1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week, with daily average trading volume reaching 6.11 million lots and daily average open interest reaching 9.69 million lots, up 12% and 14% respectively from the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week, with 34 varieties closing higher. High - gain varieties include silver, tin, and crude oil, while high - loss varieties include caustic soda, urea, and industrial silicon [2][15]. - Most commodity implied volatilities declined this week, with 42 varieties seeing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, while low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore. Different trading strategies are recommended for different volatility levels [2][15]. - The trading volume PCR of some varieties is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment, while the trading volume PCR of others is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Similar situations exist for the open interest PCR, reflecting the accumulation of bullish or bearish sentiment in the market [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week. Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, industrial silicon, and glass. Varieties with significant trading volume growth are rapeseed oil and polysilicon, while those with significant declines are p - xylene and gold. High - open - interest varieties include soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth are tin, synthetic rubber, and nickel [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: 34 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed higher this week. High - gain varieties are silver (+7.69%), tin (+5.31%), and crude oil (+4.06%), while high - loss varieties are caustic soda (-4.93%), urea (-2.99%), and industrial silicon (-2.42%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities declined, with 42 varieties having a decline in implied volatility and 33 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, and low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of silver, copper, and styrene is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating high - level bearish sentiment, while that of styrene, caustic soda, rubber, gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [20]. - **Chemicals**: Key data of chemical varieties such as PTA, caustic soda, glass, and soda ash are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [25][34][42][48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metal varieties such as silver are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [55]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Key data of ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore and manganese silicon are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [61][69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Key data of non - ferrous metal varieties such as copper and alumina are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [77][85]. - **Agricultural Products**: Key data of agricultural product varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and cotton are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [94][102][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market showed an upward trend last week, with different sectors contributing to the gains of various stock indices. The trading volume of each futures variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IC and IM maintained a deep discount state. The report continues to recommend a positive arbitrage direction for cross - period arbitrage and roll - over operations [3][4]. - The performance of commodity factors was mixed last week. The price - volume trend factors declined slightly, the term structure factors rose slightly, and the basis and warehouse receipt factors fell slightly. The report is still optimistic about the performance of commodity CTA this year [80]. - For Treasury bond futures, the basis fluctuated narrowly, and the cross - period spread rebounded slightly. The capital interest rate continued to decline. The report suggests paying attention to the positive arbitrage and cross - period positive arbitrage strategies of Treasury bond futures [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market rose, with electronics and non - bank finance contributing to the rise of the CSI 300 Index, banks and electronics to the SSE 50 Index, electronics and non - ferrous metals to the CSI 500 Index, and electronics and communications to the CSI 1000 Index [3]. - The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IC and IM remained deeply discounted [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis fluctuated, and IC and IM maintained a deep discount. The current basis environment is driven by neutral short - hedging demand. The report recommends a right - side approach for cross - period arbitrage and roll - over, maintaining a long - near and short - far positive arbitrage direction [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In cross - period arbitrage, the net value of each strategy was flat last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum strategies had profits of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [5]. - The signal of the cross - variety arbitrage timing strategy turned to long small - cap and short large - cap. The synthetic strategy had a profit of 0.2% last week. The latest signals suggest a 50% position for long IC and short IF in the IC/IF strategy and a 100% position for long IM and short IC in the IM/IC strategy. The cross - variety arbitrage cross - section strategy had a loss of 0.14% last week [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The performance of the daily timing strategy models was differentiated last week. The single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models had losses of 0.5%, a profit of 0.1%, and a loss of 1.3% respectively. The