低估值反攻，近在咫尺 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 ❑ 市场的增量资金在哪里？ 非机构大资金活跃度边际回落，科创综指 ETF 建仓形成托底： 第一，非机构大资金活跃度边际回落。我们根据龙虎榜数据计算得到非机构大资 金活跃度指标，从结果上来看，非机构大资金活跃度于 2025 年初至 2 月中旬期 间持续上升，但最近 2 周边际回落。 第二，科创综指 ETF 建仓带来被动资金涌入。截至 2 月 28 日，前期上报的科创 综指 ETF 目前仅建信基金旗下产品已上市交易，后续其他产品的持续建仓有望 带来被动资金涌入。 综合来看，大资金活跃度降低，意味着活跃资金风险偏好下降，以 TMT 为代表 的科技板块未来或阶段性调整，但在科创综指等被动资金建仓的支撑下，调整幅 度或有限，整体呈现震荡下行格局。从行情结构上，我们判断市场重心将由科技 成长转向低估值，低估值反攻有望开启，看好顺周期类的地产链及消费板块的投 资机会。 ❑ 行业结构如何选择？ 主线切换，低估值反攻有望开启： 第一，交易面上来看，经过本周调整后，通信、电子、计算机、传媒四行业拥挤 度略有下降，但仍然全部处于 95%预警分位阈值以上，调整可能尚未充分。另 外，英 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market volatility suggests that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) is at the beginning of a bull market, with 1000 points identified as the starting point[1] - The STAR Market is compared to the ChiNext board during the 2013-2015 bull market, indicating a similar trajectory driven by the AI wave[2] - As of February 23, 2025, the STAR Market consists of approximately 585 companies, with 42% in the new generation information technology sector and 19% in the biopharmaceutical sector[11] Group 2: Valuation and Profitability - The STAR Market's overall PE-TTM (excluding negative values) is around 55 times, with a projected PE of approximately 43 times for 2025, indicating it remains relatively undervalued[18] - Profitability for the STAR Market is expected to improve, with a forecasted net profit growth of 79% for 2025, following a bottoming out in 2024[26] - The biopharmaceutical sector within the STAR Market has shown a significant recovery, with net profit growth turning positive in the first quarter of 2024[35] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Two main stock selection strategies are recommended: focusing on leading stocks in the STAR Market and considering newer stocks that have recently listed[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and technology sectors as key drivers for the STAR Market in 2025, particularly in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and biopharmaceuticals[31] - Fund allocation to the STAR Market is currently about 13.2%, which is expected to increase as profitability improves and AI-driven opportunities arise[27] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery and underperformance of emerging industries like AI, which could negatively impact the STAR Market[48] - The effectiveness of historical market patterns may diminish due to changing economic and industry dynamics[48]

| 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年3月2日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 321 | | -1 7% . | -0 . | 9% | | | 沪深300 | | 3 , | 890 | | -2 2% . | -1 . | 1% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 225 | | 3 2% . | 5 . | 8% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 271 | | 5 3% . | 8 . | 8% | | | | SW特钢指数 | 3 , | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - Fresh pet food represents a new direction in the upgrade and anthropomorphism of pet food consumption, emphasizing fresh, human-grade ingredients with high moisture content and minimal processing [1][2] - FreshPet, a leading company in the fresh pet food market, achieved a revenue of $975 million in FY24, marking a 27.2% increase year-on-year, with a CAGR of 32.5% from 2019 to 2024 [3][4] - The domestic market is beginning to follow the overseas trend, with companies like Pet&Fresh adapting the fresh food model to local preferences [7][8] Product Overview - Fresh pet food is primarily made from fresh meat and vegetables, with a high protein content exceeding 70%, and is available in both freshly made and refrigerated forms [1][2] - FreshPet's product range includes various high-end offerings, such as Vital and Nature's Fresh, catering to different consumer needs [4] Market Dynamics - FreshPet has established a strong market presence with a 3.4% share in the dog food market and a 96% share in the fresh food category in the U.S. [3] - The company has a robust supply chain with multiple production facilities and plans for expansion to meet growing demand [6] Competitive Landscape - The fresh pet food market is characterized by high transportation and storage costs due to the need for cold chain logistics, which presents both challenges and opportunities for pricing strategies [2][10] - Pet&Fresh is innovating in the domestic market by leveraging online channels and offering a diverse product range to attract consumers [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong supply chains and innovative research capabilities, such as Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent market adjustments may provide better investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector, particularly in brokerage and insurance segments [1][2][4] - The report notes a surge in mergers and acquisitions within the brokerage sector, with several firms announcing consolidation plans, which has led to increased market expectations [1] - The insurance sector is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with a notable increase in the allocation of stocks and long-term bonds by insurance companies, indicating a strategic shift to capitalize on market conditions [2] Summary by Sections Brokerage - The report recommends specific brokerage firms including China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities, while