[Table_Title] 海外风电市场突破可期，固态电池产业化推进 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 光伏各环节尝试稳价 一方面，传统市场装机维持高位+海外新型市场需求快速释放，全 球光伏装机需求总量仍较为可观，根据 CPIA 预测，2025 年全球 光伏新增装机规模有望达到 531-583GW，乐观情况下同比增速可 达 10%；另一方面，5 月 20 日国家发改委召开新闻发布会，其中 国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超表示，国家发 改委针对内卷式竞争问题症结，因业施策、对症下药、标本兼 治，化解重点产业结构性矛盾，促进产业健康发展和升级，我们 认为，应重点关注光伏供给侧变化，具备产能规模、成本控制及 资金储备优势的头部企业有望穿越此轮行业周期。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 特斯拉发布 Optimus 执行家务任务视频 我们认为，随着机器人进入具身智能阶段，应用场景落地加 快，商业化有望推动人形机器人量产落地；在降本需求的驱动 下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Since mid-May, the bond market has entered a phase of consistent expectations due to the easing of US-China tensions and deposit rate cuts, leading to narrow fluctuations in long-duration bonds[1] - The recent weak issuance of government bonds reflects insufficient market allocation power, with a bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year special treasury bond at only 1.68 times, significantly lower than 9.50 times earlier in the month[20][21] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand mismatch is a core issue in the current bond market, with government bond balances increasing by 20.7% year-on-year, while bank liabilities only grew by 7.4%, creating pressure on banks to absorb new government debt[21] - In Q1 2025, insurance premium income grew by only 0.9%, with life insurance premiums declining by 1.0%, limiting the appetite for long-duration government bonds[23] Group 3: Future Expectations - The supply pressure is expected to ease in June and July, with government bond maturities decreasing to approximately CNY 1.32 trillion, leading to a projected net supply of only CNY 1 trillion[3][27] - The net issuance of government bonds for the second half of 2025 is estimated at CNY 5.62 trillion, a significant reduction of CNY 2.23 trillion compared to 2024[27] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The bond market may experience a slight downward trend in the short term, with a recommended strategy of focusing on 3-5 year credit bonds and trading long-duration rate bonds within a 10-year treasury yield range of 1.6%-1.7%[36] - If the insurance industry sees a cost reduction in life insurance products, it may lead to increased demand for long-duration bonds, prompting early market positioning[27]

Market Review - From May 19 to 23, the equity market showed a significant pullback after a rise, with the Wind All A closing at 5075.37, down 0.63% from May 16[8] - The China Securities 2000 index reached a historical high of 2.89 in trading volume ratio, indicating a crowded small-cap market, which led to a notable decline post-May 21[11] - The overall market experienced a near "broad decline" on May 23 due to profit-taking concerns as large-cap stocks also faced high gains since May[1] Overseas Market Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, raising concerns about the U.S. budget deficit, which reignited the "Sell America" trade, causing U.S. stocks to decline by approximately 2.47%[26][29] - U.S. long-term bond yields surged, with the 10-year and 30-year yields rising to 4.508% and 5.030%, respectively, reflecting market skepticism about U.S. debt sustainability[26][27] Strategy and Historical Insights - Historical data shows that after the release of crowded small-cap risks, the index tends to recover significantly, with past recovery durations averaging 27 to 40 days and corresponding gains of 19.02% to 37.56%[31][38] - The current market conditions suggest that if the index continues to adjust, potential declines for the China Securities 2000 could range from 15.22% to 34.54% based on historical patterns[35][37] Bond Market Dynamics - Convertible bond valuations have shown structural changes, with equity-type bonds declining while debt-type bonds have risen, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[19] - As of May 23, the valuation center for bonds with an 80 yuan par value was 46.45%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week, while the 130 yuan par value saw a decrease to 7.11%[19][24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Trade uncertainties have resurfaced, with President Trump threatening a 50% tariff on EU imports, which may disrupt market risk appetite temporarily. However, China's core assets still hold low-positioning value due to domestic demand resilience, industrial chain upgrades, and policy support [2][24] - OpenAI's acquisition of the AI hardware startup io for $6.5 billion marks its entry into the hardware sector, indicating a strategic shift from a "pure software ecosystem" to an "end-side closed-loop" strategy. This move is expected to lower the technical usage threshold and accelerate the commercialization of AI applications in consumer scenarios [2][43] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability; 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see growth due to policy incentives and technological empowerment; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, which will benefit from consumption policies promoting cinema recovery [3][25] Industry Data - The top three films at the box office are "Dumpling Queen" with a revenue of 31.83 million yuan (21.10% market share), "Hunting Gold: Game" with 