latest signals from the OLS model are bearish on all indices, while the XGB model is bearish on the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 and bullish on the CSI 1000 [7]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures 3.2.1 Strategy Focus This Week - In terms of basis and cross - period spread, the basis of Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly, and the cross - period spread rebounded slightly. The capital interest rate continued to decline. The report suggests continuing to pay attention to the positive arbitrage and cross - period positive arbitrage strategies [60]. - For the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy fluctuated this week. The strategy signals are mostly bullish, with main bullish factors including basis and high - frequency factors [60]. - For the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signals of the TS - T and T - TL strategies are bearish [60]. - For the credit bond neutral strategy, the current credit bond duration rotation and hedging strategy holds the 3 - 5 - year index with a longer duration in the cash bond and conducts Treasury bond futures hedging [60]. 3.3 Commodity CTA 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - The domestic commodity market was differentiated last week. The decline of the US dollar index and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut promoted the rise of precious metals, crude oil, and metal futures. The black - series commodities rose due to the rebound of coking coal prices and expected policy support. The performance of commodity factors was mixed, with price - volume trend factors slightly declining, term structure factors slightly rising, and basis and warehouse receipt factors slightly falling [80]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - The CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 10.0%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.69, a Calmar ratio of 1.13, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%. The return last week was 0.00%, and the return since this year was 2.93% [81]. - The C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy had an annualized return of 12.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.88, a Calmar ratio of 1.84, and a maximum drawdown of - 6.72%. The return last week was 0.69%, and the return since this year was 2.55% [81]. - Other strategies also had their respective performance indicators as detailed in the report [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a trading rating of "Volatile" for lithium carbonate [1] Core View of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices were volatile and stable. After the significant decline in lithium salt shipments from Chile in May, the inventory accumulation pressure in June has significantly eased, potentially providing short - term support for prices. The FMB ore price rebounded slightly last Friday, and it's necessary to observe whether the ore price can stabilize at the $600 level. Considering that there are no new negative factors in the fundamentals, the short - term downward driving force of the futures market is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Chile's Lithium Salt Shipments Significantly Declined in May, Focus on Whether Ore Prices Can Stabilize - **Price Changes**: Last week, lithium salt prices were volatile and stable. LC2506 and LC2507 closing prices increased by 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate increased by 1.4%. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak, with the average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreasing by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. The electrical - industrial price difference remained flat, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][11] - **Shipment Data**: In May, Chile exported 17,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 31% month - on - month and year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 9,700 tons, a 38% month - on - month and 46% year - on - year decrease. From January to May, Chile exported 108,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Shipments of lithium sulfate to China in May were 9,700 tons (4,900 tons LCE), a 7% month - on - month and 107% year - on - year increase [3][12] - **Market Impact and Strategy**: The inventory accumulation pressure in June has significantly eased, potentially providing short - term support for prices. After the futures market stabilized last week, the FMB ore price rebounded slightly by $2.5 to $615/ton on Friday. It's necessary to observe whether the ore price can stabilize at the $600 level. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3][17] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - **New Energy Vehicle Rural Promotion**: On June 3, five departments launched the 2025 new energy vehicle rural promotion activity to improve the consumption and usage of new energy vehicles in rural areas [19] - **Capacity Expansion Cooperation**: Fulin Jinggong's subsidiary signed a supplementary agreement with CATL to increase production capacity and enhance the competitiveness of its lithium iron phosphate cathode material business [19] - **Decline in Chile's Lithium Carbonate Exports to China**: In May, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China decreased significantly, which will help relieve the domestic supply surplus pressure [20] - **Suspension of Lithium Mining Contracts in Bolivia**: The Bolivian court suspended two lithium mining contracts involving Chinese and Russian enterprises due to environmental rights complaints from indigenous groups [20] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain - **Resource End**: The spot quotation of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropping by $50 to $626/ton, a 7.4% decrease [12] - **Lithium Salt**: The futures market