Key Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for September, including 京沪高铁 (601816.SH), 桐昆股份 (601233.SH), 雅克科技 (002409.SZ), 宁德时代 (300750.SZ), 恒瑞医药 (600276.SH), 三友医疗 (688085.SH), 北京人力 (600861.SH), 菲利华 (300395.SZ), 兆易创新 (603986.SH), and 鹏鼎控股 (002938.SZ) [1] Fixed Income - The report maintains a view on gradual improvement in PPI and a slow recovery in long-term bond yields, indicating signs of stabilization in upstream prices and a potential seasonal improvement in food prices due to upcoming holidays [2][5] Electronics - The report discusses Apple's 2025 Fall Product Launch, noting the introduction of eight new products, including the iPhone 17 series, which features significant design innovations and improved cost-performance ratios, likely to drive sales growth [2][7][8] Oil and Petrochemicals - 中国海油 reported a revenue of 207.61 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 69.53 billion yuan, down 12.79%. The company continues to show resilience and improved risk management capabilities despite the revenue decline [3][12] - 中国石油's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,450.10 billion yuan, down 6.74% year-on-year, with a net profit of 83.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.42%. The company is focusing on increasing natural gas production and enhancing its refining and chemical transformation [3][17] Market Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3875.31, up 1.65%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12979.89, up 3.36%. The electronics and communication sectors showed strong performance, with increases of 5.96% and 7.39% respectively [4] Company Financials - 万润股份 reported a total revenue of 1.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.42% year-on-year, but with a net profit increase of 1.35%. The company is seeing improvements in its pharmaceutical business, with significant growth in its medical subsidiary [23][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant innovations in the iPhone 17 series, particularly the iPhone 17 Air, which features a super-thin body of 5.6mm and a high cost-performance ratio for the standard version, likely driving sales growth for the company [1][7]. - The pricing strategy for the iPhone 17 series is attractive, with the standard model offering increased storage from 128GB to 256GB at the same price of 5999 yuan, making it eligible for a government subsidy [4][7]. - The report suggests that the upcoming AI innovations and potential new product launches, such as foldable screens in 2026, could lead to a new growth phase for the company's supply chain [7]. Summary by Sections iPhone 17 Series - The iPhone 17 Air is the thinnest iPhone to date at 5.6mm and weighs only 165 grams, equipped with the A19 Pro chip and a 48MP main camera [3]. - The iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max feature a new aluminum unibody design, enhanced thermal conductivity, and upgraded camera systems with 48MP lenses [3]. - The pricing for the iPhone 17 series starts at 5999 yuan for the standard model, 7999 yuan for the Air, 8999 yuan for the Pro, and 9999 yuan for the Pro Max [4]. AirPods Pro 3 and Apple Watch 11 Series - The AirPods Pro 3 introduces real-time translation capabilities and improved active noise cancellation, priced at 1899 yuan [4]. - The Apple Watch 11 series maintains the previous year's S10 chip but adds 5G support and enhancements in scratch resistance and temperature sensing [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on supply chain companies such as Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, and GoerTek, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated growth in the industry [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The court issued a preliminary injunction to temporarily block Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office. This decision further solidifies the baseline expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, marginally reduces the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut, and slightly lowers the probability of three cumulative rate cuts within the year. The decision has limited ability to drive long - term interest rates significantly lower, and the marginal slowdown of rate cuts drags on risk sentiment [4]. - The case is still in litigation, and subsequent uncertainties remain. The market should not over - price it as a settled matter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Points Legal Reasoning - The court tends to adopt a narrow interpretation of "For Cause" in the Federal Reserve Act, which should focus on an official's on - the - job performance rather than pre - appointment private matters. Trump's dismissal reason targeting Cook's pre - appointment mortgage statement dispute does not constitute "For Cause" [3]. - There is a lack of due process. The Fed governor's position is a "property interest" protected by due process. Trump did not provide prior notice, clear evidence, or a meaningful opportunity for defense, which fails to meet the minimum requirements [3]. Impact on the Market - The injunction allows Cook to participate in next week's FOMC meeting, strengthening the 25 - basis - point rate cut expectation in September, marginally reducing the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut, and slightly lowering the probability of three cumulative rate cuts within the year. The decision alone has limited ability to drive long - term interest rates significantly lower [4]. - For risk assets, the marginal slowdown of rate cuts under the current recession - inclined narrative has a certain negative impact on risk sentiment [4]. Litigation Progress - The case is still in the litigation process. The background that the judge was appointed by Biden may lead to a more politically - charged public interpretation, and subsequent uncertainties remain [5]. - In a similar case, the Federal Trade Commission's Slaughter was allowed to return to work after a favorable ruling but was then blocked by the Supreme Court's temporary stay order, indicating the complexity of the case's development [5].

