Core Insights - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to increased volatility in the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, although a long-term upward trend remains intact [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be crucial for market sentiment, with potential for stronger recovery if policies exceed expectations [1] - In the medium to long term, the report maintains a positive outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, driven by global monetary easing, the unstoppable trend of the AI industry, and anticipated improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings in Q1 of the following year [1][6] Market Performance - Over the past two weeks, developed markets have declined by 0.9%, while emerging markets have risen by 3.0% [5] - The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.6%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.0% [5][11] - The report notes that the materials sector led the gains, with significant inflows into non-essential consumer goods and information technology, while the telecommunications sector experienced outflows [5] Economic Data - Mixed macroeconomic data is presented, with positive indicators such as a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls and an ISM manufacturing index of 49.1, which is better than expected [3][6] - However, there are concerns with a 32,000 decrease in ADP employment and a services PMI drop to 50, indicating potential economic headwinds [3][6] Trade Relations - The report discusses the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which could further complicate market dynamics [2] - It also mentions China's retaliatory measures, including export controls on rare earth materials, which could impact various sectors [2] Investment Trends - The report indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven sectors due to tariff concerns and market volatility, with a notable increase in gold ETF holdings [6][35] - The report highlights that technology, materials, and healthcare sectors are seeing the most inflows, while utilities and financials are experiencing outflows [7][39] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming data releases include the US CPI on October 15 and unemployment claims on October 16, which will be critical for assessing economic conditions [8][42] - Significant corporate earnings reports are also expected, including those from major companies like Haikang Weishi and Cambricon [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the orderly promotion of green electricity direct connection development in Shandong and the official commercial operation of the "Ningdian into Hunan" project, which enhances electricity supply capacity [5][10]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in hydropower and thermal power during the peak summer season, recommending specific companies for investment [2]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of nuclear power, with multiple approvals for new units, and the recovery of asset quality in green energy [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index increased by 3.45% during the week of October 6-10, 2025, with notable gains in various sub-sectors such as thermal power and gas [10]. - The top-performing stocks included Dazhong Public Utilities (+21.1%) and Shanghai Electric (+18.7%) [10]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reached 5.86 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with growth in all sectors [14]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation for the same period was 5.47 trillion kWh, reflecting a 1.3% year-on-year increase, with varying performance across different energy sources [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average electricity purchase price in June 2025 was 389 RMB/MWh, down 1% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month [35]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of October 10, 2025, the price of thermal coal was 705 RMB/ton, a decrease of 17.92% year-on-year [43]. 2.5. Hydropower - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was normal, with inflow and outflow rates significantly higher than previous years [54]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - Eleven new nuclear units were approved in 2024, indicating a positive growth trajectory for the sector [2]. 3. Key Announcements - The report includes significant announcements related to the development of green electricity projects and the operational status of major power transmission projects [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, indicating a continued bullish sentiment despite a week-on-week decline in passenger car sales of 28.2% [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom to the dawn of automotive intelligence, with significant investment opportunities in AI smart vehicles and robotics [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in the automotive sector, particularly in the development of Robotaxi and Robovan applications, as well as the C-end vehicle sales perspective [4][5]. - The report anticipates a 4.1% year-on-year increase in domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles, projecting sales of 23.7 million units in 2025 [51][52]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of October, the compulsory insurance for passenger vehicles reached 463,000 units, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 28.2% but a month-on-month increase of 28.4% [2]. - The best-performing segments included SW commercial passenger vehicles (+7.4%), while SW passenger vehicles and SW auto parts saw declines of 1.0% and 1.7%, respectively [2][4]. Industry Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with A-H shares ranking 26th and 17th respectively [8][9]. - Key developments included leadership changes at XPeng Motors and significant sales performance from Yutong Bus, which exceeded expectations [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: AI smart vehicles, robotics, and traditional vehicle segments with strong market positions [4][5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include XPeng Motors, Ideal Automotive, and Yutong Bus, among others [69][70]. Market Forecast - The report forecasts a significant increase in the penetration of L3 and L2+ intelligent driving technologies, with L3 expected to reach a 20% penetration rate among new energy vehicles by 2025 [54][55]. - The heavy truck market is projected to see a 24.9% year-on-year increase in new registrations, with total wholesale sales expected to reach 1.05 million units in 2025 [56][57]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including XPeng Motors, Ideal Automotive, and Yutong Bus, emphasizing their strong growth potential in the evolving automotive landscape [69][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to see a gradual improvement in profitability, particularly in the fiberglass segment, as supply pressures ease and demand remains resilient [6][15] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand policies and the potential for recovery in the housing market, which could positively impact the demand for home improvement materials [17] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials - Fiberglass profitability is anticipated to improve in the medium term as supply shocks diminish and industry price stabilization efforts gain traction [15] - The cement market is experiencing a temporary decline in demand due to seasonal factors, but a rebound is expected as supply-side discipline strengthens [20][21] - The average cement price in China is currently 349.2 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and a significant drop of 53.2 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [21][22] 2. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the construction materials sector has shown resilience despite external uncertainties such as trade tensions, with government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption expected to support recovery [17] - The report emphasizes the need for industry self-discipline to manage supply and maintain profitability, particularly in the cement sector [14][20] 3. Market Performance - The construction materials sector outperformed the broader market indices, with a weekly gain of 2.66% compared to declines in the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [5] - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry policies take effect [14][17] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and policy support [14][18] - It also highlights the potential for growth in companies involved in advanced materials and technology applications, particularly in the context of domestic demand recovery [6][17]

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that the overseas market during the National Day holiday was dominated by two major events: the U.S. government shutdown and the unexpected election of Kishi Nobuo as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. The government shutdown led to increased risk aversion, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to "blindly cut rates" rose due to the suspension of key economic data releases. This, combined with expectations of "loose fiscal and monetary" policies in Japan, drove gold and Bitcoin to new historical highs [1][6]. - Looking ahead, the report suggests that the global political rightward shift, along with loose fiscal and monetary trends, indicates greater uncertainty from geopolitical friction and unsustainable global government debt. The probability of the economy transitioning from a soft landing to moderate overheating has increased. In terms of market strategy, it is expected that gold will outperform copper and stocks in the medium term [1][6]. Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Funi Energy Convertible Bonds, with a total issuance scale of 3.802 billion yuan. The net proceeds will be used for significant energy projects. The initial bond price is estimated to be between 123.06 and 136.85 yuan, with a predicted subscription rate of 0.0129% [3][12]. Industry Insights - The report notes that Shoucheng Holdings has launched the first permanent robot technology experience store in Beijing, which is expected to facilitate the commercialization of robots in the consumer market. The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 590 million, 770 million, and 930 million Hong Kong dollars, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 23, and 19 times. The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, considering its stable main business and deepening layout in humanoid robots [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory push for high-quality development in health insurance and the implementation of "reporting and operation integration" in non-auto insurance, which is expected to improve industry profitability [1][4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent two trading days (October 9-10, 2025), all non-bank financial sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the securities sector rising by 0.55%, insurance by 0.72%, and diversified finance by 1.68%, while the overall non-bank financial sector increased by 0.71% [9][10] Non-Bank Financial Subsector Views Securities - Trading volume has increased year-on-year, with the average daily trading volume for October 2025 reaching CNY 30,222 billion, a 35.10% increase compared to October 2024 [14] - The margin trading balance as of October 9, 2025, was CNY 24,455 billion, up 58.00% year-on-year [14] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.4x for 2025 [19] Insurance - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in health insurance, aiming for a multi-tiered health insurance market by 2030 [21] - Health insurance premiums totaled CNY 7,598 billion from January to August 2025, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year growth [25] - The implementation of "reporting and operation integration" in non-auto insurance is expected to enhance profitability, with total premiums for non-auto insurance reaching CNY 6,195 billion, accounting for 50.8% of total premiums [24] Diversified Finance - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach CNY 29.56 trillion by the end of 2024, a 23.58% increase year-on-year, although profits declined significantly [32] - The futures market recorded a trading volume of 839 million contracts and a turnover of CNY 65.08 trillion in August 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 13.98% and 21.38%, respectively [35] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and diversified finance, recommending companies such as China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [48]

Economic Indicators - As of October 12, 2025, the ELI index is -0.64%, down 0.20 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential seasonal rebound in new loans for September[2] - The average growth of new loans from September 2022 to September 2024 was 2.12 trillion yuan, while in September 2024, only 1.59 trillion yuan was added, reflecting a policy shift away from scale[2] - The expected new loans for September 2025 are around 1.60 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of approximately 200 billion yuan[2] Government Financing and Social Financing - In September 2025, government net financing, including national and local government bonds, was 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51 trillion yuan[2] - The expected social financing scale for September 2025 is 3.3 trillion yuan, with a month-end growth rate potentially declining to 8.6%[2] - The government is expected to implement "steady growth" measures in fiscal and monetary policies in the fourth quarter to counteract the decline in social financing growth[2] Supply and Demand Indicators - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous period, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[3] - The industrial production recovery post-holiday is slower than last year, with the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires dropping significantly[20] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of September were 97,631 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4,864 units, but the retail market for passenger cars grew by 6.0% year-on-year in September[28] Investment and Real Estate - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 25.22% week-on-week, indicating pressure on growth due to high base effects[34] - The supply of land in 100 major cities increased by 23.63% week-on-week, suggesting ongoing investment activity despite the real estate market's challenges[34] Risks and Policy Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains a significant risk factor for the economy[4] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, from September 26 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% to 1.775%. Considering the decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the fact that the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The interest - rate decline days in the bond market due to the second "tariff war" may be less than a week, and