was briefly stable. The closing prices of LC2506 and LC2507 increased, while the price of lithium hydroxide continued to decline [2][11] - **Downstream Intermediates**: The quotations declined. The average prices of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium all decreased to varying degrees [12] - **Terminal**: In April, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with most stocks rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US bond yield reaching 4.5%. The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 16.77, and the spot commodity index closed higher, with Brent crude rising 6.7% [1][5][8] - The Trump administration's tariff policy continues to disrupt the market. The US economic data is mixed, with the May ISM manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs falling short of expectations, showing stagflation risks. The May US non - farm payroll report supports the Fed to continue to wait and see. Short - term monetary policy is more concerned about inflation than the job market, and the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in June [2][10] - The ECB cut interest rates by 25bp to 2%, but the stance is hawkish. The market expects the ECB to pause rate cuts in July [2][10] - The May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Short - term dollar index is expected to oscillate [35][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded. Most stocks rose, and bond yields mostly increased, with the US bond yield reaching 4.5%. The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, the VIX index fell to 16.77, and the spot commodity index closed higher, with Brent crude rising 6.9% to $68.16 per barrel [1][5][8] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the Eurozone stocks mostly closed higher, emerging market stocks were mixed, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.16%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.59% [9][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy and the upcoming Sino - US second - round negotiation affected the market sentiment. The US economic data is mixed, and the non - farm payroll report supports the Fed to continue to wait and see [10] - The domestic stock market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US bond yield reaching 4.5%, and most Eurozone countries' bond yields rising. Emerging market bond yields mostly declined [13][17][19] - The May US non - farm payroll report increased market concerns about inflation. The ECB cut rates but the stance is hawkish, and the short - term risk of European and American bond yields is upward [18] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly decreased to 1.69%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted and widened to 281bp. The domestic bond market is oscillating [20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.14% to 99.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.23%, the euro rose 0.43%, the pound rose 0.51%, the yen fell 0.58%, and other currencies showed different trends [24][26][27] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,310 per ounce, and the price is oscillating. The short - term gold price lacks upward momentum and is still in an oscillating range [30] - Brent crude rose 6.7% to $68.16 per barrel. Market risk appetite rebounded, industrial products rebounded, and the commodity spot index closed higher [30] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The May non - farm payroll data was better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. The economic fundamentals are deteriorating, and the dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short term [31][35][36] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data; US May New York Fed inflation expectations [37] - Tuesday: US May NFIB small business confidence index; China's May financial data [37] - Wednesday: US May CPI [37] - Thursday: US May PPI, initial jobless claims; 10 - year US Treasury bond auction [37] - Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectations [37]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 估值低位易受扰动，基本面仍待改善 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 8 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 6 月四川进入丰水期，部分硅厂陆续复产。云南 7 月进入丰水 期，由于电价没有明确给予优惠，因此大部分硅厂仍处于观望 状态。需求端仍无明显起色。盘面快速下跌后，硅厂惜售，期 现手中的货源出货情况较好，但硅厂惜售也导致工厂库存不断 累积，不排除库存压力下部分硅厂仍将降价出货。目前盘面价 格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，后续关注供给的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 节后现货成交较少，采购方压价情绪强烈，而一线硅料厂仍在 挺价，导致双方处于僵持状态，二三线料厂前期价格有所下 移。6 月硅料排产上调至 9.6 万吨，单月仍有望去库 1 万吨左 右。前期下游备货使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为 前期原材料库存较高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料 囤货。下 ...

周度报告——股指期货 中美领导通话提振股市风险偏好 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：aAry股] 交易者持续押注 TACO 交易 股 指 期 货 本周（06/02-06/06）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 1.42%，其中新兴市场市场（+2.21%）>前沿市场（+1.99%）> 发达市场（+1.33%）。韩国股指涨 6.49%领跑全球，日本股市跌 1.82%全球表现最差。中国权益总体表现较好，分市场看，A 股> 港股>中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 12001 亿元，环比上 周（10941 亿元)放量 1024 亿元。A 股大中小盘宽基指数全线收 涨，其中微盘股指数涨 3.78%表现最佳，而上证 50 指数涨幅仅 0.38%。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 23 个上涨（上周 20 个）， 7 个下跌（上周 10 个）。领涨行业为通信（+5.06%），跌幅最 大的行业为家电（-1.75%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下 行，1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指 数的 ETF 份额本周减少 5 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 4 亿份。