证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 结构风险，右侧博弈 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：小微盘压力有所显现 ► 策略：若指数继续调整，把握博弈机会 以史为鉴，当小微盘相对拥挤的风险释放之后，指数大概率 持续回升。近年来三段小微盘拥挤的调整之后（2023 年末- 2024 年初、2024 年末-2025 年初和 2025 年 3-4 月），其行情 均迎来显著修复。 展望后续行情，在本轮行情继续调整的情况下，若外部压力 增大，指数可能会加速回落。同时，稳市预期&政策预期升 温，为行情提供支撑，"国家队"实际稳市行为或较快推动行 情企稳回升。若外部压力并未明显增大，同时政策或产业出 现亮点，行情可能在温和下跌后企稳。 关于如何参与修复行情，我们认为博弈反弹或是相对稳健的 方法。从历史三段行情来看，中证 2000 企稳后的修复行情持 续天数分别为 27、40 和 27，对应涨幅分别为 37.56%、23.14% 和 19.02%。若滞后 3 日参与反弹行情，平均收益能够达到 18.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The real - estate market shows a mixed performance. Second - hand housing transactions in 15 cities have a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year slowdown, and new housing transactions in 38 cities also have a month - on - month increase with a narrowing year - on - year decline. Different city tiers and individual cities have different trends in both second - hand and new housing transactions [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Second - hand Housing Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week of May 16 - 22, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.55 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of about 4%, but the year - on - year growth rate was lower than that in March and April. The month - on - month growth rate was better than that of the same period last year and 2023 [1]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities had a month - on - month decline of 1.2%, while second - and third - tier cities had month - on - month increases of 7.3% and 9.0% respectively. Year - on - year, all three tiers of cities had growth, but the growth rates were narrower than those in March and April [1][2]. - **Individual City Analysis**: In first - tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai had month - on - month declines of 2.3% and 2.0% respectively, while Shenzhen had a 3.8% increase. In second - tier cities, Chengdu had a large increase of 10.7%, and cities like Qingdao, Hangzhou, etc. had increases between 1% - 6% [1]. New Housing Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week of May 16 - 22, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 2.84 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of about 4%. The year - on - year decline was narrowing [2]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First, second, and third - tier cities all had month - on - month increases in new housing transactions, with increases of 10%, 6%, and 14% respectively. Year - on - year, first - and second - tier cities still had declines, while third - tier cities had a 12.8% growth [2]. - **Individual City Analysis**: In first - tier cities, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai had month - on - month increases of 23%, 19%, and 2% respectively. In second - tier cities, Chengdu and Qingdao had large increases, while Hangzhou and Jinan had declines [2]. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen Observation - **Second - hand Housing**: From May 16 - 22, the week - on - week transaction area of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 1%. Beijing and Shanghai both decreased by 2%, while Shenzhen increased by 4%. Year - on - week and year - on - month, all three cities had growth [16]. - **New Housing**: From May 16 - 22, the week - on - week transaction area of new housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 10%. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen had increases of 23%, 2%, and 19% respectively. The comparison with last year's high - point and year - on - week and year - on - month data showed different trends [16]. Hangzhou and Chengdu Observation - **Hangzhou**: The week - on - week transaction area of second - hand housing increased by 1%, and that of new housing decreased by 22% in the week of May 16 - 22, equivalent to 69% and 14% of the 2024 high - point respectively [17]. - **Chengdu**: The week - on - week transaction area of second - hand housing increased by 11% and that of new housing increased by 20% compared with the pre - holiday week, equivalent to 77% and 68% of the 2024 high - point respectively [17]. Housing Price Observation From May 12 - 18, the week - on - week listing prices of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.42%, 0.19%, and 0.51% respectively. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the listing prices of second - hand housing in these three cities still decreased [40].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 本周沪锡价格小幅下跌，Bisie 首批锡精矿已 进入物流环节 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 ►本周锑锭价格环比下跌，海外锑价维持历史高位 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -20% -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03 2024/06 2024/09 有色金属 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：晏溶 邮箱：yanrong@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120519100004 分析师：熊颖 邮箱：xiongying1@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120524120001 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，沪镍持续去库 截止到 5 月 23 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,205.00 美 元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.49%，LME 镍总库存为 198,636.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Trade uncertainties have resurfaced, with President Trump threatening a 50% tariff on EU imports, which may disrupt market risk appetite temporarily. However, China's core assets still hold low-positioning value due to domestic demand resilience, industrial chain upgrades, and policy support [2][25] - OpenAI's acquisition of the AI hardware startup io for $6.5 billion marks its entry into the hardware sector, indicating a strategic shift from a "pure software ecosystem" to an "end-side closed-loop" strategy. This move is expected to lower the technical usage threshold and accelerate the commercialization of AI applications in consumer scenarios [2][25] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability; 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see growth due to policy incentives and technological empowerment; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, which will benefit from consumption policies promoting cinema recovery [3][26] Industry Data - The top three films at the box office are "Dumpling Queen" with 31.83 million yuan (21.10% market share), "Hunting Gold: Game" with 29.16 million yuan (19.40% market share), and "Life Opens the Door" with 25.13 million yuan (16.70% market share) [4][63]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 资本市场服务科技创新的政策举措密集出 台；险资长投改革试点规模继续扩容 [Table_Title2] 非银金融周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周（2025. 