玻璃：停产预期炒作 观望不宜追高 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-1 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：观望不追高 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货明显反弹，周线报收中阳线。近期上涨原因，一是市场传出大量产线停产传闻，以及少量产线确 实停止投料生产。二是期现商拿货，造成主要地区的产销率提升。供给方面，上周一条产线停产，日熔量继续小幅下降。在停 产消息支持下，沙河湖北中间商提货增加，带动厂家小幅去库。中下游保持刚需采购且数量上进一步缩减，所以库存仍然是向 中游累积。华东华南价格跟随外围市场有所下降，同样是以优惠促销去库为主。需求方面，年前赶工效果较差，加工厂刚需走 弱，整体中下游补货情绪不高。纯碱方面，近期部分厂家检修降荷，供给端压力有所缓解，期货盘面已接近前期低点，观望为 宜。 后市展望：停产传闻造成盘面反弹，但玻璃社会库存压力巨大，仍然存在对近月合约的交割压力。年底需求逐步走弱，贸 易商主要关注回款问题，难有主动拿货动作。技术上看，多方势能占优，但力量减弱。综上，玻璃近 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are favored in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for short - term range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels after a rebound; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][14]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][19][21]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is for range - bound trading; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; jujubes are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][27][29]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs in the near - term are in a weak adjustment at low levels, and caution is advised when chasing high prices in the far - term; eggs' price increase is restricted; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range trading; oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][31][35]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes each product's situation in detail, including factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and policy, and offers corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summaries by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the external environment improved. However, the market's main line rotates quickly, so index futures may trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are favored, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After continuous callbacks, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active bonds have basically retreated to the level before the announcement of treasury bond trading operations. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cut trend, with weak demand. Market participants are generally in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar strengthened last Friday. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period. The supply and demand contradiction is not significant, and the price increase and decrease drivers are both weak. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - **Glass**: The suspension of production rumors caused the futures price to rebound, but the social inventory pressure of glass is huge, and the demand is gradually weakening at the end of the year. It is not advisable to chase high prices for the near - term contract, and it is necessary to wait for the peak - forming signal [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex and severe. The market consumption has shown a good momentum recently, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is still optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations. It is recommended for short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. The supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, and the price may be under pressure. The demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels after a rebound [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, and the supply of nickel ore may be relatively loose. The refined nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel iron has limited upward space. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies moderately [15]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production increased in October, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [15]. - **Silver and Gold**: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions, and to conduct range trading in gold [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the mining license in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde lithium mine. It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is in a low - profit state, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export support may weaken. The overall supply and demand is still weak, but it has a low valuation. It is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The alumina end has high production and high inventory, compressing profits. The supply of caustic soda is high in winter. It is recommended to wait and watch [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is stable, and the upstream has a strong mentality of holding prices. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [27]. - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is mainly in a sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [21]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase in the peak - season, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. However, there may be speculation about the shortage of delivery products. It is recommended for range trading [22]. - **Urea**: The daily output has increased, the agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has increased. The inventory is in a state of high production and high inventory. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [23]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is in a state where the peak season has ended, and the upward pressure is large. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand data is relatively loose, but the recent strong yarn price has driven the rebound of cotton. It is expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: The international oil price has fallen, and the PTA price is in a low - level sideways trend. The supply and demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4500 - 4800 [27]. - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples on the ground and in storage is coming to an end. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend [29]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 40% - 50%, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The price is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [29]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure still exists, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the medium to long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about bullish in the far - term [32]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price trades in a range. In the medium term, the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. In the long term, the production capacity clearance still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to external factors [34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market supply slowdown supports the spot price rebound, but the terminal demand recovery is limited. In the medium to long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean price is supported at 1120 cents, and the domestic supply from November to January is abundant. It is mainly for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points for the November - January basis [35]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to potential positive factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data [40].

