1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is currently in a state of oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset, while in the long - term, there is still some downward pressure. Although the suspension of Guinea mines has reduced the ore supply, the current reduction scale will not cause a long - term supply gap, which restricts the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 668 yuan/ton, and the arrival - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Ore supply in some areas of Henan was tight due to mine suspension, while in Shanxi, mines in operation continued and those not in operation remained under rectification. In terms of imports, the military government in Guinea designated the AXIS mining area as a military reserve, causing three mines to shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased significantly, and the mainstream transaction price rose to 74 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. During the period, 457.3 million tons of new ore arrived, including 380.3 million tons from Guinea and 71.6 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 US dollars/ton [2][12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3288.3 yuan/ton, up 267.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term supply shortage caused by phased large - scale production cuts, the spot price continued to rise. In the northern market, 4.7 million tons of alumina were traded, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3164 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Australian FOB price of 374 US dollars/ton was equivalent to about 3318 yuan/ton in RMB, and China's alumina export window remained closed. By the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2944 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 68 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the return of maintenance capacity and the gradual release of new capacity led to a recovery in domestic alumina production capacity. The national alumina production capacity was 11082 million tons, with 8800 million tons in operation, an increase of 115 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.4% [3][13] Demand - There was no change in domestic demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week. There was also no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2940.8 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week [13] Inventory - As of Thursday (May 22), the national alumina inventory was 321 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was polarized. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was stable, while the inventory of some small enterprises and supporting industrial chain groups decreased due to the lack of alumina production capacity. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased due to concentrated maintenance capacity and tight shipping. The port inventory fluctuated little, and the inventory would change after the normal port collection was completed [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164199 tons, a decrease of 40536 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price rose and then fell last week. With the reduction in ore supply caused by the shutdown of Guinea mines, the market was no longer in a large - scale surplus but in a slight surplus or tight balance. It is expected that the bottom of the long - term ore price will gradually rise. However, since the current reduction in ore production will not cause a long - term supply gap, ore does not have the basis for a significant price increase, which limits the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On May 23, 0.3 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Baise, Guangxi, at an ex - factory price of 3300 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina plant and a trader. Also on May 23, 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 3300 yuan/ton, a spot - exchange transaction between traders [17] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - Charts include domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [11][18][25] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Charts cover domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table shows the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand difference from January to May 2025 [11][32][39] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts involve electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts [11][42][45]

Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most global stock markets falling and bond yields rising. The US dollar index has weakened, while non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold and Brent crude oil prices have increased. The threat of tariffs and the US government's debt issues are major concerns, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [1][2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has cooled. Most stock markets have fallen, and bond yields have mostly risen, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce, the VIX index has rebounded to 22.3, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly fallen. Developed - market stocks have generally declined, with the S&P 500 down 2.61%. Emerging - market stocks have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%. Concerns about the US government's debt have increased after Moody's downgraded the US rating. Tariff issues have pressured the stock market, and economic data has been affected by pre - tariff export rushes. The Fed's interest - rate cut intention has decreased, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly risen, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. Eurozone countries' bond yields have shown mixed trends, and emerging - market bond yields have mostly increased. The demand for long - term bonds in Japan and the US has been weak, pushing up yields. The US 30 - year Treasury has exceeded 5%. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield has risen to 1.697%, and the domestic bond market remains in a volatile state [14][16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. The offshore RMB has risen 0.53%, the euro has risen 1.75%, the pound has risen 1.89%, and other non - US currencies have also shown significant increases [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce. Moody's downgrade of the US government rating and tariff threats have boosted gold prices. The gold market has entered an oscillating phase. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel, and the overall commodity market has closed higher [33] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 and a 25% tax on Apple's products produced in India. The implementation of the 50% tariff on the EU is likely, which may cause greater market volatility. The passage of the US tax - cut bill is expected to increase the deficit and exacerbate the US Treasury problem [37][38] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: The US and the UK will have a one - day holiday - Tuesday: The US will release the March housing price index and the May Conference Board consumer confidence index - Wednesday: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest - rate meeting decision - Thursday: The US will release the first - quarter GDP revision and the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Fed will release the May interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: The US will release the April core PCE [39]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅弱势不改，多晶硅即将进入首次交割 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 25 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，部分小厂计划进一步减产，但西南进入平水 期后整体开炉趋势增加，新疆大厂亦在复工复产，供给端压力 继续增加。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅较多厂已处于满 负荷生产状态，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需 采购。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9300-9500 元/吨。后续工业硅现货价格缺乏反弹动力。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 多晶硅现货价格小跌，市场消息混杂，小作文传言诸多低价成 交订单，建议对其为致密料/混包料、新货/老库存、大客户折 前价格/折后价格进行辨析。5 月多晶硅排产约 9.3 万吨，6 月 初步排产 9.1 万吨。但周五盘后市场传言某二三线硅料厂二期 产能有复产计划，根据后续进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The dominant logic of the current market is the downward spiral of salt and ore prices and cost reduction at the resource end. The significant month - on - month increase in lithium element imports in April exacerbated market pessimism. However, the short - term downward space for ore prices is limited, and salt factory maintenance may provide short - term price support. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but short - term decline is restricted, and previous short positions can consider partial profit - taking or contract switching [3][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. 4 月锂元素进口环比大增，盘面再创新低 - Last week (05/19 - 05/23), lithium salt prices continued to be weak. LC2506 and LC2507 closing prices decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices dropped by 2.2%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average prices for coarse - grained and micronized types decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. The electric - industrial price difference slightly narrowed, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate continued to widen. In April, China imported 2.83 million tons of lithium carbonate (month - on - month increase of 56%, year - on - year increase of 18%) and 623,000 tons of spodumene ore (equivalent to 535,000 tons, month - on - month increase of 20%, year - on - year increase of 10%), and the domestic lithium ore inventory at the end of April increased to 3.7 months [2][12][13] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Kodal expects to soon obtain an export license for 27,000 tons of lithium concentrate from its Bougouni project in Mali. In April, China imported 623,000 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% month - on - month increase. Argentina approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Zimbabwean lithium exporters seek to postpone the export tax until 2027. The EU postponed two matters of the Battery Act, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer for exports to Europe [16][17][19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Continue to Decline - The spot quotes of lithium concentrate are continuously dropping [19] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Main Contract is Weakly Running - The main contracts of lithium salt are running weakly [23] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The quotes of downstream intermediates are falling [37] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Rebounded in April - China's new energy vehicle penetration rate rebounded in April [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - The over - valuation risk of micro - and small - cap stocks has not dissipated. The valuation bubble of micro - and small - cap stocks and North - Securities 50 component stocks has fermented, and the high - level stocks still face risks. The transition from the "China narrative" - driven valuation boost to corporate profit repair has a long way to go [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Views and Macro Key Event Overview - **Next - Week View**: The over - valuation risk of micro - and small - cap stocks persists. The valuation bubble of relevant stocks has caught market attention. The problem lies in both trading congestion and the significant valuation inflation caused by continuous capital speculation since last year. High - valuation entry offers low potential returns, and the fragile A - share market structure is also a concern [2][10] - **This - Week Key Events**: Multiple significant events occurred from May 19th to May 23rd, including the President's instruction on the "15th Five - Year Plan" preparation, China's economic data in April, the decline of LPR, the reduction of deposit interest rates by six major banks, the completion of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation, and various policy announcements [11][15][18][19] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From May 19th to May 23rd, global stock markets denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 1.42%. South Africa's stock index led with a 2.36% increase, while the US stock market performed worst with a 2.62% decline [1][26] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: In the same period, among Chinese equity assets, Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of A - shares in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing decreased by 929 billion yuan compared with last week. Only the Shenzhen 50 and micro - cap stock indices slightly rose, while the North - Securities 50 index dropped 3.68% [28] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was consumer staples (+0.65%), and the underperforming one was information technology (-3.06%). In the Chinese market, healthcare (+1.75%) led, and the information technology industry fell (-2.44%) [32] - **Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries**: This week, 9 out of the A - share CITIC primary industries rose (21 last week), and 21 declined (9 last week). The leading industry was the comprehensive sector (+1.93%), and the sector with the largest decline was comprehensive finance (-4.79%) [34] - **Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles**: The large - cap value style was dominant this week [38] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: The report provides the basis data of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [44][48] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - Based Index Valuation**: The report presents the PE, PB, and their eight - year percentile, as well as the changes since the beginning of the year for multiple broad - based indices, such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc [49] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: It shows the PE, PB, and related data of various primary industries, including petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc [50] - **Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 slightly decreased this week [51][53][56] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indices**: The expected earnings growth rates of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in 2025 were adjusted downwards, while those in 2026 were adjusted upwards [57] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose, the 1 - year yield fell, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.17 [68] - **Trading - Type Fund Tracking**: The average daily north - bound trading volume decreased by 18.5 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 2 billion yuan [67] - **Fund Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: The shares of ETFs tracking the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 decreased by 900 million, 200 million, 500 million, and 4.1 billion respectively this week [73][76] 5. Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Supply - Side**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased [78] - **Consumption - Side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [88] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market lacks the power to break the situation and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamentals are favorable for the bond market in the long - term, but there is no basis for significant rises or falls in the short - term. The treasury bond futures will continue to oscillate narrowly. [2] - Strategies include being long - term bullish on the bond market but buying on dips in the short - term; steepening the curve in the long - term with a bumpy process; and the opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From May 19th to May 25th, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. Due to factors such as the balance of funds, economic data, and deposit rate adjustments, the yield curve showed different changes each day. As of May 23rd, the settlement prices of the 09 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased by 0.034, 0.150, 0.225, and 0.380 yuan respectively compared to last weekend. [13] - **Next Week's Outlook**: The news will be relatively calm. The market will focus on the changes in the capital side and market sentiment. The capital side is expected to be generally balanced. The market may bet on events such as the central bank restarting secondary - market treasury bond trading and the weakening of the May manufacturing PMI, but these trades are expected to be short - term. Treasury bond futures will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [2] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 92 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 968.322 billion yuan and a net financing of 548.079 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased, the net financing of local government bonds decreased slightly, and the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly. [21] - **Secondary Market**: Treasury bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of May 23rd, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.69, - 2.26, + 3.67, and + 0.45 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y widened, while the spread of 30Y - 10Y narrowed. [26] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. As of May 23rd, the settlement prices of the 09 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of each variety changed to different extents this week. [34][38] - **Basis and IRR**: The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy has significantly decreased. The basis of each variety has started to rise, and the willingness of long - position participants has declined. In the future, the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy opportunity will gradually disappear, and the basis will return to a relatively normal level. [42] - **Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads**: As of May 23rd, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures decreased compared to last weekend. [45] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - The central bank's open - market full - caliber net investment was 1.2 trillion yuan this week. As of May 23rd, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed by + 0.15, - 5.14, - 8.90, and + 0.70 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was lower than last week. [52][54][56] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield increased slightly. As of May 23rd, the US dollar index fell 1.84% to 99.1231 compared to last weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.51%, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 279.2 basis points. [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices all declined. As of May 23rd, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index decreased compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changing slightly compared to last weekend. [66] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to buy on dips. [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices fell below $3300 due to factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions, the alleviation of panic in the US and Japanese bond markets, and better - than - expected US economic data. Short - term market volatility is high, and there is a risk of correction, but the long - term view is bullish [1][13]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and they are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to directly implement this strategy. It is advisable to go long in the medium - term but choose the right time [2][15]. - The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term as US business confidence improved in May, but caution is still needed as the US economic trend remains unchanged [20]. - US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and the pressure from long - term interest rates [27]. - For various commodities, different trends are expected. For example, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; corn prices are expected to rise; copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term; etc. [4][43][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Japan's core CPI in April rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the national CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year. The US 5 - month manufacturing and service PMI rebounded more than expected. Gold prices fell below $3300 due to multiple factors. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of correction, while the long - term view is bullish [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation and a 154.5 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. In the short - term, treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to go long [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - US business confidence improved in May, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize. The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - As of the end of March, loans to high - tech SMEs have grown at a rate of over 20% for three consecutive years. The North - Star 50 index's decline may signal a return to value for high - dividend and blue - chip assets. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 5 - month service and manufacturing PMI were better than expected. If tariffs decline, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean exports were in line with expectations. Rain may slow down the sowing progress but benefit the sown soybeans. The price of domestic imported soybeans remained stable, and the spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [28][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton yarn prices rose, but demand followed up slowly. China's textile and clothing exports in April increased year - on - year. Cotton commercial inventory decreased rapidly, and there may be a supply shortage in the later stage. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about Zhengzhou cotton futures and pay attention to inventory and trade negotiations [31][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Colombia imposed anti - dumping measures on Chinese welded pipes. Global crude steel production in April decreased year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the decline rate slowed down. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a light - position and wait and use a hedging strategy for spot [36][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate decreased, and inventory changed little. The starch sugar production rate increased. It is expected that the CS07 - C07 spread will remain in a low - level oscillation [40][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Heavy rain warnings were issued in some areas. North port corn inventory decreased significantly. Some hedging positions left the market, and the supply in the spot market is expected to increase. Corn prices are expected to rise [42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. will continue its share - repurchase plan. The pig futures market is mainly trading based on long - term production capacity and short - term de - stocking speed. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru plans to set up a mining fund, and a new copper - gold porphyry system was discovered in Argentina. China's copper industry index decreased slightly. Copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [46][48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of scrap batteries decreased, and the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [51][52]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc spread was at a discount. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, and the medium - term view is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [53][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased in April. The average spot price of polysilicon decreased. It is recommended to focus on positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [56][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project is about to be put into operation. The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In March 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel iron was active. It is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai nickel futures will be between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. Short - term band trading and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwean lithium exporters are seeking to postpone the export tax. The supply of lithium carbonate is in surplus, and the cost support is weakening. The market is expected to remain unstable until the spot and downstream orders improve [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG production increased week - on - week, and port inventory decreased. The domestic LPG price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating in a narrow range. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is likely to be under pressure [69][70]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. European natural gas inventory is rising rapidly. The price of US natural gas is expected to oscillate upwards [71][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily. The supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The impact of alumina price increase on caustic soda is indirect, and it is difficult to drive a significant increase in the caustic soda market [75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly. The pulp market is expected to oscillate [77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The PVC market is expected to oscillate [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production rate increased week - on - week. The urea market is in a weak state. Urea prices are expected to oscillate, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [80][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash decreased slightly. The soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations. In the short - term, plant maintenance may support the price, while in the medium - term, it is advisable to go short on rallies [86]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The glass futures price is weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk adjusted its shipping route. The container freight rate on the European line rebounded. The short - term view is that the market will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [89].

热点报告——动力煤 新能源替代提前到来，煤价跌势加速 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | --- | | 报告日期： | ★连续 2 年熊市后，动力煤价格 25 年以来再跌 20% 2025 年以来，尽管已然经历 2 年熊市，伴随火电需求增速转 负，煤炭跌势再一次打开。截止 5 月中旬，港口 5500K 煤炭报 价累计下跌 150 元/吨至 620 元/吨，累计跌幅近 20%。基本面供 需失衡剧烈。2025 年 1-4 月份统计局数据，煤炭有效供应增速 （国产+进口）累计增长 6%，火电和非电需求累计下滑 2%。 黑 ★量变到质变，新能源对火电结构性替代提前到来 色 金 新能源对传统火电能源替代加速到来，并逐步由量变转为质 变，导致 2025 年以来火电需求持续负增长。需求持续负增长加 速煤炭短期供需过剩级别，煤价跌势提前打开。 属 电力结构数据显示，2023 年、2024 年年末，新能源发电占比分 别为 17%和 19%；2025 年 4 月末，新能源发电量占比已经跳增 至 25%，风电光伏装机量占比达到 43%。叠加 5 月末结束的光 伏抢装潮，市场对此轮夏季火电增速也保持谨慎态度。 ★进口煤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, China's economic data was generally lackluster, with a sharp contrast between high export growth and weak domestic demand. The "fatigue period" of domestic policy efforts may be emerging, and the growth rate in policy - supported areas is also declining. New - quality productivity sectors maintain growth resilience, corresponding to a relatively high risk appetite for the BeiZheng 50 Index and small - cap indexes in the stock market. However, the macro - picture of the pro - cyclical sector's failure to gain momentum, low inflation, and weak consumer confidence restricts the stock index. The corporate profit growth rate in 2025 may only be around 3%. The stock market's rise in the first five months of this year relied more on valuation expansion, but the current high valuation level makes it difficult to support continued expansion. In the long - term, the stock index still has room, but in the short - to - medium term, there is a need to be vigilant about the pressure of valuation correction [2][31] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Data