Macro Economic Insights - The cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises from January to August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, improving from a previous decline of 1.7% [4] - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises improved slightly with a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.3%, which is an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value [5] - The profit growth rate in August saw a significant recovery of 21.9 percentage points to 20.4%, marking three consecutive months of marginal improvement [5] Industry Performance - The profit structure indicates an increase in the proportion of public utilities, with the profit share of upstream mining, midstream equipment, downstream consumption, and public utilities being 28.4%, 39.2%, 21%, and 11.4% respectively [7] - The cumulative profit of upstream industries improved by 3.8 percentage points to -9.1% year-on-year, with significant improvements in black metallurgy and non-ferrous metallurgy [7] - The "anti-involution" industries saw a larger profit improvement, with cumulative profit growth of 3.8 percentage points to -4.3% year-on-year, while non-anti-involution industries improved by 2.8 percentage points to 0.9% [7] Real Estate Sector - New housing transaction area increased month-on-month, with 20 cities showing a rise in second-hand housing transaction area [44] - The Shanghai "Good House" regulation was implemented to enhance residential quality through 17 specific measures [44][45] - The land transaction area increased year-on-year, with a decrease in premium rates, indicating a stabilizing real estate market [46] Coal Industry - The price of thermal coal rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak price of 706 yuan per ton [52] - Coking coal prices have shown a significant rebound, with a cumulative increase of 66.48% from the low of 719 yuan [52] - The report predicts that thermal coal prices will continue to recover, with a target price of around 750 yuan, while coking coal prices are expected to follow a market-driven model [53] Gaming and AI Applications - The gaming industry is experiencing a high growth cycle, with stable issuance of game licenses and a rich reserve of new games [49] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost game revenue and rankings due to promotional activities [49] - Major tech companies are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, which is anticipated to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications across various sectors [50] M&A Activity - The "M&A Six Guidelines" have led to a significant increase in merger and acquisition activities, with 163 new transactions disclosed since its implementation [38][39] - The focus of M&A activities has shifted towards industrial integration and new productivity acquisitions, particularly in the hard tech sector [39] - The report highlights that the new M&A projects have shown profitability effects, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases post-merger [39] Small and Mid-Cap Stocks - Companies such as Tianyouwei, Hongjing Optoelectronics, and Huaxin Precision are highlighted as key players in their respective fields, with strong growth potential [33][34][36] - Tianyouwei is noted for its high gross margin of 37.19% and strong international sales growth [33] - Hongjing Optoelectronics is expanding into new markets such as AI hardware and industrial inspection, with a significant portion of revenue coming from new business areas [34][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry index decreased by 4.32% in the week of September 22-26, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.21% [6][13] - The report highlights the strong performance of certain companies, such as Jihong Co., which is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55-65% [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [7][31] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2281.69 points, ranking 29th among 31 primary industries [6][13] - The brand cosmetics sector experienced the smallest decline of 1.31% during the week, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 26.87% [18][20] Company Performance Highlights - Jihong Co. is expected to achieve a net profit of 209-222 million yuan for Q3 2025, driven by its dual business model of cross-border e-commerce and packaging [4][26] - Old Puhuang reported a revenue of 12.354 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 250.9%, with a net profit of 2.268 billion yuan, up 285.8% [36][37] - Chao Hong Ji achieved a revenue of 4.102 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.3% [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the gold and jewelry sector, such as Old Puhuang and Chao Hong Ji, which are expected to benefit from emotional consumption trends [7][31] - Emphasize the importance of offline retail companies that adapt to consumer trends, recommending companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [31][32] - Highlight the potential of domestic beauty brands, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya, which are positioned well in the high-end market [32][33]

Policy Insights - The "M&A Six Guidelines" initiated a new round of merger and acquisition policy relaxation, enhancing resource allocation functions in M&A activities[3] - Regulatory bodies and local governments have actively supported M&A, with regions like Shenzhen and Shanghai issuing specific policies to facilitate corporate mergers[4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) revised the major asset restructuring management measures, introducing five key areas of regulation to support M&A activities[3] Market Performance - Since the implementation of the "M&A Six Guidelines," the number of disclosed M&A transactions has reached 163, more than doubling compared to the previous year[4] - Nearly 70% of M&A activities post-guidelines focus on industrial mergers, with hard technology sectors like semiconductors and advanced manufacturing leading the wave[4] - The average time from acceptance to registration for major asset restructuring projects has decreased to 22 days, indicating improved efficiency in the review process[29] Investment Trends - The top ten A-share companies with the highest growth in 2025 have all engaged in M&A