长江期货尿素周报： 去库延续 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-12-1 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：去库延续 01 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先跌后涨，12月28日尿素2601合约收盘价1677元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，期间最 高1687元/吨，最低1625元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1636元/吨，较上周上调6元/吨，涨幅0.37%。基差：尿素 主力基差先强后弱，12月28日河南市场主力基差-41元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-41）—（-9）元/吨。价差：尿素 1-5价差先强后弱，12月28日1-5价差-66元/吨，周度运行区间（-73）—（-59）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率86.4%，较上周提升0.55个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率74.44%，较 上周提升1.55个百分点，尿素日均产量20.24万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投有所降温，煤价持稳运行，至11月27日， 山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价900-960元/吨，较上 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and coke, and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is expected to continue weakening [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, and lithium carbonate are recommended for range trading; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][9][11][14] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are recommended for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly [1][18][20][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade in a range; Apples are expected to be bullish in a sideways market; Jujubes are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [1][29][31] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be chased with caution; Eggs are expected to trade in a range; Corn is recommended to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal is recommended for range trading; Oils are expected to trade weakly in the short - term [1][32][33][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market analysis of different industries, including macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also points out that market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns [5][6][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as US inflation, retail sales, and European Central Bank warnings, the main market trends rotate quickly, and index futures may trade sideways in the short - term but are long - term bullish [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positives and sensitive to negatives", with narrow interest rate fluctuations and low odds, resulting in reduced attractiveness for allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cutting trend, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. Market participants are mostly waiting and seeing, and it is recommended for range trading [6][7] - **Rebar**: With an unclear outlook for the Fed's December rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand increased last week, but future demand may decline. Steel prices are expected to trade sideways at low levels due to low valuations and weak drivers [7] - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to continue weakening [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) bring uncertainties, but market consumption is improving, and social inventory is decreasing. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term, with long - term bullish potential [9] - **Aluminum**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed slightly. Demand is entering the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [10] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may affect supply, and the market is in a state of over - supply. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and supply is expected to improve. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US economic data and Fed rate - cut expectations, prices are in an adjustment phase. They are expected to be supported in the medium - term and continue to trade sideways in the short - term [15][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is in a tight balance, and demand is strong. Prices are expected to continue a strong sideways trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to mine production and permits [18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to trade weakly in a sideways market, but attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, caustic soda's valuation is suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short - term. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to pure benzene prices and crude oil [21][22] - **Rubber**: Domestic production areas are entering the off - season, and overseas floods have affected supply. However, inventory has increased significantly, and prices are expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply has increased, agricultural demand is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea prices are expected to trade sideways under high production and inventory [24][25] - **Methanol**: Supply has recovered, demand from the olefin industry has increased slightly, and traditional demand is weak. Inventory has decreased at ports, and prices are expected to stabilize [25] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening supply pressure, some improvement in demand, and compressed production profits, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is weak. With cost support, it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are strong, and cotton prices are expected to trade sideways [29] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, PTA prices are expected to trade in a low - level range [29] - **Apples**: Ground and warehouse trading is coming to an end, and prices are expected to be bullish in a sideways market [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven, and prices are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, supply pressure remains, and demand growth is limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about long - term rallies [32] - **Eggs**: Supply is relatively abundant, but short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices are expected to trade in a range with limited upside [33] - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices may rebound, but long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to trade narrowly, and domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term. It is recommended for range trading [36] - **Oils**: In the short - term, palm oil production growth has slowed, but export data is poor, and there are many negative factors. Oils are expected to trade in a low - level range. In the long - term, they are expected to trade in a wide range [37][41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Long - term bullish with dips for buying**: Index futures [1][5] - **Range trading**: Coking coal, rebar, copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, PVC, benzene ethylene, rubber, urea, cotton and cotton yarn, PTA, eggs, soybean meal [1][5][10] - **Weak oscillation**: Glass, polyolefins, red dates, short - term oils and fats [1][8][26] - **Side - line observation or short - selling on rallies**: Nickel [1][15] - **Temporary observation**: Treasury bonds, caustic soda, soda ash [1][5][20] - **Bullish oscillation**: Carbonate lithium, apples [1][18] - **Near - term low - level weak adjustment, cautious chasing rallies in the far - term**: Live pigs [1][33] - **Waiting for rallies to hedge on the long - term**: Corn [1][37] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across multiple industries. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy expectations to analyze the market trends of each product. For example, in the macro - financial sector, index futures may oscillate due to factors like inflation, retail sales, and Fed policy expectations; in the energy - chemical sector, products are affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - political factors [5][18][20]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: May oscillate in the short - term due to factors like US inflation, retail sales, and Fed policy expectations. Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Likely to oscillate. Short - term trading depends on news, economic data, and policy expectations, while the long - term needs clear signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Range trading. The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Low valuation and weak drivers may lead to low - level oscillation [7] - **Glass**: Expected to continue weakening. Cold - repair rumors have boosted far - month contracts, but actual production cuts are rare, and inventory issues remain severe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) and market consumption trends affect the price. Suggest short - term range trading [10] - **Aluminum**: Oscillate. Factors such as bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production, and demand influence the market [12] - **Nickel**: Oscillate. Supply may be abundant in the future, recommend side - line observation or short - selling on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Oscillate. Supply is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to overseas supply and downstream demand [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and market expectations of interest rate cuts [17] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bullish oscillation. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to mine production and demand from the energy storage sector [18] Energy - Chemical - **PVC**: Oscillate weakly. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain export growth pose challenges [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate. Valuation is suppressed by alumina production cuts, and attention should be paid to policy expectations [20] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Oscillate. Affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [22] - **Rubber**: Oscillate. Supply and demand factors, such as production season and inventory, lead to range - bound prices [22] - **Urea**: Oscillate. Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by agricultural and industrial needs [24] - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly oscillate. Cost pressure, supply - demand relationships, and inventory trends affect the market [27] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily observe. Supply is excessive, but cost support may limit the downside [29] Cotton - spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, but strong yarn prices may drive a rebound [29] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [30][31] - **Apples**: Bullish oscillation. Market trading is relatively stable [31] - **Red Dates**: Weakly oscillate. Acquisition progress varies by region, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average [32] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Near - term prices are under pressure, and long - term prices are cautiously bullish. Supply pressure persists in the short - term, and capacity reduction is ongoing in the long - term [33] - **Eggs**: Range - bound with limited upside. Supply is gradually improving, and demand is being supported [36] - **Corn**: May rebound. Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [37][38] - **Soybean Meal**: Range - bound. Affected by US soybean prices, supply, and demand [38] - **Oils and Fats**: Weakly adjust in the short - term. Affected by factors such as palm oil production, soybean exports, and biodiesel policies [39][45]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 11 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 继续走弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 区间交易 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 震荡运行 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏弱震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡，关注 4500-4800 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Due to the stronger-than-expected US September non-farm payroll data and hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut is about 50%, and precious metal prices continue to adjust. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end-point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. With the influence of Trump on the Fed's independence emerging and the slowdown of the US employment situation, although Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, the Fed officials have expressed hawkish views, and the October meeting minutes show that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed. Given the weakening trend of US economic data and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that precious metal prices will still be supported in the medium term but remain in an adjustment state in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, causing the price of US gold to fluctuate and adjust. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,063 per ounce, down 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,150, and the lower support level is $3,950 [6]. - **Silver**: The US September non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected, and multiple Fed officials made hawkish statements, leading to a fluctuating adjustment in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.1%, closing at $50.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The precious metal prices continue to adjust due to the strong non-farm payroll data and hawkish Fed statements. There is uncertainty about the December interest rate cut, and the expected end-point of the interest rate cut has been lowered. The US economic data is weakening, and concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence support the medium-term precious metal prices, but they are in short-term adjustment [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Multiple charts are presented, including the US dollar index, euro-to-US dollar and pound-to-US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10-year and 2-year), yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size and its weekly changes, gold-silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [15][17][19][21]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - **US September Non-farm Payrolls**: The seasonally adjusted change in non-farm employment was 1.19 million, higher than the expected 0.5 million and the previous value of 0.22 million. - **US September Unemployment Rate**: It was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7% [24]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said that as monetary policy gradually approaches a level that will not put downward pressure on inflation, the Fed needs to "proceed with caution" in further interest rate cuts. He believes that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month was appropriate considering the rising risks in the job market and the recent "easing" of inflation. - US employment growth accelerated in September, but the labor market remained weak, unable to keep up with the pace of new job seekers. Employers are dealing with the impact of import tariffs and introducing artificial intelligence into some positions. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Non-farm payrolls increased by 1.19 million, far higher than the economists' forecast of 0.5 million, and the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 jobs, highlighting the weakness of the labor market [25]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19,233.59 kg to 1,143,494.71 kg, while the SHFE inventory remained unchanged at 90,426 kg. - **Silver**: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465,546.71 kg to 14,329,462.14 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 57,623 kg to 519,271 kg [13][28]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of October 7, the CFTC speculative fund net long positions for gold were 225,202 contracts, a decrease of 22,879 contracts from the previous week; for silver, they were 43,722 contracts, a decrease of 4,363 contracts from the previous week [13][33]. 3.8 This Week's Focus - On Wednesday, November 26, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 will be released [35].

