.42 yuan/share, and various条款 such as the downward revision clause, redemption clause, and put - back clause [10]. - **Use of Raised Funds**: The raised funds will be used for six projects, including the R & D and industrialization of electronic mechanical brakes, and to supplement working capital, with a total planned investment of 3.3694905 billion yuan and a proposed investment of raised funds of 2.802 billion yuan [11]. - **Bond and Equity Indicators**: The pure bond value is 98.81 yuan, the pure bond premium rate is 1.2%, the conversion parity is 96.64 yuan, and the parity premium rate is 3.47% [12][13]. 3.2 Investment Subscription Suggestion - **Expected Listing Price**: Based on comparable targets and an empirical model, it is expected that the listing price of the Bo 25 Convertible Bond on the first day will be between 118.12 - 131.40 yuan, with an expected conversion premium rate of around 29% [14][15][16]. - **Expected Subscription Success Rate**: The expected priority subscription ratio of original shareholders is 65.55%, and the expected online subscription success rate is 0.0122% [17]. 3.3 Positive Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Data Analysis - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Since 2019, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent have shown a steady growth trend, with a compound growth rate of 25.78% and 24.66% respectively from 2019 - 2024. In 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent reached 1.209 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.60%. As of Q1 2025, the operating income and net profit attributable to the parent were 2.638 billion yuan and 270 million yuan respectively [3][19]. - **Business Composition**: From 2022 to 2024, the company's main business revenue accounted for over 96% of the operating income, showing a high proportion and a rapid growth trend [20]. - **Profitability and Cost**: The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin have slowly declined, while the sales expense ratio has remained low. The financial expense ratio is lower than the industry average and negative, and the management expense ratio is significantly lower than the industry average [25]. 3.3.2 Company Highlights - **Technological Innovation and Product Development**: The company has the independent forward - development ability for mechanical braking systems, mechanical steering systems, and intelligent electronic control systems, and has mastered the independent intellectual property rights of a full range of chassis braking system products [25]. - **Awards and Honors**: In 2024, the company won multiple awards and honors, and was also included in the "Top 100 Chinese Auto Parts Enterprises" and "Top 100 Anhui Manufacturing Enterprises" [34].