1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are difficult to change, and the rush to install photovoltaic systems is receding. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has been implemented, but the demand remains sluggish. For polysilicon, the core issue is the high inventory, and the spot price may face pressure again with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2505 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 365 yuan/ton to 9455 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1815 yuan/ton to 41835 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material remained unchanged at 41700 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamentals Remain Unchanged, Photovoltaic Rush to Install Recedes - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. Xinjiang reduced production by 2 industrial silicon furnaces, with a weekly output of 72400 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. The social inventory of SMM industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.65 million tons. After the production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang, other large factories did not continue to reduce production. The industrial silicon in the southwest region is slowly resuming work, and some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation this month. The powder list price of polysilicon factories this week is between 10400 - 10500 yuan/ton. Organic silicon continued to reduce production, and the price of aluminum alloy decreased due to US tariffs, maintaining only rigid demand for industrial silicon. Exports may decline in the short term due to relevant policies [12] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon dropped significantly this week. Many enterprises maintained reduced production, with an overall operating rate of about 63.3%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points. The weekly output was 41900 tons, a decrease of 3.23%, and the inventory was 53700 tons, an increase of 6.97%. After the price increase, the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, and the procurement intensity weakened. Although monomer factories continued to operate at reduced capacity, there was no shortage of supply, and the factory inventory increased instead of decreasing [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated downward this week. The price of silicon materials remained stable temporarily due to fewer signed orders, but the manufacturers' recent quotations have started to decline. The planned production of polysilicon in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and it is expected to increase to about 1.1 million tons in May. It is estimated that polysilicon can continue to reduce inventory by 10000 tons in May. However, the core problem of polysilicon is still the high inventory, with the industry - wide inventory possibly around 4.5 million tons. From April to May, silicon wafer manufacturers mainly aim to digest their existing inventory, with low procurement enthusiasm. With the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. As of April 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts was only 10 lots [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers started to decline this week. Affected by the earthquake, the price of silicon wafers was raised, but the terminal demand declined earlier than expected, resulting in low acceptance of the new price. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models may gradually fall to 1.25, 1.50, and 1.55 yuan/watt. The planned production of silicon wafers in April was adjusted down to 60 - 62GW, and the silicon wafer sector continued to reduce inventory. As of April 60 (presumably a typo, might be April 6), the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 20.9GW, an increase of 1.4GW. In May, considering that the silicon wafer sector has been reducing inventory for 8 consecutive months and the current inventory has dropped to a half - month level, the planned production of silicon wafers in May is also expected to be above 60GW. After the rush - to - install period, the market demand may weaken rapidly, and the price of silicon wafers may continue to decline [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells remained basically stable this week. The price of M10 and G12 model battery cells remained at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R model battery cells dropped slightly to 0.33 yuan/watt. The decline in component prices led to low acceptance of high - priced battery cells. The planned production of domestic battery cells in April was 61 - 63GW, continuing the inventory reduction trend. As of April 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 2.58GW, an increase of 1.3GW. Looking forward, after the end of the rush - to - install period, the price of battery cells may decline with the weakening of demand from late April [14] - **Components**: The price of components dropped slightly this week. As the rush - to - install tide gradually receded, the price of distributed components started to decline, falling to the level of 0.75 - 0.76 yuan/watt, and high - price transactions shrank rapidly. The price of centralized components was basically stable. On April 9, China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025. It is expected that the project will be re - tendered, but the procurement price and price level may be lower than before. The planned production of components in April was 66 - 68GW. Considering the delivery of the remaining orders of distributed components and the placement of centralized component orders, the planned production of components in May is expected to be 60 - 62GW. After the rush - to - install period, the price of components is expected to continue to decline [15] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang may lead to inventory reduction, but without policy support, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is weak. The upper limit of the disk price depends on the hedging point. The lower limit mainly considers two points: 1) cost and production reduction; 2) selling the new standard 421 as 99 - grade silicon. Considering that the spot price may continue to fall towards the cost line of large factories and the premium of 800 yuan/ton for the new contract, in a worse - case scenario, the disk price may fall to about 9000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the disk price may fluctuate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the disk price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: After the rush - to - install period, with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. However, in April, polysilicon started