交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 14 日 行业推荐上，建议仍聚焦三条主线：1）科技创新主线，包括科技硬件（ 半导体、新能源汽车产业链等）、互联网科技（人工智能、云计算等领 域）。2）高股息主线：关注银行、公用事业和电信运营商。3）政策红 利主线：券商、保险等金融服务机构，以及港股优质消费龙头。 | | | | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 23,108 | -2.08 | 13.25 | | 国指 | 8,386 | -2.02 | 15.04 | | 上 A | 3,537 | 0.17 | 0.67 | | 上 B | 261 | -0.46 | -2.47 | | 深 A | 2,092 | -0.20 | 2.19 | | 深 B | 1,192 | 0.17 | -1.73 | | 道指 | 42,140 | -0.64 | -0.95 | | 标普 500 | 5,887 | 0.72 | 0.08 | | 纳指 | 19,010 | 1.61 | -1.56 | | 英国富时100 | 8 ...

Group 1: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - TSMC's advanced process advantages are expanding, with a buy rating initiated and a target price of $225, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the closing price of $176.52 [1] - The product and supply-demand cycles are favorable for stable revenue growth, with new product pricing breaking the previous trend of decline post-launch, enhancing TSMC's bargaining power with semiconductor design clients [1][2] - TSMC is expected to start mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of 2025, which will further strengthen its technological advantages over previous 3nm processes [2] Group 2: Hua Hong Semiconductor - Hua Hong Semiconductor's Q1 2025 performance met guidance, with the ninth factory starting production and adding 10,000 pieces of monthly capacity [3] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between $550 million and $570 million, with a gross margin guidance of 7%-9%, reflecting a decrease from previous expectations due to increased depreciation pressure during capacity ramp-up [3][6] - Management is focused on accelerating capacity ramp-up and controlling costs to mitigate the impact of depreciation on gross margins [3] Group 3: Automotive Industry - In April 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with domestic brands outperforming the overall market [7] - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales recorded 905,000 units in April, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, indicating strong growth compared to the previous year [7][8] - The report anticipates stable growth in the automotive market for May 2025, with a focus on the performance of new energy vehicle exports, which are expected to maintain high growth rates [8]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC's revenue for 2025 is projected to be NT$3.76 trillion, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.8%[11] - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is NT$60.8, with projections of NT$69.6 and NT$78.2 for 2026 and 2027 respectively[28] - Gross margin is expected to be 58.1% in 2025, slightly decreasing to 56.8% by 2027[27] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - TSMC is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for advanced process nodes, particularly in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors[8] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in advanced process technology, with 2nm technology contributing 5% and 12% of revenue in 2025 and 2026 respectively[12] - TSMC's market capitalization is approximately $1.73 trillion, with a 52-week high of $224.62 and a low of $141.37[7] Group 3: Investment and Capital Expenditure - TSMC plans to invest between $38 billion and $42 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, with a capital expenditure intensity of around 34%[14] - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., with an additional investment of $100 billion for new fabs and R&D centers[16] - The capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be $45.5 billion, indicating a continued commitment to growth[14] Group 4: Valuation and Stock Performance - TSMC's ADR target price is set at $225, based on a 24x P/E ratio for the projected EPS of NT$60.8 in 2025[55] - The current trading P/E ratio is approximately 18x, aligning with the historical average since 2015[55] - The stock is expected to experience a potential upside of 27.5% from the current price to the target price[4]

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 5 月 12 日 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 503.25 | 387.00 | 23.284 | 27.386 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 3.38 | 2.66 | 0.1 | | 吉利汽车 | 175 HK | 买入 | 22.50 | 18.36 | 1.182 | 1.437 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 1.80 | 1. ...

工业与汽车需求或边际改善，关注下半年需求变化：我们观察到，下游特别 是与辅助驾驶相关的汽车应用或是需求旺盛的主要因素。管理层描述总体需 求环境为广泛温和复苏，并认为全年包括智能手机和 IoT 在内需求或在今年 8 月之后才有较好能见度。 维持中性评级：我们认为，公司股价之前一个季度表现符合我们的预期，即 受市场情绪影响股价或出现波动，但由于公司在国产半导体产业链上的龙头 地位叠加估值充分反映公司基本面情况，股价在市场回归基本面之后或在我 们之前的目标价附近区间震荡。我们下调 2025 年公司收入/毛利率预测到 89.5 亿美元/20.8%（前值 94.1 亿美元/20.9%）。我们维持中性评级，调整目 标价到 45 港元（前值 48 港元）。 | 有道 | | DAO US | | --- | --- | --- | | 预计业务调整持续，1 | 季度盈利有望好于预期 | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 8.88 | 目标价: 美元 12.00 | 潜在涨幅: +35.1% | | 孙梦琪 | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com | | 今日焦点 | 中芯国际 | | 981 HK | ...

