Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue and GMV trends are expected to align with guidance, with a projected revenue decline of 4% year-on-year, while GMV growth is anticipated to turn positive. Profitability is expected to remain stable, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin projected at around 8%. The company is expected to see a recovery in revenue growth in the second half of the year due to improved demand in wearable categories and enhanced subsidy efficiency in standard products [1][4]. - The long-term outlook for the company remains positive, supported by its brand reputation for authentic discount sales and supply chain advantages, which help maintain platform value and core customer base. The company’s ongoing dividend payments and share buybacks reflect management's confidence in operations [1][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for 2023 is 112.856 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 3.9%, followed by a slight decrease of 1.0% in 2025. Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 9.510 billion yuan for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39.1% [2][9]. - The target valuation for the company is set at $19.10, with the current stock price at $15.12. The report indicates a total market capitalization of $7.8 billion and a PE ratio of 5.9 for 2023 [3][4]. User and Market Trends - User trends are showing steady improvement, with total user numbers expected to be close to flat year-on-year, and SVIP users projected to maintain double-digit growth. The company’s performance during the 618 shopping festival was robust, with significant sales in summer items and 3C digital products [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Zijin Mining [3]. Core Views - The acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan is expected to enhance Zijin Mining's resource reserves and gold production capacity, supporting the company's goal of achieving an annual gold output of 100-110 tons by 2028 [6][3]. - The projected net profit for the years 2025-2027 is estimated at 42.7 billion, 47.9 billion, and 56.5 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.1, 10.8, and 9.2 [6][3]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 293.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 470.5 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 31.9 billion CNY in 2023 to 85.8 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.79 CNY in 2023 to 2.13 CNY in 2027 [2][14]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Minxi Xinghang State-owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd., holding a 22.89% stake in the company [3]. Market Performance - The current share price is 19.5 CNY, with a total market capitalization of approximately 518.3 billion CNY [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 百强房企 25 年 6 月单月销售额负同比较上月扩大 11pct 至-21% 25 年 6 月百强房企销售数据解读 总量研究/房地产 摘要：据相关统计数据，百强房企 25 年 6 月单月销售额同比负增速较上月扩大 11pct 至-21%；25 年 6 月份单月销售额环比+17%，弱于过去三年同期环比均 值（+34%）；结构上，TOP1-10/11-30/ 31-50/ 51-100 房企 25 年 6 月销售额 同 比 增 速 较 上 月 下 降 17pct/ 下 降 4pct/ 下 降 14pct/ 上 升 2pct 至 -26%/-14%/-20%/-16%。 资料来源：中国指数研究院，克而瑞，公司公告，统计局，招商证券等; 风险提示：相关统计数据或有偏离，政策改善不及预期，销售下滑超预期，市 场流动性改善不及预期等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 256 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2704.2 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 25 ...

Manufacturing Sector - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, remaining below the expansion threshold of 50[1] - The production and demand indices have risen into the expansion zone, indicating a potential recovery in manufacturing activity[5] - The purchasing volume index showed the largest month-on-month improvement, followed by finished goods inventory and price indices[5] - The new orders index rose to 50.2, up by 0.4 from the previous month, while the new export orders index increased to 47.7, up by 0.2[10] - The price index remains at historical lows, which continues to squeeze future profit margins for companies[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.5, with the service sector at 50.1 and the construction sector at 52.8, indicating mixed performance across sectors[12] - The service sector PMI saw a slight decline due to seasonal adjustments post-holiday, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming summer consumption peak[12] - The construction sector PMI showed a recovery, with the business activity index for housing construction rising above 51%, signaling positive changes in housing activity[13] - The investment in construction remains low year-on-year, primarily due to insufficient real estate investment demand[13]