warehouse receipt registration, and the disk will also trade the contradiction of warehouse receipts. Considering that only five enterprises meet the delivery brand requirements and the production of deliverable products from March to May is limited, silicon material factories will be more cautious about hedging, and a too - low disk price may lead to a shortage of warehouse receipts. Therefore, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to both the opportunity to go long on PS2506 at low prices and the opportunity to go short on PS2511 at high prices. For arbitrage, the long - short position of PS2506 - PS2511 can continue to be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News - China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025 due to factors such as the adjustment of new energy electricity price policies [15][18] - On April 9, the 100000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project of Yunnan Energy Investment Group Yongchang Silicon Industry was put into operation, with an expected annual industrial output value of over 1.5 billion yuan, tax payments of over 120 million yuan, and the creation of more than 300 jobs [18] - The 1.6 million - ton organic silicon project of Qiya Group started construction on April 1, 2025, and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. It is an important plan for Qiya Group to improve the full silicon - based industrial chain [18]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 对等关税暂缓，美元指数走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好骤降，股市多数下降，债券收益率多数上行，美 债收益率升至 4.49%。美元指数跌 2.84%至 100.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.1%，欧元涨 3.53%，英镑涨 1.53%，日元 涨 2.31%，瑞郎涨 5.34%，澳元和新西兰元涨近 4%，韩元和加 元涨超 2%，新兴市场货币涨跌互现。金价大涨 6.6%至 3237 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 37.6，现货商品指数收涨，布油跌 3.1%至 65.8 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 特朗普政府对外大幅加征对等关税后，市场避险情绪骤然上 升，多数国家开始展开与美国的谈判，对等关税也延期 90 天， 但中国和美国互相加征报复性关税并层层加码至 145%，到达了 无法开展正常贸易的水平。特朗普政府最新动态是对芯片等高 端商品进行关税豁免，短期内贸易战继续升级的空间有限，但 特朗普政府朝令夕改的政策不确定性，加大了市场的波动，关 税也将打压经济前景，需求下降、企业利润受损都将施压股 市。美联储 ...

| 走势评级: | | --- | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 04 月 13 日 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a美ry]国关税由强转弱，股指 V 型反转 股 指 期 货 本周（04.07-04.11）以美元计价的全球股市分化。MSCI 全球指 数涨 3.45%，其中发达市场（+4.36%）>前沿市场（-0.2%）>新 兴市场（-3.90%）。南非股指涨 6.76%全球领跑，中国香港股市 跌幅 9.42%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看， A 股>中概股> 港股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 16128 亿元，环比上周（11370 亿元)放量 4758 亿元。A 股未能完全收复跌势，多数指数跌幅在 3%以上，但北证 50 收复跌势，周线录得 0.92%涨幅。本周 A 股 中信一级行业中共 5 个上涨（上周 8 个），25 个下跌（上周 22 个）。领涨行业为农林牧渔（+3.18%），领跌行业为机械（-7.76%）。 利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周增加 269 亿 份， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for treasury bonds are all "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. Before the double - cut expectation is falsified, the market is in a long - position market, but due to limited odds for going long and disturbances from factors like trade negotiations and funds, the market may weaken slightly at times. Next week, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week, and it's feasible to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. After the market weakens, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices [2][17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 7th to April 13th, treasury bond futures rose significantly. Influenced by trade conflicts on Monday, global risk appetite dropped sharply, and treasury bond futures rose significantly. On Tuesday, due to increased exchange - rate depreciation pressure, unchanged tight liquidity, and rising stocks, treasury bond futures corrected. On Wednesday, with the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy and marginal easing of liquidity, treasury bond futures rose, but long - term bonds performed relatively weakly as the stock market fluctuated upward. On Thursday, as the US postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, the market's concern about tariff threats decreased, risk appetite was strong, long - term varieties performed weakly, but short - term varieties performed strongly as liquidity eased marginally, and the yield curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures opened higher due to loose morning liquidity but weakened at noon as the market expected trade - conflict mitigation. Throughout the day, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. As the US has exempted some products from tariffs and economic indicators in March are expected to be good, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week. It's advisable to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. As the necessity of a reserve - requirement ratio cut increases, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices after the market weakens. Strategies include: holding long positions for allocation - type investors; paying attention to the strategy of steepening the curve when it flattens; and considering the cash - and - carry strategy for short - term TS and TF main contracts with relatively high IRR, and the strategy of increasing the TS basis if liquidity eases gradually [2][17][21] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 55 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 690.101 billion yuan and a net financing of - 180.55 billion yuan, down 9.777 billion yuan and 659.777 billion yuan respectively from last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 201.941 billion yuan and a net financing of 163.9 billion yuan, up 1.4203 billion yuan and down 0.2377 billion yuan respectively from last week. 499 negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) were issued, with a total issuance volume of 682.73 billion yuan and a net financing of 125.66 billion yuan, up 410.72 billion yuan and 125.66 billion yuan respectively from last week [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of April 11th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.49%, 1.66%, and 1.86% respectively, down 8.50, 6.68, 6.48, and 4.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The spreads between 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y treasury bonds widened by 1.15, 0.2, and 1.73 basis points to 25.54, 16.18, and 20.72 basis points respectively. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.56%, 1.56%, and 1.70% respectively, down 3.53, 4.50, and 3.35 basis points from the previous weekend [24] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose significantly. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 50,609, 72,966, 93,058, and 145,409 lots respectively, up 8,652, 20,675, 19,549, and 22,489 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 132,087, 194,613, 207,546, and 116,922 lots respectively, up 15,901, 23,643, 11,057, and down 2,582 lots from the previous weekend [33][37] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The cash - and - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running high. After the marginal easing of liquidity at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the cash - and - carry strategy has become prominent. There are stable cash - and - carry opportunities for short - term varieties because although liquidity has eased marginally, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the expectation of loose monetary policy. Once the easing policy is implemented, short - term varieties have a large room for catch - up growth. Since April, the net basis of TS has been compressing [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of April 11th, the inter - delivery spreads between the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.154, - 0.195, - 0.060, and - 0.100 yuan respectively, down 0.086, 0.180, 0.035, and 0.020 yuan from the previous weekend [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 763.4 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, there was a net monetary withdrawal of 289.2 billion yuan. Next week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Tuesday. As of April 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.65%, 1.61%, and 1.62% respectively, down 4.14, 4.47, 0.80, and 7.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged - repurchase this week was 6.71 trillion yuan, 628.5 billion yuan more than last week. The overnight proportion was 86.01%, slightly lower than last week [52][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose significantly. As of April 11th, the US dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.7690 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.48%, up 47 basis points from the previous weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 282.5 basis points. Due to intensifying trade conflicts, the US dollar index weakened. With rising inflation expectations, the Fed not releasing positive signals, and some investors selling US treasury bonds, the yield of US treasury bonds rose rapidly [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices and agricultural product prices both declined this week. As of April 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index were 3,501.54, 6,084.77, and 1,646.77 points respectively, down 226.04, 270.68, and 123.44 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.84, 4.84, and 7.41 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.07, 0.03, and 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [64] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - Allocation - type investors can continue to hold long positions and wait for the implementation of easing policies. There are both long and short trading opportunities next week [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly volatile due to the uncertainty of the trade war, and investors are advised to pay close attention to Sino - US policy changes and adopt a cautious approach in the short term [16]. - Gold prices have reached a new high, driven by the decline in market trust in the US dollar's credit due to the US government's erratic tariff policies [2]. - In the bond market, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [20]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the supply of soybeans in South America is expected to be abundant, which will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal; the production of Malaysian palm oil is recovering, but international demand is still weak [25][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US March unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected. The US government's 3 - month budget deficit decreased by 32% year - on - year. Gold prices rose more than 3% to a new high, and the US dollar index fell 2%. The market is mainly trading based on tariff issues, and short - term market volatility remains high [12][13]. - Investment advice: Gold shows strength, but be aware of increased market volatility [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index in the first quarter reached the highest level since 2020. The Ministry of Commerce organized enterprise symposiums to help foreign - trade enterprises expand domestic sales. The market's upward momentum was slightly weak, and short - term risk - aversion is recommended [15][16]. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - aversion approach in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan on the day. Positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [18][20]. - Investment advice: Currently, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly export sales report of soybeans was lower than expected. CONAB raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 24/25 season. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the large future soybean imports will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal [22][25]. - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans and the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans into China [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 10 increased by 29.29% month - on - month. The ending inventory in March increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The report data is slightly bearish for the market. In the long - term, the price of palm oil still depends on the production and export, as well as the price of international diesel and US soybean oil [26][28]. - Investment advice: Focus on production and export in the long - term, and be aware of the short - term impact of Indian replenishment [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The lowest bid price of Indonesian Q3800 power plants is 458 yuan/ton. The coal price is expected to be stable in April and may be supported in May, but lacks upward elasticity [31]. - Investment advice: The supply and demand are weak in April, and the price is expected to change little [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Global blast furnace steel mills' pig iron production in March increased by 13.0% month - on - month. The demand for steel is seasonally weakening, and the fundamentals of iron ore are still weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [32]. - Investment advice: Maintain a short - selling position and sell on rebounds [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The construction machinery industry may enter a new replacement cycle. The inventory reduction of five major steel products has slowed down. The market sentiment has eased, but the rebound space is limited [33][35]. - Investment advice: Be cautious with light positions in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities in the spot market [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The downstream startup rate of starch has declined. The inventory has only slightly decreased due to poor downstream demand. The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [37][38]. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to remain stable [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The total corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased. The outflow of grain sources in the Northeast has accelerated, and the inventory in North ports has declined for two consecutive weeks. The 07 contract is considered undervalued [39][40]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to weather in North China and inventory reduction in the Northeast [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The average retail price of sugar in Pakistan has exceeded the government - set limit. The production of sugar in India's Maharashtra state has decreased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of April decreased by 63.85% year - on - year. The macro - environment dominates the sugar market, and the price is expected to be volatile [41][44]. - Investment advice: Domestic sugar prices are resistant to decline, but the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 18 cents in the external market [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings. The near - term contract of hogs fell, and the long - term contract rose. Speculators are advised to operate cautiously, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities [46]. - Investment advice: Speculators should be cautious, and the industry can consider hedging [47]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Northwest market is stable. The futures market is affected by the international trade situation and US tariffs, while the spot market is mainly affected by domestic fundamentals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [48]. - Investment advice: The futures and spot markets may deviate, and the short - term trend is volatile [48]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead has slightly decreased. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy can be considered in the medium term [49][50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and consider a long - position strategy in the medium term [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of 12.23 US dollars/ton. The inventory has decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term. A short - selling strategy around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton is recommended [51][52]. - Investment advice: Short - sell around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and consider a long - term positive spread strategy when the time is right [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Panama's government confirmed that First Quantum Minerals withdrew its arbitration application. Global copper smelting activity decreased in March. China's copper demand in the second quarter is strong. The short - term strategy for copper can be bullish, but beware of the risk of repeated expectations [53][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy in the short term but be cautious of repeated expectations [57]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona and Piedmont plan to merge. Liontown started the production of Australia's first underground lithium mine. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price is expected to decline in the long term [58][60]. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking for short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [60]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM and South Korea's ECOPRO signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The price of nickel has rebounded. The short - term macro - sentiment has eased, and investors are advised to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [61][63]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG has increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased slightly while the port inventory has decreased. The market is in a repricing stage, and the volatility is high [65][66]. - Investment advice: Reduce risk exposure and be cautious [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The carbon trading market is inactive, and the price has fallen to 85 yuan/ton. The carbon market in 2025 may be weak, while the CCER market is strong [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. The supply is likely to return, and the demand lacks upward momentum. The Nymex natural gas price is under downward pressure [70]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price has a downward pressure [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [72]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of some imported wood pulp has declined. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [73]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has rebounded, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The short - term market is difficult to predict due to high macro - influence [75]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased, and the market lacks confidence. The price is mainly affected by crude oil in the short term [77]. - Investment advice: The short - term absolute price mainly fluctuates with the crude oil price [79]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [80][81]. - Investment advice: Short - sell on rebounds in the medium term [81]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has slightly decreased. The short - term price is expected to be low, and long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks can be considered [82]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks [83]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotations of bottle chip factories have increased. The price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices in the short term, and the processing fee fluctuates in a low - level range [84][86]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the domestic futures market's soybean oil prices are expected to remain weak initially and then strengthen in the second quarter. The price of US soybean oil may rise due to biofuel policies, which could drive up the domestic palm oil price, and the domestic soybean - palm oil price spread is expected to remain inverted until the second half of Q2 [4]. - The international soybean oil market's raw material supply in Q2 and Q3 mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The shift