Daily Spotlight 9 December 2025 Michael MENG (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 25,765 | (1.2) | 28.4 | | HSCEI | 9,084 | (1.2) | 24.6 | | HSCCI | 4,218 | (1.0) | 11.6 | | MSCI HK | 13,724 | (0.4) | 29.9 | | MSCI CHINA | 85 | (0.7) | 30.7 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 15,370 | 0.9 | 13.7 | | CSI 300 | 4,622 | 0.8 | 17.5 | | TWSE | 28,304 | 1.2 | 22.9 | | SENSEX | 85,712 | 0.5 | 9.7 | | NIKKEI 225 | 50,582 | 0.2 | 26.8 | | KOS ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the social service sector, highlighting the recovery of service consumption as a new engine for expanding domestic demand, supported by continuous policy benefits [2][3][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the holiday system to stimulate travel demand, with the upcoming long Spring Festival holiday expected to enhance travel willingness and extend travel distances [37][38] Group 2 - In the tourism sector, domestic travel continues to grow, with 888 million domestic trips taken during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year increase, although per capita spending remains under pressure [23][27] - The cross-border travel market is heating up due to visa-free policies and improved flight capacity, with 1.78 billion inbound and outbound travelers recorded in Q3 2025, a 12.9% year-on-year increase [27][29] - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear long-term growth logic and project reserves, such as Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., while also highlighting the potential of travel agencies like Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism [40] Group 3 - The hotel industry is currently under pressure, with demand yet to be fully released, and companies are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to sustain profit growth [5][14] - The restaurant sector is experiencing a slowdown in market growth, with competition becoming more rational, leading to a stabilization in average spending per customer [5][17] - The duty-free industry shows signs of marginal recovery, with sales in Hainan's offshore duty-free market turning positive year-on-year, benefiting from the upcoming closure of Hainan Island and the advantages of duty-free licenses [5][19] Group 4 - The human resources service industry continues to grow, driven by flexible employment and outsourcing, although overall recruitment confidence remains low [5][23] - The exhibition industry is expected to benefit from a warming business environment, while international exhibitions need to be monitored due to geopolitical changes [5][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of enhancing quality and efficiency in the context of China's economic policies for 2026, as discussed in the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8, 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights that the meeting acknowledged the achievements of the past five years and confirmed that the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan will be successfully met, indicating a stable economic outlook [2] - The policy direction for the upcoming period is characterized by a focus on "better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade struggles," reflecting an increased awareness of external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The macro policy tone continues to prioritize stability while shifting from "promoting stability through progress" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a more balanced approach to economic management [2] - The report outlines that the emphasis will be on leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance their integrated effects, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [2] - The meeting reiterated the commitment to an "active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy," maintaining a focus on stability and quality in economic growth [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand remains the primary task, with a clear directive to "build a strong domestic market," which is expected to lead to policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] - The report notes that there will be a dual focus on both expanding demand and optimizing supply, suggesting a coordinated approach to economic policy in the coming year [2] - The urgency for the development of the technology sector is highlighted, with a call to "accelerate the cultivation of new driving forces," indicating a shift towards fostering competitive emerging industries [2] Group 4 - The report suggests that the absence of explicit mentions regarding the capital and real estate markets does not imply a significant policy shift for the A-share market, as existing policies will continue to support market stability [2] - It is anticipated that the market will transition from being primarily driven by policy and capital to being driven by fundamental earnings growth, indicating a maturation of market dynamics [2] - The current phase of the A-share market is described as a "bull market continuation," with expectations for long-term capital inflows and a recovery in price levels, domestic demand, and innovation-driven profit growth [2]

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全面布局'十五五' 2025 年 12 月政治局会议学习体会 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 相关研究报告 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20251207 《策略周报》20251207 《债市测试'平衡边界'》20251207 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 政治局会议表示，2025 年'经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现'，以及 ''十四五'即将圆满收官'。我们认为 2025 年实际 GDP 增速大概率 能够完成 5%的年初设定目标。 2026 年，'更加积极有为的宏观政策'将延续。 从工作思路和政策措施看： 一是'增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性'，与 2024 年 12 月政治局会议措 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the initiation of the "Spring Surge" market trend, emphasizing that technology, particularly AI computing hardware, is leading the charge [2][4] - The report indicates that regulatory changes are allowing for a moderate opening of capital space and leverage limits in the securities industry, which is expected to catalyze the "Spring Surge" [4] - The demand for AI computing hardware, especially optical modules, is projected to drive market growth, with significant price increases anticipated for optical chips by 2026 due to supply shortages [5][9] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on differentiated supervision, aiming to support high-quality institutions by easing certain restrictions, which is expected to enhance capital efficiency [4] - Recent adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies' holdings in specific indices are expected to encourage new capital inflows into the market [4] Market Performance - On December 8, 2025, the communication and electronics sectors led the market with gains of 4.67% and 2.51%, respectively, while the optical module index surged by 9.28% [4] - The report notes that the performance of growth-oriented sectors is typically favored during the "Spring Surge" [4] AI Hardware and Optical Modules - Google's recent upgrade of its AI model, Gemini 3, is expected to boost market expectations, particularly for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which are anticipated to see increased production by 2026-2027 [5][10] - The optical communication chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2030, with total sales expected to rise from approximately $3.5 billion in 2024 to over $11 billion by 2030 [9] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the TPU supply chain, particularly companies involved in optical modules, printed circuit boards (PCBs), optical circuit switches (OCS), and fiber optic suppliers, as these sectors are expected to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand [10] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, with some companies experiencing gains of over 300% year-to-date [11]

