Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Hua'an's View**: It is recommended to switch to active bonds to capture the left - hand side of the bond market trend. The trading mainline of the bond market is unclear. Although the overall situation is favorable, there are still negative factors under the high - duration and high - leverage of investors. The fundamentals are not likely to be negative for the bond market, and the central bank has an obvious intention to support the capital market. Holding 10Y/30Y active bonds helps to obtain capital gains when positive factors materialize and stop losses in case of negative factors [2]. - **Seller's View**: The sentiment index has slightly declined, but more than 60% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market. Among 29 institutions, 19 are bullish, 8 are neutral, and 2 are bearish [2]. - **Buyer's View**: The overall view of fixed - income buyers is still bullish on the bond market, but the sentiment index has declined for two consecutive weeks. Among 24 institutions, 10 are bullish, 13 are neutral, and 1 is bearish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.48, and the unweighted index is 0.60, down 0.07 from last week. 66% of institutions are bullish, believing that July is an important window for long - positions due to historical patterns, economic weakness, and loose funds, with low bond supply pressure and favorable quarter - end institutional behavior. 27% are neutral, citing limited positive impact of the Lujiazui Forum on further decline of capital interest rates, economic resilience in the context of export rush, and potential unexpected outcomes from Sino - US talks. 7% are bearish, concerned about the stock market driving up bond interest rates and mean - reversion of interest rates [10]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index this week is 0.23, unchanged from last week. 42% of institutions are bullish, expecting loose funds and a possible quarter - on - quarter weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q3. 56% are neutral, as the Q2 monetary policy meeting has reduced expectations of broad credit, and the equity market suppresses bond market sentiment. 2% are bearish due to low yields [11][12]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - topics include seasonal entry of wealth management funds and expansion of credit ETFs. Seasonal entry of wealth management funds may cause short - term disturbances to the credit market as wealth management scale expands after the quarter - end and institutional allocation power strengthens. The market for credit ETF component bonds is expected to continue [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - Institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view this week. 38% are bullish, noting the relative strength of debt - biased convertible bonds and the catch - up of bottom - position varieties. 62% are neutral, expecting the equity market to strengthen, limited incremental information from the Politburo meeting, and suggesting attention to the central price of convertible bonds [20]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have all declined. As of June 27, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.54 yuan, 106.27 yuan, 109.05 yuan, and 120.89 yuan respectively, down 0.002 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.43 yuan from last Friday. - The open interest of futures contracts varies. The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 119,000 lots, 166,000 lots, 204,000 lots, and 116,000 lots respectively, with changes of - 183 lots, + 2960 lots, - 8166 lots, and - 318 lots from last Friday. - The trading volume has generally increased. From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 63.7 billion yuan, 59.1 billion yuan, 68.8 billion yuan, and 100.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3.95 billion yuan, + 2.102 billion yuan, + 5.55 billion yuan, and + 21.726 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading - to - open - interest ratio has generally increased. The trading - to - open - interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 0.27, 0.37, 0.33, and 0.87 respectively, with changes of - 0.01, + 0.003, + 0.02, and + 0.15 from last Friday [24][25]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds has increased. On June 27, it reached 7.93%, up 3.34 percentage points from last week and 4.35 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average of 5.18%. - The weekly average turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has increased. On June 27, it was 1.02%, up 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.06 percentage points from Monday. - The turnover rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds has decreased. On June 27, it was 4.46%, down 0.91 percentage points from last week and 1.12 percentage points from Monday [32][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TF and TL main contracts has widened, while the rest have narrowed. As of June 27, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, and + 0.32 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.02 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, + 0.02 yuan, and + 0.06 yuan from last Friday. - The net basis of the TS main contract has turned from negative to positive, and the rest have narrowed. As of June 27, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.03 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, - 0.04 yuan, and 0.01 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.07 yuan, + 0.03 yuan, + 0.07 yuan, and + 0.15 yuan from last Friday. - The IRR of the TF main contract has increased, while the rest have decreased. As of June 27, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.85%, 1.92%, 1.86%, and 1.66% respectively, with changes of - 0.05%, + 0.08%, - 0.06%, and - 0.26% from last Friday [43][45]. 2.4 Inter - period and Inter - product Spreads - Inter - period spreads have shown mixed trends. As of June 27, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.13 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.02 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and - 0.02 yuan from last Friday. - Inter - product spreads have generally widened. As of June 27, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 98.83 yuan, 103.46 yuan, 301.11 yuan, and 206.27 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.02 yuan, + 0.08 yuan, + 0.11 yuan, and + 0.11 yuan from last Friday [52].