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-11-24 01 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：上行压力较大，预计区间震荡 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：11月21日塑料主力合约收盘价6770元/吨，环比-1.21%。LDPE均价为9033.33元/吨，环比-0.91%，HDPE均价 为7457元/吨，环比-1.00%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7260.59元/吨，环比-0.44%。LLDPE华南基差收于490.59元/ 吨，环比+11.66%，1-5月差-62元/吨（+17）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6357元/吨，较上周末-117元/吨，环比-1.81%.生意 社聚丙烯现货价报收6406.67元/吨（-80）。PP基差收50元/吨（+37），1-5月差-117元/吨（-16）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率82.71%，较上周-0.71个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量67.03万吨，环比- 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a unified industry - wide investment rating. Instead, it gives specific investment suggestions for different metals: - Copper: Suggests waiting and seeing or trading in a light - position range [3] - Aluminum: Recommends waiting and seeing [3] - Zinc: Advises range trading [3] - Lead: Recommends range trading and being cautious and bearish [3] - Nickel: Suggests cautious short - holding or waiting and seeing [4] - Stainless steel: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Tin: Advises cautious range trading [4] - Industrial silicon: Recommends waiting and seeing [4] - Polysilicon: Suggests low - buying and high - selling [4] - Lithium carbonate: Recommends exiting and waiting and seeing [4] 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment has a significant impact on metal prices. For example, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy and geopolitical conflicts affect market sentiment. At the same time, the fundamentals of supply and demand also play a crucial role in determining metal prices. Some metals are facing supply - side challenges such as production cuts or disruptions, while others are affected by changes in downstream demand. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Market Analysis 3.1.1 Copper - Price trend: The Shanghai copper main contract continues to show a high - level volatile pattern. In the short term, it will remain at 85,000 - 88,000. The long - term demand outlook is optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations [3]. - Fundamentals: Market consumption has improved recently, and social inventories have declined. The focus has shifted to the long - term contract negotiation of mines. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production in the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of 2026, which is expected to ease the anxiety about mine - end supply [3]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - Price trend: The price has fallen from a high level. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at the current position. - Fundamentals: The price of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is stable, while the price of imported bauxite in Guinea has decreased. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has also increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged. Some enterprises have carried out production reduction and technological transformation. The downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased slightly [3]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Price trend: The zinc price has fluctuated weakly in the range of 22,000 - 22,800 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc mines have continued to decline, and there are expectations of production cuts. Terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory is still at a high level [3]. 3.1.4 Lead - Price trend: The Shanghai lead main contract shows a bearish trend and is expected to fluctuate weakly after a rapid decline. The reference range is 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The supply of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the prices of lead concentrate, lead ingots, and waste batteries have all declined. With the completion of the first large - capacity all - solid - state battery production line in China, the market is affected [3]. 3.1.5 Nickel - Price trend: The price has declined widely and is expected to continue to decline. - Fundamentals: The global refined nickel has continued to accumulate inventory. The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has declined, and the pattern of nickel iron surplus continues. The downstream stainless steel is in the off - season, with weak demand and continuous increase in inventory. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly declined, and the demand is weak [4]. 3.1.6 Tin - Price trend: The price shows a high - level volatile pattern and is expected to rise overall. The reference range is 280,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: The domestic refined tin production has increased year - on - year, and the import of tin concentrate has increased month - on - month. The export of refined tin in Indonesia has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve [4]. 3.1.7 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - Price trend: Industrial silicon is at high risk and is recommended to wait and see; polysilicon is recommended for low - buying and high - selling. - Fundamentals: The production of industrial silicon has decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased. The production of organic silicon has increased, and enterprises have reached a price - holding consensus and formulated production - cut measures. The production of the photovoltaic industry chain is expected to decline slightly [4]. 3.1.8 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance. The production in October has increased month - on - month, and the import has also changed. The downstream demand is strong, especially in the energy storage field. However, there are still uncertainties in the mining rights of Yichun mines [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - The report provides a series of macro - economic data, including the US economic data (such as the New York Fed manufacturing index, durable goods orders, unemployment rate, etc.), euro - zone inflation data, and China's loan market quotation rate (LPR). These data reflect the current economic situation of different regions and have an impact on the metal market [12][15][16].