证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 本周沪锡价格小幅下跌，Bisie 首批锡精矿已 进入物流环节 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 ►本周锑锭价格环比下跌，海外锑价维持历史高位 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -20% -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03 2024/06 2024/09 有色金属 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：晏溶 邮箱：yanrong@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120519100004 分析师：熊颖 邮箱：xiongying1@hx168.com.cn SACNO：S1120524120001 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，沪镍持续去库 截止到 5 月 23 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,205.00 美 元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.49%，LME 镍总库存为 198,636.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Trade uncertainties have resurfaced, with President Trump threatening a 50% tariff on EU imports, which may disrupt market risk appetite temporarily. However, China's core assets still hold low-positioning value due to domestic demand resilience, industrial chain upgrades, and policy support [2][25] - OpenAI's acquisition of the AI hardware startup io for $6.5 billion marks its entry into the hardware sector, indicating a strategic shift from a "pure software ecosystem" to an "end-side closed-loop" strategy. This move is expected to lower the technical usage threshold and accelerate the commercialization of AI applications in consumer scenarios [2][25] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability; 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see growth due to policy incentives and technological empowerment; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, which will benefit from consumption policies promoting cinema recovery [3][26] Industry Data - The top three films at the box office are "Dumpling Queen" with 31.83 million yuan (21.10% market share), "Hunting Gold: Game" with 29.16 million yuan (19.40% market share), and "Life Opens the Door" with 25.13 million yuan (16.70% market share) [4][63]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 资本市场服务科技创新的政策举措密集出 台；险资长投改革试点规模继续扩容 [Table_Title2] 非银金融周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周（2025. 5.18-2025. 5.24）A 股日均交易额 11,8 70 亿元，环比减少 4.9%，同比增加 36 .0%。20 25 年二季度至今 日均成交额 12,4 47 亿元,较 2024 年二季度日均交易额增加 50.2%。202 5 年至今日均成交额 14,17 6 亿元,较 2024 年日均 交易额增加 62.7 %。投行：本周发行新股 2 家，募集资金 46.7 亿元；本周上市新股 2 家，募集资金 15. 5 亿元。202 5 年至今，A 股 IPO 上市 42 家，募集金额 2 76.0 亿元。2 024 年，A 股 IPO 上市 100 家，募集金额 673.5 亿元。两融：截至 2025 年 5 月 22 日，两市两融余额 18,089.97 亿元，环比增加 0.03%，较 20 24 年日均水平增加 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 4.75% to $3,357.70 per ounce and SHFE gold increasing 3.76% to ¥780.10 per gram [1][27] - The U.S. economic uncertainty and global trade dynamics are prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with expectations of continued price appreciation [3][48] - The ongoing U.S.-EU tariff tensions and the recent U.S. debt auction results have contributed to the volatility in the market, reinforcing the attractiveness of precious metals [3][47] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased significantly, with COMEX gold up 4.75% and SHFE gold up 3.76% [1][27] - The gold-silver ratio has risen by 0.99% to 99.81, indicating a stronger performance of gold relative to silver [27] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 119,821.97 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 9,728,859.30 ounces [27] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.76% to $9,614.00 per ton, while aluminum fell by 0.62% to $2,466.00 per ton [52] - SHFE copper prices decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,790.00 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 0.12% to ¥20,155.00 per ton [52] - The overall sentiment in the base metals market remains mixed, with supply concerns and fluctuating demand impacting prices [7][52] Small Metals - The price of magnesium has increased by 0.11% to ¥18,780 per ton, reflecting strong pricing power among manufacturers [14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, with molybdenum iron at ¥227,500 per ton [15] - The market for small metals is currently stable, with limited price fluctuations observed [15][80]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The company produced 150,000 pounds of U3O8 in Q1 2025 and plans to produce 1,000,000 pounds of finished U3O8 by the end of 2025 [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its uranium sales guidance for 2025, with a commitment to deliver 250,000 pounds of U3O8 to a major U.S. utility [3][9]. - The current spot price for U3O8 is $70.00 per pound, while the long-term price is $80.00 per pound [4]. - The company holds a total inventory of 1,310,000 pounds of U3O8 as of March 31, 2025, which includes finished goods and raw materials [5]. - The company expects to process approximately 700,000 to 1,000,000 pounds of U3O8 in 2025, a significant increase from previous guidance [22]. Summary by Sections Uranium Business - The company purchased 50,000 pounds of U3O8 at $64.75 per pound, anticipating future price increases [2]. - The company mined 15,000 pounds of U3O8 from stored alternative materials and newly mined ore in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company has increased its uranium mining guidance for 2025 based on higher-grade ore extraction from the Pinyon Plain mine [6][14]. - The company plans to continue mining and storing uranium at its Pinyon Plain, La Sal, and Pandora mines, expecting to produce between 55,000 to 80,000 tons of ore by 2025 [8]. Rare Earth Business - The company has successfully separated approximately 37 tons of praseodymium and neodymium oxide from its new rare earth element separation circuit [12]. - The company is developing technology for large-scale production of various rare earth oxides and plans to expand its separation facilities by 2028 [12][15]. Heavy Mineral Sands - In Q1 2025, the company sold 6,836 tons of ilmenite, 12,852 tons of titanium iron ore, and 1,429 tons of zircon, generating total revenue of $15.54 million [16]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $16.898 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of 33.5% year-over-year, primarily due to no uranium sales during the quarter [20]. - The company recorded a net loss of $26.3 million in Q1 2025, attributed to increased mining activities and operational costs [20]. - As of Q1 2025, the company has $214.61 million in working capital, including $73 million in cash and cash equivalents [21].