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 3.11% during the week of June 23-27, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.19 percentage points but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.59 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance during the week was characterized by a 3.11% increase, with the top three performing sectors being computer (7.70%), defense industry (6.90%), and non-bank financials (6.66%) [22][23] - The top three gaining stocks in the chemical sector were Dazhongnan (50.00%), Taihe Technology (48.09%), and Tiensheng New Materials (31.41%) [29] Key Industry Dynamics - The ethane export situation has improved, transitioning from a "complete suspension" to "transportable, but not unloading" [1][37] - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is expected to lead to a high prosperity cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with companies holding a high quota share likely to benefit significantly [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with significant potential for domestic companies to break through and capture market space [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to bottom out and recover due to supply-side adjustments and increased demand from farmers [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Group 1: Financial Performance - 阳光诺和预计2025年营业收入将较2024年增长不低于10%[1] - 九号公司2025年营业收入预计为2509百万，较2024年增长40%[1] - 牧原股份2025年预计销量高速增长，2025年净利润增速为26%[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Risks - STC007新药研发进展领先，市场空间较大，潜在BD预期将增厚利润[1] - 美团外卖在补贴力度升级下可能受到影响，但长期看具备运营效率优势[1] - 华友钴业受益于刚果金延长出口禁令，钴价有望上涨[1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - 精智达预计2025年半导体设备收入将达到5亿，是2024年的两倍[1] - 阳光电源在全球储能市场具备竞争优势，预计2025年净利润具备高增潜力[1] - 广和通布局具身智能机器人，供货全球头部机器人公司[1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience increased volatility in July due to external factors, particularly the US "reciprocal tariff" negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [2][3][15] - Domestic economic growth is projected to exceed the annual target, with a forecasted growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, driven by improved exports and structural policy support [3][18][21] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in real estate valuations due to anticipated policy easing, particularly in light of the upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting [9][38][39] Group 2 - The banking and insurance sectors are identified as having high investment value, supported by stable high dividends and the influx of long-term capital [37][40][41] - Key sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemical products, which are expected to benefit from global economic conditions and geopolitical factors [9][38] - The report emphasizes the risks associated with the growth technology sector, which has seen significant price increases and is now facing potential valuation corrections [10][39]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong momentum in AI development both domestically and internationally, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector [4][43] - OpenAI has opened access to its deep research model API, providing developers with powerful tools for tasks requiring advanced reasoning and real-time information [3][46] - The Hong Kong government has introduced a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which may enhance financing options for companies in China [4] Market Review - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, the ChiNext Index increased by 5.69%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a 1.95% rise. The Hang Seng Tech Index and Nasdaq Index both experienced gains of 4.06% and 4.25%, respectively [2][23] - The AI index increased by 5.24%, while the computer index rose by 7.7%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [23] AI Developments - OpenAI's deep research model API is now available, which includes features like automated web search and data analysis, enhancing the capabilities for developers [3][43] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen launched a new multimodal model, Qwen VLo, which is designed for precise control in generating long text passages [4][45] - Tencent's Hunyuan-A13B model has been released, boasting 80 billion parameters with a focus on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [4][44] Semiconductor Sector - Micron reported a revenue of $9.301 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 36.56% year-over-year increase, with DRAM revenue reaching a historical high [7][48] Automotive Sector - Tesla's Model Y has achieved fully autonomous delivery from factory to customer, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology [8] E-commerce Developments - Amazon plans to expand its same-day and next-day delivery services to over 4,000 small towns and rural communities in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with an investment of approximately $4 billion [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Xiaomi's recent product launch has attracted market attention, indicating that the next generation of personal terminal innovative products has a long way to go [5] - The report provides a review of the market performance for the week of June 23 to June 27, 2025, noting significant increases in various indices, with the semiconductor packaging and testing sector showing the highest growth at 8.32% [4][37] Summary by Sections 1. Important News in the Electronics Industry - The report mentions that the Chinese PC monitor market saw a 14% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies [13] - OLED and MiniLED monitors experienced explosive growth, with OLED shipments increasing by 433.7% year-on-year [14] - The global semiconductor foundry market reached $72.29 billion in Q1 2025, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, driven by demand for AI and HPC chips [18] - The global smart camera market grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with Xiaomi showing a notable increase of 38.6% in shipments in the Chinese market [21][27] 2. Market Performance Review - The report details the performance of various indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.91%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 3.73% during the week [4][37] - The semiconductor packaging and testing sector led the industry with an 8.32% increase, while the panel sector lagged with a 3.11% increase [4][37] 3. Individual Stock Performance - The report lists the top-performing stocks for the week, including Haoshanghao and Weiteou, while stocks like Lianjian Optoelectronics and Jiemite performed poorly [53] - Year-to-date performance highlights include Shenghong Technology and Nanya New Materials as top performers, while stocks like Shengke Communication-U and Guoxing Optoelectronics lagged [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The game space for the bond market from the economic fundamentals is shrinking. The economy performed well in Q1, and it is likely to be decent in Q2. It is highly probable that the annual growth rate will reach around 5%. Considering the bond market's front - running effect, not adding positions now may lead to missing an important long - buying window this year. For public funds with relative ranking assessments, it will be extremely difficult to outperform peer products in the second half of the year [4][10]. - Whether the central bank will restart bond purchases is a significant game point in the current bond market. Currently, market sentiment has reached a high level, with the bond market's leverage ratio and bond fund duration both rising. If the central bank announces bond purchases at the end of the month, the short - end yields may decline further, driving down the long - end yields. However, the monetary authority may be aware of the bond market's front - running tendency, and considering that the June 18th Lujiazui Forum did not mention restarting bond purchases and the central bank's Q2 monetary policy meeting maintained the statement of "monitoring changes in long - term bond yields", caution should be exercised regarding the central bank's potential restart of bond purchases [4][10]. - Investors face a prisoner's dilemma when gambling on the central bank's bond - buying. If the central bank restarts bond purchases, investors who miss the opportunity may find it difficult to have another chance to boost returns this year. For those who add positions, the ranking competition depends on the depth of strategy implementation (leverage, duration). If the central bank does not announce bond purchases, heavy - position investors may incur losses, and the ranking competition among those who added positions depends on the speed of stop - loss [4][10]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Overall Situation**: At the cross - quarter time point, the bond market was volatile, with short - end bonds performing better. The 10 - year treasury bond yield remained flat, while the 1 - year and 3 - year yields decreased slightly by 1 - 2bp. Investors face a prisoner's dilemma due to factors such as cross - quarter, public funds' pursuit of rankings and scale, the uncertainty of central bank bond - buying, and the yet - to - be - released June PMI data. Large banks have been buying short - term bonds for nearly a month, non - bank institutions have high chasing sentiment, and other product - type net purchases have increased significantly [2][9]. - **Yield Curve**: Treasury bond yields declined at the short - end and rose at the long - end. The 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, 3Y by 1bp, while 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y yields rose by about 1bp, 3bp, 1bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively. For China Development Bank bonds, short - end yields declined, and medium - to - long - end yields rose. The 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, 3Y yield changed less than 1bp, 5Y decreased by 1bp, 7Y rose by about 1bp, 10Y remained flat, 15Y rose by 2bp, and 30Y rose by 1bp [12]. - **Term Spread**: Treasury bond and China Development Bank bond spreads showed different trends. For treasury bonds, the short - end spreads widened, and the long - end spreads showed different trends. For China Development Bank bonds, the spreads also showed different trends [13][16]. 2. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Leverage Ratio**: From June 23rd to June 27th, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and decreased. As of June 27th, it was approximately 107.80%, down 0.05 percentage points from last Friday and up 0.04 percentage points from Monday [19]. - **Average Daily Turnover of Pledged Repurchase**: From June 23rd to 27th, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was about 7.7 trillion yuan, down 0.55 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily overnight turnover accounted for 83% [22][26]. - **Funding Situation**: From June 23rd to June 27th, bank - related fund outflows continued to increase. The net fund outflow of large banks and policy banks on June 27th was 4.93 trillion yuan; joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had an average daily net inflow of 0.01 trillion yuan, with a net outflow of 0.25 trillion yuan on June 27th. The main fund - borrowing party was funds, and the money - market fund outflows first increased and then decreased [27]. 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: This week (June 23rd - June 27th), the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.17 years (leveraged). On June 27th, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.87 years, up 0.05 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) was 3.17 years, up 0.11 years from last Friday [43]. - **Duration by Bond Fund Type**: The median duration (leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds rose to 3.82 years, up 0.13 years from last Friday; the median duration (leveraged) of credit - bond funds rose to 2.95 years, up 0.08 years from last Friday. The median duration (de - leveraged) of interest - rate bond funds was 3.44 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (de - leveraged) of credit - bond funds was 2.74 years, up 0.05 years from last Friday [47][48]. 4. Comparison of Category Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall Sino - US treasury bond yield spread widened. The 1Y spread widened by 9bp, 2Y by 16bp, 3Y by 13bp, 5Y by about 14bp, 7Y by 16bp, 10Y by 10bp, and 30Y by 5bp [50]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: As of June 27th, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds for 1Y and 3Y changed less than 1bp, 5Y narrowed by about 2bp, 7Y narrowed by 1bp, 10Y changed less than 1bp, 15Y widened by 1bp, and 30Y changed less than 1bp [53]. 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balances On June 27th, the lending concentration of active 10 - year treasury bonds, second - active 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, and active 30 - year treasury bonds showed an upward trend, as did the second - active 10 - year treasury bonds and active 10 - year China Development Bank bonds. By institution, all institutions showed a decline [54].