Index Performance - The HSI closed at 26,200, up 1.0% in one day and 30.6% year-to-date [1] - The HSCEI closed at 9,328, up 0.9% in one day and 28.0% year-to-date [1] - The HSCCI closed at 4,377, up 0.6% in one day and 15.8% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI HK closed at 13,646, up 1.2% in one day and 29.2% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI CHINA closed at 86, up 0.6% in one day and 33.1% year-to-date [1] - The FTSE CHINA A50 closed at 14,844, up 0.5% in one day and 9.9% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 closed at 4,445, up 0.2% in one day and 13.0% year-to-date [1] - The TWSE closed at 25,193, up 1.4% in one day and 9.4% year-to-date [1] - The SENSEX closed at 81,101, up 0.4% in one day and 3.8% year-to-date [1] - The NIKKEI 225 closed at 43,838, up 0.9% in one day and 9.9% year-to-date [1] - The KOSPI closed at 3,315, up 1.7% in one day and 38.1% year-to-date [1] - The ASX 200 closed at 8,805, down 0.2% in one day and up 6.4% year-to-date [1] - The DJIA closed at 45,491, down 0.5% in one day and up 6.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,532, up 0.3% in one day and 11.1% year-to-date [1] - The FTSE 100 closed at 9,225, down 0.2% in one day and up 12.9% year-to-date [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude closed at US$68/bbl, up 1.8% in one day and down 6.2% year-to-date [2] - Gold closed at US$3,641/oz, up 0.4% in one day and 38.7% year-to-date [2] - Copper closed at US$9,914/t, unchanged in one day and up 13.1% year-to-date [2] - Aluminum closed at US$2,626/t, up 0.2% in one day and 3.9% year-to-date [2] - Nickel closed at US$14,917/t, down 0.8% in one day and 1.3% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic steel rebar 25 closed at RMB3,244/t, unchanged in one day and down 9.1% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic high speed wire closed at RMB3,614/t, down 0.1% in one day and 5.1% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic hot rolled steel closed at RMB3,420/t, down 0.1% in one day and 1.5% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic cold rolled steel closed at RMB3,914/t, unchanged in one day and down 6.7% year-to-date [2] - The BDI index closed at 2,019, unchanged in one day and up 102.5% year-to-date [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - US Initial Jobless Claims were 237.0k, higher than the consensus of 235.0k [3] - US Continuing Jobless Claims were 1,940.0k, lower than the consensus of 1,950.0k [3] - US CPI urban consumers MoM was 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.3% [3] - US CPI urban consumers YoY was 2.7%, lower than the consensus of 2.9% [3] - US CPI urban consumers was 323.0, lower than the consensus of 323.9 [3] - The Univ. of Michigan Sentiment was 58.2, higher than the consensus of 58.0 [3] - US Treasury Federal Budget Deb was -$291.1 billion, better than the consensus of -$340.0 billion [3] - FOF Federal Reserve US Household was -1,594.6% [3] - US Empire State Manufacturing was 11.9, higher than the consensus of 4.9 [3] - US Import Price Index Chg was 0.4% [3] - US Import Price Index YoY was -0.2% [3] - US capacity utilization was 77.5%, higher than the consensus of 77.4% [3] - US Industrial Production MoM was -0.1%, lower than the consensus of 0.0% [3] - US Industrial Production Indus MoM was 0.0% [3] - US Manufacturing & Trade Inven Mon was 0.2%, in line with the consensus [3] - Adjusted Retail & Food Service Mon was 0.5%, higher than the consensus of 0.3% [3] - Adjusted Retail Sales Less Auto MoM was 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.5% [3] Key BOCI Events - Zhou Liu Fu (Tencent Meeting at 10:30am) 6168.HK on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Innovative Drug Lecture - Targeting the New Future Series IX: WCLC Innovative Drug Data Interpretation (Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Domestic Server Industry Landscape and Outlook (Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Overseas Hard Tech Seminar: Focus on AI ASIC Chip Thermal Design (Tencent Meeting at 3:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - Raphael Chen - Internet Sector Marketing (1x1) in HK on 11 - 12 Sep [4] - Tony Fei - Power Sector Marketing (1x1) in SH on 15 - 16 Sep [4] - Raphael Chen - Media Sector Marketing (1x1) in SH on 18 - 19 Sep [4] - Luk Fook (Tencent Meeting at 11am) 0590.HK on 25 Sep [4] - Fortior Tech 峰岹科技 (1x1, Group Lunch) 1304.HK/688279.CH on 26 Sep [4] China Economy - In August, CPI edged down 0.4% YoY after being unchanged in July, while core CPI grew 0.9% YoY, up 0.1ppt from July [5][7] - The "industrial anti-involution" policy further took effect in August, improving the prices of durable goods CPI and some raw material PPI growth [5][7] - PPI dropped 2.9% YoY in August after falling 3.6% YoY in July, and the growth trend of both CPI and PPI is expected to gradually pick up amid the low base last year, narrowing the decline of GDP deflator [6][7] Hello Group Inc - The company's rating is HOLD, with a target price of US$8.30 and a