1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The走势 rating for casting aluminum alloy is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated last week. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 0.3% week-on-week to 20,280 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 remained flat at 20,300 yuan/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 33.1 yuan/ton to 20,025 yuan/ton, and the profit narrowed to 125.3 yuan/ton [1][12]. - The scrap aluminum market remains tight in supply, with the weekly arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The supply of crushed primary aluminum is particularly tight, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of tax rebates in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places. If the policy spreads, it may lead to aluminum enterprises lowering the purchase price of non - invoiced scrap aluminum, and the invoiced scrap aluminum and imported raw materials will be in high demand [2][15]. - On the supply side of ADC12, the operating rate of secondary aluminum plants has stabilized and rebounded due to the seasonal increase in demand, and the lifting of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, Jiangxi and other places has also contributed to the increase. However, the subsequent operating rate is still restricted by factors such as unclear local tax refund policies, difficult scrap aluminum procurement and high raw material costs. On the demand side, as it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand has shown a slight recovery, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. Attention should be paid to the risk of a lackluster peak season [2][16]. - Considering the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the significant decline in the raw material inventory of some alloy ingot factories, the cost support is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. In terms of arbitrage, as the peak season for automobiles approaches, the direct impact on the demand for ADC12 is higher than that for A00. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and shorting AL2511 [3][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival Declining for Several Consecutive Weeks, Continuously Monitor the Implementation of Tax Rebate Cancellation Policy - Last week, the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 remained flat. The price of scrap aluminum in Guangdong remained unchanged, while the FOB price of crushed primary aluminum from Malaysia increased by 15 US dollars/ton. The cost of ADC12 decreased slightly, and the profit narrowed [1][12][13]. - The scrap aluminum market is in short supply, with the arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The supply of crushed primary aluminum is extremely tight, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of tax rebates in Jiangxi, Anhui and other places [15]. 3.2. Recent Industry News Review - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing a positive signal of transition from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys maintained steady expansion, while secondary alloys were still below the boom - bust line [18]. - In July 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports increased by 18.68% year - on - year. Thailand and Japan were the top two suppliers [18]. - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate the implementation of policies related to investment promotion, requiring the rectification of issues such as illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [18]. - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list [19]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrivals, High Prices - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, with the arrivals of scrap aluminum traders decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum has significantly narrowed. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong in the short term due to the unclear tax rebate policy and resource scarcity [15]. 3.3.2. ADC12: Strong Prices, High Social Inventory - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures oscillated last week, with a decline of 0.3%. The spot selling price of Baotai remained at 20,300 yuan/ton, at a premium to the futures price. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 has been narrowing [16]. - On the supply side, the operating rate of secondary aluminum plants has rebounded, but is still restricted by factors such as unclear tax refund policies, difficult scrap aluminum procurement and high raw material costs. On the demand side, as it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand has shown a slight recovery, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has continued to increase, while the in - plant inventory has decreased [16]. 3.3.3. Downstream: Marginal Weakening of Semi - Steel Tire Production, Be Aware of the Risk of a Lackluster Peak Season - As it enters the traditional peak season in September, downstream demand for ADC12 has shown a slight recovery, but the high - frequency data of automobile production shows that the weekly operating rate of semi -/full - steel tires has weakened, and the automobile inventory warning index has increased. Attention should be paid to the risk of a lackluster peak season [2][16].

Report Date - The report date is September 5, 2025 [1] Core Views - The ADP employment in the US in August was lower than expected, but the market reaction was muted, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate [2][20] - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, and short - term adjustment thinking is recommended [3][23] - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the bond market is cautious, with insufficient upward momentum [4][32] - After the military parade, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the coking coal and coke market will be mainly in a volatile trend in the short term [5][56] - Macro factors strongly support copper prices in the short term, and copper prices are likely to continue to be volatile and relatively strong [6][78] - The fundamentals of US natural gas have marginally improved in the short term, but the medium - term downward trend remains [7][85] Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US officially implemented the US - Japan trade agreement, and Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [14] - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in August was 52, higher than expected [15] - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, slightly lower than expected, indicating a cooling employment market. Gold price fluctuations may increase [16] - Investment advice: In the short term, the multi - empty game near the historical high of gold prices intensifies, and the volatility increases [17] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The New York Fed President predicted that interest rate cuts would be appropriate in the future, and the US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook [18] - The US ADP employment in August was lower than expected, but the market reaction was muted, and the US dollar continued to fluctuate. Short - term investment advice: The US dollar will remain volatile [20][21] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was significantly adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.25%. The market volume decreased, and the over - valuation pressure was released. Short - term investment advice: Reduce long positions in stock index futures or increase the hedging ratio [22][23][24] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Stephen Miran emphasized the independence of the Fed, and Fed Williams said that interest rate cuts would be appropriate in the future. The US ADP employment data in August was lower than expected, but the market risk appetite remained high. Investment advice: The US stock market will be volatile and relatively strong under the expectation of interest rate cuts [25][26][30] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is worried about the strength of the stock market, with insufficient upward momentum. Investment advice: Long positions can be held, but do not chase the high [31][32][33] Commodity News and Comments Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 9.34 million tons of soybeans in August, an increase of 16% year - on - year, and is expected to export 6.75 million tons in September. The weekly export sales report of the US will be released on Friday. Investment advice: The futures price will be mainly volatile, and continue to pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [35][36][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 2.07% month - on - month. The market is waiting for MPOB and USDA data. Investment advice: In the short term, it will continue to be volatile, and the view of going long at low prices in the medium - long term remains unchanged [38] Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate and inventory of starch enterprises both decreased, but the supply - demand situation remained weak. Investment advice: The difference between futures and spot prices is at a low level, and the further weakening space is expected to be small [39] Agricultural Products (Corn) - The deep - processing demand for corn increased slightly this week, and the inventory continued to decline. The price is expected to be volatile before the production - determination survey and may decline after that. Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high prices [40][41][42] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton planting area in India decreased slightly year - on - year. The export orders of Indian cotton products decreased, and the government may purchase a record amount of cotton. The external market is in a weak pattern. Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures will be mainly volatile, and the market is not optimistic during the new cotton listing period [43][45][47] Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cui'erzhuang market decreased. The futures price decreased significantly, and the short - term downward trend may continue. Investment advice: Be cautious about entering the market and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [47][48] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Japan's coal imports in July increased. The coal price continued its seasonal weakness, and the price may decline faster after the military parade, but it is expected to be supported at around 750 yuan [49] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Indonesia launched an anti - dumping investigation into Wuhan Iron and Steel Group's hot - rolled coils. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, and the demand was weak. Investment advice: The steel price will be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the release of demand [50][51][52] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first blasting at the North Pit of the Iron Valley Mine in Australia was successful. The iron ore price is in a volatile market, and it is supported in the short term but may face pressure in the future. Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure on finished products and molten iron in 2 - 3 weeks [53] Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects the sow capacity utilization rate to reach over 90% by the end of the year. The short - term spot price lacks a significant upward driver, and the supply in the second half of the year remains loose. Investment advice: Treat the November contract with an interval thinking, and wait for a good opportunity to go long on the January and May contracts [55] Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coal mines are gradually resuming production after the military parade. The supply is stable in the short term, but the demand side is under pressure. Investment advice: The market will be mainly volatile without policy influence in the short term [56][57] Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a plan for the stable growth of the electronic information manufacturing industry. The production of polysilicon in September may increase, and the downstream inventory is relatively abundant. Investment advice: When the futures price falls below the spot price, the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies increases. The price is expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [58][59][61] Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. Investment advice: The price will be between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and pay attention to interval trading opportunities [62][63] Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory is at a high level seasonally, and the domestic supply may tighten while the demand may improve. Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign anti - arbitrage [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the domestic social inventory increased. The short - term macro environment is positive for zinc prices. Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out [67][68] Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong. Investment advice: The nickel price is likely to be range - bound, and it is more cost - effective to go long at the low end of the range [69][70][71] Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for lithium concentrate. The supply may tighten in September, and the fundamentals support the price. Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the warehouse receipt peaks and the basis strengthens, and also pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity [72][73] Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The International Copper Association became an official observer of the Basel Convention. Freeport McMoRan is promoting expansion projects and calling for US incentives. Macro factors support copper prices in the short term. Investment advice: It is recommended to take a long - biased approach for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage [74][75][79] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of domestic liquefied petroleum gas decreased, and the inventory increased. Investment advice: The market will be mainly volatile in the short term [80][81][82] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon market decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose this year. Investment advice: The CEA price will be volatile and weak in the short term [83][84] Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased by 55 Bcf week - on - week. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but the medium - term downward trend remains. Investment advice: The gas price will be in a volatile adjustment in the short term [85][86][87] Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price decreased, and the load of domestic and overseas PX changed little. Investment advice: The unilateral price will be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive arbitrage opportunity [88][89][90] Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal weaving load did not continue to increase, and the new orders were insufficient. The PTA supply decreased recently, but there is an expectation of new device production in October. Investment advice: It will be in a short - term volatile adjustment [91][92][93] Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply and demand situation is different in different regions. Investment advice: The spot price may stop rising and fall, and the futures price will be volatile and weak [94][95] Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was generally stable. The fundamentals of pulp are not good. Investment advice: The market will be volatile and weak [96][97] Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was stable with a slight decline. The fundamentals are under pressure in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Investment advice: The Indian anti - dumping may have a negative impact, but the downward space is limited [98] Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The capacity utilization rate of styrene downstream industries changed this week. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the Q4 outlook is weak. Investment advice: The short - term inventory pressure may ease marginally, but the Q4 outlook is weak, and pay attention to the policy variables [100] Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly, and the low - price transactions increased. The industry maintains a 20% production reduction target, and the downstream demand is transitioning to the off - season. Investment advice: The absolute price follows the polyester raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [101][102] Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply is relatively loose in the short term. Investment advice: Adopt the idea of shorting at high prices and pay attention to the supply - side disturbances [103][104] Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The market lacks a strong driver, and the cost provides weak support. Investment advice: Be cautious about unilateral operations, and focus on arbitrage operations, such as going long on glass and shorting soda ash when the price difference expands [105] Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk announced a suspension plan during the Chinese Golden Week. The current shipping capacity is under pressure, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile thinking, pay attention to the shorting opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the increase in December is reversed [106][107][108]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 35th week of 2025 (August 25 - August 31), the sales of domestic passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased month - on - month. The retail sales of passenger cars were 5.