in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs. The upward trend in US soybean oil's domestic demand will offset the impact of the decline in US soybean exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. - In the domestic market, with the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans starting in April, the domestic soybean supply will be sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The soybean oil supply will remain abundant even after the increase in soybean crushing, and the demand has not been significantly boosted. The soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In Q1, the domestic and international soybean oil markets showed different trends. Domestically, soybean oil was relatively firm compared to palm oil at the beginning but was the weakest among the three major oils later due to the accelerated Brazilian soybean harvest and high expected arrivals in Q2. Internationally, US soybean oil prices were weak initially due to pessimistic biofuel policy expectations and then rebounded due to policy changes [7]. 3.2国际市场 (International Market) 3.2.1大豆产量 (Soybean Production) - As of March 29, Brazil's soybean harvest progress reached 81.4%, better than the same period last year and the five - year average. The 2024/25 production is expected to be 167 million tons, a 13.3% year - on - year increase [11]. - The USDA's March planting intention report shows that US farmers plan to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025/26, less than in 2024. The Q1 2025 soybean inventory in the US is at the highest level in the past three years [16]. 3.2.2大豆压榨 (Soybean Crushing) - Due to the expiration of the BTC biodiesel tax credit subsidy and the non - implementation of the new 45Z subsidy, US biodiesel production declined, and the soybean oil price dropped, leading to a low soybean crushing profit in Q1 [23]. 3.2.3豆油出口 (Soybean Oil Exports) - Due to the long - term inversion of the international soybean - palm oil price spread, the exports of North and South American soybean oil improved significantly. As of March 27, US soybean oil exports reached 660,000 tons this year, compared with only 35,000 tons in the same period last year. Argentina's soybean oil exports have also been at a high level since Q4 last year, mainly exported to India [31]. 3.2.4生柴 (Biodiesel) - After Trump took office, the RINs price dropped, and biodiesel producers faced losses. However, with the policy change, the RINs price rose, and biodiesel production became profitable, stabilizing the soybean oil price [36]. - Due to pessimistic policy expectations and low blending profits, the use of soybean oil in biodiesel decreased, and its proportion was lower than other raw materials for the first time. The production of BD and RD in January 2025 also decreased significantly [40]. - The market expects the EPA to raise the 2026 biodiesel RVO obligation to 55 - 575 million gallons, creating a raw material demand increase of about 8 - 9 million tons. However, US tariff policies will lead to a raw material shortage of about 6 million tons [43]. 3.2.5生物柴油 (Biodiesel) - The 45Z subsidy model mainly targets domestic producers. In extreme cases, about 2 - 3 million tons of imported canola oil and about 2 - 3 million tons of UCO may be replaced. The new policy and tariffs will create a raw material shortage of 9 - 10 million tons. If all are replaced by soybean oil, an additional 50 million tons of soybean crushing is needed, but the US soybean crushing capacity is insufficient [47]. 3.3国内市场 (Domestic Market) 3.3.1近端到港偏低，远月到港充足 (Low Immediate Arrivals, Sufficient Distant - Month Arrivals) - Due to low arrivals in Q1, the domestic soybean inventory has declined and is approaching a turning point. With the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the arrivals from April to May are expected to be earlier and larger, and the supply from Q2 to Q3 is expected to be sufficient [50]. 3.3.2逐步去库，但供应仍宽松 (Gradual De - stocking, but Supply Remains Loose) - The three major domestic oils are in the process of de - stocking. Palm oil inventory is relatively tight, rapeseed oil is relatively loose, and soybean oil inventory is around the historical average. With the arrival of a large number of soybeans and the increase in the crushing rate, soybean oil inventory is expected to start increasing at the end of April, but the process may be slow [53]. 3.3.3对棕榈油替代明显，但消费总量一般 (Obvious Substitution for Palm Oil, but General Consumption Volume) - Soybean oil has significantly substituted palm oil, but due to limited population growth and domestic consumption downgrade, the total vegetable oil consumption has little increase. In Q2, soybean oil consumption is expected to improve, and the substitution for palm oil in the catering sector will be more obvious, with the apparent demand increasing by about 100,000 - 200,000 tons per month compared to last year [57]. 3.4二季度观点汇总 (Summary of Second - Quarter Views) 3.4.1国际市场 (International Market) - Raw material side: In Q2 and Q3, the supply mainly comes from Brazilian soybeans, so the impact of US soybeans on domestic supply will be felt in Q4 and Q1 of 2026. The change in the global soybean trade flow may increase China's soybean import costs [59]. - Demand side: The export demand for US soybean oil will be affected, but the increase in domestic demand due to policy changes will offset the impact of the decline in exports, supporting the international oil price [59]. 3.4.2国内市场 (Domestic Market) - Raw material side: Starting from April, the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans will make the domestic soybean supply sufficient from Q2 to Q3. The supply shortage caused by US soybeans may appear after the supply center shifts from Brazil to the US, which will be more obvious in the 01 contract [59]. - Demand side: The domestic soybean oil inventory is not tight, and the supply will remain abundant after the increase in soybean crushing. The demand has not been significantly boosted, and the soybean - palm oil spot price spread is expected to remain inverted until the arrival of more palm oil reduces its price [59]. 3.4.3策略建议 (Strategy Recommendations) - It is expected that the price spread of the 09 contract of soybean - palm oil will remain inverted in the second quarter and may approach parity in the third quarter. It is recommended to implement strategies to widen the spread of the 09 and 01 contracts of soybean - palm oil and the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. - For single - side trading, pay attention to the support of palm oil prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to short at high prices, and long positions in the 01 contract can be considered at the end of the second quarter.