current price of US$7.88 [8] - In 2Q25, the topline was -3% YoY, meeting BOCIe. Excluding non-recurring RMB548m accrual withholding tax, adj. NPM was 17.2%, beating consensus [8] - ROI remains the top assessment benchmark for operating domestic core Momo, Tantan and overseas businesses in 2H25. The company is expected to dynamically increase the revenue sharing ratio for core Momo in 2H25 to offset the negative impact of strict tax scrutiny [9][10] - The company will implement a more prudent model for its overseas expansion in 2H25 [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the new housing transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis but positive on a year-on-year basis, indicating a mixed market performance [18] - The report emphasizes that the second-hand housing transaction area has seen an expanded month-on-month decline while the year-on-year increase has also expanded, suggesting a recovery trend in the second-hand market [18] - The report notes that the inventory of new homes has shifted from a negative to a positive month-on-month change, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating improved market conditions [18] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of August 30 to September 5, 2025, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 10.3% but a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [19] - The new housing transaction area was 184.9 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.0% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [28] - The transaction volume for first, second, and third-fourth tier cities showed varied month-on-month growth rates of 13.7%, -16.7%, and -23.9% respectively [20][21] Inventory Situation - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.398 million units, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.1% and a year-on-year decline of 15.0% [30] - The new home inventory turnover period was 18.7 months, showing a slight decrease month-on-month but an increase year-on-year [31] - The inventory turnover period for first, second, and third-fourth tier cities was 18.9, 15.7, and 72.1 months respectively [48] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 18 cities totaled 15,000 units, with a month-on-month decline of 13.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [51] - The transaction area for second-hand homes was 138.8 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [57] - The transaction volume for first, second, and third-fourth tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of -10.4%, -14.0%, and -16.2% respectively [55] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 15.48 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 37.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% [64] - The total land transaction price was 26.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 74.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 47.7% [67] - The average land price per square meter was 1,681.9 yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 27.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.4% [66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [6] - It also highlights smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, such as Poly Real Estate Group [6] - Companies benefiting from the ongoing recovery in the second-hand housing market, like Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia, are also recommended [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 13.29 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Views - The company's pharmaceutical business has shown improvement, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 4.42% to RMB 1.87 billion in the first half of 2025, but a net profit increase of 1.35% to RMB 218 million. The second quarter saw a revenue of RMB 1.01 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.95%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.12% [3][7]. - The report highlights the company's diverse new material layouts and the successful recovery of its pharmaceutical business, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [4][7]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1.87 billion, with a net profit of RMB 218 million, reflecting a 1.35% increase year-on-year. The second quarter's net profit was RMB 138 million, up 18.25% year-on-year [8][9]. - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be RMB 0.44, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.63, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30.4x, 24.7x, and 21.2x respectively [4][6]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in various new materials, including semiconductor manufacturing materials and thermoplastic polyimide materials, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inflation situation aligns with the scenario of a slow recovery in long - term bond yields, and the judgment of a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow recovery in long - term bond yields is maintained [2][14]. - Core CPI continues its upward trend, with the year - on - year increase in August reaching 0.