Valuation Improvement - 57 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have officially released market value management systems, while 154 SOEs have drafted but not yet published their systems, and 30 SOEs have announced valuation enhancement plans[8] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio of state-owned enterprises improved in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, with the number of enterprises in the 5 to 8 PB ratio range doubling[8] - As of 2024, 30 SOEs had a PB ratio below 1, accounting for 7.4% of the total SOEs, all of which have released valuation enhancement plans[8] Market Capitalization - The number of small-cap SOEs (market cap below 5 billion yuan) decreased to 57, while the number of SOEs with a market cap between 30 billion and 100 billion yuan increased by 11, totaling 65[15] - Higher market capitalization helps SOEs better fulfill their roles in the economy, with market cap being a direct reflection of stock price changes[15] Institutional Investor Engagement - In Q1 2025, the proportion of institutional investors holding shares in state-owned enterprises increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in holdings by other institutions[19] - The introduction of policies promoting diversified equity structures aims to attract long-term institutional investors, with a focus on those holding more than 5% of shares[19] Economic Performance - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial added value for state-controlled enterprises was 6.3%, while fixed asset investment growth was 5.9%, outperforming the national average by 2.2 percentage points[26] - State-owned enterprises achieved total operating revenue of 32.8 trillion yuan and total profit of 1.7 trillion yuan in the same period, with a profit growth rate of -0.1%[26]

Economic Growth and Price Trends - China's GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% for three consecutive quarters, but price levels continue to weaken[1] - CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, while PPI has dropped to -3.3%[1] - In contrast to 2015, when growth and prices were negatively correlated, the current situation shows high growth with persistent price weakness[1] Historical Comparison - In 2015, GDP growth slowed from 7.1% in the first half to 6.9% by Q4, with PPI declining by 5.9% in Q4, the lowest since 2010[1] - Policy easing began in late 2014, with significant measures taken in 2015, leading to a recovery in both growth and prices by mid-2017[1] Current Economic State - The current economic state is characterized as atypical, with high growth not translating into price increases, indicating a potential trend of prolonged price weakness[1] - Marginal improvements in domestic prices are noted, with core CPI showing signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year[1] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the main investment opportunities in the computer sector for the first half of 2025 are focused on three key themes: AI, financial technology innovation, and automation, with a notable preference for small-cap companies [1][18][21] - The performance of the computer sector is highlighted, with the Shenwan Computer Index showing a growth of 7.85% from January 1 to June 25, 2025, and a maximum increase of 41.33% during the same period [14][21] - The report identifies specific companies that have shown significant stock performance, such as Luqiao Information with a 271.26% increase and Huijin Co. with a 212.21% increase [15][29] Group 2 - The report discusses the rapid development of AI applications, particularly in the consumer sector, where active users of AI-native apps reached 270 million by March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 536.8% [32][33] - It notes that the integration of AI technology has significantly boosted the performance of companies like Meitu, which achieved a revenue of 3.34 billion yuan in 2024, a 23.9% increase year-on-year, largely due to AI-enhanced products [38][40] - The report highlights the importance of financial technology innovations, particularly stablecoins, which have seen a market capitalization of $251.1 billion as of June 25, 2025, with USDT and USDC being the leading stablecoins [6][28] Group 3 - The report outlines the commercialization of automation applications, such as Tesla's Robotaxi, which began operations in Austin, Texas, charging $4.2 per ride, indicating a significant step towards the realization of autonomous logistics [30][31] - It emphasizes the potential of companies like Jiu Shi and New Stone, which are leading the commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles, showcasing the rapid development of this sector [30][31] - The report also discusses the legislative advancements in stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets), which are expected to bridge traditional finance and Web3, enhancing the financial ecosystem [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a 3.11% increase in the week of June 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.19 percentage points [1][13]. - Key stocks that led the gains included Dazhongnan (+50%), Tiensheng New Materials (+31.41%), and Cangzhou Mingzhu (+26.93%) [1][13]. - The report suggests focusing on electronic chemicals related to PCB, particularly highlighting the price increases of ketone and monochloro methane [1]. Industry Performance - In the week of June 30, 2025, 26 sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, while 5 experienced declines. The top-performing sub-industries included other plastic products (+8.45%) and carbon black (+7.65%) [2][17]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector was reported at 24.76 times, which is 9.15 times lower than the average PE since 2015 [1][13]. Price and Spread Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were ketone (+11.77%), monochloro methane (+9.09%), and liquid chlorine (+7.35%) [3][20]. - Conversely, Brent crude oil saw a significant decline of 14.1%, while WTI crude oil dropped by 13.18% [3][20]. - The report also noted substantial changes in product spreads, with PX (CFR China) spread increasing by 71.09% [3][42]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were observed, with the highest increases in stocks of chlorpyrifos (+16.67%) and polyester chips (+9.16%) [4][60]. - Notably, urea and glyphosate inventories decreased by 8.33% and 7.69%, respectively [4][63]. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading companies in the compound fertilizer sector, such as Xinyangfeng, and in spherical silica powder, such as Lianrui New Materials [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a strong recommendation for Hewei Electric (禾望电气) with a market capitalization of 15.4 billion and a projected EPS of 1.54 for 2025, resulting in a PE ratio of 22.0 [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, emphasizing the importance of power systems in midstream manufacturing, power equipment, and renewable energy [1]. - The global nuclear fusion industry is experiencing significant investment and technological advancements, with various countries and private companies increasing their efforts in this field [9][18]. - The power system is identified as a critical component of controlled nuclear fusion devices, with high barriers to entry, suggesting that companies with established technology will benefit [24]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Acceleration of Overseas Nuclear Fusion Commercialization - The report notes that controlled nuclear fusion is nearing the critical stages of combustion and engineering trials, with significant government and private sector investments in the U.S., U.K., Japan, and the EU [9][11]. - Various technological routes for nuclear fusion are being explored, including magnetic confinement and inertial confinement, with the tokamak being the most mature technology [12][14]. Section 2: China's Concurrent Efforts - China is ramping up its nuclear fusion research, with state-owned enterprises and private companies collaborating to accelerate project implementation [18][19]. - The report mentions the establishment of new companies and projects, such as Fusion New Energy (聚变新能) and China Fusion Energy Co., which aim to attract investment and expedite development [19][23]. Section 3: Importance of Power Systems in Nuclear Fusion - Power systems are crucial for providing energy to controlled nuclear fusion devices, with significant cost implications, especially in the field-reversed configuration (FRC) route where power systems may account for nearly 40% of costs [24][39]. - The report details the complexity and high standards required for power systems, particularly in tokamak and FRC technologies, highlighting the need for companies with relevant technological expertise [30][40]. Section 4: Company Analysis - The report provides financial metrics for key companies in the nuclear fusion sector, including Hewei Electric, which is strongly recommended for investment due to its promising financial outlook [2]. - Other companies mentioned include Aikesaibo (爱科赛博) and Xuguang Electronics (旭光电子), which are also involved in the nuclear fusion supply chain but do not have specific ratings [2][24].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to regulate breeding sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2025-2026, benefiting the poultry sector and leading feed companies [1][38]. - The report highlights the increasing focus on food security amid frequent extreme weather events and trade tensions, suggesting a strategic shift in the agricultural sector [1]. Group 2: Swine Farming - In the first half of 2025, pig prices remained strong, influenced by slow recovery in breeding sow capacity and proactive market behavior before holidays, leading to a stable price range of 14.0-15.0 yuan/kg [12][15]. - The report anticipates limited growth in pig supply for 2025 due to cautious replenishment by producers, with expectations for pig prices to remain favorable in the second half of 2025 [15][31]. - Key companies recommended for investment in the swine sector include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, noted for their cost advantages and strong performance [38]. Group 3: Poultry Farming - The report is optimistic about the white-feathered chicken breeding sector, expecting a tightening supply of parent stock in the second half of 2025, which will positively impact the market [40][58]. - For yellow-feathered chickens, the report indicates that the current low inventory of parent stock, combined with reduced production costs, sets the stage for potential price recovery and profit expansion [52][58]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Agricultural and Dekang Agriculture, which are expected to benefit from improving market conditions [58]. Group 4: Feed and Veterinary Services - The report notes a recovery in demand for feed products as the breeding sector improves, with a positive outlook for companies like Haida Group, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [6][38]. - The veterinary services sector is also expected to see a recovery in demand, with a focus on leading companies in the animal health space [38]. Group 5: Seed Industry - The report highlights the rising importance of food security, with a focus on the seed industry, particularly in rice and corn, as the sector enters a phase of recovery and growth [38]. - The hybrid rice seed industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, while corn prices are rebounding, encouraging farmer planting enthusiasm [38][58]. - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, which are anticipated to benefit from these trends [38].