Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown impressive sales performance in May 2025, with bus sales reaching 5,919 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, and production of 5,528 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.0% [6] - The domestic bus market is currently in a recovery phase, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old vehicles, which is expected to drive growth in public transport buses [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in the export of new energy buses [6] - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its comprehensive sales, service, and parts network, as well as its focus on high-end product development [6] - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 48.0 billion, 54.4 billion, and 62.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 16% [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 37.2 billion in 2024 to 53.8 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 4.116 billion in 2024 to 6.288 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 22.9% in 2024 to 24.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 14.18 in 2024 to 9.47 in 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the performance of the electronic industry indices, with the semiconductor packaging and testing sector showing the best performance with an increase of 8.32% [4] - The company Mu Xi has become a leading domestic high-performance GPU manufacturer after five years of development, with significant advancements in its product offerings and market presence [16] - The company has successfully transitioned from research and development to production and sales, establishing a comprehensive business model [18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - Mu Xi has undergone three development phases, focusing on GPU technology and building a robust team, leading to the establishment of a strong technological foundation [16] - The company launched its first intelligent computing inference chip, the Xi Si N100, in January 2022, which was followed by mass production in April 2023 [18] Section 2: Product Development and Revenue Growth - The product matrix has expanded significantly, with the Xi Si N series and Xi Yun C series GPUs entering mass production, contributing to rapid revenue growth [19] - The core revenue source is the Xi Yun C series training and inference GPU products, which accounted for 30.09%, 68.99%, and 97.55% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively [6] Section 3: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Mu Xi has established a deep ecosystem and commercial layout, delivering nine intelligent computing clusters that cover various regions and applications [21] - The company has attracted significant investment from both state-owned and market-oriented institutions, enhancing its financial strength and market position [10] Section 4: Future Prospects - The company is focusing on enhancing its domestic supply chain collaboration and has plans for the next generation of GPUs, including the Xi Yun C600 and C700, expected to enter production in 2025 and 2027 respectively [11][9] - Mu Xi's products are positioned to meet the growing demand for AI computing power, with a cumulative sales volume of over 25,000 GPUs by Q1 2025 [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - Major gaming companies continue to show strong revenue performance, and the cross-border payment concept may see a catalyst [1] - The report highlights significant developments in AI, both domestically and internationally, with a focus on new model releases and investments in AI infrastructure [4][5][41] Weekly Market Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.5%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.54%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.34% [3][26] - The media index increased by 2.39%, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index dropped by 2.37% [26] AI Sector Developments - NVIDIA's DLSS technology is set to receive a major update with a new "Transformer model," which is expected to significantly reduce memory usage [41] - Baidu's Wenxin large model 4.5 series has been officially open-sourced, featuring models with activation parameters of 47B and 3B [41] - Zhipu AI announced a strategic investment of 1 billion yuan and the release of the GLM-4.1V-Thinking visual language model [42] Domestic AI Highlights - Tencent Yuanqi has integrated WeChat Pay MCP, enabling developers to add various functionalities to smart agents [9] - ByteDance's EX-4D framework has been released, allowing for the generation of high-quality 4D video sequences from single-view videos [42] Semiconductor Sector Updates - SK Hynix announced its collaboration with Intel to supply HBM4 products for future AI chips [10] - CoreWeave has become the first large-scale AI cloud provider to deploy NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 system [44] E-commerce and Consumer Insights - TEMU reported a significant increase in monthly active users, reaching 416.5 million, a year-on-year growth of 68% [12] - Alibaba announced a private placement of zero-coupon exchangeable bonds totaling HKD 12.023 billion to support cloud computing infrastructure [16] Gaming Industry Performance - The total revenue of the top 50 gaming products in June was approximately 15.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 5% compared to May [19] - Tencent Games maintained 11 products in the top 50, consistent with the previous month [19]