跟 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for government bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Although the factors driving the bond market's strength are mainly at the expected level and the market may fluctuate, the long - term upward direction is relatively certain. The bond bull market is in the accumulation period, and a bullish approach is recommended. [16][17] - There are two new features in the bond market this week: the impact of tariff expectations on the bond market has weakened, and the market's expectation of liquidity has started to turn positive. [16] - The factors supporting the bond market's strength are mainly concentrated in expectations, which may be falsified within the month but have a high probability of being realized in the next few months. In the long run, the liquidity environment has a basis for further loosening, and incremental monetary policies are expected to be implemented in Q3. [17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Viewpoint 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 2nd to June 8th, government bond futures turned from weak to strong. Influenced by factors such as Sino - US leaders' potential phone calls, expectations of central bank operations, and Sino - US trade negotiations, the bond market fluctuated. By June 6th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.448, 106.125, 108.900, and 119.720 yuan respectively, up 0.050, 0.120, 0.185, and 0.310 yuan from last weekend. [2][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - Although the driving factors for the bond market's strength are mainly at the expected level and the market may fluctuate, the long - term upward direction is clear. The bond bull market is in the accumulation period, and a bullish approach is recommended. [16] - There are two new features in the bond market this week: the impact of tariff expectations on the bond market has weakened, and the market's expectation of liquidity has started to turn positive. [16] - The market's expectation of liquidity turning positive is due to factors such as the stabilization of certificate of deposit (CD) rates, the central bank's 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation at the beginning of the month, and large banks' continuous purchase of short - term bonds. [16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 48 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 614.275 billion yuan and a net financing of 275.021 billion yuan, up 220.063 billion yuan and 7.639 billion yuan respectively from last week. [22] - 26 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 109.595 billion yuan and a net financing of 50.501 billion yuan, down 118.617 billion yuan and 86.881 billion yuan respectively from last week. [22] - 401 CDs were issued, with a total issuance volume of 586.190 billion yuan and a net financing of - 80.360 billion yuan, down 83.310 billion yuan and 97.130 billion yuan respectively from last week. [22] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields declined. By June 6th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.42%, 1.52%, 1.66%, and 1.88% respectively, down 4.23, 3.31, 1.30, and 1.40 basis points from last weekend. [27] - The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads widened by 3.11bp and 2.01bp respectively, while the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed by 0.1bp. [27] 3.3 Government Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures turned from weak to strong. By June 6th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.448, 106.125, 108.900, and 119.720 yuan respectively, up 0.050, 0.120, 0.185, and 0.310 yuan from last weekend. [33] - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures this week were 39,510, 58,282, 59,360, and 71,211 lots respectively, with changes of + 2,766, - 2,336, - 13,870, and - 10,576 lots from last weekend. [37] - The open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures this week were 121,116, 166,717, 196,017, and 115,097 lots respectively, with changes of - 816, + 674, - 11,525, and - 9,017 lots from last weekend. [37] 3.3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - There were few arbitrage opportunities this week. At the beginning of the month, the liquidity further loosened, the futures basis generally increased slightly, and the IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of each main contract generally dropped to around 1.8%. With the current CD rate close to 1.7%, the opportunities for arbitrage strategies were relatively limited. [41] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Product Spreads - By June 6th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were - 0.132, - 0.290, - 0.190, and - 0.730 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.038, + 0.000, + 0.030, and - 0.060 yuan from last weekend. [44] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1,602.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan. [51] - On June 6, 2025, the central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 91 days. [51] - As of June 6th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.55%, 1.53%, 1.41%, and 1.50% respectively, down 14.58, 13.22, 6.00, and 11.70 basis points from last weekend. [54] - This week, the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.5 trillion yuan, 1 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 87.48%, higher than last week's 83.88%. [56] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds increased. As of May 30th, the US dollar index fell 0.24% to 99.2031 from last weekend, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 10 basis points to 4.51%. The spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 284.7 basis points. [61] - This week, the expectation of trade conflicts fluctuated. Different assets had different understandings and trading behaviors regarding trade conflicts. Stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange generally performed strongly. [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of June 6th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,431.20, 6,071.06, and 1,583.28 points respectively, up 48.17, 47.35, and 24.95 points from last weekend. [64] - This week, agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of June 