29.16 million yuan (19.40%), and "Life Opens the Door" with 25.13 million yuan (16.70%) [4][58]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The automotive industry is accelerating its layout in humanoid robots, with a projected global market size of $15.1 billion (approximately 110.7 billion RMB) by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 56% [10][14] - Major automotive companies such as GAC, SAIC, BYD, Xiaopeng, and Chery, along with supply chain firms like Huawei and Horizon Robotics, are entering the humanoid robot sector [10][14] - Xiaopeng plans to launch its fifth-generation humanoid robot by 2026, emphasizing the convergence of smart cars and robots as a unified industry [27][28] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Companies Accelerating Humanoid Robot Development - The automotive sector is increasingly investing in humanoid robots, with 15 domestic companies already involved [10][14] - Xiaopeng has introduced two generations of humanoid robots, with plans for further advancements [22][25] 2. Intelligent Driving Technology Upgrades - The competition between pure vision and multi-sensor fusion for intelligent driving technology continues to evolve, with significant investments from companies like Tesla and Huawei [30][41] - The market for lidar technology is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 68% year-on-year by 2024 [39] 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in the robotics sector include Xiangxin Technology, Qin'an Co., Xinzhi Group, and others [12][45] - In the intelligent driving sector, recommended companies include Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, and Jianghuai Automobile [12][45] 4. Market Performance Overview - The computer industry saw a weekly decline of 3.02%, ranking 31st among major sectors [46] - The overall market performance indicates a challenging environment for the computer sector, with a slight year-to-date decline of 0.11% [50]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 25 日 本周沪锡价格小幅下跌，Bisie 首批锡精矿已 进入物流环节 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，沪镍持续去库 截止到 5 月 23 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,205.00 美 元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.49%，LME 镍总库存为 198,636.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日增加 1.75%；沪镍报收 12.31 万元/吨，较 5 月 16 日下跌 1.25%，沪镍库存为 26,955.00 吨，较 5 月 16 日 减少 2.84%；截止到 5 月 16 日，硫酸镍报收 28,900.00 元/吨， 较 5 月 16 日价格持平。根据 SMM 周报，硫酸镍方面，需求 端表现方面，经过 5 月行业去库存后，部分前驱体生产企业 6 月排产计划趋于乐观，对硫酸镍的询价活跃度显著提升，且 企业对镍盐价格的接受度有所增强。供应端来看，部分镍盐生 产企业受需求增长及原料库存紧张影响，上调了产品报价系 数，另有部分企业报价维持稳 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is accelerating its layout in humanoid robots, with the global humanoid robot market expected to reach USD 15.1 billion (approximately RMB 110.7 billion) by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 56% [10][14] - Major automotive companies such as GAC, SAIC, BYD, Xiaopeng, and Chery, along with supply chain firms like Huawei and Horizon Robotics, are entering the humanoid robot sector [10][14] - Xiaopeng plans to launch its fifth-generation humanoid robot by 2026, emphasizing the convergence of smart vehicles and robots, which could create synergistic effects [10][27] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Companies Accelerating Robot Layout - Automotive companies are increasingly investing in humanoid robots, with 15 domestic firms already involved [10][14] - The establishment of Beijing Saihang Embodied Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. by Seres and Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics marks a significant step in humanoid robot development [10][17] - Xiaopeng's strategy includes the integration of smart vehicles and humanoid robots, aiming for a new industrial breakthrough [10][27] 2. Intelligent Driving Technology Upgrade - The shift towards humanoid robots is also seen in the autonomous driving sector, with companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, and NIO exploring low-speed autonomous robots for various applications [11][43] - The competition between pure vision and multi-sensor fusion approaches in intelligent driving technology is intensifying [30][41] 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in the robot sector include Xiangxin Technology, Qin'an Co., Xinzhi Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Seres [12][45] - For intelligent driving, recommended stocks include Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, and Jianghuai Automobile [12][45] 4. Market Performance Overview - The computer industry experienced a weekly decline of 3.02%, ranking 31st among major industries [46][50] - The overall market performance indicates a challenging environment for the computer sector, with a cumulative decline of 0.11% since the beginning of the year [50]