Interpretation in April 2025 - **Overall Economic Situation**: As the first month after the escalation of the tariff war, China's economic indicators weakened year - on - year. Except for industrial growth, all were below market expectations, indicating emerging domestic economic pressure after the rapid recovery in the first quarter. In April, the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month growth rates of industrial growth, social retail, and fixed - asset investment were at historically low seasonal levels. After deducting price factors, the supply side outperformed the demand side in the cumulative data for the first four months [1][9] - **Supply Side**: Both industrial and service sectors showed a slowdown in year - on - year growth, but new - quality productivity became a stable growth source. In the industrial supply, the high - tech industry showed strong resilience to external shocks such as the tariff war, with a relatively high overall growth rate and a small decline. The mining and public utility sectors related to domestic demand declined significantly due to weak demand. In the service supply, new business forms such as information technology services maintained resilience, while traditional industries such as wholesale and retail contracted [11][12] - **Consumption**: The growth of social retail in April fell short of expectations. In terms of categories, there may be a phenomenon of low - price competition in the catering industry. In commodity retail, gold and silver jewelry, cultural and office products, and cosmetics showed high growth, while the growth of cars and communication products in traditional subsidy areas slowed down [3][18] - **Investment**: In May, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined. Among them, the growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure investment decreased from high levels, and the decline in real estate investment widened. In the real estate sector, both investment and sales weakened, and the housing price situation was not optimistic. The continuous decline in housing prices deepened the impact on residents' asset - liability behavior and weakened domestic consumption - promotion policies [23][26] 2. Investment Suggestions - The economic data in April was lackluster, with a contrast between high export growth and weak domestic demand. The "fatigue period" of domestic policy efforts may be emerging. New - quality productivity sectors maintain growth resilience, corresponding to a relatively high risk appetite for the BeiZheng 50 Index and small - cap indexes in the stock market. However, the pro - cyclical sector's failure to gain momentum, low inflation, and weak consumer confidence restrict the stock index. The corporate profit growth rate in 2025 may only be around 3%. The stock market's rise in the first five months of this year relied more on valuation expansion, but the current high valuation level makes it difficult to support continued expansion. In the long - term, the stock index still has room, but in the short - to - medium term, there is a need to be vigilant about the pressure of valuation correction [2][31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The financial market is affected by multiple factors such as US fiscal deficits, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The stock and bond markets in the US show signs of instability, and gold has attracted inflow of bottom - fishing funds. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the prices of some agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, while the prices of some metals and energy chemicals are influenced by factors like production, inventory, and trade policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The EU is expected to share a revised trade proposal with the US, aiming to boost negotiations. The US Treasury auctioned $16 billion of 20 - year Treasury bonds, with poor auction results. - Gold prices are oscillating and showing strength. Tensions in the Middle East, poor 20 - year Treasury bond auction data, and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating have led to inflows of bottom - fishing funds. Gold is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - A measure of the dollar's performance has fallen to a one - month low. Traders are waiting for the G - 7 meeting to see if the Trump administration seeks a weaker dollar. - Trump claims that the tax - cut bill is close to passing, but there is still opposition. Rising US Treasury yields and concerns about deficits have led to a weakening of the dollar index. The dollar is expected to be weak in the short term [11][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's attempt to ban Chinese advanced computing chips globally, stating that it is a unilateral and protectionist act. Shanghai plans to implement a consumer goods trade - in program, and eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing. - The market is differentiated, with more structural and thematic opportunities. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The 20 - year Treasury bond auction was dismal, and the House Speaker Johnson announced an agreement on the state and local tax deduction cap. - Concerns about the sustainability of US government debt are hard to dispel in the short term. Long - term interest rates will suppress US stocks, which are expected to be weak and oscillating [19][21]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 157 billion yuan, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. - Treasury bond futures are oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On May 21, the actual成交 volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 85,606 tons, with a成交 rate of 32.1%. The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 19 - 700,000 tons in US soybean exports. - Argentine precipitation affects soybean harvests, and US soybean planting progress is slow, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. However, the increase is expected to be limited. Domestic soybean meal prices have been slightly adjusted upwards. Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean growing areas' weather and the 25/26 balance sheet adjustment [23][26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - In April 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased year - on - year, while refrigerator and TV production decreased. From May 1 - 18, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. - Steel prices are oscillating, and the market sentiment is cautious. With weak domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand, uncertain manufacturing demand, and potential external demand risks, steel prices are expected to continue oscillating in the near future. It is recommended to hold light positions in the short term [27][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar domestic sales quota in May 2025 is 2.35 million tons, the same as last month. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of May decreased year - on - year. China's syrup and premix imports in April decreased year - on - year. - International sugar trade supply - demand is expected to loosen, and the global sugar supply - demand may turn to surplus in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the weather in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar - pressing data [30][34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weakly stable. Coal mines have stable production, but downstream procurement is negative. The coking coal futures are oscillating downward, and the supply is excessive. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. - Coking coal is expected to be bearish in the short and medium term, and coke is expected to oscillate weakly [35][36]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The overall progress of the Guangxi Beihai green ecological aluminum project has exceeded 90%, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of this year. - The alumina spot price has increased, and the Guinea ore disturbance has led to increased short - term fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [37]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $24.07 per ton. In April, lead concentrate imports increased year - on - year. Recycled lead smelters have cut waste battery purchase prices due to losses. - The lead industry has high finished - product inventories and weak terminal demand. There is a risk of a squeeze in the overseas market. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on potential internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [39][42]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - From January to April, the cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets increased year - on - year. On May 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $29.83 per ton. - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The near - strong and far - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory inflection point may be gradually confirmed. It is recommended to short at high levels on a medium - term basis for unilateral trading and focus on positive arbitrage opportunities [43][45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US plans to impose high tariffs on Southeast Asian solar equipment. There has been an increase in warehouse receipts, and leading enterprises are maintaining price - holding strategies, while second - and third - tier enterprises have cut prices. - The polysilicon market is affected by news, and the supply - demand situation is complex. It is recommended to focus on positive arbitrage opportunities after price corrections [46][48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon new material and additive project with an annual output of 40,000 tons is in the environmental impact assessment public - notice stage. - Industrial silicon prices have been falling. Some small factories plan to cut production, while some silicon factories in Sichuan may resume production. With weak demand, the market is not optimistic. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [49][50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The LME has approved the addition of three warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. China's copper production in April increased slightly month - on - month. Antofagasta has started mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. - The US dollar index may be under pressure, which supports copper prices, but the short - term weakening of the fundamentals may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct band trading [51][54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Argentina has approved a $2.5 billion lithium mine project by Rio Tinto. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in April were 8,066.71 tons. - The long - term logic of oversupply and falling cost support in the lithium carbonate market remains unchanged. The market is expected to be unstable before the improvement of spot and downstream orders. It is recommended to control short - position sizes and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [55][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On May 21, LME nickel inventory decreased by 312 tons compared to the previous day. - LME and SHFE nickel inventories are slightly decreasing. Nickel prices are oscillating. The NPI - to - high - ice - nickel profit has opened, and the supply of pure nickel may increase marginally. It is recommended to focus on short - term band trading and medium - term long - position opportunities on dips [58][59]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - On May 21, the spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was stable. The US C3 inventory has been accumulating, and the Far - East import willingness has been partially suppressed. - The LPG market is weak, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [60][64]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending May 16. - Oil prices are falling. With rising inventory, stable production, and low downstream inventory, there is a high risk of a further decline in oil prices in the absence of effective upward drivers [65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the spot basis has stabilized. - PTA futures are oscillating. With supply - side disturbances and strong demand, the PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has corrected recently due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased compared to last week. The urea price in Shandong has declined slightly. - Urea is oscillating. The export - related expectations have been gradually realized, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [70][71]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable. - With falling raw material costs, high industry production, and limited processing - fee decline space, the bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level following cost changes [72][74]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash market in South China is stable. The soda - ash futures have strengthened slightly, while the spot market is oscillating steadily. - Short - term soda - ash plant maintenance may support the market, but it is recommended to go short at high levels in the medium term [75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On May 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market was mostly stable. - The glass futures have risen slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed much. With weak demand and no positive policies, glass prices are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [76][77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Due to a national strike, Belgian ports are facing disruptions. The rumors of Maersk's lower - than - expected cabin opening in June have impacted the European - route futures. - It is recommended to treat the market with a weakly oscillating mindset, as the price from Shanghai to Rotterdam has not been released, and it is less likely to exceed $2,500 per FEU [78].