6th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.46, 4.35, and 7.79 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.20, + 0.02, and - 0.05 yuan/kg from last weekend. [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Adopt a bullish approach. [21][65] - Moderately pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities of government bond futures. [21] - Moderately pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve. [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the sugar market is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market remains in a bearish cycle. From June to August, the external market is expected to remain weak due to large - scale production and supply during the peak crushing season in Brazil and optimistic production prospects in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries. However, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Purpose - To understand the procurement and production status of coastal sugar refineries, terminal consumption, the impact of substitutes, and the logistics and distribution status in sales areas, the analyst participated in the "2025 Fujian Regional Sugar Research Activity" from May 26th to 30th, aiming to answer questions such as the procurement of imported sugar by coastal refineries, the arrival and production rhythm, the market's view on the inverted spot price at ports, the impact of strict import controls on syrup and premixed powder, the impact of the macro - economic environment on terminal sugar consumption, the impact of substitutes on sugar consumption, and the industry's judgment on the future sugar market [10] 2. Research Summary - **Import procurement and production of refineries**: A central - state - owned company in Zhangzhou started production in March, and two other companies plan to start in June and mid - July respectively. It is estimated that a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in June, with a more concentrated arrival in July - August. The import cost of raw sugar is about 6,000 yuan per ton or higher. The issuance of import licenses has decreased year - on - year, but the utilization rate is high, and all licenses are expected to be used up [12][13] - **Fujian spot market**: The price difference between the Fujian port and the origin cannot cover the freight, showing an inverted state that has persisted for a long time. The current price of Guangxi sugar in Fujian is close to 6,300 yuan per ton, and the price of refined sugar ranges from 6,200 - 6,900 yuan per ton [14] - **Imported syrup and premixed powder**: Import controls on syrup and premixed powder are very strict this year. Although it may not completely eliminate imports, the overall volume is expected to be controllable [15] - **Liquid sugar project**: The production and demand of liquid sugar in China have increased in the past two years, but its production is restricted by raw material import quotas and licenses, and its application and promotion are limited by various factors such as equipment adaptation, short shelf - life, and specific logistics requirements [16] - **Domestic consumption situation**: The overall scale of sugar - containing foods is still growing, but due to the impact of substitutes, the domestic sugar consumption is difficult to increase. The consumption of candies is not ideal, while the scale of baked goods is growing, and the beverage industry shows a polarized situation [17][18] - **Consumption seasonality**: The summer is the peak season for cold drink consumption, followed by the Mid - Autumn Festival mooncake consumption season, and from August - September to the Spring Festival, the demand for snacks will pick up. The peak season sales of candies are more than twice that of the off - season [19] - **Pre - sale of new beet sugar**: The pre - sale of new beet sugar in the north started in April, and the pre - sale progress is fast due to the restricted import of syrup and premixed powder [20] - **Production outlook in Guangxi**: The sugarcane planting area in Guangxi is expected to increase by 3%. Although the current plant height is shorter than in previous years, there is hope for an increase in production if the weather is favorable. The start - up time of sugar mills in Guangxi this year is not expected to be delayed [21] - **Operating difficulties of sugar traders**: Sugar mills and refineries are profitable, and terminal food enterprises are in a relatively good situation, while sugar traders, especially small and medium - sized ones, are facing great pressure and are at risk of being squeezed out of the market [22][23] - **Market outlook**: Most research institutions expect the domestic white sugar spot price to decline in the future. For futures, the upward movement is restricted by the expected increase in refined sugar supply, and the downward movement is restricted by purchase prices and high basis. The future operation range of Zhengzhou sugar is estimated to be between 5,400 - 6,100 yuan per ton [24] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **International market**: The international sugar market is in a bearish cycle. Brazil's sugar production is expected to be high, and the production prospects of Asian major producing countries are also optimistic. However, due to factors such as low - level buying demand, uncertain Brazilian production, and a narrow sugar - alcohol price difference, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound [25][26] - **Domestic market**: As the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The weak external market will also affect the domestic pricing expectation of refined sugar. However, the high - basis state will restrict the downward rhythm of futures prices. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, COFCO's pricing, and the performance of the external market [27]

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