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] - Core Viewpoint: The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 0.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [4][22] - Key Recommendations: Focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Group 2 - Synthetic Biology: A pivotal moment is approaching, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the energy structure adjustment [4] - Refrigerants: The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth anticipated [5] - Electronic Specialty Gases: The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals: A global trend towards lighter raw materials in the olefin industry is noted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter ethane and propane [8] - COC Polymers: The domestic industrialization process is accelerating, driven by breakthroughs in local enterprises and a shift in downstream industries to domestic production [9] - Potash Fertilizer: Prices are expected to bottom out and rebound due to supply reductions and increased demand from farmers [10] - MDI Market: The oligopoly structure is expected to improve, with demand steadily increasing and a favorable supply outlook anticipated [12]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current net financing by major banks has reached an unprecedented level of 5.3 trillion yuan, which is historically high and linked to the central bank's liquidity support [2][12][16] - It notes that the trend of easing liquidity can be linearly extrapolated, and any disruption to this trend would require additional variables [3][13] - The report suggests that if the liquidity remains loose in July, the long-term interest rates may decline further, with the current 10Y-1Y yield spread at 30 basis points, the highest since mid-February [3][12][13] Group 2 - The report indicates that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen to 107.85%, reflecting an increase in borrowing activity [23] - It mentions that the average daily transaction volume of pledged repos was approximately 7.6 trillion yuan, with overnight repos accounting for 89.71% of the total [27][31] - The report states that the median duration of medium- to long-term bond funds remains at 2.87 years, indicating stability in fund management strategies [49]

策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the synthetic biology industry Core Insights - The synthetic biology sector is experiencing a global technological revolution, providing innovative solutions to major challenges such as health, climate change, and food security, as highlighted by the National Development and Reform Commission's "14th Five-Year Plan for Bioeconomic Development" [4] - The Huazhong Securities Synthetic Biology Index, which includes 58 companies across various sectors, has seen a decline of 3.42% recently, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][17] - The first local regulations for synthetic biology manufacturing were passed in Changde, Hunan, aimed at promoting industry development and addressing issues like talent shortages and approval efficiency [8][10] Summary by Sections 1.1 Secondary Market Performance - The synthetic biology sector's stocks have shown poor performance, with a recent decline of 3.42%, ranking 32nd among sectors [17] - The top-performing companies include Jincheng Pharmaceutical (+11%), Xinhai Hengli (+10%), and Dongbao Biological (+7%) [18] 1.2 Company Business Progress - Kexin Pharmaceutical's CAR-T therapy targeting Claudin18.2 has received regulatory acceptance for market application, offering new treatment options for advanced gastric cancer patients [23] - Angel Yeast announced a significant investment of 5.56 billion yuan to expand its biological manufacturing center and enhance its product lines [23] - Internationally, Covestro acquired Swiss film technology company Pontacol to strengthen its specialty materials business [25] 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - The synthetic biology sector is witnessing accelerated financing, with nearly 100 companies completing new funding rounds since the beginning of 2025 [31] - Zhejiang Rongrui Technology completed nearly 100 million yuan in Pre-A financing, focusing on green biological manufacturing [31] - Avantium, a Dutch biobased PEF company, secured 10 million euros to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Since 2024, the bond trading attributes of joint-stock banks, which were "neglected" in traditional institutional behavior research, have expanded, and high-frequency operations of interest rate bands can be observed. Based on their behavior, corresponding buy and sell timing signals can be constructed, and the follow-up strategy outperforms the benchmark return (10Y Treasury bond) by about 30% [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Why Do We Focus on the Trading Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks? 1.1 A Consensus on the Institutional Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks in the Market Joint-stock banks are the last "puzzle piece" in institutional behavior research. The market consensus on the institutional behavior of joint-stock banks is that they usually conduct distribution in the secondary market. Joint-stock banks and city commercial banks typically have an obvious nature of "primary subscription and secondary distribution," so they generally show a net selling feature in secondary cash bond transactions. Historically, joint-stock banks have shown a net selling state in nearly 90% of the time, similar to city commercial banks [11]. 