Group 1: Core Insights - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 120 million, with food delivery surpassing 100 million and Meituan Flash Purchase exceeding 20 million [1][2] - The company has increased its delivery subsidies in June, leading to an estimated 16% year-on-year decline in CLC operating profit, but food delivery order growth is expected to rise from mid-single digits to 10% [1][2] - Despite ongoing subsidy wars, Meituan is likely to maintain operational profit stability, with a target price of HKD 165, indicating a potential upside of 36.6% from the current price of HKD 120.80 [1][2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The average order value (AOV) may decline due to the subsidy competition, which could further slow revenue growth [2] - CLC revenue growth is projected to remain at 10% year-on-year, with profits expected to decrease by 9% [2] - The closure of Meituan Youxuan's loss-making areas could release approximately 3-4 billion yuan to support future delivery subsidies [2] Group 3: Market Position - Meituan continues to hold a leading position in the food delivery market, with strong operational capabilities and a high likelihood of maintaining market share [1][2] - The company’s operational and dispatch efficiency remains crucial for sustaining its market dominance [2]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 7 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 120.80 | 港元 | 165.00 | +36.6% | | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | | 外卖日单峰值突破 1 亿，运营能力仍有优势，维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 386,213 | 437,899 | 474,235 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 8.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 23,253 | 43,772 | 43,485 | 58,982 | 66,969 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.71 | 7.00 | 7.01 | 9.51 ...

Global Macro - Strong non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with June non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, exceeding market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% [1][2] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%. This strong employment data reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors launched the G7 model at a starting price of 195,800 yuan, which is 40,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price, exceeding expectations [3] - The G7 focuses on family comfort and smart technology, showcasing competitive advantages in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market compared to competitors like Model Y and Xiaomi YU7 [3][6] - XPeng's sales in the first half of 2025 exceeded 197,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target. The G7's launch is expected to sustain sales growth in the second half of the year [6] Internet Industry - Tencent's mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 17% in Q2, while NetEase's mobile game revenue shows positive year-on-year growth, with domestic revenue increasing by 4% [9][10] - The performance of Tencent's games was impacted by a high base from previous releases, while new games like "Delta Action" and established titles contributed to mitigating losses [10] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include U.S. consumer credit and unemployment claims, as well as China's consumer price index and trade surplus figures [11]

Global Macro - The strong non-farm payroll data for June shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2% [1] - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, providing more policy space amid ongoing pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 26.7% to 4.3% and the September cut probability slightly decreasing from 69.1% to 62.4% [1] Employment Analysis - The ADP report earlier indicated a decline of 33,000 jobs, highlighting a key difference as it only accounts for private sector employment, excluding government jobs [2] - Government sector added 73,000 jobs, contributing half of the non-farm employment increase, primarily from state and local governments, while federal employment decreased by 7,000 [2] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly to 74,000, down from 137,000 in May, with most growth in lower-skilled sectors such as education and healthcare [2][3] - The labor force participation rate has declined for three consecutive months, contributing to the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs has led to a tighter labor market, particularly affecting low-skilled labor supply [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected strong non-farm data significantly reduces the urgency for rate cuts in the short term, with July lacking sufficient justification for a cut [4] - Future rate cuts may depend on inflation data, with the next potential window for a cut possibly in the fourth quarter as tariff-related inflation effects dissipate [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a patient approach in assessing data changes, avoiding aggressive policy adjustments in a high uncertainty environment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors (9868 HK) with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 82.1% from the current price of HKD 73.95 [9][11]. Core Insights - The launch of the XPeng G7 on July 3, 2025, features three models with prices ranging from RMB 195,800 to RMB 225,800, showcasing a significant price reduction of RMB 40,000 from the pre-launch price [3]. - The XPeng G7 is positioned as a competitive option in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market, emphasizing value for money, comfort, and advanced technology [3]. - The report highlights the G7's superior space and intelligent features compared to competitors like the Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y, with a focus on its AI capabilities and overall driving experience [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The XPeng G7 was officially launched with three variants priced between RMB 195,800 and RMB 225,800, with the 702 km range version prioritized for delivery [3]. - The pricing strategy reflects a competitive edge against similar models in the market, particularly against the Xiaomi YU7 and Tesla Model Y [3]. Competitive Analysis - The G7's pricing is significantly lower than that of the Tesla Model Y (RMB 263,500 to RMB 313,500) and Xiaomi YU7 (RMB 223,500 to RMB 329,900), enhancing its attractiveness in the market [3][4]. - In terms of specifications, the G7 offers a larger body size and superior intelligent features, including three self-developed AI chips with a total computing power exceeding 2200 TOPS [3][4]. Performance and Technology - The G7 features a single rear motor with a maximum power of 218 kW, a top speed of 202 km/h, and a battery capacity of 80.8 kWh, achieving a CLTC range of 702 km [3]. - The vehicle supports 800V fast charging, allowing a charge from 10% to 80% in just 18 minutes, enhancing its long-distance travel convenience [3]. Market Outlook - XPeng Motors has delivered over 197,000 vehicles in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target [3]. - The report anticipates continued sales growth with the introduction of new models and the upcoming launch of the XPeng Kunpeng hybrid model in Q4 2025 [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance of Hong Kong stocks in the first half of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index recording returns of 20% and 18.7% respectively, placing them among the top global indices [3][4] - The report identifies a structural tilt in southbound capital allocation towards healthcare and financial sectors, while foreign capital remains focused on technology, indicating a preference for long-term competitiveness and valuation recovery in Hong Kong tech firms [3][4] Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has increased holdings across various sectors, with notable rotations from information technology in Q1 to new consumption in early Q2, and a recent concentration in healthcare and financial sectors [3] - The report notes that foreign capital has marginally increased its position in the information technology sector, while other sectors have seen a decline in market value [3][4] Short Selling Dynamics - The report discusses the short selling landscape, indicating high levels of short selling in cyclical sectors such as telecommunications, real estate, energy, and materials, with minimal changes observed [4] - Consumer sectors show a clear divergence, with stable essential consumption contrasting with rising short selling in discretionary consumption [4] - The concentration of short selling in the information technology sector is decreasing, suggesting a convergence of long and short positions, which may indicate reduced volatility and the potential for upward trends [4] Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, supported by foreign capital's continued investment and the convergence of short selling positions, which may lead to lower volatility and emerging trends [4] - The report emphasizes that a transition from a structural market to a comprehensive upward trend in Hong Kong stocks requires stronger fundamental support and policy catalysts [4]

Group 1: Northern Huachuang (北方华创) - The company is positioned as a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, showcasing both growth potential and resilience [1] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market share in China has increased from 13% in 2015 to an estimated 42% in 2024, with Northern Huachuang expected to double its market share by 2025 compared to 2020 [2] - The company’s current valuation at 27 times NTM P/E is close to historical lows, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity with a target price of RMB 530, indicating a potential upside of 19.6% [2] Group 2: Genscript Biotech (云顶新耀) - The company is advancing its platform for reversible mRNA therapies, with promising data from multiple drug candidates [3] - The EVM16 candidate has shown efficacy in mouse models and demonstrated synergy with PD-1 antibodies, while EVM14 is progressing through preclinical studies with potential for inducing immune memory [4] - The EVER001 study for treating membranous nephropathy has reported significant immunological responses, with antibody levels dropping by over 60% after 8-12 weeks [4][7] Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry - Recent policy discussions indicate a shift towards addressing the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry, with expectations for substantive policies to emerge [8] - The report highlights opportunities for leading photovoltaic manufacturers, particularly in glass and silicon production, as the industry seeks to overcome competitive pressures [8] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The report notes a slowdown in the month-on-month growth of new energy vehicle deliveries, with a 17.7% year-on-year increase across 11 manufacturers [9] - BYD's June sales reached 377,628 units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, while Xiaomi's deliveries exceeded 25,000 units despite slight month-on-month declines [10][11] - The overall market is expected to continue its growth trajectory in July, driven by new model