5.18-2025. 5.24）A 股日均交易额 11,8 70 亿元，环比减少 4.9%，同比增加 36 .0%。20 25 年二季度至今 日均成交额 12,4 47 亿元,较 2024 年二季度日均交易额增加 50.2%。202 5 年至今日均成交额 14,17 6 亿元,较 2024 年日均 交易额增加 62.7 %。投行：本周发行新股 2 家，募集资金 46.7 亿元；本周上市新股 2 家，募集资金 15. 5 亿元。202 5 年至今，A 股 IPO 上市 42 家，募集金额 2 76.0 亿元。2 024 年，A 股 IPO 上市 100 家，募集金额 673.5 亿元。两融：截至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，两市两融余额 18,089.97 亿元，环比增加 0.03%，较 20 24 年日均水平增加 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The company produced 150,000 pounds of U3O8 in Q1 2025 and plans to produce 1,000,000 pounds of finished U3O8 by the end of 2025 [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its uranium sales guidance for 2025, with a commitment to deliver 250,000 pounds of U3O8 to a major U.S. utility [3][9]. - The current spot price for U3O8 is $70.00 per pound, while the long-term price is $80.00 per pound [4]. - The company holds a total inventory of 1,310,000 pounds of U3O8 as of March 31, 2025, which includes finished goods and raw materials [5]. - The company expects to process approximately 700,000 to 1,000,000 pounds of U3O8 in 2025, a significant increase from previous guidance [22]. Summary by Sections Uranium Business - The company purchased 50,000 pounds of U3O8 at $64.75 per pound, anticipating future price increases [2]. - The company mined 15,000 pounds of U3O8 from stored alternative materials and newly mined ore in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company has increased its uranium mining guidance for 2025 based on higher-grade ore extraction from the Pinyon Plain mine [6][14]. - The company plans to continue mining and storing uranium at its Pinyon Plain, La Sal, and Pandora mines, expecting to produce between 55,000 to 80,000 tons of ore by 2025 [8]. Rare Earth Business - The company has successfully separated approximately 37 tons of praseodymium and neodymium oxide from its new rare earth element separation circuit [12]. - The company is developing technology for large-scale production of various rare earth oxides and plans to expand its separation facilities by 2028 [12][15]. Heavy Mineral Sands - In Q1 2025, the company sold 6,836 tons of ilmenite, 12,852 tons of titanium iron ore, and 1,429 tons of zircon, generating total revenue of $15.54 million [16]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $16.898 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of 33.5% year-over-year, primarily due to no uranium sales during the quarter [20]. - The company recorded a net loss of $26.3 million in Q1 2025, attributed to increased mining activities and operational costs [20]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has $214.61 million in working capital, including $73 million in cash and cash equivalents [21].

[Table_Title] 银行负债端仍有压力 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：央行加力呵护流动性，资金利率先下后上 5 月 19-23 日，经历前一周五（16 日）的资金波动后，央行投放力度明显提 升。央行逆回购净投放 4600 亿元，与此同时，央行还开展 2400 亿元的国库现金定 存投放，以及 3750 亿元 MLF 净投放。 在央行加码流动性投放的背景下，资金面延续渐进修复趋势，不过在税期走款 首日边际收紧。周一至周四（19-22 日）资金价格逐步下台阶，隔夜利率由上周五 的 1.6%水平修复至 1.4%-1.5%区间，7 天资金价格同样降至 1.5%水平。周五（23 日）在特别国债发行和税期走款首日的影响下，资金面边际收敛，DR001、R001 单日均上行 9bp，分别至 1.57%、1.61%，7 天资金利率同样抬升，DR007、R007 分别升至 1.59%、1.63%。 ►展望：季节性因素影响或占上峰，资金面还需依赖央行呵护 近两周，1年期 Shibor 利率再度下探1.67%的年内低点，之后在1.67%-1.68% 区间窄幅震荡，继续下行动力 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the production and sales of rare earth concentrates and NdPr products, indicating strong operational performance despite a decrease in sales volume for rare earth concentrates [1][2]. - Financial performance shows a 25% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by increased production of separated products, although adjusted EBITDA has declined due to rising sales costs [3][5]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, rare earth concentrate production reached 12,213 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year, while sales decreased by 33% to 6,264 tons [1]. - NdPr production surged by 330% year-on-year to 563 tons, with sales increasing by 246% to 464 tons [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $60.81 million, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the previous year, primarily due to higher sales of separated products [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $1.5 million to -$2.7 million, attributed to rising sales costs and administrative expenses [3][5]. Business Segment Performance - The materials segment reported a 14% revenue increase to $55.62 million, driven by a significant rise in NdPr sales, although the average price per kg fell by 16% [6][10]. - The magnetic materials segment generated $5.19 million in revenue, marking the first sales of precursor products, which contributed to a positive EBITDA of $0.49 million [8].

分析师 [Table_Author] 分析师：王一棠 邮箱：wangyt3@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521080003 证券研究报告|市场分析研究专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 发达市场存在中期压力，新兴市场走势分化 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 一、美股市场存在中期下跌的压力。经历今年 4 月 7 日之后的超 跌反弹，现阶段标普 500 已经出现了回调压力，SAR 最近日线已 经进入绿色区间，KDJ 指标开始进入空头排列状态，成交量开始 萎缩，且标普 500 席勒市盈率处于偏高位状态，预计现阶段美股 市场将从 B 浪反弹浪往 C 浪杀跌浪过渡，叠加美国债务问题和特 朗普关税政策的反复以及经济政策的不确定性，美股市场未来整 体来看会有进一步回调。费城半导体指数最近日线反弹到年线附 近受阻，出现了缩量调整态势，SAR 最近日线开始进入绿色区 间，KDJ 指标也进入空头排列状态，以及市盈率近期快速上升， 再叠加关税不确定性可能引发的基本面问题，预计费城半导体指 数还将出现进一步回调。TAMAMA 自今年 4 月 ...