长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-24 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：腌腊旺季考验，期价低位震荡 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 数据来源：Mysteel iFinD 卓创资讯 长江期货饲料养殖中心 u 期现端：截至11月21日，鸡蛋主产区均价报2.85元/斤，较上周五跌0.12元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报2.91元/斤，较上周五跌0.13元/斤；鸡蛋主力2601收 于3184元/500千克，较上周五跌51元/500千克；主力合约基差-604元/500千克，较上周五走弱79元/500千克。周度蛋价窄幅偏弱，市场缺乏节日提振， 终端需求较为平淡，下游渠道采购偏谨慎，消化库存为主，蛋价窄幅偏弱调整，不过蛋价跌至偏低水平会刺激下游补库需求，对蛋价形成支撑，预计 未来一周现货小幅反弹。盘面主力转为01合约，偏弱震荡挤压盘面升水，当前基差处于历史同期偏低水平。 u 供应端：11月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年7月补栏，环同比均下滑，但开产 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] Group 2: Weekly View Supply Situation - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 465 tons week-on-week to 24,315 tons, and October production increased by 10% month-on-month to 105,040 tons [5] - Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re-review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply [5] - In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25 [5] - In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Imports from Australia decreased by 15% month-on-month, those from Zimbabwe increased by 41% to 150,000 tons, and those from Nigeria remained flat at 120,000 tons [5] - In October, carbonate lithium imports were 23,881 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.9%. Imports from Chile were 14,800 tons, accounting for 62% [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week-on-week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand Situation - In October, overall production scheduling increased month-on-month. In September, the production scheduling of large battery cell manufacturers increased by 8% month-on-month [6] - In October, the combined production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%. The combined export was 28.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5%. Sales were 166.0 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 13.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50.8% [6] - The trade-in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax on the policy side are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales in the Chinese market [6] Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 1,430 tons, market inventory increased by 426 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 322 tons [6] Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is still shut down. In October, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 10% month-on-month, imports of lithium concentrate were 652,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%, and the total imports of carbonate lithium were about 24,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand remain in a tight balance. It is expected that subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply [7] - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. It is expected that the production scheduling of cathode materials in October will increase by 4% month-on-month after an 8% increase in September. The risk of mining licenses in Yichun persists. With profit recovery, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center moves up. The process of new contract signing and application for Yichun mining enterprises is still undetermined. Downstream production scheduling exceeds expectations, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end [7] - Downstream enterprises are actively purchasing carbonate lithium, and destocking continues. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [7] Group 3: Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax-included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, factory monthly inventory, average price of lithium concentrate, production of different raw materials for carbonate lithium, production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of carbonate lithium, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, and average price of ternary materials type 8 NCA [9][10][19]

01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 铜周报：降息前景不明，铜价高位整理 2025-11-24 01 主要观点策略 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜区间震荡。截至上周五收至85660元/吨，周跌幅1.87%。美国劳工部公布最近非农就业情况，新增就业岗位显著高于预 期水平。叠加美联储后续利率政策内部意见分歧下，12 月降息概率有所下调，铜价高位承压。基本面铜精矿TC仍处于历史负值低位， 自由港的印尼Grasberg预期将于明年二季度复产，但铜矿紧缺下铜价中枢中长期有支撑。铜价下跌带动下游订单回升，采购情绪回升 铜库存小幅去库，但高铜价对终端需求影响仍较大，铜价或延续高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 25-09-02 25-08-27 25-08-21 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-24 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 山西、河南铝土矿价格暂稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降1美元/干吨至70.5美元/干吨。12月开始进口矿现货供应预 期会增加，矿价预计将承压。氧化铝运行产能周度环比上升30万吨至9610万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加4.3万吨至434.4万 吨。大多数氧化铝企业依然维持高产满产运行，少部分氧化铝企业以检修、环保管控、技改设备并线、生产线工艺切换为主的压减 产仍在继续。电解铝运行产能周度环比持平于4442.4万吨。减复产能方面，为进一步降低电耗，山西朔州能源对部分电解槽进行 停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右；新疆个别铝厂因环保管控有所减产。新投产能方面，近期天山铝业将逐步投产，扎铝将于12 月建成投产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于至62%。中原地区环保影响消退及两大电网订单重新匹 配支撑开工，但整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea market is in a narrow - range shock pattern. The recovery of urea maintenance devices has increased the daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, but the increase in the start - up rate of compound fertilizers and the strengthening of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin provide support. Against the background of high daily output and high inventory, the continuous upward momentum of urea is insufficient, and the reference range for the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The weekly price center of urea has moved slightly upward. On November 21, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1654 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from last week, with a maximum of 1675 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1641 yuan/ton during the period. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The main - contract basis of urea has continuously strengthened, and on November 21, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 24 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 68) - (- 24) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea fluctuated in a narrow range, and on November 21, the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 75) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][4][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of China's urea plants is 85.85%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 20.29 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices in Shanxi, Henan, Yunnan and other places are planned to resume production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market is running stably. As of November 20, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 900 - 960 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as last week [3][14]. Demand - In the north, winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, with more than 50% sown in Shandong, nearly 30% in Henan, nearly 70% in Shanxi, nearly 40% in Jiangsu, nearly 70% in Hubei, more than 40% in Sichuan, and more than 30% in Chongqing. In the south, late rice is in the large - scale harvesting stage, with the harvest basically completed in Hunan and Jiangxi, about 30% in Zhejiang, and more than 50% in Guangxi. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 65.48 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons from last week. Recently, the start - up rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished product destocking has slowed down. The support of other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin has strengthened [3][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 124.6 tons, a decrease of 3.7 tons from last week. Urea port inventory is 27.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 7183, totaling 14.366 tons, unchanged from last week [3][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market: With the acceleration of soybean purchases, prices have fallen from their highs. The US soybean market lacks positive support, and the smooth sowing and growth in South America have put pressure on prices. The domestic supply is expected to improve, but the demand remains strong. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of domestic purchases and the auction of soybean by Sinograin [6]. - The edible oil market: The market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. The export of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the production is increasing. The US biodiesel has negative news, and the export potential of US soybeans is questioned. The market is under pressure, but there are still potential positive factors. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82]. Summary of Each Section Section 1: Soybean Meal 1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of November 21, the spot price in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 - 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report lowered the US soybean price to 53 cents/bushel, with the ending stocks at 290 million bushels. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, and as of November 19, the new soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 24.6%. In November, the domestic soybean arrivals were normal, and domestic oil mills actively purchased ships for December - January, increasing domestic supply [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with an increase of over 7% year - on - year. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased, and the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by over 5% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the national oil mill soybean inventory decreased to 747.71 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly decreased to 99.29 million tons [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was raised to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price was estimated to be around 1000 cents/bushel. Based on current quotes, the domestic soybean meal cost was calculated to be 3185 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook - The US soybean market is expected to be weak and volatile. The domestic M2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic purchases and Sinograin's soybean auction [6]. Section 2: Edible Oil 2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 21, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices all declined. The decline was mainly due to factors such as poor exports and increased production of Malaysian palm oil, negative news about US biodiesel, and doubts about the export potential of US soybeans [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil, and the ending stocks rose to 2.46 million tons. In November, exports were weak, and production increased, so Malaysia may continue to accumulate stocks. In China, the palm oil inventory increased to 650,000 tons as of November 14. The market is still looking forward to the import demand from India and the export reduction in Indonesia in 2026 [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - to - negative impact on US soybeans. The market is concerned about US soybean exports and the implementation of biodiesel policies. In China, the soybean arrivals have decreased since October, and the soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 1.1475 million tons as of November 14. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Due to the lack of breakthroughs in China - Canada relations, the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter is tight. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 450,200 tons as of November 14. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the continuous state reserve sales, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally in December [82]. 2.5 Market Outlook - In the short - term, the domestic edible oil market is at high - level adjustment risk, but the potential positive factors limit the adjustment range. Palm oil is relatively weak, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 卖出看涨 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 多头减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 低位震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹承压 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 上涨受限 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].