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%; the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.88 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%; the new energy penetration rate was 55.5%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars were 14.365 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 7.425 billion, a year - on - year increase of 24.3%; the cumulative new energy penetration rate for the year was 51.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of new energy passenger cars slowed down significantly due to the high base of last year, and the slope of the new energy penetration rate has slowed down this year, similar to 2023 [1][12]. - The market pattern of new energy vehicles is constantly changing. BYD's year - on - year sales growth rate has turned negative since July, and its annual sales target has been lowered. New forces such as XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and VOYAH maintained good year - on - year growth rates. New brands like Xiaomi have added new variables to the market, and traditional automakers such as Geely, Changan, and Chery have achieved excellent performance in new energy vehicle sales [2][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Sales and Penetration Rate**: In the 35th week of 2025, domestic passenger car and new energy passenger car sales increased month - on - month. Passenger car retail sales were 5.18 million, up 4.3% year - on - year; new energy passenger car retail sales were 2.88 million, up 13.2% year - on - year; the new energy penetration rate was 55.5%. Since the beginning of the year, cumulative passenger car retail sales were 14.365 billion, up 6.4% year - on - year; cumulative new energy passenger car retail sales were 7.425 billion, up 24.3% year - on - year; the cumulative new energy penetration rate for the year was 51.7% [12]. - **Sales by Power Mode**: Among passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles had retail sales of 2.1 million, 0.21 million, and 2.88 million respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 4.6%, - 7.6%, and 13.1%, accounting for 40.5%, 4.0%, and 55.5% of passenger cars respectively. Among new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles had retail sales of 1.86 million, 0.76 million, and 0.26 million respectively, with year - on - year changes of 26.9%, - 6.2%, and - 4.0%, accounting for 64.7%, 26.4%, and 9.0% of new energy passenger cars respectively [18]. - **Sales by Production Attribute**: Among passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 3.4 million and 1.79 million respectively, with year - on - year changes of 10.7% and - 6.0%, accounting for 65.5% and 34.5% of passenger cars respectively. Among new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands had retail sales of 2.61 million and 0.27 million respectively, with year - on - year changes of 15.2% and - 3.3%, accounting for 90.6% and 9.4% of new energy passenger cars respectively [18]. 3.2 Key New Energy Automaker Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - Weekly sales were 75,000 vehicles. Since July, the year - on - year growth rate has turned negative, and the annual sales target has been lowered from 5.5 million (including 800,000 in overseas markets) to 4.6 million. The cumulative sales from January to August were 2.864 million globally, with 630,000 passenger cars and pickups sold overseas. The overseas target is likely to be achieved [27]. 3.2.2 Geely - Weekly sales were 57,000 vehicles, including 36,000 new energy vehicles (3,000 from ZEEKR). The electrification rate was about 63%. Cumulative sales this year were 1.502 million, up 49.6% year - on - year, and cumulative new energy sales were 883,000, doubling year - on - year. The 2025 sales target has been raised from 2.71 million to 3 million [29]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - Weekly sales were 20,000 vehicles, including 18,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate was as high as 91%. Cumulative sales this year were 536,000, with a growth rate of 21.2%, and new energy sales were 458,000, with a growth rate of 39.7%. Pure - electric vehicles dominated sales [32]. 3.2.4 Changan - Weekly sales were 26,000 vehicles, including 14,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate was about 55%. Cumulative sales this year were 781,000, up 2.1% year - on - year, and new energy sales were 385,000, up 19.3% year - on - year. The sales of its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan were about 4,000, and the sales of Avatr were about 2,000 [37]. 3.2.5 Chery - Weekly sales were 26,000 vehicles, including 10,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate was about 40%. Cumulative sales this year were 901,000, up 25.7% year - on - year, and new energy sales were 283,000, up 68.5% year - on - year. The sales of its new energy brands iCAR and Chery New Energy were both over 1,000 [42]. 3.2.6 Tesla - Weekly sales in China were 12,000 vehicles (about 5,000 for Model 3 and 8,000 for Model Y). Cumulative sales this year were 365,000, with a year - on - year negative growth of - 6.6%. Tesla has launched multiple promotional activities this year. The price of the Model 3 Long Range Edition has increased, reflecting the trend of less price competition. Model 3 and Model Y have entered the new energy vehicle rural promotion catalog for the first time [47]. 3.2.7 Hongmeng Zhixing - Weekly sales were 12,000 vehicles, with WENJIE accounting for about 11,000. The Shangjie H5, a cooperation model with SAIC, is planned to be officially launched in September, targeting the mass market [50]. 3.2.8 New Forces - Among new forces, Leapmotor sold 14,000 vehicles, Xiaomi sold 12,000 vehicles, WENJIE sold 11,000 vehicles, and Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO sold 8,000 vehicles each. XPeng, NIO, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and VOYAH maintained good year - on - year growth rates, and NIO's new model LeDao L90 has driven the sales recovery in recent weeks [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The full implementation of the electricity spot market is a crucial task in China's electricity market reform. The electricity market consists of a medium - long - term market and a spot market. The medium - long - term market locks in forward electricity prices to avoid spot price fluctuations, while the spot market discovers prices through short - term and instantaneous supply - demand changes. The electricity purchase methods of industrial and commercial users can be divided into three categories, and their costs are affected by factors such as priority power generation scale, coal - fired power marginal generation cost, energy supply structure, and market supply - demand relationship. China's electricity futures market has not yet fully met the short - term listing conditions and requires further improvement of market rules and implementation of relevant policies [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market Environment for Electricity Energy Transactions 1.1 Spot Market Environment for Electricity Trading Rules - The electricity energy market consists of a medium - long - term market and a spot market. The medium - long - term market provides revenue expectations for power generation enterprises, and the spot market guides flexible peak - shaving of units. As of August 2025, 7 provincial electricity spot markets have been officially launched, and Anhui and Shaanxi aim to launch by the end of June 2026. China has basically established a trading system that integrates medium - long - term, spot, auxiliary service, and capacity markets [12][13]. - Medium - long - term electricity energy market trading rules: Market participants include power generation enterprises, power users, etc. There are four trading methods, and key elements such as trading units and contract cycles need to be clearly defined. Annual and monthly transactions have their own characteristics, and the decomposition curve of electricity quantity has two determination methods. Power generation can be divided into priority and market - oriented generation, and the corresponding electricity consumption also has priority and market - oriented parts. The actual market - price - forming participants in medium - long - term transactions are mainly non - priority power generation and relevant power - purchasing entities, and exchanges often set price limits [16][18][21]. - Spot electricity energy market trading rules: Spot trading includes day - ahead and real - time trading. The "full - quantity declaration, centralized optimization and clearing" method is adopted. All market participants must declare their electricity consumption or generation and quotes for the next day. The market clearing price of the day - ahead and real - time markets is the marginal node price, which is composed of system electricity price and congestion price and is mainly determined by coal - fired power marginal generation cost [26][29][30]. 