suggesting to pay attention to East Asia Securities, Western Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Huaxi Securities [4] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing M&A activities and a potential rebound in stock prices following the recent market corrections [1] Insurance - The report recommends major insurance companies such as New China Life, China Life, and China Property & Casualty Insurance [4] - The insurance sector's asset allocation has shifted significantly, with stock and bond investments increasing by 28.29% and 26.31% respectively year-on-year, reflecting a proactive approach to market fluctuations [2] Multi-Financial and Fintech - The report suggests investments in firms like Zhinanzhen and Dongfang Caifu, while also recommending attention to Dingdian Software and Wealth Trend [4] Overseas Financial - The report advises focusing on companies such as Futu Holdings, Tiger Brokers, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, Lianlian Digital, and OSL Group [4] Market Data - The report notes that the equity market experienced a comprehensive pullback, with the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices declining by 2.22% and 4.87% respectively during the week [13][14]

Group 1: PMI and Manufacturing Insights - The manufacturing PMI for February 2025 recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a recovery influenced by the post-Spring Festival period[1] - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 52.5%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs decreased to 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively[1] - The production index for large enterprises increased nearly 5 percentage points to 56.2%, serving as a core support for the manufacturing sector's recovery in February[1] Group 2: Demand and Economic Outlook - The new orders index for manufacturing improved to 51.1%, up 1.9 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion after briefly falling below 50%[9] - The overall economic growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, with the first quarter GDP growth potentially reaching 5.1%[16] - The composite PMI output index for February was 51.1%, reflecting an overall recovery in economic sentiment[16] Group 3: Sector Performance and Trends - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector was above 54%, showing a nearly 2 percentage point increase, while high-tech manufacturing reached 53%, up 3 percentage points[3] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased to 782,500 tons in February, significantly higher than the previous month's 639,700 tons[7] - The EPMI for strategic emerging industries rose to 49%, a 3.4 percentage point increase, ending a four-month decline[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, is expected to benefit from policy catalysts and market dynamics as the National People's Congress convenes in March 2025. The report suggests actively allocating investments in this sector, especially in the second quarter when the sector enters a low base period [1][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and inventory management in the liquor sector, recommending key players such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai for high-end liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu and Yanghe Brewery for mid-range and regional brands [20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector performed well during the Spring Festival, with regional leaders like Su and Hui wines showing strong results. The report suggests that positioning is more critical than timing, recommending active allocation at current levels [1][20]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: "sustained momentum" and "low base recovery," highlighting high-end liquor recommendations such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai, and mid-range options like Gujing Gongjiu and Yanghe Brewery [20]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report outlines two main investment themes for the consumer goods sector in 2025: the "prosperity theme" and the "recovery theme." It emphasizes the importance of new retail channels and the expected policy stimulus for the restaurant supply chain [26]. - Recommended stocks include Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili Group, focusing on high-prosperity segments and recovery opportunities [26]. Market Performance - From February 21 to February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the liquor sector rose by 1.58%, with notable gains from brands like Jiuziyuan and Zhenjiu Lidong [3][30]. - The consumer goods sector saw significant rebounds in leisure foods and meat products, with leading stocks like Zhuangyuan Ranch and Hainan Yedao showing substantial increases [21][30]. Price Trends - The report tracks key liquor prices, noting that Kweichow Moutai's price remains stable at approximately 2,215 RMB per bottle, while Wuliangye maintains a price of around 950 RMB [19][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The ready-to-drink beverage industry is a high-quality consumer segment with a market size exceeding 510 billion yuan and a double-digit growth rate. The industry has a low penetration rate and high-quality offerings, indicating significant growth potential, especially in lower-tier cities [3][4] - Major players like