❑ 中美关税博弈、全球贸易格局改变的背景之下，自主可控、科技安全将会 更加作为我国产业发展的关键战略，政府部门将持续加码对该领域的政策 扶持，国产替代进程加速预期持续强化。 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表现， 亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议，新发基金无历史业绩可参考。 如何把握央国企引领下的数字经济发展投资机遇？ 发展数字经济是把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革新机遇的战略选择，对于我国 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@ cmschina.com.cn 杨航 S1090523010004 构建新发展格局，推动建设现代化经济体系，构筑国家竞争新优势具有重大战 略意义。富国中证诚通国企数字经济 ETF（159385.OF），一键布局央国企引 领下的数字经济发展方向，值得投资者在当前市场环境下重点关注。 ——富国中证诚通国企数字经济 ETF 投资价值分析 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 5 月 6 日 专题报告 yanghang4@cmschina ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that during the May Day holiday, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated against the US dollar, reaching the strong-side convertibility guarantee level for the first time since October 28, 2020, prompting intervention by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [4][9][11] - The report indicates that historical data shows that when the Hong Kong dollar touches the strong-side convertibility guarantee, A/H shares tend to perform well [4][11] - The report notes that the recent strength of the Hong Kong dollar and the renminbi reflects an increased preference for renminbi assets, which may positively impact the A-share market as market expectations and risk appetite improve [9][11] Group 2 - The report states that the US non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in market expectations for the first interest rate cut to July [4][5] - The report suggests that in May, the market may exhibit a pattern of "weight index recovery and active technology growth," with a return to a focus on technology and small-cap styles [4][5] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment has weakened, with a decrease in trading activity across various style indices and major industry turnover rates [38][44] Group 3 - The report mentions that the financing balance has decreased, with net selling of financing funds amounting to 157.6 billion yuan, and ETF net outflows of 143.8 billion yuan [29][33] - The report highlights that the net inflow of funds was primarily seen in the steel and automotive sectors, while significant outflows were noted in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials [48][49] - The report indicates that the IPO financing amount was 5.3 billion yuan, with a planned fundraising scale of 27.6 billion yuan for upcoming IPOs [33][34] Group 4 - The report notes that the market's risk premium has decreased, and the trading activity of financing funds has weakened, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading declining [38][40] - The report indicates that the VIX index has fallen, reflecting an improvement in overseas market risk appetite [40][41] - The report highlights that the overall market sentiment has shifted, with a notable decline in the turnover rates of various style indices and major industries [44][48] Group 5 - The report states that the recent monetary policy actions included a net injection of 735.8 billion yuan through reverse repos, with upcoming reverse repos totaling 16,178 billion yuan maturing [17][18] - The report indicates that the short-term bond yields have risen while long-term yields have decreased, leading to a narrowing of the yield spread [17][18] - The report mentions that the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit has decreased, with mixed changes in issuance rates [18][22]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 5 月 6 日 融资资金有望回流，小盘成长风格回归 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202505） 进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束， 市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和 概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境友好、以及融资资金可能逐渐回流，我们认为 A 股风格有望向小盘成长风格漂移。 ❑风格展望：小盘成长风格有望回归。进入 5 月后， A 股由春节效应、春季攻势、 业绩披露期等带来的季节效应结束，市场风格的季节性效应弱化，综合 A 股盈利 增速改善、中美贸易摩擦边际缓和概率逐渐增大、外部流动性环境、以及 A 股增 量资金结构变化，我们认为 A 股风格有望逐渐向小盘成长风格漂移。具体来说， 第一，2025 年一季度 A 股上市公司非金融石化企业净利润增速回升转正，从历史 来看，这比较有利于短期小盘成长风格表现。第二，目前中美双方就关税问题处 于僵持局面，但贸易摩擦最悲观的阶段已经过去，随着时间推移，中美开始磋商 的概率增大，不确定性风险会逐渐下降。第三，非农数据公布后，市场开始预期 6 月美联 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the e-commerce sector's competitive landscape is better than expected, with leading companies like Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop recommended due to their low valuations [1][18] - In the OTA segment, Ctrip's outbound travel and overseas business continue to show high growth, with a recommendation for Ctrip Group [1][20] - The local lifestyle sector shows strong profitability potential, with Meituan being a key recommendation [1][19] - In the shared mobility sector, Didi's market share stabilizes with significant profit growth potential, leading to a recommendation for Didi Chuxing [1][20] Industry Overview - The restaurant and tourism sector index decreased by 1.74%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index (down 0.43%) and the ChiNext index (up 0.04%) [6][8] - The retail sector index fell by 1.85%, also underperforming against the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [6][8] - During the May Day holiday, the total inter-regional population flow is expected to reach 1.467 billion, with a daily average of 293 million, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase [6][27] E-commerce Sector - The report indicates that the e-commerce sector's profit levels are expected to stabilize and improve, with a focus on Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD, and Vipshop [18][21] Local Lifestyle Sector - Meituan's core business profits exceeded expectations, with continued growth in its in-store services and flash purchase segments [19] Shared Mobility Sector - Didi is expected to maintain stable growth with significant profit potential, supported by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and optimized product structures [20] OTA Sector - Ctrip's Q4 2024 financial report showed a revenue of 12.74 billion yuan, a 23.4% increase, and a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan, a 13.6% increase, slightly exceeding market expectations [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.786 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, up 16.84% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 864 million yuan, a 22.46% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 73.77 million yuan, reflecting a 47.00% growth year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its personalized education business, increasing the number of learning centers from over 240 to more than 300, and enhancing its offline network [7]. - The financial condition has improved significantly, with contract liabilities reaching 932 million yuan, a 29.76% increase year-on-year, and the company actively repaying loans [7]. - The company has initiated a share repurchase plan of 110 to 150 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in its future development [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 was 2.213 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 2.786 billion yuan for 2024 and 3.482 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 23% and 26% respectively [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 180 million yuan in 2024 to 234 million yuan in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 35.9 