Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment in the stock [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - Shandong Expressway is a leading player in the toll road and bridge sector, focusing on the investment and operation of transportation infrastructure, with a robust expansion strategy in the upstream and downstream value chain [5][9]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining an average dividend payout ratio of 65.37% from 2019 to 2023, with a commitment to not distribute less than 60% of net profit as dividends from 2020 to 2024 [5][26]. - The company is expected to see stable growth in revenue and profit, with projected net profits of 3,216 million, 3,378 million, and 3,561 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in traffic demand and operational efficiency [6][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shandong Expressway, established in 1999 and listed in 2002, has expanded its operational toll road mileage from 1,452 kilometers in 2010 to 2,864 kilometers by 2024, achieving a CAGR of 5.36% [13][18]. - The company is controlled by the state-owned Shandong Expressway Group, which holds 70.31% of the shares, providing a strong backing for its operations [13][14]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue CAGR of 17.09% and a net profit CAGR of 2.72% from 2014 to 2023, with total assets growing at a CAGR of 14.71% [18]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19,901 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.94%, while net profit decreased by 5.70% to 2,516 million RMB due to adverse weather conditions and traffic diversions [18][20]. Business Segments - The toll road business is the core revenue driver, contributing 37.29% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit margin of 53.78% [15][21]. - The company has diversified its operations into various sectors, including construction services, electrical engineering, and railway transportation, with the latter contributing 9.50% to total revenue in the first half of 2024 [15][39]. Investment Strategy - The company employs an "investment + management" model to expand its national highway network, managing a total of 2,864 kilometers of toll road assets across multiple provinces [28][32]. - Shandong Expressway has made strategic investments in sectors such as finance, environmental protection, and smart transportation, enhancing its growth potential [34][35]. Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates stable revenue growth driven by a recovery in traffic demand and ongoing expansion of its toll road assets, with expected net profits showing modest growth from 2025 to 2027 [47][51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the gypsum board industry, backed by China National Building Material Group, and is transitioning into a comprehensive building materials manufacturer and service provider [5] - The company has established a strong competitive moat in the gypsum board sector, achieving a market share of approximately 56% by 2024, which provides a stable cash flow even during industry downturns [5] - The company's strategic acquisitions in the waterproofing and coating sectors have significantly contributed to its revenue growth, enhancing its credibility as a leader in consumer building materials [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 22,426 million RMB - 2024: 25,821 million RMB (growth of 15.14%) - 2025E: 27,344 million RMB (growth of 5.90%) - 2026E: 28,961 million RMB (growth of 5.91%) - 2027E: 31,137 million RMB (growth of 7.51%) [4] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 3,524 million RMB - 2024: 3,647 million RMB (growth of 3.49%) - 2025E: 4,025 million RMB (growth of 10.36%) - 2026E: 4,362 million RMB (growth of 8.39%) - 2027E: 4,805 million RMB (growth of 10.14%) [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 2.09 RMB - 2024: 2.16 RMB - 2025E: 2.38 RMB - 2026E: 2.58 RMB - 2027E: 2.84 RMB [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully implemented a dual-wing strategy through significant acquisitions in the waterproofing and coating sectors, enhancing its market position and revenue streams [5] - The waterproofing segment is expected to generate revenue of 3.322 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.23% [5] - The coating business has expanded to a production capacity exceeding 1 million tons, with strategic acquisitions enhancing its competitive advantage [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a structural differentiation in performance, with 16 companies reporting revenue growth and 12 companies reporting net profit growth in 2024, indicating a challenging environment due to the slowdown in infrastructure project implementation [7][10] - The domestic infrastructure sector is expected to gain momentum in 2025, driven by policy support and project launches, with significant projects like the Grand Canal in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle being highlighted [16] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is becoming increasingly important as external challenges rise, with trade with Belt and Road countries growing by 5.16% in 2024, indicating strong demand and cooperation potential [19][22] Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction and decoration index fell by 0.27% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28% [43] - Among the sub-sectors, steel structure, engineering consulting services, and municipal engineering showed positive growth, with increases of 3.32%, 0.67%, and 0.16% respectively [43] Company Performance - Major state-owned enterprises like China Railway, China Communications, and China Energy are expected to see stable order reserves and positive growth in new contract amounts for 2025, with targets of 20,147 million, 30,600 million, and 15,000 million respectively [14] - The international engineering and chemical engineering sectors are performing well, with companies like Donghua Technology and Northern International showing significant revenue and profit growth [10][11] External Challenges - The trade tensions with the U.S. have led to increased tariffs, significantly impacting China's exports, with the average tariff on Chinese goods reaching 21% during the Trump administration [19][22] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a strategic response to these challenges, with trade with Belt and Road countries accounting for 34.76% of China's total foreign trade in 2024, reflecting its growing importance [22][30] Infrastructure Investment - The report highlights the potential for infrastructure investment to rebound in 2025, with a focus on projects that have strong regional resource advantages and project execution capabilities [16] - Key enterprises to watch include major state-owned companies like China Construction, China Railway, and local state-owned enterprises such as Sichuan Road and Bridge and Anhui Construction [16]