activities, showcasing the profitability of such transactions[4] - New payment methods and flexible transaction designs have emerged in M&A proposals, reflecting a trend towards more market-oriented valuation methods[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include changes in the macroeconomic environment, fluctuations in IPO policies, and adjustments in refinancing and M&A regulations[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, and the "Good Housing" regulations in Shanghai have been implemented. The tracked 68 cities show a month-on-month increase in new housing transactions, with 20 cities also experiencing a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions. The land transaction area has increased year-on-year, and the premium rate has decreased month-on-month. The issuance of domestic credit bonds has increased month-on-month. The report suggests that with various policies promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, the overall market is moving towards stabilization, although slight fluctuations in housing prices may still occur [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Urban Old Community Renovation Progress - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that from January to August 2025, 21,700 urban old communities were newly started, achieving 86.8% of the annual target of 25,000 [6][14]. 2. Sales Side: New Housing Transaction Area Month-on-Month Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, the transaction area of commercial residential properties in 68 cities was 2.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22% but a month-on-month increase of 27%. The cumulative transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 88.46 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [19][32]. 3. Investment Side: Land Transaction Area Year-on-Year Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 22.71 million square meters, and the transaction area was 24.31 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 32%. The premium rate for land transactions was 1% [41][44]. 4. Financing Side: Domestic Credit Bond Issuance Scale Month-on-Month Growth - In the 39th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 14.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203% and a month-on-month increase of 140%. The cumulative issuance scale of credit bonds is 311.55 billion yuan, which is basically flat year-on-year [52][56]. 5. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index fell by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.07%. The report highlights the performance of individual stocks within the real estate sector [58][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to experience a high prosperity cycle driven by stable game license approvals and upcoming holiday promotions, with a recommendation to increase allocations in gaming stocks [4] - AI applications are gaining momentum with significant investments in infrastructure, suggesting a strong growth trajectory for AI-related companies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data Overview - "Plants vs. Zombies 3" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "Honor of Kings" leads the iOS revenue chart as of September 27, 2025 [11][15] - The domestic client game market revenue in August saw a year-on-year increase of 17% [29] Industry News Overview - Nvidia's investment of $100 billion in OpenAI aims to enhance AI infrastructure, indicating a robust future for AI applications [30] - In September, 156 game licenses were issued, with major companies like Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo receiving approvals [33] Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xindong Company, Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue, Giant Network, and Tencent Holdings for potential investment opportunities in the gaming sector [4] - For AI applications, companies like Huizhong Technology, Kuaishou, and NetEase Cloud Music are highlighted as key players to watch [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of the first public REIT in Northeast China and the strong performance of consumption REITs in the past month indicate a positive trend in the market. The REITs market is expected to benefit from the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 39th week of 2025, the CSI REITs closing index was 831.45, up 6% year-on-year but down 0.83% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1064.42, up 12.63% year-on-year but down 0.65% month-on-month. Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 9.92%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 32.61%, resulting in an excess return of -22.7% [7][16][20]. Weekly Tracking - The trading volume of the REITs market reached 388 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.92%, with a transaction value of 1.86 billion yuan, down 1.06% year-on-year. The turnover rate for the period was 1.63%, down 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [25][30]. Sector Performance - In the 39th week, the weekly performance of various REIT sectors showed declines: affordable housing down 1.49%, environmental down 0.09%, highway down 1.73%, industrial park down 0.65%, warehousing and logistics down 0.43%, energy down 0.60%, and consumption down 1.43%. However, the monthly performance showed consumption REITs with a cumulative increase of 1.56% [35][50].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak of 706 yuan per ton observed recently. The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [3][4] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery due to supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand shifts [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices. The current price has surpassed the second target price, which is around 700 yuan per ton. Future expectations suggest a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan per ton by 2025, with a fourth target price around 860 yuan per ton [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's target prices [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for rebound, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand expectations [5][14] - Four main lines of coal stock selection are recommended: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.49, and the PB ratio is 1.26, ranking low among