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,085, up 0.6% for the day and 30.0% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) increased by 1.0% to 9,198, with a YTD gain of 26.2% [2] - The MSCI China index rose by 0.8% to 85, achieving a YTD increase of 31.6% [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil is priced at $64 per barrel, reflecting a 0.8% daily increase but a 10.6% decline YTD [3] - Gold prices are at $4,198 per ounce, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% but a significant YTD increase of 59.9% [3] - Copper prices rose by 1.5% to $11,621 per ton, with a YTD increase of 32.5% [3] Macro and Earnings Releases - China's exports decreased by 1.1% YoY, while imports increased by 1.0% YoY [4] - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by 2.7% [4] - New home sales in the US were reported at 800,000, exceeding the consensus of 718,000 [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The general public budget deficit ratio for 2025 is raised to 4%, with a broad fiscal deficit ratio expected to reach 8.7% [6] - Government bond financing for 2026 is projected at RMB12.28 trillion to support a fiscal deficit ratio of 8.6% [6] - General public budget revenue is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2026, reversing a 0.6% decline in 2025 [7] Market Strategy - The Hang Seng Index is projected to reach 30,100 by December 2026, based on a forecasted P/E ratio of 13.0, which is a 15% premium over the historical average [10] - Key investment opportunities include sectors focused on economic growth, technological innovation, and domestic consumption [10]

非银金融 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 强于大市 证券行业"十五五"发展展望 深化资本市场改革，绘就行业高质量成长新蓝图 12 月 5 日吴清主席人民日报署名文章提出了六大重点任务，为资本市场与券 商行业发展锚定方向。12 月 6 日，吴清出席中国证券业协会第八次会员大会， 围绕证券行业高质量发展发表了致辞。"十五五"期间资本市场深化改革方 向与证券行业高质量发展路径明晰，当前券商板块估值处于历史较低位置， 在行业景气度向好的背景下存在估值中枢上修空间，建议布局头部券商扩大 综合优势与中小券商打造差异化特色化竞争力两条主线。 要点 投资建议 监管政策定调积极，券商板块估值存在上修空间。当前监管政策定调积 极，引导资本市场生态优化与机构高质量发展，证券行业"十五五"发 展路径清晰。截至 12 月 5 日，板块市净率 1.36 倍，位于近十年 34%分位， 在行业景气度上升背景下存在上修空间。建议关注头部综合券商优势扩 大以及特色中小券商错位发展两条主线。 风险提示 监管政策、宏观经济发展及市场流动性表现不及预期；证券市场及利率 大幅波动导致业绩波动加剧；资本市场开放加速带来海外 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [42]. Core Insights - The recent speeches and writings by Chairman Wu Qing have clarified the direction for high-quality development in the capital market and the securities industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The focus is on enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [3]. - The current valuation of the brokerage sector is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for upward adjustment in valuations as industry conditions improve. It is recommended to focus on leading comprehensive brokerages and differentiated smaller brokerages [5][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the non-bank financial industry as "Outperform the Market" [42]. Industry News - Chairman Wu Qing's recent statements emphasize the need for high-quality development in the securities industry, with a shift from homogeneous competition to differentiated competition. This includes supporting leading brokerages to strengthen their market position and encouraging smaller firms to focus on niche markets [3][5]. Weekly Data - From December 1 to December 5, the CSI All Share Index rose by 0.77%, with the brokerage sector increasing by 1.14%. The insurance sector saw a significant rise of 5.08% [12][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current regulatory environment is positive, with the brokerage sector's valuation having room for upward adjustment. The sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 1.36 times, which is in the 34th percentile over the past decade, indicating potential for improvement as industry conditions become more favorable [5][2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the following key points: 1) Focus on undervalued industry leaders; 2) The impact of "anti-involution" on the supply side of related sub-industries; 3) The increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][4] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 1-7, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 29 saw price decreases, and 29 remained stable. 41% of products had month-on-month average prices rising, while 47% fell, and 12% remained unchanged [11][33] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $60.08 per barrel, a weekly increase of 1.28%, and Brent crude at $63.75 per barrel, up 0.92% [34] - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,356 CNY/ton, up 3.84% week-on-week and 6.89% month-on-month [35] - DMC prices also rose to 13,700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.48% increase week-on-week and a 23.42% increase from the November 12 low [35] Investment Recommendations - As of December 7, 2025, the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.52, at the 75.42 percentile historically, while the P/B ratio is 2.24, at the 57.66 percentile [14] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and new energy materials [14] - Long-term investment themes include: 1) Demand recovery supported by policy, with continuous supply optimization; 2) Rapid development in downstream industries such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials; 3) Structural reforms in supply-side, focusing on high-performing sub-industries like fluorochemicals and agrochemicals [14] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others [14] - December's "Golden Stocks" are Wanhua Chemical and Anji Technology [8]