1.2 Wholesale Market Electricity Fee Settlement and Off - market Differential Settlement for New Energy Projects - Wholesale market electricity fee settlement: The wholesale market uses a three - part settlement model, including medium - long - term contract electricity fees, day - ahead market deviation electricity fees, and real - time market deviation electricity fees. The settlement cycle is "daily clearing and monthly settlement". Due to high - proportion medium - long - term contracts, spot price fluctuations have less direct impact on market users [33][34][37]. - Off - market differential settlement for new energy projects: After new energy participates in the electricity market, a differential settlement mechanism is established outside the market. For existing projects before June 1, 2025, the mechanism electricity price is determined by provincial authorities, generally not higher than the local coal - fired power benchmark price. For new projects after June 1, 2025, the mechanism electricity price is determined through market competition. The differential settlement is carried out monthly, and the difference between the market trading average price and the mechanism electricity price is included in the local system operation cost [38][39][40]. 2. Decomposition of Industrial and Commercial Users' Electricity Purchase Costs 2.1 Industrial and Commercial Users' Electricity Purchase Methods - Since November 2021, China has abolished the industrial and commercial catalog sales electricity price. Industrial and commercial users can be divided into those directly participating in market transactions and those purchasing electricity through grid enterprises' agency. There are three types of direct - participating users: wholesale, retail, and those paying 1.5 times the agency purchase price. Wholesale users trade directly with power generation enterprises, retail users sign contracts with power - selling companies, and agency - purchase users establish an agency relationship with grid enterprises. The agency - purchase policy is a transitional arrangement [44][45][48]. 2.2 Industrial and Commercial Electricity Purchase Costs Based on the Electricity Spot Market - Industrial and commercial users have two electricity - charging rules: single - part and two - part systems. The single - part system is suitable for small users with stable electricity consumption, and the two - part system is suitable for large industrial users with large load fluctuations. The electricity purchase cost of industrial and commercial users mainly includes electricity fees, capacity (demand) fees, transmission and distribution fees, etc. The electricity fee is the most important variable part, accounting for 60% - 80% of the total cost, and the capacity (demand) fee and transmission and distribution fee account for 20% - 30% and 10% - 20% respectively [51][52][53]. - Wholesale users' electricity purchase cost: It is directly related to the medium - long - term and spot market prices. The annual medium - long - term contract signing situation is the key factor determining their annual electricity cost, but short - term market supply - demand changes also have an impact, which depends on the local electricity market trading plan [57][58][65]. - Agency - purchase users' electricity purchase cost: It is mainly determined by the agency - purchase price, which is composed of the weighted average of priority power generation and market - purchased electricity, plus transmission and distribution fees, etc. The priority power generation source and the market - purchased proportion vary by province. The agency - purchase price is affected by factors such as power source structure, purchase method, and policy requirements. Deviation electricity fees are shared or borne by users in the next month [67][68][71]. - Retail users' electricity purchase cost: It depends on the retail package type, which can be divided into fixed - price packages and floating - price packages. Different regions have different retail package classifications. For example, Guangdong's retail market has a large scale, and its electricity price must be linked to the market price to a certain extent. In Shanxi, the medium - long - term trading is mainly monthly, and the industrial and commercial electricity price may fluctuate greatly within a year [82][83][90]. 2.3 Main Factors Affecting Industrial and Commercial Electricity Purchase Costs - Priority power generation scale: It is an important source of grid - agency - purchased electricity. The scale is affected by factors such as power source structure, residents' and agricultural electricity consumption, and the implementation of policies. After the 136th document, the impact on the overall scale of priority power generation is expected to be small [95][96][97]. - Coal - fired power marginal generation cost: Coal - fired power is the marginal pricing unit. Fuel cost accounts for 60% - 70% of the coal - fired power cost and fluctuates greatly. China has established a medium - long - term coal - electricity contract system to stabilize prices. The price of medium - long - term coal - electricity contracts is determined by a reasonable price range and a "benchmark price + floating price" mechanism, and the spot price has a certain influence on it [100][101][102]. - Energy supply structure: China's power structure is still dominated by coal - fired power. The marginal cost of new energy power generation such as wind and solar is close to zero, and hydropower has the lowest cost. With the increase in low - cost clean energy power generation, the market price center will be under pressure. The mechanism electricity price of new energy projects affects the purchase cost of end - users, and the mechanism electricity price of incremental projects is determined through market competition, which is conducive to reducing the overall market purchase cost [103][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The labor market in the US is showing signs of weakness, with the number of job openings in July lower than expected, which has led to an increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index. - The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and due to the possible phased withdrawal of funds, it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. - The bond market showed a relatively strong performance at the beginning of September, but the upside space is limited, and long - position holders are advised to hold but be cautious about chasing the market higher. - The US soybean harvest is basically certain this year, but concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced due to the stagnant Chinese purchases. - OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which has led to concerns in the market and a significant drop in oil prices. - The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. [1][2][3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials' statements show that the labor market has a downward risk, and the decline in job openings in July has strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold prices rose to a record high and then narrowed their gains. It is recommended to wait for the US non - farm payrolls report in August, as gold price fluctuations will