1.2 New Features of the Institutional Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks Since 2024 Since 2024, joint-stock banks have started to increase interest rate band trading. On the one hand, as the Ministry of Finance has increased the issuance scale of single Treasury bonds, the stock scale of active bonds with key tenors (such as 10Y) has reached a new high, reducing the impact of distribution from new bond issuance. On the other hand, since 2024, the overall liability side of the banking system has been squeezed, making them more reliant on the income from bond investment business on the asset side. Therefore, the trading volume of joint-stock banks for old 10-year Treasury bonds has increased significantly, and they are no longer in the previous mode of distribution and passive buying during bond market corrections [2][14]. 2. Judgment of Interest Rate Timing Signals Based on the Trading Behavior of Joint-Stock Banks 2.1 Construction of Low-Frequency Interest Rate Timing Signals Based on the trading behavior of joint-stock banks, a cash bond follow-up strategy signal is constructed. By studying the trading behavior of joint-stock banks on long-term bonds and eliminating the impact of the latest bond distribution, in the past year, the long-term interest rate band trading return following joint-stock banks under the 10MA caliber has exceeded the benchmark by nearly 30%. From September last year to late June this year, the 10-year Treasury bond yield declined by 49bp, while the interest rate band return following joint-stock banks was 62bp, with an excess return of 13bp over the benchmark and an overall excess return rate of 26%. Moreover, if the continuous days of the signal triggered by joint-stock banks exceed 5 trading days, the winning rate of their buying signals in the past year was 100%, capturing a total band of 59bp, and the winning rate of selling signals was 60%, avoiding a capital loss of 15bp [2][18][21]. 2.2 Construction of Medium-Frequency and Other Timing Signals Two other perspectives can be used to observe the interest rate timing signals of the trading behavior of joint-stock banks. First, observe the higher-frequency 5MA caliber buying signals. Since 2025 is a year of strong fiscal efforts, there may still be distribution impacts under the old bond caliber at some time points, so the buying signals of joint-stock banks may be more meaningful than the selling signals. Second, observe the extreme value of single-day demand. If it exceeds a certain threshold, it can be regarded as an overbought or oversold signal, and the historical backtesting shows a relatively high winning rate [3][24][27].

Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Group 1: Core Views - The report mainly discusses three questions in light of the Q3 national debt issuance plan announced on June 30: whether the ultra-long bonds will experience a bond-switching market again, what rules can be grasped if the bond-switching market arrives, and how to view the supply pressure of interest rate bonds within the year [2] - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, with 20Y/30Y/50Y at 50 billion yuan, 71 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan respectively. The estimated total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, roughly in line with the 1.3 trillion yuan announced during the Two Sessions [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, while the 30Y active bond is likely to remain 2500002.IB. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low [4] - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, with interest rates declining first, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust. For 30Y national debts, if there is an expectation of an active bond switch, the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 needs to be large enough, or the issuance scale of each period of the bond needs to be small enough [6] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may occur in August, and the supply pressure in July is significantly reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The central bank may restart national debt purchases in August to hedge against the supply peak or announce it in advance in July [6] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant content provided in the text Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Perspective 1: Is it possible for ultra-long bonds to be switched? - The issuance scale of ultra-long special national debts this year has increased and remained constant, different from the past where the single-bond issuance scale was usually small and the reissuance scale occasionally changed [3] - Based on the linear extrapolation of the special national debt issuance scale from the beginning of the year to date, the total issuance for the year is about 1.302 trillion yuan, consistent with the announced amount [3] - The 20Y bonds may experience a bond switch, and if the first issuance scale of 20Y bonds exceeds 5 billion yuan, the market may expect this bond type to become the active bond. The short-term probability of a 30Y bond switch is low, and the active bond 2500002.IB position can be maintained [4] Perspective 2: How to respond if there is an expectation of an active bond switch? - For 20Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale exceeds 5 billion yuan, the new bond may see a rush, and the current active bond 2500001.IB may adjust [6] - For 30Y national debts, if the single-bond issuance scale on July 14 exceeds 12 billion yuan, investors may expect the final scale of this 30Y national debt to exceed the current active bond, leading to a rush. If the issuance scale of the 30Y special national debts on July 14, July 24, and August 8 is small enough, the expectation of an active bond switch may increase [6][7] - The supply peak of interest rate bonds may be in August, and the supply pressure in July is reduced. The bond market in July is favorable from the supply perspective. The strategy can maintain the duration and wait for the opportunity of interest rate decline in the second half of the year [6]