[Table_Title] 银行负债端仍有压力 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：央行加力呵护流动性，资金利率先下后上 5 月 19-23 日，经历前一周五（16 日）的资金波动后，央行投放力度明显提 升。央行逆回购净投放 4600 亿元，与此同时，央行还开展 2400 亿元的国库现金定 存投放，以及 3750 亿元 MLF 净投放。 在央行加码流动性投放的背景下，资金面延续渐进修复趋势，不过在税期走款 首日边际收紧。周一至周四（19-22 日）资金价格逐步下台阶，隔夜利率由上周五 的 1.6%水平修复至 1.4%-1.5%区间，7 天资金价格同样降至 1.5%水平。周五（23 日）在特别国债发行和税期走款首日的影响下，资金面边际收敛，DR001、R001 单日均上行 9bp，分别至 1.57%、1.61%，7 天资金利率同样抬升，DR007、R007 分别升至 1.59%、1.63%。 ►展望：季节性因素影响或占上峰，资金面还需依赖央行呵护 近两周，1年期 Shibor 利率再度下探1.67%的年内低点，之后在1.67%-1.68% 区间窄幅震荡，继续下行动力 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the production and sales of rare earth concentrates and NdPr products, indicating strong operational performance despite a decrease in sales volume for rare earth concentrates [1][2]. - Financial performance shows a 25% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by increased production of separated products, although adjusted EBITDA has declined due to rising sales costs [3][5]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, rare earth concentrate production reached 12,213 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year, while sales decreased by 33% to 6,264 tons [1]. - NdPr production surged by 330% year-on-year to 563 tons, with sales increasing by 246% to 464 tons [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $60.81 million, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the previous year, primarily due to higher sales of separated products [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $1.5 million to -$2.7 million, attributed to rising sales costs and administrative expenses [3][5]. Business Segment Performance - The materials segment reported a 14% revenue increase to $55.62 million, driven by a significant rise in NdPr sales, although the average price per kg fell by 16% [6][10]. - The magnetic materials segment generated $5.19 million in revenue, marking the first sales of precursor products, which contributed to a positive EBITDA of $0.49 million [8].

分析师 [Table_Author] 分析师：王一棠 邮箱：wangyt3@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521080003 证券研究报告|市场分析研究专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 发达市场存在中期压力，新兴市场走势分化 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 一、美股市场存在中期下跌的压力。经历今年 4 月 7 日之后的超 跌反弹，现阶段标普 500 已经出现了回调压力，SAR 最近日线已 经进入绿色区间，KDJ 指标开始进入空头排列状态，成交量开始 萎缩，且标普 500 席勒市盈率处于偏高位状态，预计现阶段美股 市场将从 B 浪反弹浪往 C 浪杀跌浪过渡，叠加美国债务问题和特 朗普关税政策的反复以及经济政策的不确定性，美股市场未来整 体来看会有进一步回调。费城半导体指数最近日线反弹到年线附 近受阻，出现了缩量调整态势，SAR 最近日线开始进入绿色区 间，KDJ 指标也进入空头排列状态，以及市盈率近期快速上升， 再叠加关税不确定性可能引发的基本面问题，预计费城半导体指 数还将出现进一步回调。TAMAMA 自今年 4 月 ...

Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank increased liquidity support, with a net injection of CNY 4,600 billion through reverse repos from May 19-23, alongside CNY 2,400 billion in treasury cash deposits and CNY 3,750 billion in MLF operations[1] - The average daily lending scale in the banking system decreased to CNY 30,000 billion from CNY 37,000 billion the previous week, indicating pressure on the liability side of banks[2] - The 1-year Shibor rate fell to a year-to-date low of 1.67% but showed limited downward momentum thereafter, fluctuating between 1.67%-1.68%[2] Market Trends - The overnight rates decreased from 1.6% to a range of 1.4%-1.5% during the week, but increased marginally on May 23 due to special treasury bond issuance and tax payments[1] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.67%, up 2 basis points from the previous week, after two weeks of decline[6] - The net issuance of government bonds decreased to CNY 3,531 billion for the period of May 26-30, down from CNY 4,380 billion the previous week[5] Interbank Market Activity - The central bank's reverse repos maturing from May 26-30 amount to CNY 9,460 billion, indicating significant liquidity management ahead of the month-end[3] - Major banks net sold CNY 169 billion in bills from May 19-22, with cumulative net purchases of CNY 2,418 billion for May[4] - The weighted average maturity of interbank certificates of deposit increased to 6.2 months, reflecting a shift in issuance strategy among banks[6] Risk Factors - Potential liquidity changes may arise from unexpected economic data or adjustments in monetary policy, which could impact market stability[5]

[Table_Title] 全球多数市场将进入进一步调整阶段 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于特朗普贸易政策的反复和美国债务 问题，以及全球地缘问题和经济政策的不确定性，预计未来一 段时间全球多数市场将进入调整阶段。本周美股市场出现回 调，周内多个交易日波动偏多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率仍有 32，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈 率为 45.3，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比 较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.7，仍然临近 40 的偏高 位区间，由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加美股科技股新一轮技 术看点尚未出现，叠加特朗普政策的影响，美股科技股仍然容 易出现回调；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 容易出现进一步回 调；英伟达、微软、脸书、亚马逊等美股巨头由于最近估值上 升较快，预计存在回调消化的空间。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率 为 35.64，仍然明显高于历史平均数和中位数。由于美国经济政 策的不 ...