Consumption Trends - During the 2025 "May Day" holiday, domestic travel reached 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%[1] - Total spending by tourists was 180.27 billion RMB, up 8.0% year-on-year, with an average spending of 574.1 RMB per person, a slight increase of 1.5%[1] - Restaurant and retail revenues showed significant growth due to consumer promotion policies and holiday effects[1] Travel and Transportation - Cross-regional travel volume reached 1.467 billion trips from May 1 to May 5, with a daily average of 293 million trips, marking an 8% increase year-on-year[2] - Road travel accounted for 1.344 billion trips, a 7.6% increase, while rail travel saw a 10.8% increase with 102 million trips[2] Tourism Insights - Long-distance travel orders increased significantly, with destinations like Haikou and Yining seeing over 130% growth[3] - County-level tourism grew by 25% year-on-year, outpacing growth in higher-tier cities by 11 percentage points[3] Accommodation Preferences - Economic hotel bookings surged by 80% year-on-year, while high-end hotel bookings only increased by 15%[6] - Overall hotel occupancy rates exceeded 84%, reflecting a preference for cost-effective lodging options[6] Dining and Retail Performance - Key retail and dining enterprises reported a 6.3% increase in sales, with consumer vouchers playing a significant role in boosting restaurant revenues[7] - Retail sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication devices grew by 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively during the holiday[8] Movie Industry Performance - Box office revenue during the holiday was 747 million RMB, down 51.1% year-on-year, primarily due to limited film supply[9]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The "May Day" holiday data indicates resilience in the consumption market, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and total spending of 180.27 billion RMB, up 8.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The current consumption market shows a clear trend of downscaling and stratification, with county-level tourism gaining popularity and economic hotel bookings outpacing high-end hotels, reflecting a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [4] - Consumer confidence is improving but remains cautious, with spending preferences leaning towards small emotional purchases and premium products, indicating a positive outlook for emerging consumption trends in the current economic environment [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes, with a more hawkish tone emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [5][6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the first anticipated cut now pushed from June to July, maintaining an overall forecast of three cuts for the year [6][8] - The Fed's cautious approach is deemed reasonable, considering potential impacts from tariffs and the lack of clarity regarding future tariff agreements [6] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - AMD - AMD reported Q1 2025 revenue of $7.44 billion, exceeding expectations, with client business performance stable due to increased average selling prices compensating for a decline in shipment volumes [9] - The company anticipates a significant boost in data center revenue in the second half of 2025, driven by the launch of new products MI350 and MI400, with projected growth rates of 25% and 34% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - AMD's valuation is considered attractive, with an updated target price of $142, reflecting a 31x average P/E ratio for 2025/26 [10] Group 4: Automotive Industry - Geely - Geely plans to privatize its subsidiary Zeekr at a price of $2.57 per share, representing a 13.6% premium over the last trading price, aiming to consolidate resources and enhance operational efficiency [11][12] - The privatization is expected to benefit Geely by establishing a unified platform for asset integration, potentially reducing costs and improving sales performance post-integration [12] Group 5: Internet Industry Insights - The domestic mobile game market showed a modest growth of 4% year-on-year in April 2025, with Tencent and NetEase reporting mixed results in their gaming revenues [13] - The U.S. court ruling allowing developers to link to third-party payment platforms may enhance long-term profitability for game developers, indicating a potential shift in the competitive landscape [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile (175 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current closing price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move aims to eliminate redundant investments, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's core models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.8% from 2023 to 2025 [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.53 in 2023 to RMB 1.18 in 2025 [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is significantly lower than its competitors, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, compared to other new entrants like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The anticipated privatization of Zeekr is viewed as a strategic move to consolidate Geely's brand positioning and enhance market competitiveness [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.50, indicating a potential upside of 34.1% from the current price of HKD 16.78 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the privatization of Zeekr, which is expected to further enhance internal resource integration and operational efficiency within Geely. This move is seen as beneficial for Geely's competitive positioning in the market [6]. - Geely's financial projections show significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for Geely to adjust its high-end brand strategy due to declining sales in this segment, particularly for Zeekr's models [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: RMB 179.20 billion in 2023, RMB 240.19 billion in 2024, and RMB 306.89 billion in 2025, with corresponding growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, and 27.8% respectively [5][10]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 5.31 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 16.63 billion in 2024, but expected to decline to RMB 11.90 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 28.5% [5][10]. - The report indicates a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.18 for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.2 [5][10]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's market capitalization is approximately HKD 169.11 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 18.98 and a low of HKD 7.47 [4]. - The report notes that Zeekr's current valuation is low, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 0.3x for 2025, significantly lower than competitors like Xpeng and Li Auto [6]. - The report suggests that the privatization of Zeekr will allow Geely to consolidate its assets and resources, potentially lowering costs and improving overall competitiveness [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the internet industry as "Leading" for the period ending May 2025, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - Domestic mobile game revenue showed a slight increase of 8 million CNY or 8% year-on-year, primarily driven by the game "MDnF" [1]. - Tencent's new game "Delta Action" ranked 6th on the iOS game sales chart as of May 6, 2025, with April revenue exceeding 350 million CNY [1]. - NetEase experienced a year-on-year decline of 5% or 20 million CNY in domestic revenue, mainly due to high base effects from "Nirvana in Fire" [1]. - The report highlights the potential for double-digit growth in overseas mobile game revenue in Q2, despite a 19% decline in Tencent's overseas revenue due to high base effects from "Brawl Stars" [1][21]. Summary by Sections Domestic Mobile Game Performance - In April 2025, the total revenue of tracked top mobile games increased by 4% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month, with a cumulative increase of 5% from January to April 2025 [4][6]. - Tencent's domestic mobile game revenue increased by 8 million CNY or 8% year-on-year, while NetEase's revenue decreased by 5% or 20 million CNY [15][18]. New Game Launches - Tencent's "Delta Action" mobile game launched on April 22, 2025, is estimated to generate 30-40 million CNY in its first month [5]. - NetEase's "Seven Days World" mobile game launched on April 24, 2025, is projected to generate 60-80 million CNY in its first month [5]. Overseas Mobile Game Revenue - Tencent's overseas revenue decreased by 5.3 billion CNY or 19% year-on-year, while NetEase's overseas revenue increased by 70 million CNY or 23% [21]. - The report anticipates that new game contributions will help maintain double-digit growth in overseas mobile game revenue in Q2 2025 [21]. Market Trends and Valuation - The report indicates that the gaming industry is experiencing a normalization in license issuance, which is beneficial for healthy industry development [32]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for key gaming companies is projected at 18.0 for 2025, with Tencent and NetEase having P/E ratios of 17.1 and 14.3, respectively [43].