Market Review - Global major stock indices mostly retreated this week, with the US, France, Japan, and South Korea leading the decline. The US assets faced a "triple hit" from stocks, bonds, and currencies. The yield on overseas long-term bonds mostly rose, with 30-year Japanese, US, and German bond yields increasing further, leading to heightened market risk aversion. The A-share market saw a volume contraction and rapid rotation of themes, with some funds cashing out from small-cap stocks while dividend stocks showed resilience. Among major A-share indices, the dividend index slightly rose, while the CSI 2000 and STAR 50 indices experienced the largest declines. In commodities, gold prices rose while energy prices fell, and domestic coking coal prices continued to hit new lows. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell below 100, leading to appreciation of non-US currencies [1][2]. Market Outlook - Class-balanced funds are expected to support the stable operation of A-shares. Recent global risk aversion has risen due to the fluctuating US tariff policies and rising overseas long-term bond yields, which may indirectly affect A-share sentiment. Meanwhile, China's regulatory authorities have repeatedly expressed their commitment to safeguarding stock market risk preferences. Subsequent inflows from social security, insurance, and pension funds are expected to continue, forming a virtuous cycle with A-shares showing stability and gradual growth. Structurally, since early April, the trading congestion in small-cap stocks has significantly increased, necessitating attention to the volatility effects brought by crowded positions. Key areas of focus in the market include: - Industry allocation should be balanced, with recommendations to pay attention to gold, new consumption, AI applications (software and hardware), and innovative pharmaceuticals. Thematic investments should focus on military industry, self-control, and mergers and acquisitions [2][4]. Analysis of Overseas Factors - The repeated fluctuations in US tariff policies and rising overseas long-term bond yields have led to a resurgence of global risk aversion. On May 23, Trump indicated that negotiations with the EU were "making no progress," suggesting a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which caused significant declines in US and European stock markets. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies remains a critical factor suppressing risk appetite. In the overseas bond market, Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and the auction results for Japanese and US bonds were below expectations, raising investor concerns about the sustainability of debt in developed economies, leading to a general pullback in risk assets [4]. A-share Risk Premium and Market Dynamics - The risk premium of A-shares has returned to pre-tariff shock levels, indicating that further improvement in risk appetite requires support from fundamental expectations. This week, the risk premium of the CSI 300 index (1/PE - 10-year Chinese government bond yield) fell to 6.2%, reflecting that the impact of tariffs on market sentiment has largely been repaired. Future improvements in risk appetite will need verification from economic fundamentals or sustained macro policies. April's economic data showed strong export growth supported by re-exports, but domestic real estate sales and second-hand housing prices remained weak, with new credit also falling short of market expectations, indicating that insufficient domestic demand remains a primary constraint. Since the Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25, which proposed "four stability" goals, various ministries have introduced policies to stabilize employment and the economy, including interest rate cuts, stabilizing the real estate market, stock market, and foreign trade, as well as supporting the private economy. The implementation of these incremental policies is expected to boost domestic demand and improve consumer confidence, countering uncertainties from external environmental changes with the certainty of high-quality development [4]. Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Since May, the inflow of incremental funds into the market has slowed marginally, with some previous concentrated small-cap funds experiencing profit-taking sentiment. As the risk premium of A-shares has recovered to pre-tariff shock levels, the marginal inflow of funds has slowed: the issuance scale of equity funds in May has decreased compared to April; the net subscription amount of ETFs in April was 183.5 billion yuan, while it has turned into a net redemption of 53.7 billion yuan in May; and the net buying amount of financing funds has also shown a slowdown in recent weeks. The A-share market has seen reduced trading volume, with rapid rotation of thematic concepts. The trading volume of the Wind Micro-cap Index and the CSI 2000 accounted for 2.7% and 33.3% of total A-share trading volume this week, respectively, reaching the 99.2% and 99.8% percentiles since 2021, indicating significant congestion in small-cap trading since the recovery trend began in early April, necessitating attention to the impact of profit-taking funds flowing out [4]. Regulatory Support and Market Stability - Regulatory voices have emphasized stabilizing the stock market and expectations, with class-balanced funds supporting the bottom range of the market. On May 19, the vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated at the 2025 Global Investor Conference that since the beginning of the year, social security, insurance, and pension funds have cumulatively net bought over 200 billion yuan of A-shares, reflecting a virtuous cycle of accelerated inflow of long-term funds and stable growth in the stock market. In terms of insurance capital entering the market, the Financial Regulatory Administration indicated that it will approve a third batch of 600 billion yuan for long-term investment reform trials, adding to the previous two batches, totaling 222 billion yuan. According to prior estimates, since 2022, the proportion of insurance funds holding A-shares has been on the rise, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.57 percentage points in the first quarter of this year. Looking ahead, the entry of "national teams," insurance funds, and social security into the market will strongly support the bottom range, aiding A-shares in maintaining stability and gradual growth [4].