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 深度报告 探析信用债 ETF 成份券交易策略 报告日期： 2025-06-27 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 首选做市券，次选做市主体券，提前布局科创债成份券 近期，信用债 ETF 行情较好，流通市值整体大涨，作为以实物交割为主的 交易性开放式指数基金，规模的增长会转化为对信用债的配置需求，进而 推动相关个券流动性的提升与收益率的下行，因此以标的指数成份券为主 要交易对象的策略在当前环境下的性价比凸显。 具体来看，我们以 PCF 清单为依据，近似观测当前沪深做市信用债 ETF 的 主要持仓结构。截至 6 月 25 日，每日被信用债 ETF 持仓的债券余额已超过 7400 亿元，其中 ETF 持仓的金额超过 1100 亿元，被 ETF 持仓的金额占债 券余额的比重来到 15.5%。分评级来看，信用债 ETF 主要持有隐含 AAA 个 券，其次为 AAA- 与 AA+，对应持仓规模分别占到全部做市券余额的 15.2%、8.8%与 9.7%。而在期限方面，信用债 ETF 主要持有 1 至 3 年期与 7 至 10 年期债券，其中后者占比最高， ...

Market Overview - On June 25, the market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.04% and the ChiNext Index rising by 3.11%. The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 1.64 trillion, an increase of 0.19 trillion from the previous day, representing a 13% increase in trading volume [1][2]. Sector Performance - The surge in the ChiNext Index was largely supported by the strong performance of the securities sector, driven by positive sentiment from the Hong Kong market, particularly following the approval of a virtual asset trading license for Guotai Junan International. This led to a nearly 200% increase in Guotai Junan International's stock price in Hong Kong, which in turn catalyzed the A-share securities sector [2]. - The defense and military industry also contributed to the market's rise, influenced by several catalysts, including the announcement of a military parade on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the meeting of defense ministers from Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states [2]. Market Dynamics - The market is positioned at a new equilibrium, with ample potential liquidity and strong market expectations. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with a continuous easing of liquidity and a decline in risk-free interest rates, which provides sufficient potential liquidity for the equity market. There is a consensus on the need to stabilize the capital market, which has led to improved market sentiment [3]. - The report suggests that while the market is expected to experience increased volatility at this new equilibrium, the risk of a significant downturn is low due to the regulatory focus on market stability and the resilience of the economy [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. Short-term investments in banks and insurance companies, which offer stability and high dividend yields, making them attractive in a fluctuating market. The robust operational stability and significant dividend payout ratios of banks are highlighted as key factors for sustained investment [4][6]. 2. Sectors with strong economic support, including rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals. The demand for precious metals is expected to rise due to increased central bank reserves and a long-term downward trend in global real interest rates [6]. Growth Risks - The report notes that the growth technology sector faces increasing risks of a pullback, particularly as the valuation of the computer industry has reached a historical high of 82.9 times as of June 25, 2025, which is comparable to previous market peaks. The report emphasizes that valuation changes are critical to market trends and that the technology sector may face significant valuation challenges moving forward [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current market has a strong consensus on the bond market. Geopolitical and macro - environmental factors are favorable to the bond market, and the monetary policy is in a loosening trend. The impact of supply logic is expected to slow down in the third quarter. One can continue to explore convex points on the curve and certain bond types with spreads, and should also set up right - side profit - taking strategies at the end of the half - year [3]. - More than 70% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, and the sentiment has significantly warmed up. The sentiment index of both sellers and buyers is approaching the annual high, with more than half of the institutions being bullish [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.55, and the unweighted index is 0.68, up 0.11 from last week. 72% of institutions are bullish, 21% neutral, and 7% bearish [11]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index this week is 0.35, up 0.12 from last week. 52% of institutions are bullish, and 48% are neutral [12]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include seasonal entry of wealth management products and market's expectation of monetary easing. After the quarter - end, the scale of wealth management products expands, and the central bank maintains a loose capital environment [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 23% of institutions are bullish, and 77% are neutral [20]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of June 20, the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of TS/TF/T/TL treasury futures contracts all increased, while the trading - to - open - interest ratios generally decreased [22][23]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On June 20, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds increased, while that of 10Y CDB bonds decreased [31][34]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of June 20, the basis of the TS contract widened, and the net basis of TS and T contracts widened. The IRR of TF slightly decreased, while others increased [39][43]. 2.4 Spread Trading - As of June 20, except for the narrowing of the inter - delivery spread of the T contract, other inter - delivery spreads and all inter - product spreads widened [51].