and 27.6 [8][11]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 3.568 billion yuan by 2025, with a significant improvement in the asset-liability ratio from 81.3% in 2023 to 71.1% in 2025 [9][11]. Performance Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 25.1% in 2024 and 24.8% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 34% over the next few years, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.5% in 2024 to 7.6% in 2027 [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.47 yuan in 2024 to 1.92 yuan in 2025 [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.26 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.155 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the acquisition of New Trend Media, which is projected to enhance industry concentration and lead to a "Davis Double" effect [7] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, with a proposed total dividend of 4.766 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 92.4% [7] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, and a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [1] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 11.904 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.062 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% [3][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.827 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.955 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s elevator media network has expanded to approximately 1.26 million devices, a 19.2% increase from the end of 2023, indicating strong market penetration [7] - The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector remains a key growth driver, contributing 7.591 billion yuan in revenue, a 13.4% increase year-on-year, and accounting for 61.9% of total revenue [7] - The company has achieved profitability in markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore, while continuing to expand its overseas operations [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 60.797 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.55%. However, it recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 291 million yuan [1][7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.258 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.66% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, an increase of 16.01% [1] - The company's overseas advertising business generated 48.333 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 29.36%, accounting for 79.5% of total revenue [7] - The "All in AI" strategy has been deepened, with AI driving a significant revenue increase, achieving over 1 billion yuan in revenue from AI-enabled services [7] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 52.616 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 65.052 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7% [2][11] - The company is expected to return to profitability in 2025 with a net profit of 392 million yuan, following a loss in 2024 [2][12] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 22.371 billion yuan in 2024 to 25.241 billion yuan by 2027 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -3.8% in 2024 to 5.0% in 2025 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 13% in Q1 2025, benefiting from the upward cycle in the heavy truck industry [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the industry's upward trend over the next three years, with projected revenue growth rates of 21%, 12%, and 12% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The company holds the largest market share in the heavy truck sector, with a Q1 2025 market share of 28% [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 42.07 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 46% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.08 billion in 2023, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 406% [3] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 10.6x, 8.9x, and 7.6x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][11] Performance Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 7.1%, while the net margin was 3.3% [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 9.7% in 2024 to 14.4% by 2027 [11] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to stabilize around 62% in the coming years [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Weichai Power [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 57.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.71 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year but down 9.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company announced a share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in its future development, with a total buyback amount of 500 to 1,000 million yuan and a maximum buyback price of 23.57 yuan per share [6] - The report forecasts continued growth in revenue and net profit for 2025-2027, with total revenue expected to reach 229.26 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 6% year-on-year, and net profit expected to be 12.65 billion yuan, growing by 11% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 213.96 billion yuan (2023), 215.69 billion yuan (2024), 229.26 billion yuan (2025E), 247.74 billion yuan (2026E), and 268.94 billion yuan (2027E) [2] - The projected net profit for the same period is: 9.01 billion yuan (2023), 11.40 billion yuan (2024), 12.65 billion yuan (2025E), 14.94 billion yuan (2026E), and 17.59 billion yuan (2027E) [2] - The report indicates a PE ratio of 14.7 for 2023, decreasing to 7.5 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation [9] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.2%, with a net margin of 4.9% [6] - The report highlights a projected ROE of 12.9% for the current period, increasing to 16.7% by 2027 [9] - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 66.3% in 2023 to 58.9% in 2027, indicating improving financial stability [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in active dyes (+10%) and PTA (+3.17%), suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies related to these products [4][20]. - It recommends focusing on companies like Huaitong Co., which is expected to benefit from the application of modified plastics in the robotics sector, and Runtong Co., which may gain from the rising prices of active dyes [5]. Industry Performance - In the first week of May, the chemical sector (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 0.50%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which fell by 0.49% [2][12]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector stands at 24.05, which is lower than the average PE of 11.90 since 2015 [2][12]. Sub-industry Trends - Among the 15 sub-industries, five saw increases, with daily chemical products leading at +8.85%, while five sub-industries experienced declines, with synthetic leather dropping by -8.89% [3][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: active dyes (+10%), PTA (+3.17%), and butadiene (+2.86%) [4][20]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the melamine spread increasing by +73.47% and the PTA spread by +39.52% [4][36]. Inventory Changes - Key products with notable inventory changes include potassium chloride (-17.88%) and epoxy propane (-8.96%), indicating shifts in supply dynamics [5][56].