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month, indicating positive changes in the consumer price sector due to the continuous effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [2][5]. - Food prices continue to drag down CPI growth, suggesting that the growth of catering consumption may still be slow [2][5]. - The downward trend of upstream prices shows signs of stabilization, and the absolute level of the edible agricultural product price index has slightly rebounded. The price of edible agricultural products is expected to improve seasonally in September, but the narrowing of the year - on - year decline may be slow [2][11]. - In August, the signs of PPI reaching the bottom became more obvious, with the month - on - month change turning flat and the year - on - year decline narrowing due to the base effect. The narrowing of the decline in real estate and commodity export prices provides conditions for PPI to reach the bottom [2][11]. - Referring to the experience of the steel industry, it is expected that other key industries will mainly conduct precise regulation of production capacity and output, which is expected to promote the gradual improvement of PPI [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with food prices dropping by 4.3% and non - food prices rising by 0.5%. The CPI remained flat month - on - month [4]. - Core CPI continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in August, and the growth rate expanded for the fourth consecutive month, showing positive changes in consumption prices due to domestic demand expansion policies [2][5]. - Food prices continued to drag down CPI growth. The year - on - year decline in food CPI in August was 4.3%, and the drag on CPI year - on - year was greater than the overall CPI decline, indicating slow growth in catering consumption [2][5]. - The edible agricultural product price index slightly rebounded in August, but the year - on - year decline was still large due to the base effect. In September, prices are expected to improve seasonally, but the narrowing of the year - on - year decline may be slow because of the late Mid - Autumn Festival [11]. 3.2 PPI Analysis - In August 2025, PPI showed obvious signs of reaching the bottom, with the month - on - month change turning flat and the year - on - year decline narrowing due to the base effect. The narrowing of the decline in real estate and commodity export prices provided downstream demand conditions for PPI to reach the bottom [11]. - Referring to the steel industry experience, it is expected that other key industries will mainly regulate production capacity and output precisely, which will promote the gradual improvement of PPI. The government has set a target for the steel industry's added - value to grow by an average of 4% annually from 2025 - 2026 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [2][5][7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operating performance, with a focus on enhancing long-term investment value. Despite a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, the company is expected to benefit from its competitive advantages across the entire industry chain [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's oil and gas production growth, with an increase in natural gas contribution and ongoing upgrades in refining and chemical sectors, which are expected to enhance profitability [5][10]. - The valuation adjustments reflect a cautious outlook on international oil prices, while still recognizing the company's strong refining segment [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1,450.099 billion, a decrease of 6.74% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 83.993 billion, down 5.42% [5][11]. - The average Brent crude oil price for the first half of 2025 was USD 71.87 per barrel, a decline of 14.5% compared to the previous year [10]. - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 923.6 million barrels, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year, with domestic crude oil production up by 0.6% and marketable natural gas production up by 4.7% [10][11]. Segment Performance - The refining segment reported an operating profit of RMB 9.664 billion, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, while the chemical segment saw a profit of RMB 1.392 billion, down significantly due to lower product prices [10]. - The company processed 694.3 million barrels of crude oil, a slight increase of 0.1%, and produced 5.9572 million tons of refined oil, a decrease of 0.9% [10]. Dividend and Capital Expenditure - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at RMB 0.22 per share, with a total payout of approximately RMB 40.265 billion, reflecting a payout ratio of 47.94%, an increase of 1.99 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The total capital expenditure for 2025 is projected at RMB 262.2 billion, with a focus on oil and gas, renewable energy, refining, and chemical sectors [10].