increase. [13][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed Governor Waller supports starting the rate - cut cycle in two weeks. The number of job openings in the US in July was lower than expected, indicating a weakening labor market, which led to a decline in the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will decline in the short term. [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining, and prices are rising in various regions. The decline in job openings has made the Fed's case for a rate cut in September more compelling. Under the expectation of a rate cut, the US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong. [20][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple provinces have raised the minimum wage standard this year. The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting. The A - share market had a significant correction on September 3, and it is recommended to shift from a unilateral long - strategy to a hedging strategy. [24][26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The stock index has been adjusting continuously, and the bond market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold but not chase the market higher after the price increase. [28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Allendale predicts that the US soybean yield per acre in 2025 will be 53.28 bushels, and the US soybean harvest is basically certain this year. However, Chinese purchases of US soybeans have remained stagnant, and concerns about US soybean exports have resurfaced. It is recommended to continue to monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the development of Sino - US relations. [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Market institutions generally expect that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate in August. The main variable lies in domestic consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the final MPOB data. [34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - More than 4,500 plots of land across the country plan to use special bond funds for land acquisition. The preliminary statistics show that the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 3% year - on - year in August. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the near future. [35][36][37] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory and operating rate of starch enterprises have both declined. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the difference between futures and rice prices remains low. It is expected that the further weakening space is limited. [38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory at the northern ports has continued to decline and is lower than that in 2023. However, due to the different inventory distribution structure in the industrial chain, it is not a seller - favorable market. It is recommended to pay attention to new short - selling opportunities on rallies. [39][40] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production area sales data in August are bearish. Affected by Brazil's strong production and supply, ICE raw sugar remains weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips around the expected cost of new sugar in the next season. [44][45] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports was weakly stable on September 3. After the end of the environmental protection impact, there may be pressure on upstream enterprises to sell off their goods, but considering the expected anti - involution policy, the overall coal price is expected to have support around 750 yuan. [46] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The sales of new energy vehicles in August showed a significant month - on - month increase. After the end of the parade, northern steel mills are expected to resume production, and short - term iron ore prices are expected to be strong, but if the demand continues to weaken, the price may decline after a short - term stabilization. [47] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei market has slightly declined. The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal. It is recommended to wait and see and not blindly chase the market higher, and focus on the weather in the producing areas and subsequent on - the - spot research. [48][49] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The average weight of pigs for slaughter continues to decline. The short - term fundamentals may lack a strong driving force, and it is recommended to take a short - term oscillatory view and continue to hold the long - term reverse spread structure. [50][51] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly in the first half of 2025. The polysilicon spot price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The component price is expected to rise, but the terminal demand may decline. It is recommended to consider the cost - performance of betting on subsequent policies when the futures price falls below the spot price. [52][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The market share of granular silicon of GCL Technology reached 24.32% in the first half of the year. The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is slower than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress and look for trading opportunities in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. [56][57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a weak trend, and there are rumors of Russian lead imports in the domestic market. The supply of recycled lead may tighten in September, and the demand may improve marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage. [59] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market shows a short - term strengthening trend, which drives the Shanghai zinc market to be relatively strong. The global visible inventory has been declining, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunity, and maintain the positive spread arbitrage idea before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [60] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chuanneng Power's lithium salt project has successfully produced battery - grade lithium carbonate products. The export of Chilean lithium carbonate decreased by 19.2% month - on - month in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the inventory reduction cycle and the strengthening of the basis, as well as the positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [61][63] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. There are uncertainties in the supply side due to large - scale demonstrations in Jakarta. The price of nickel ore is unexpectedly firm, and the price of nickel iron is expected to be strong in the future. It is recommended to lay out long positions at the lower end of the range. [64][65][66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Some PDH and PP devices have maintenance plans. The price of the Panama Canal's new lock auction has risen. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to OPEC +'s decision on production increase this weekend. [67][68][69] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory in the US increased slightly. OPEC + is considering increasing production again, which may put pressure on oil prices. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [70][71][72] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased slightly. The supply pressure is expected to continue, and the demand is currently weak. Although the agricultural demand is expected to improve marginally in the autumn, the market sentiment is cautious, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after the export game fades. [73][74] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price continued to decline. The domestic PX load changed little, and the overseas PX load increased marginally. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage opportunity. [75][76] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the demand needs further observation. The supply side has more maintenance recently, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory and weak adjustment. [77][78][79] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises increased. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure may slow down marginally, but the weak expectation in Q4 and the potential over - inventory problem will still suppress the valuation of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain. [80][82] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [83][84][85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only a few prices rising slightly. The pulp market is expected to be in a weak oscillatory trend. [86][87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder was stable with a slight decline, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The fundamentals of PVC are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited. [88][89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with partial minor adjustments. Some large factories' devices have changed, and there are still new production capacity plans in the fourth quarter. The downstream demand is gradually moving into the off - season. [90][91] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area was generally weak, with the futures price oscillating. The supply and demand situation is weak and stable, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [92][93] 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The market sentiment was weak, and the demand has not improved substantially. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the long - short side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens. [94][95] 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The EU is considering postponing the implementation of the marine fuel tax for 10 years. The container shipping market still faces significant over - capacity pressure, and the downward trend of freight rates remains unchanged. It is recommended to take an oscillatory view in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the emotional increase in October and the long - buying value after the decline in December. [96][97]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates)**: The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are highly sensitive to supply disruptions and capital flows, with historical volatility ranking high among metals. Their price trends are significantly influenced by the evolution of supply - demand structures and the macro - environment. Demand substitution is the long - term logic for price fluctuations, while price extremes are affected by macro - fluctuations, supply disruptions, and external event shocks [2][132]. - The cost of mining platinum and palladium forms a strong bottom - support for prices in the medium term. In 2024, the total sustaining cost of global platinum mines increased by 11.8% year - on - year to $884 per ounce. At present, the price of platinum is $1350 per troy ounce, reducing the possibility of further production cuts by mining enterprises, but higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [2][134]. - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. The core driver of substitution is a long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. After the spread between platinum and palladium converges from a high level, it will likely form an inversion due to the redistribution of downstream demand [2][134]. - The gold - platinum ratio can effectively isolate the safe - haven attribute of gold and the industrial attribute of platinum, essentially reflecting changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [3][134]. - Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index due to their investment and safe - haven attributes; their prices are positively correlated with copper prices because of overlapping manufacturing demands; and platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices as rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum and palladium prices [4][134]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction - The previous report comprehensively sorted out the platinum and palladium industry chains, global supply - demand situations, and their influencing factors. This report conducts an in - depth review of the historical prices of platinum and palladium, analyzes their key influencing factors, and explores medium - and long - term investment opportunities [14]. 2. Historical Supply - Demand Review of Platinum and Palladium Platinum - Supply: Historically, global platinum supply has shown a trend of high - speed growth followed by high - level shock and decline. South Africa has long dominated global platinum supply, with its share decreasing from 70% in 1990 to 58% in 2024. After 2005, recycled platinum supply gradually increased. From 1990 - 2006, platinum supply expanded rapidly, but then declined due to factors such as decreased mine grades and labor disputes in South Africa. After 2008, global primary platinum supply remained at a low level, while recycled platinum production mainly fluctuated [16]. - Demand: Overall, platinum demand has shown a trend of continuous increase followed by shock. Automobile, jewelry, and investment demands contribute the main marginal elasticity. From 1990 - 2008, global platinum demand continued to rise, mainly driven by jewelry demand before 1999 and automobile exhaust catalysts after 2000. After the 2008 financial crisis, investment demand increased, and after 2015, platinum demand entered a re - balancing stage [17]. Palladium - Supply: Historically, global palladium supply has generally shown a trend of shock and upward movement, with greater volatility than platinum. Primary palladium supply has evolved from near - monopoly by Russia to a bipolar oligopoly pattern of Russia and South Africa. After 2017, recycled palladium supply became an important source. From 1990 - 2000, Russia released a large amount of palladium inventory, and after 2000, supply shifted to mine output. From 2005 - 2019, recycled palladium production increased, and from 2020 - 2025, supply was relatively tight due to sanctions and production cuts [19][20]. - Demand: Overall, palladium demand increased and then decreased from 1990 - 2002 and then showed a long - term upward trend with shock. After 2020, it mainly fluctuated. The growth of palladium demand mainly comes from the automobile field. In the 1990s, palladium demand in the automobile exhaust catalyst field increased explosively, but it declined sharply in 2001. After 2015, the "Dieselgate" event and upgraded emission standards promoted the increase of palladium demand, but then it gradually declined due to the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles [20][21]. 3. Historical Price Review of Platinum and Palladium 1990 - 2001: Monopoly Behavior and Capital Resonance Triggered a Bubble - like Market for Palladium - From the beginning of 1990 to March 1997, platinum and palladium prices maintained a wide - range shock. After 1997, Russia restricted the export of platinum - group metals, and hedge funds hoarded goods, creating a shortage expectation. In 2000, the panic squeeze on TOCOM accelerated the rise of palladium prices, and platinum and palladium prices were significantly inverted. In 2001, Russia resumed palladium exports, and palladium prices plummeted. During this period, platinum prices mainly followed palladium prices, and the substitution effect of palladium occurred in various demand fields [22][25][26]. 2002 - 2008: Macro and Fundamental Resonance Drove Platinum to a Long - Bull Market - Palladium prices were under pressure due to long - term supply - demand surplus. In 2002, palladium prices dropped sharply, and although there was a short - term rebound in 2003, the overall situation remained weak. In contrast, platinum prices showed a long - bull trend. From 2002 - 2008, platinum supply was in short supply in most years, and the average annual price increased from $539 per ounce in 2002 to a historical high of $2192 per ounce in 2008, driven by factors such as the growth of platinum demand in the automobile and jewelry fields and the weakening of the US dollar. In 2008, the financial crisis led to a sharp decline in platinum prices [38][41][42]. 2009 - 2018: Pricing Returned from Macro to Fundamental, and Palladium Substituted Platinum in the Long - Term - Platinum prices generally rose and then fell, while palladium prices showed an upward trend with shock. From 2009 - 2012, palladium prices performed better than platinum prices. After 2013, the platinum - group metal market was affected by macro - policy changes and industry structural changes. The "Dieselgate" event in 2015 was a turning point, which led to a significant decline in platinum demand and an increase in palladium demand. From 2016 - 2018, upgraded global emission standards promoted the bull market of palladium and the weakening of platinum prices [45][50][57]. 