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 结构风险，右侧博弈 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：小微盘压力有所显现 ► 策略：若指数继续调整，把握博弈机会 以史为鉴，当小微盘相对拥挤的风险释放之后，指数大概率 持续回升。近年来三段小微盘拥挤的调整之后（2023 年末- 2024 年初、2024 年末-2025 年初和 2025 年 3-4 月），其行情 均迎来显著修复。 展望后续行情，在本轮行情继续调整的情况下，若外部压力 增大，指数可能会加速回落。同时，稳市预期&政策预期升 温，为行情提供支撑，"国家队"实际稳市行为或较快推动行 情企稳回升。若外部压力并未明显增大，同时政策或产业出 现亮点，行情可能在温和下跌后企稳。 关于如何参与修复行情，我们认为博弈反弹或是相对稳健的 方法。从历史三段行情来看，中证 2000 企稳后的修复行情持 续天数分别为 27、40 和 27，对应涨幅分别为 37.56%、23.14% 和 19.02%。若滞后 3 日参与反弹行情，平均收益能够达到 18.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The real - estate market shows a mixed performance. Second - hand housing transactions in 15 cities have a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year slowdown, and new housing transactions in 38 cities also have a month - on - month increase with a narrowing year - on - year decline. Different city tiers and individual cities have different trends in both second - hand and new housing transactions [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Second - hand Housing Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week of May 16 - 22, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.55 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of about 4%, but the year - on - year growth rate was lower than that in March and April. The month - on - month growth rate was better than that of the same period last year and 2023 [1]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities had a month - on - month decline of 1.2%, while second - and third - tier cities had month - on - month increases of 7.3% and 9.0% respectively. Year - on - year, all three tiers of cities had growth, but the growth rates were narrower than those in March and April [1][2]. - **Individual City Analysis**: In first - tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai had month - on - month declines of 2.3% and 2.0% respectively, while Shenzhen had a 3.8% increase. In second - tier cities, Chengdu had a large increase of 10.7%, and cities like Qingdao, Hangzhou, etc. had increases between 1% - 6% [1]. New Housing Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week of May 16 - 22, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 2.84 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of about 4%. The year - on - year decline was narrowing [2]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First, second, and third - tier cities all had month - on - month increases in new housing transactions, with increases of 10%, 6%, and 14% respectively. Year - on - year, first - and second - tier cities still had declines, while third - tier cities had a 12.8% growth [2]. - **Individual City Analysis**: In first - tier cities, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai had month - on - month increases of 23%, 19%, and 2% respectively. In second - tier cities, Chengdu and Qingdao had large increases, while Hangzhou and Jinan had declines [2]. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen Observation - **Second - hand Housing**: From May 16 - 22, the week - on - week transaction area of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 1%. Beijing and Shanghai both decreased by 2%, while Shenzhen increased by 4%. Year - on - week and year - on - month, all three cities had growth [16]. - **New Housing**: From May 16 - 22, the week - on - week transaction area of new housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 10%. Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen had increases of 23%, 2%, and 19% respectively. The comparison with last year's high - point and year - on - week and year - on - month data showed different trends [16]. Hangzhou and Chengdu Observation - **Hangzhou**: The week - on - week transaction area of second - hand housing increased by 1%, and that of new housing decreased by 22% in the week of May 16 - 22, equivalent to 69% and 14% of the 2024 high - point respectively [17]. - **Chengdu**: The week - on - week transaction area of second - hand housing increased by 11% and that of new housing increased by 20% compared with the pre - holiday week, equivalent to 77% and 68% of the 2024 high - point respectively [17]. Housing Price Observation From May 12 - 18, the week - on - week listing prices of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.42%, 0.19%, and 0.51% respectively. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the listing prices of second - hand housing in these three cities still decreased [40].