证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 08 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | 15.25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高 | | | | | | | 17.17/12.00 | 最 | | | 内 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 13,725.00 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 3,660.00 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the consolidation with China Merchants Railway has led to significant revenue growth [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 5.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.35% [6] - The company is focusing on its core business and has successfully completed the transition of the management of the Road King asset package, adding 276 kilometers of operational mileage [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 9.73 billion yuan (2023), 12.71 billion yuan (2024), 12.90 billion yuan (2025E), 13.23 billion yuan (2026E), and 13.60 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.77 billion yuan (2023), 5.32 billion yuan (2024), 5.74 billion yuan (2025E), 6.19 billion yuan (2026E), and 6.70 billion yuan (2027E) [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.40% (2023), 7.47% (2024), 7.65% (2025E), 7.84% (2026E), and 8.05% (2027E) [5] Market Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 34.09% in 2024, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to asset optimization and adverse weather conditions [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased due to the consolidation with China Merchants Railway, with a total expense ratio of 20.92% in 2024, up by 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing expansion strategies and has made progress on various upgrade and expansion projects, including the completion of internal project approvals for the Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou Expressway southern section [6] - The company has also completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity in Hunan Yonglan Expressway and is advancing the preliminary engineering for several other projects [6]

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 关税反制下的农业结构性机会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250331-20250403） 投资要点： 生猪：标肥价差后市预期不足，二育逐步出栏兑现利润。 联系人 标肥价差收窄，肥猪供应压力或显现。本周涌益数据最新猪价降至 14.60 元/kg，出 栏均重增至 128.89kg，15Kg 仔猪涨至 659 元/头，175kg 标肥价差为 0.80 元/kg。 二育群体出栏意愿增强，延后的供应压力开始显现，猪价或有下行压力；中长期看 全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，2 月农业部全国能繁母猪存栏量 4066 万头，即将超出 105%的产 ...

证券研究报告 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 内需有望进一步发力，地产止跌回稳意义重大 房地产 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——美国宣布"对等关税"事件点评 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，房地产量价超预期下行、房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：美国东部时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普宣布"对等关税"相关政策并签署 总统行政令，向所有贸易伙伴征收不同水平的关税，其中拟对中国加征 34%关税， 对欧盟、越南、中国台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、印度尼西亚、马 来西亚、柬埔 ...