Key Points - The report highlights a focus on the macroeconomic environment, noting that the August CPI growth rate was lower than expected, while the PPI growth rate met expectations, indicating structural changes in consumer prices and the impact of policies on supply-demand dynamics [2][5][6] - The report discusses the recent trends in the A-share merger and acquisition market, indicating a decrease in overall activity but with a diverse range of participants and sectors involved [8] - The Shanghai real estate market is analyzed, revealing a high proportion of older properties, with 82% of existing residential communities being over 20 years old, which poses challenges for the market [9][10][11] Macroeconomic Analysis - August CPI remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a structural divergence in consumer prices [5][6] - The report notes that food prices have a significant downward impact on CPI, while non-food prices have shown a consistent increase, contributing to the overall CPI growth [6][7] Mergers and Acquisitions - The report states that there were 68 disclosed M&A events during the period, with a total transaction value of 519 billion RMB, reflecting a decline in both the number and value of major M&A activities [8] - Key sectors for M&A activity included real estate management, machinery, and semiconductor products, indicating a trend towards horizontal integration and strategic cooperation among private and local state-owned enterprises [8] Real Estate Market Insights - The report identifies that as of May 2025, Shanghai had 27,500 existing residential communities, with 64% of the 9.62 million existing homes being over 20 years old, highlighting the aging housing stock [9][10] - The analysis of the Shanghai housing market indicates a cyclical evolution, with significant price fluctuations and regulatory impacts over the past three decades, leading to a current phase of stabilization and structural differentiation [10][11] Future Development Plans - The report outlines the "CAZ" (Central Activity Zone) and "One River, One River" initiatives as key future development directions for Shanghai, aiming to enhance urban functionality and livability [12][13] - The CAZ is projected to cover 75 square kilometers, contributing 25% of the city's GDP, while the "One River" initiative focuses on ecological and cultural improvements along the Huangpu and Suzhou Rivers [12][13] Sales and Pricing Trends - New home sales in Shanghai showed a positive year-on-year growth of 5% in the first five months of 2025, reversing a downward trend from previous years, while second-hand home sales also experienced significant growth [14][15] - The report notes that the average price of new homes reached 92,119 RMB per square meter, while second-hand home prices faced downward pressure, indicating a divergence in market performance [17][19] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that the overall inventory in Shanghai has increased, with a total of 39.06 million square meters of new and second-hand home inventory, but the average de-stocking period remains healthy at 14.9 months [21][22] - New home inventory pressure is concentrated in the outer ring areas, while second-hand home inventory pressure is more pronounced in the inner ring, reflecting differing supply-demand dynamics [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 207.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 69.53 billion, down 12.79% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of RMB 100.75 billion, a decline of 12.62% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 32.97 billion, down 17.60% year-on-year [3][9][10]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company demonstrated strong resilience and risk management capabilities, supported by solid fundamentals in its oil and gas operations and ongoing cost optimization efforts [3][8]. - The company achieved a record high net production of 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent in the first half of 2025, representing a 6.1% year-on-year increase, with domestic production growing by 7.6% [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue for 2025 is projected to be RMB 422.80 billion, with a slight growth rate of 0.5% [7]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 138.15 billion, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% compared to 2024 [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 2.91, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.9 times [5][7]. Valuation and Market Position - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to withstand fluctuations in international oil prices due to its low-cost advantage and continuous capacity expansion [5][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout, with a proposed interim dividend of HKD 0.73 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 45.5% [8][9].