Report Title - "Surviving the Storm: Hedging in the Tariff Era - Risk Management Q2 Report" [1][2] Report Core View - The Fed's continuous suspension of interest rate cuts and slowdown of balance - sheet reduction, along with concerns about stagflation, have increased uncertainties in the economic outlook. Trump's "2.0" tariff policies have far - reaching impacts on the global trade system, the US economy, and China's economy, and also affect the prices of various commodities through different mechanisms [9][10][11] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3月FOMC会议及经济预测 - The Fed lowered the GDP growth forecast and raised the inflation forecast in the March 2025 FOMC meeting. The expected real GDP growth rate for the US in 2025 was lowered from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the PCE growth rate was raised from 2.5% to 2.8%. The Fed also expressed concerns about stagflation [3][5][9] 后续展望 - The Fed has paused interest rate cuts for two consecutive months, maintaining the interest rate between 4.25% - 4.50%, and plans to cut rates twice by a total of 50BP in 2025. It has slowed down the balance - sheet reduction from $60 billion to $40 billion per month, which is a dovish signal. There are two potential paths for the US economy and monetary policy: if the contraction effect of demand and fiscal spending on inflation is stronger than the inflation - pushing effect of tariffs, the Fed may cut rates in June; otherwise, it may keep rates unchanged in the medium term [9] 特朗普2.0时代对等关税影响 - **Global Trade System**: It leads to the structural disintegration of the multilateral framework, the reconstruction of industrial chains, the formation of stagflation pressure, and the acceleration of the formation of geo - economic alliances [15][16] - **US Economy**: It exacerbates the risk of stagflation and delays the timing of interest rate cuts. In the short term, US exports may decline by 10% - 15% in Q2, and exports may turn negative in H2 [11][15][16] - **China's Economy**: Starting from Q2 2025, it will significantly drag down China's GDP and exports [11] 关税对大宗商品价格影响机制 - **Cost Conduction**: It leads to a direct price reconstruction and is affected by the accessibility of substitutes, geographical distribution, and the maturity of the trade network [24] - **Substitution Effect**: It reshapes the price system by changing the flow path of commodities, and the substitution of upstream raw materials is more difficult than that of downstream finished products [24] - **Demand Expectation**: It affects prices by changing the behavior patterns of market participants, with the stagflation trading logic dominating the market [24] 贵金属市场 - **Gold**: The "tariff risk premium" has been cleared, but there is still structural support. In the short term, pay attention to the technical support at $2900 per ounce, and in the long term, it needs a shift in monetary policy to break through $3150 per ounce [35] - **Silver**: It has been oversold due to the resonance of recession expectations and inventory pressure. The gold - silver ratio has soared to 102.73, breaking the upper limit of the past 10 - year fluctuation range [35] 有色金属市场 - **Copper**: It amplifies the macro - recession expectation, with cost support from supply disturbances and limited scrap copper imports. In the long term, it has demand support from grid investment, new energy, and AI [40] - **Aluminum**: There is a redistribution of industrial chain profits, and the supply - side is rigidly constrained by domestic production capacity ceilings and carbon - emission costs [40] 黑色金属市场 - The decline of the black - metal sector is relatively limited. Domestic "stable - growth" policies support the fundamentals, and the impact on export - oriented commodities is greater. Iron ore is more affected by sentiment than by actual impacts [48] 农产品市场 - The core contradiction has shifted from short - term cost shocks to medium - and long - term supply - chain resilience reconstruction. Brazil has gained the dominant position in global soybean pricing. There are opportunities for inter - period and inter - market arbitrage [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is significantly affected by the US tariff policy, leading to increased market volatility and risk aversion. US fiscal deficits are rising, and the stock and bond markets are experiencing a double - kill. The gold market has not yet stabilized, and the US dollar is in a state of shock. The US stock market remains under pressure, while the bond market still has upward potential. In the commodity market, most products are negatively affected by the tariff war, and prices are under pressure [12][16][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US fiscal deficit continues to increase. In the first half of the 2025 fiscal year, the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $1.3 trillion, with a $245 billion increase compared to the same period last fiscal year. Gold prices have risen but not stabilized, and there is still room for correction in the short term. It is recommended to wait before bottom - fishing [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Canada will impose a 25% tariff on US - made cars. The US insists on imposing tariffs, which has a negative impact on global risk appetite. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US is discussing tariff agreements with other countries. The optimism of US small businesses has declined significantly. The US stock market adjustment is not over, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank supports Central Huijin to increase its holdings of stock market index funds. The upward trend of Treasury bond futures has not ended, and there are many opportunities to buy on dips. It is recommended to hold long positions or wait for opportunities to buy short - term bonds [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's "quasi - stabilization fund" has entered the market. The A - share market has received support, but the future trend depends on the US tariff policy and domestic policies. It is recommended to adopt a risk - avoidance strategy in the short term [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release its monthly supply - demand report on April 10. The international market has changed little. The domestic soybean meal futures price is strong, but with a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot and basis of soybean meal will face pressure. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will run strongly, and attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations [28][29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to adjust the export tax on crude palm oil. The oil market sentiment has stabilized, but the rebound is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the MPOB March report data. If the inventory accumulates as expected, the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [30]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In March, the sales volume of excavators increased by 18.5% year - on - year. Steel prices continue to be weak, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and adopt a strategy of hedging on rebounds [31][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. plans to continue share repurchases. The livestock breeding sector has risen, but there are controversies. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and positive arbitrage strategies for pigs [35][36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US unilateral tariff increase disrupts the textile and clothing supply chain. The US cotton planting progress is behind schedule. The Sino - US trade war has a negative impact on the cotton market. It is not recommended to blindly bottom - fish, and it is advisable to operate with a light position [37][39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses have deepened, and some enterprises have reduced production. The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to remain stable at around the normal processing fee of 380 [40][41]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - High temperature and low rainfall may lead to soil moisture deficiency in some areas. The impact of tariffs on traders' sentiment is short - lived. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in wheat - growing areas [42][43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. The spot market of coking coal has improved, but the futures market still faces pressure. The coke spot may continue to rise in the short term, but the medium - term fundamentals are loose [44][45]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Guinea is transforming from a price taker to a price setter. The price of alumina has fallen below the cash cost line of high - cost enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - JinkoSolar has won a large project. The polysilicon market may be in a state of contradiction between the weakening fundamentals and uncertain warehouse receipts. It is recommended to consider both long - position opportunities in the PS2506 contract and short - position opportunities in the PS2511 contract [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some organic silicon monomer enterprises have reduced production. The supply of industrial silicon has decreased, but demand remains weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the Si2511 - Si2512 contract [51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile's lithium resources are estimated to be 28% more than before. Rio Tinto will restart lithium expansion in Argentina. The lithium market fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [53][55]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The net short - position of the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai nickel has decreased. The nickel market is affected by the trade war and fundamental factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the macro - sentiment eases [56][58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount. The lead market is affected by tariffs, but there are still strong fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider long - position opportunities on dips [60][61]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc market is affected by the macro - environment and export pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [63]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are under pressure due to the tariff war and uncertain OPEC+ policies. There is a significant downward risk in the short term [64][65]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CCER market is expected to have a strong upward trend this year, while the CEA price is under pressure. It is recommended that CEA be in a short - term weak shock [66][67]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India's urea import tender has received many offers. Urea prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to agricultural demand in mid - to late April [68][69]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in East China has stopped for maintenance. The styrene - benzene spread is expected to widen in the short term but narrow in the long term [70][71]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories have lowered their export prices. Bottle chip prices are expected to follow the cost side and remain in a low - level shock range [72][74]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has decreased. The market is affected by the macro - environment, and it is recommended to wait and see [75][76]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has decreased. The pulp market is dominated by the macro - environment, and it is recommended to wait and see [77]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has decreased. The PVC market is affected by the macro - environment, and it is recommended to wait and see [78]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weakly stable. With the increase in supply, it is recommended to maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [79]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei has increased. The price of float glass depends on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on large dips [80][81].

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