launches from various manufacturers [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant policy shift aimed at addressing the overcapacity issues in the photovoltaic sector, with a focus on promoting the exit of outdated production capacities and enhancing product quality [2][5]. - The report notes that the recent comments from high-level meetings reflect a deeper understanding of the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry and a commitment to implementing effective measures [5]. - The report anticipates a turnaround in the supply side of the photovoltaic industry due to forthcoming targeted policies [5]. - It mentions that leading photovoltaic glass manufacturers are planning to collectively reduce production by 30%, which is expected to improve the supply-demand balance [5]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of leading photovoltaic manufacturers, particularly those in the glass and polysilicon sectors, following significant price corrections [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacities and regulate local investment practices that contribute to overcapacity [2]. - The report cites a commentary from the People's Daily that identifies local government actions as a key factor in the current challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the photovoltaic glass production is expected to decline sharply, with July estimates dropping to 45GW, which will help alleviate the current supply-demand imbalance [5]. - It highlights the potential for price recovery in the photovoltaic glass market as a result of reduced production [5]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - Xinyi Solar (968 HK) with a target price of 4.28, indicating a potential upside of 71.9% [6]. - Longi Green Energy (3800 HK) with a target price of 1.49, indicating a potential upside of 49.0% [6]. - Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) with a target price of 11.30, indicating a potential upside of 28.3% [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the automotive sector, including BYD (1211 HK), XPeng Motors (9868 HK), and Geely Automobile (175 HK) [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new energy vehicle (NEV) market continues to grow, with a penetration rate exceeding 50% for three consecutive months, although the month-on-month growth rate has slowed [2][4]. - BYD remains the industry leader with June sales of 377,628 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2][7]. - Xiaomi's new SUV model YU7 shows strong market potential, with over 240,000 orders within 18 hours of launch, indicating robust brand appeal [3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in NEV sales in July, driven by new model launches and promotional activities [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Performance - BYD: June sales reached 377,628 units, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. Exports surged by 230% year-on-year [2][7]. - Xiaomi: Delivered over 25,000 units in June, with a slight decline due to capacity allocation for the YU7 launch [3]. - XPeng: Achieved 34,611 units in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 224% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [3][7]. - Li Auto: Delivered 36,279 units in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.2% [3][7]. - NIO: Reported 24,925 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [4][7]. - Leap Motor: Delivered 48,006 units in June, with a year-on-year increase of 138.6% [4][7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that July will see the launch of several new models, including XPeng G7, NIO L90, and Li Auto i8, which will enhance market supply [4]. - The NEV market is expected to maintain growth momentum, although the month-on-month growth rate may continue to slow [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 72.50, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current closing price of HKD 62.20 [1][27]. Core Insights - The mRNA platform development is progressing steadily, with excellent data on the reversible BTK inhibitor for membranous nephropathy. The target price has been raised to reflect these developments [2][6]. - The company has showcased its fully integrated and localized AI + mRNA platform, highlighting several mRNA tumor drug developments, including personalized and universal therapeutic vaccines [6]. - The reversible BTK inhibitor EVER001 has shown promising results in clinical trials for treating membranous nephropathy, with significant reductions in anti-PLA2R antibody levels and urinary protein levels [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 126 million - 2024: RMB 707 million - 2025E: RMB 1,660 million - 2026E: RMB 2,552 million - 2027E: RMB 3,752 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 884.5% for 2023, 461.2% for 2024, and 134.9% for 2025 [5][28]. - The net profit (loss) is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 844 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 743 million by 2027 [5][28]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 20.2 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 13.36 million shares [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a peak sales estimate for EVER001 exceeding RMB 1.5 billion, with a target valuation of HKD 72.50 corresponding to a market cap of HKD 237 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.8 times at peak revenue [6][24]. - The company’s financial forecasts have been adjusted, reflecting a more cautious outlook on product revenue ramp-up, with slight downward revisions in revenue estimates for 2025-2027 [6][23].