2019 - 2025: External Factor Shocks Intensified, and Platinum and Palladium Demand Re - balanced - Palladium prices experienced a complete bull market, reaching a historical high of $3015 per ounce in March 2022 and then significantly回调. Platinum prices were relatively weak, mainly fluctuating in the range of $800 - $1000 per ounce and rebounding in 2025. During this period, global macro - fluctuations intensified, and multiple factors such as emission standard upgrades, geopolitical conflicts, and the transformation of new - energy vehicles affected the market supply - demand pattern of platinum and palladium. In 2025, platinum and palladium showed a pattern of "platinum strong, palladium weak" [62][67][73]. 4. Pricing Logic and Inter - Variety Linkage of Platinum and Palladium Mining Cost Forms Bottom Support, and Capex Has a Weak Correlation with Supply - Platinum - group metal mining is capital - intensive, and new mine development has a long cycle. The Capex of platinum and palladium mining enterprises is related to the current prices of platinum and palladium, but primary platinum and palladium supply has no obvious correlation with Capex due to external events in South Africa and Russia. Rising production costs in 2024 increased the bottom support of prices. Currently, platinum prices are at the median of the cost range, and higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [84][89][92]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio: Long - Term High Premium Drives Demand Substitution - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. Since 1990, there have been three substitution effects between platinum and palladium. The core driver of substitution is long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. Currently, the platinum - palladium ratio has been rising, and there is still room for further increase, but downstream substitution may be more smooth if the ratio rises significantly [98][101][108]. Gold - Platinum Ratio: An Excellent Indicator for Predicting Stock Market Returns - The gold - platinum ratio reflects changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. Since 1990, it has gone through several stages of evolution. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [113][116][117]. Linkage of Platinum and Palladium with Other Indicators - Financial attribute: Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index, and platinum has a higher correlation. - Industrial attribute: Platinum and palladium prices are positively correlated with copper prices due to overlapping manufacturing demands. - Cost structure: Platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices. Rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum prices, and there is also a certain relationship between platinum demand and oil prices [126][127][128].

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Key Hub Monitoring 20250902 [1] - Researcher: Lan Xi from the Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Qualification Numbers: F03086543 (从业资格号), Z0016590 (投资咨询号) [1] Core Viewpoints - Asian ports: Congestion in Chinese ports has improved compared to the previous period, but ship turnover time remains high. There are signs of a continued rebound in congestion at Port Klang, and its persistence should be monitored. [2] - European ports: Issues such as summer holidays, labor shortages, German railway construction, and low Rhine water levels are still intensifying, leading to a continuous increase in pressure on European ports. Recently, congestion at the Port of Rotterdam has been deteriorating, while congestion at the Port of Hamburg has slightly declined from its peak. [2] - North American ports: The operational status of North American ports is good. [2] Data Highlights Asian Ports - **Ship Waiting and Berthing Times**: In Yangshan Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 13.1 hours/25.0 hours, with 23/26 ships at anchor/berthed. In Ningbo Port, it is 15.8 hours/28.0 hours, with 31/38 ships at anchor/berthed. In Qingdao, it is 14.9 hours/73.7 hours. In Singapore Port, it is 4.9 hours/30.2 hours, with 7/47 ships at anchor/berthed. In Port Klang, it is 27.3 hours/27.7 hours, with 14/22 ships at anchor/berthed. [2] - **Ship Turnover Time**: The average turnover time in Yangshan is about 1.9 days, about 1.7 days in Ningbo Port, and about 1.3 days in Yantian Port. The average time in port for ships in Singapore is 1.4 days and 2.2 days in Port Klang. [2] - **In - Port Duration**: The latest in - port duration in Yangshan is 36.3 hours (month - on - month change: - 4.3 hours, year - on - year change: 7.4 hours). In Ningbo, it is 40.1 hours (- 14.8 hours, - 4.6 hours). In Singapore, it is 33.7 hours (- 0.3 hours, 2.0 hours). In Port Klang, it is 52.4 hours (20.6 hours, 19.7 hours). [6] European Ports - **Ship Waiting and Berthing Times**: In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 20.2 hours/43.7 hours, 4.1 hours/39.7 hours, 27.3 hours/46.2 hours, 5.3 hours/32.6 hours respectively. In Valencia, it is 14.6 hours/40.0 hours. [2] - **In - Port Duration**: The average in - port duration in Antwerp is about 2.2 days, 2.8 days in Rotterdam, 2.8 days in Hamburg, and 1.6 days in Bremen. The latest in - port duration in Rotterdam is 66.1 hours (month - on - month change: 8.2 hours, year - on - year change: 0.7 hours), 68.3 hours in Hamburg (- 5.7 hours, - 0.4 hours). [2][6] North American Ports - **Ship Waiting and Berthing Times**: In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/115.3 hours, 0 hours/106.0 hours, 0 hours/72.1 hours respectively. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, it is 1.6 hours/39.3 hours, 20.1 hours/34.1 hours, 10.7 hours/22.3 hours respectively. In Houston Port, it is 9.2 hours/52.7 hours. [2] - **In - Port Duration**: The latest in - port duration in Long Beach is 113.7 hours (month - on - month change: - 5.8 hours, year - on - year change: 12.6 hours), 117.0 hours in Los Angeles (1.5 hours, - 12.1 hours), 41.0 hours in New York (- 8.5 hours, - 15.0 hours), 53.0 hours in Savannah (- 6.0 hours, - 18.5 hours). [2][6] Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - **Large - Container Ship Arrivals**: Data on the arrival of large - container ships at Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port are presented, including the number of ships in different tonnage ranges (1.2 - 1.7w and 1.7w+). [49] - **Alliance Ship Arrivals**: Information on the arrival of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean is provided. [49][52][55] - **Canal and Cape Passage**: Data on the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are shown, including the number of arriving ships and container throughput. [55]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased investment in precious metals, with gold approaching its previous high and silver breaking through $40, reaching its highest level since 2011. The A - share market sentiment remains strong, and trading volume is still high. The US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar maintains a weak trend. The stock index futures market is expected to remain bullish in the short term, and the US stock index is expected to fluctuate upward due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][3][4]. - In the commodity market, the supply and demand of various products show different trends. For example, the production of red dates in Xinjiang is normal, and the production of polycrystalline silicon may increase in September. The price trends of different commodities also vary, with some expected to be volatile, some to decline slightly, and some to have potential upward momentum [5][56]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent but has made many mistakes. Market concerns about its independence have led to a strong rise in precious metals. The expected trend of gold is bullish but with increased volatility. Whether it can break through the previous high remains to be seen [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The cross - regional traffic volume during the summer vacation increased by 7% year - on - year, and the SCO issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development. The A - share market sentiment is strong, and trading volume is high. It is recommended to allocate the stock indices evenly [16][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary's statement implies that the US government's influence on the Federal Reserve is strengthening, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak [23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are hard to ease, but short - term expectations of interest rate cuts support the risk appetite of the US stock market. The index is expected to fluctuate upward [25][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through reverse repurchase operations. There are opportunities to go long on treasury bonds, but the rhythm needs to be grasped [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August, the national soybean crushing volume increased, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose slightly. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US balance sheet and Sino - US relations [29][30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In September, the arrival of imported rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in August increased by 10.22% month - on - month. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions and pay attention to the production in August and the MPOB report [32][33][34]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The net short position of raw sugar increased, and the export of Indian sugar in the 2025/26 season may reach 200,000 tons. The domestic sugar market is under pressure from imported processed sugar, but the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the 1 - month contract on dips [35][36][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has stabilized. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price difference between rice and flour is at a low level. Attention should be paid to the driving factors for widening the price difference [40]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises in August decreased month - on - month but were still higher than the same period last year. The futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year, and the heavy - truck sales increased by 35%. The steel price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with a callback mindset [43][44][47]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - During the summer vacation, the national railway transported 2.43 billion tons of thermal coal. The price of steam coal is expected to decline slightly seasonally and maintain a range of 650 - 700 yuan [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The CMI index in August increased year - on - year. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile, and short - selling should be cautious [49][50]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The growth of red dates in Xinjiang is normal and entering the sugar - increasing period. The futures price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [51][52]. 2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Some coal mines are operating normally, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The demand side is under pressure, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polycrystalline Silicon) - There are many positive news, but the production in September may increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in time and consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and December [56][58][59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel industry in Indonesia is operating normally. The raw material price is firm, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels [60][61][62]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang is less than expected. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [63][64]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The merger of Sayona and Piedmont was completed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities after de - stocking and the strengthening of the basis, as well as positive arbitrage opportunities [65][66]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is weak, and the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to turn from loose to tight. It is recommended to consider long positions at low levels and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [69][70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Traders plan to make large - scale deliveries of copper futures. The market is paying attention to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on a single - side basis and wait and see on an arbitrage basis [71][73][74]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory has increased, and the LME zinc price is strong. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [75][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG in East China is stable, and the 9 - month CP price remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of upward valuation repair of CP [77][78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The supply of Nayara refinery depends entirely on Russia. The oil price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [82][83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has declined, and the basis has weakened. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [85][87][88]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has decreased, mainly due to the reduction of refinery production. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine has increased. The supply of urea is under pressure, and the demand is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the new Indian tender [90][91]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has been slightly adjusted downward, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is under pressure [92][93]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has increased. The short - term inventory pressure may slow down, but the outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy [94][95]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [97]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The glass market is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price difference widens [98]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of the Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia increased by 15.4% in the first half of the year. The spot freight rate is weak, and the supply pressure is high from late September to early October. The 10 - month contract has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to the support at 1,250 [99][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices of photovoltaic glass may show an upward trend due to continuous good shipments and low industry inventory, and the industry has an expectation of turning losses into profits in the future [2][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Due to large downstream purchases and shortages of certain specifications, many enterprises resumed previously blocked kilns last week, increasing industry supply with two kilns restored [7][10] - **Demand**: The domestic photovoltaic glass market shipments were continuously good last week, with large downstream purchases and shortages of certain specifications. There is a shortage of 1297mm wide - format glass, and the industry pays a premium to buy this format [7][21] - **Inventory**: With continuous good shipments, many enterprises were still reducing inventory last week. The overall industry inventory was at a normal level, providing a basis for price increases [7][24] 2. Overview of Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of August 29, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) domestic photovoltaic glass was 11 yuan/square meter, unchanged from the previous week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 18 yuan/square meter, also unchanged from the previous week. In August, the price was boosted by an industry internal meeting [8] 2.2 Supply - side - Due to large downstream purchases and shortages of certain specifications, many enterprises resumed previously blocked kilns last week, increasing market supply with two kilns restored [10] 2.3 Demand - side - The domestic photovoltaic glass market shipments were continuously good last week, with large downstream purchases and shortages of certain specifications. There is a shortage of 1297mm wide - format glass, and the industry pays a premium to buy this format [21] 2.4 Inventory - side - With continuous good shipments, many enterprises were still reducing inventory last week. The overall industry inventory was at a normal level, providing a basis for price increases [24] 2.5 Cost - profit side - Currently, the overall industry price is on an upward trend, and the industry has an expectation of turning losses into profits in the future [27] 2.6 Trade - side - From January to June 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 9.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [34]