all A-share industries [8][30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments have jointly issued the "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which aims to stabilize growth and promote transformation. Key goals include achieving over 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 and establishing "zero external electricity, zero carbon emissions" demonstration factories [3][4] - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a high retail business ratio), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion into coatings and waterproof sectors) [3][4] - The cement sector is expected to benefit from the "Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Special Action Plan" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, which aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials index fell by 2.11% in the week from September 22 to September 26, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 13.80%, while the building materials index increased by 10.96%, underperforming by 2.84 percentage points [4][11] - The average PE ratio for the building materials sector is 28.92 times, ranking it 15th from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.32 times, ranking it 8th from the bottom [17][21] Cement Sector - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 287.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio reached 70.17%, up by 5.06 percentage points [22][23] - Regional price trends show increases in various areas, with the highest increase in the southwest region at 7.67% [22][23] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of September 26, 2025, was 1283.80 yuan/ton, up by 6.19% from the previous period. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.60%, with a total of 53.29 million weight boxes [73][75] - The price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 125.00 yuan/weight box [77] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranges from 3400 to 4000 yuan/ton, with variations depending on the region and specific product type [6][4] Consumer Building Materials - As of September 26, 2025, the price of crude oil was 72.09 USD/barrel, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.76%. The price of asphalt remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton [6][4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant performance of the North Exchange (北交所) following the "9.24" policy, with the North Specialized and New Index and North 50 Index increasing by 210.02% and 163.26% respectively from September 23, 2024, to September 24, 2025 [2][12][14] - The report identifies four distinct market phases since the implementation of the "9.24" policy, with the first phase showing the highest growth in the North Specialized and New Index and North 50 Index, at 143.23% and 134.9% respectively [14][18] - The report notes that small-cap companies (market cap below 2 billion) and the information technology sector experienced the largest average gains during the first market phase, with increases of 158.91% and 256.70% respectively [20][21] Group 2 - The second and third market phases (January 13, 2025 - March 18, 2025 and April 7, 2025 - May 21, 2025) also saw significant growth in the North Specialized and New Index, with increases of 53.59% and 45.72% respectively, driven by advancements in AI and technology sectors [22][29] - The report indicates that the fourth market phase (August 1, 2025 - September 24, 2025) was characterized by a rebound in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market, with the North Specialized and New Index increasing by 13.88% [39][42] - The report emphasizes that the chemical new materials sector and companies with market caps over 10 billion showed the highest average gains during the fourth phase, with increases of 19.40% and 10.60% respectively [42][44] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the current valuation landscape, noting that the average TTM PE ratios for the North Exchange, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and Growth Enterprise Market are 17.62X, 32.93X, and 25.33X respectively, indicating that the North Exchange remains undervalued [18][23] - The report highlights that the North Exchange's liquidity has decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 22.162 billion yuan, down 20.71% from the previous week [48][50] - The report categorizes the five major sectors within the North Exchange, with TTM PE ratios for high-end equipment, information technology, chemical new materials, consumer services, and biomedicine being 42.53X, 102.55X, 47.51X, 54.90X, and 44.06X respectively [62][64]

Group 1: Titanium Industry Overview - Titanium is recognized as the "third metal" due to its lightweight, high strength, and excellent corrosion resistance, making it essential in various industries such as chemical energy, aerospace, and biomedical [3][11][20] - China's titanium processing material production increased from 48,600 tons in 2015 to 159,100 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.97% [17][18] - The demand for titanium in the chemical sector accounted for 51.23% in 2023, followed by aerospace at 19.79%, indicating a growing market potential as costs decrease [20][26] Group 2: Company Insights - Tiangong Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials, focusing on high-end products such as plates, pipes, and wires [22] - The company has been recognized for its technological advancements and has been designated as a provincial-level enterprise technology center in Jiangsu [22][24] - Tiangong's products are increasingly being applied in consumer electronics, 3D printing, and biomedical fields, reflecting the expanding use of titanium materials [20][22] Group 3: Chemical New Materials Sector Performance - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a decline of 5.68% in the week of September 22 to September 26, 2025, with only the professional technical services sector showing an increase [28][29] - Notable stock performances included Guangxin Technology (+9.01%), Silane Technology (+5.14%), and Ruihua Technology (+3.76%), indicating some resilience within the sector [32][35] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, with various sub-industries, including battery materials and rubber and plastic products, also experiencing declines [28][29]