证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 避险情绪升温，收益率大幅下行 ——信用分析周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/3） 投资要点： 3）负面舆情：鑫苑(中国)置业有限公司所发行"19 鑫苑 01"展期；江苏华宏科技 股份有限公司主体评级调低，其所发行的"华宏转债"债项评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周资金面边际收紧，公开市场共有 11868 亿元逆回购到期，央行 累计开展 6849 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净回笼 5019 亿元。或受美国征收"对等 关税"事件以及清明假期等因素影响，本周市场避险情绪明显升温，交易量和换手 率较上周均有较大幅度下降。基于我们对当前中国利率处于历史最低位，25Q2 债市 或维持震荡的判断，我们认为后市信用利差继续大幅收窄的可能性或较低。 投资建议：总体来看，本周不同行业信用利差涨跌互现。城投债方面，3-5Y 城投信 用利差倒挂长端利差，且 3-5Y 信用利差处于较高历史分位，后续仍有较大收窄空间， 建议可选取发达地区的优质城投主 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The logistics sector is experiencing stable growth, with national freight logistics operating smoothly, showing a slight increase in cargo transport and express delivery volumes [4] - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff policies presents structural opportunities, particularly in the road transport sector, which is currently in a stable growth phase [4] - The logistics industry may face increased cost pressures due to high tariffs, potentially accelerating the formation of a unified logistics market where scale and technology become core competitive advantages [5] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand and lower oil prices, while facing challenges from increased costs due to tariffs on imported aircraft and parts [6][10] - The shipping industry is threatened by the ongoing trade tensions and tariffs, which could lead to a restructuring of global trade routes and supply chains, favoring oil transportation and intra-Asian shipping [10][11] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations have been orderly, with significant increases in cargo transport and express delivery volumes during the monitored period [4] - The road transport sector saw a year-on-year increase in freight volume and passenger flow, indicating a potential for growth driven by domestic manufacturing [4] Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to see a rebound in demand due to macroeconomic recovery, with a focus on key airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Air China [16] - The supply chain for aircraft manufacturing is under pressure due to tariffs, which could increase costs for airlines [6] Shipping - The shipping industry faces challenges from U.S. tariffs, which have significantly impacted global trade volumes, particularly in long-distance trade between the U.S. and Asia [10] - The oil shipping segment may benefit from increased demand due to geopolitical factors and sanctions affecting oil trade [11] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with major players like ZTO Express and SF Express expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [16] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, providing opportunities for long-term investment in leading companies [17]

Group 1 - The report highlights that AI Agents are accelerating penetration across various industries and may become the primary mode of human-machine collaboration, with three models identified: embedding, copilot, and agent mode, with the agent mode being the most efficient [3][9][10] - In 2022, China's data output reached 8.1ZB, growing by 22.7% year-on-year, and is projected to reach approximately 9.5ZB in 2023, making it the second-largest data producer globally [18][20] - The report identifies 15 companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange involved in AI applications, including AiRong Software (AI finance), Guozi Software (AI-enabled data assets), and Huaxin Yongdao (AI governance) [24][25] Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the new energy industry increased by 0.51% to 45.7X, while the electronic equipment industry's P/E ratio rose from 51.8X to 52.0X [34][59] - The report notes that the median P/E ratio for the machinery equipment industry decreased from 52.4X to 50.9X, and the information technology industry's P/E ratio fell from 61.6X to 59.3X [41][47] - The report mentions that the total market value of the new energy industry decreased from 468.4 billion to 465.3 billion, with notable stock performance from companies like QiuGuan Cable (+17.39%) and YiNeng Power (+5.75%) [59][61] Group 3 - The report states that the total market value of the electronic equipment industry decreased from 1195.1 billion to 1164.8 billion, with the median market value rising from 21.8 billion to 23.2 billion [36][37] - The machinery equipment industry's total market value fell from 972.7 billion to 939.7 billion, with the median market value decreasing from 19.5 billion to 18.7 billion [42][44] - The report indicates that the total market value of the information technology industry decreased from 878.1 billion to 858.4 billion, while the median market value remained unchanged at 24.5 billion [49][50] Group 4 - The report highlights that Kairun Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. won a bid for an electrification project in an African country, with a contract value of 732.121 million USD [63]