investors are advised to trade cautiously, maintaining the view that interest rates have a ceiling and a floor this year [10][15]. - After the release of a series of US data in October, including EIA crude oil inventory, consumer credit change, etc., the current main market trend still revolves around computing power and electricity. Monetary policy expectations in countries such as the US and Japan may extend the bubble period and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while increasing inflation expectations. The increase in US crude oil inventory and the weakness in consumer credit and consumer confidence may suppress oil prices and put the Fed in a "dilemma" in terms of interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Trading Opportunities Amid the Escalation of the Sino - US Trade War - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% on September 26 to 1.775%. During the week, factors such as policy announcements, PMI data, and central bank operations affected the yield fluctuations. The decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the sub - par manufacturing PMI suggest that the economic recovery foundation needs repair, and the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The second "tariff war" has led to a decline in interest rates, but the duration may be less than a week [10][11][15]. 3.1.2 Future Changes in US Treasury Yields After Data Release - The current market is sensitive to external disturbances. The main trend still focuses on computing power and electricity. The increase in US crude oil inventory, weak consumer credit, and low consumer confidence may suppress oil prices. The Fed is in a "dilemma" regarding interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from September 29 to October 10, 2025, the total net investment was - 7281 billion yuan. The money - market interest rates showed certain changes. The issuance and yields of interest - rate bonds also had corresponding fluctuations [28][30][33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices declined comprehensively, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose. The total trading area of commercial housing decreased. The VIX fear index led the gains, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the losses. The US Treasury yields declined overall, and the dollar index led the gains while the yen led the losses [51][52][65]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the week from September 29 to October 10, 2025, 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 825.28 billion yuan, including 566.38 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 159.69 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 99.20 billion yuan in new general bonds. The net financing amount was 386.37 billion yuan. Seven provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds, and no local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of such bonds has reached 19,649.46 billion yuan. The total early - redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 5.00 billion yuan, all from Chongqing [81][84][88]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The current stock of local government bonds is 53.49 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 771.54 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Guangdong, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally increased [91][94][95]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - Relevant local government bond issuance plans are presented in the form of a chart, but specific numerical details are not further described in the text [97]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 90 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 771.59 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1,865.20 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 1,093.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,859.60 billion yuan compared to last week. By type, urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 554.32 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of - 539.29 billion yuan [99][100]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds was 1.6622%, a decrease of 2.73bp; the issuance interest rate of medium - term notes was 2.2088%, a decrease of 3.95bp; and the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was 2.1900%, a decrease of 4.16bp [108]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 1,604.13 billion yuan. By rating, the trading volume of AAA - rated bonds was the largest, reaching 1,113.18 billion yuan [110]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds declined comprehensively. The yields of short - term financing and medium - term notes and corporate bonds generally declined, while the yields of urban investment bonds generally increased [111][113][116]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally narrowed, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [120][121][126]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened [130][132][136]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds in each category are listed, including short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, etc. Most of the highly - traded bonds are AAA - rated [142]. 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings of two issuers were upgraded this week, namely Xiangtan Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Jiangyou Hongfei Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. There were no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks [145].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251012 如何看待本轮特朗普的关税威胁？ 2025 年 10 月 12 日 ◼ 海外政治：特朗普再度威胁对华加征关税，未来关注双方相关反制措施 和高规格会晤进展。美东时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体上表示因 不满稀土管制相关措施，美国将自 11 月 1 日起对华额外加征 100%关 税，并对关键软件实行出口管制。市场因此再度选择避险交易：美股美 铜美油、美债利率、美元指数均下跌，黄金震荡向上。从背景上看，本 次推动特朗普再度升级关税威胁的原因包括：①外部压力暂时缓解。10 月 9 日巴以双方达成停火协议，美国在外部的地缘政治冲突压力有所缓 解，这使得特朗普能够将更多精力转移到中美贸易这一重要外交事务 上。②内部矛盾需要转移。当前美国政府仍处于停摆状态，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等主流博彩机构均预期停摆时长将延续至 10 月 15 日之后。 这意味着美国军人的工资将延期发放。因此特朗普需要将内部矛盾转移 至外部以缓和国内局势可能迎来的不稳定因素。从影响上看，①经济方 面，由于此前对等关税的威胁，中美贸易已在今年 1-9 月完成抢跑，叠 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Views - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw a significant increase in domestic travel, with 888 million trips taken, a 16% increase compared to the previous year, and total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, up 15% [3][8] - Strong travel and family visit intentions were noted, with self-driving trips accounting for 80% of travel during the holiday period [12] - The report highlights a continued increase in inbound and outbound tourism, with a 11.5% year-on-year growth in border inspection personnel [14] - Key tourist attractions experienced a rise in visitor numbers, with notable increases at Huangshan, Jiuhua Mountain, and Emei Mountain, suggesting robust demand in the tourism sector [15] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Views This Week - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the tourism sector during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with significant increases in both travel numbers and spending [8] 2. Market Review This Week - The retail index saw a decline of 0.40% from October 9 to October 10, while the overall market performance varied across different indices [16][18] 3. Valuation Table of Sub-Industries - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies within the retail sector, providing insights into market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings [22][23]