Mixue Ice City and Luckin Coffee have established strong market positions and are expected to continue expanding through both domestic and international strategies. Other brands like Gu Ming and Lucky Coffee are also solidifying their positions in the first tier of the industry [3] - The competition landscape is evolving, with a noticeable increase in store closures in the ready-to-drink tea segment, while the coffee segment remains competitive with a clear concentration of leading brands [4] Industry Scale - The ready-to-drink beverage industry reached a scale of over 510 billion yuan in 2023, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% from 2018 to 2023. The market for ready-to-drink tea and coffee is approximately 250 billion yuan and 170 billion yuan, respectively [4][18] - The ready-to-drink tea segment is the largest, accounting for about 50% of the total market, while the ready-to-drink coffee segment is the fastest-growing, with a CAGR of nearly 36% from 2018 to 2023 [4][21][25] Brand Competition Landscape - The competition in the ready-to-drink tea segment is easing, with a significant increase in store closures over the past three years. In contrast, the coffee segment remains highly competitive, with a clear trend of brand concentration [4][41] - The top five brands in the ready-to-drink tea segment hold a market share of approximately 16.8%, while the top ten brands account for about 23.2%. In the coffee segment, the top five brands have a market share of around 22.2% [4][51][53] Future Outlook - There is substantial growth potential in the ready-to-drink beverage market, with per capita consumption in China still having over eight times the room for growth compared to developed markets. The industry is expected to maintain a double-digit growth rate, with the market size projected to exceed 1.1 trillion yuan by 2028 [4][26][30] - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage segment is anticipated to be the primary driver of growth, with a projected CAGR of 22% from 2023 to 2028 [30][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a revenue increase of 10% and a net profit increase of 25% for 2024. Excluding convertible bond interest expenses, the net profit is approximately 234 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 43% [2][4] - The company has deepened strategic cooperation with five major cross-border e-commerce platforms, enhancing service capabilities through AI [3][4] - The business structure has been optimized, with a gross margin increase of 3 percentage points, and the logistics business is experiencing accelerated growth [4][8] Financial Overview - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 205 million yuan. The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.449 billion yuan, 1.592 billion yuan, and 1.778 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 241 million yuan, 290 million yuan, and 341 million yuan [10][12] - The company is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8% to 12% in revenue and 18% to 20% in net profit over the next three years [4][10] Business Structure - The comprehensive logistics segment generated 780 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 58% of total revenue, while the supply chain distribution segment generated 570 million yuan, accounting for 42% [8] - The company has established a three-tier warehousing system for Temu, providing a one-stop solution for cross-border logistics, which has reduced inventory redundancy by 20% [8][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is planning to build dedicated Amazon supply chain centers in southern China and Hainan, aiming to improve inventory turnover efficiency by 25% [8][9] - A pilot program for TikTok Shop is being tested in Hainan, aiming to compress delivery times to five days for Southeast Asian merchants [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is entering a period of rapid expansion, with a projected demand of approximately 2.04 million units and a market space of about 305 billion yuan by 2030 in the manufacturing and housekeeping sectors of China and the US [1] - The demand for 3D visual sensors for humanoid robots is expected to grow significantly, from 14 million yuan in 2025 to 915 million yuan in 2030, with a CAGR of 132% [1] - The company is positioned in the top tier globally for 3D visual perception technology, with a comprehensive technology development capability across six major 3D visual sensing technologies [2] - The company has a strong product presence across various industries, serving over 1,000 clients including major players like Ant Group and China Mobile [2] - Ant Group, a major shareholder and client, has announced its entry into the humanoid robot field, indicating potential for deepened collaboration in the robot vision sensor domain [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 560 million, 810 million, and 1.22 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 56%, 44%, and 51% respectively [4] - The company is expected to reduce its net loss from 60 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 140 million yuan in 2026, with a significant increase in net profit growth of 787% in 2026 [4] - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is projected to decrease from 47 in 2024 to 22 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [4]