Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the issue of value and growth style rotation based on odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was -0.01%, while the value style portfolio returned -0.14% [8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.10, while the value style is estimated at 1.08, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rates indicate that 3 out of 7 indicators favor growth, resulting in a win rate of 68.88% for growth and 31.12% for value [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated at 0.44, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.35, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.98 [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating potential for absolute and relative returns in the short, medium, and long term [2][3]. Core Insights - The M1 growth rate has rebounded, signaling economic vitality, although it remains below seasonal norms. The increase in M1 is primarily attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [1][2]. - Credit growth in May was 0.62 trillion, which is lower than the seasonal average, but the real credit demand appears stable as indicated by the increase in non-bill financing [1][2]. - The fiscal strength indicator has shown a significant decline, suggesting a need to monitor the sustainability of fiscal efforts moving forward [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - M1 growth increased by 0.8 percentage points, with a monthly decrease of 0.23 trillion in May 2025, compared to a net decrease of 1.08 trillion in May 2024 [1]. - Total credit increased by 0.62 trillion in May 2025, lower than the 0.95 trillion in May 2024 and 1.36 trillion in May 2023, indicating that credit growth has not yet returned to seasonal levels [1]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that while M1 and credit indicators show no further weakening in economic vitality, they have not yet returned to normal seasonal levels. Future attention should be given to the sustainability of fiscal efforts and the liquidity effects following large bank capital injections [2]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from structural optimization and increased fiscal support directed towards social welfare areas, which could enhance both short-term demand and long-term supply [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment approach across state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, focusing on those with superior free cash flow valuations [3]. - It highlights that high-dividend banks are likely to outperform in relative returns due to their defensive advantages amid external uncertainties [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 15 日 海外大厂指引 AI 需求旺盛，国内存储等行业延续复苏态势 半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 英伟达 FY26Q1 营收超指引，博通营收创单季新高，并指引 25Q3 收入同比持 续高增，AI 景气持续旺盛带动算力芯片需求，国内海光信息整合中科曙光预计 将完善供应链体系；国内存储/模拟/材料/MCU 等细分领域景气度持续回暖， DDR4 等受益于海外大厂退出而价格涨幅较好。建议关注 H20 芯片被禁后的国 产算力芯片、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块、 受益于先进制程扩产和国产替代进程的代工/设备/零部件等板块，同时建议关注 各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 ❑ 5 月 A 股半导体指数跑输中国台湾半导体指数及费城半导体指数。5 月，半 导体（SW）行业指数-6.23%，同期电子（SW）行业指数-2.85%，费城半导 体指数/中国台湾半导体指数+12.48%/+5.43%。 ❑ 行业景气跟踪：部分消费类领域边际转暖，工业类需求整体复苏仍然乏力。 1、需求端：部分消费电子行业需求复苏，AI/汽车等驱动端侧应用创 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of -0.7% from June 8 to June 14, with various companies committing to a supplier payment period not exceeding 60 days [1][24]. - Tesla's Robotaxi service is set to launch on June 22, with plans for the first fully autonomous vehicle delivery on June 28 [1][27]. - The report highlights significant collaborations, such as GAC Toyota's partnership with Xiaomi and Huawei to enhance smart vehicle technology [25]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was -0.7%, while the broader market indices showed slight declines: Shanghai A-share index at -0.2% and Shenzhen A-share index at -0.3% [2][9]. - Among automotive sub-sectors, commercial vehicles saw a notable increase of +7.2%, while passenger vehicles and auto parts experienced declines of -2.0% and -1.6%, respectively [11][2]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Jiuling Technology (+55.0%), Meichen Technology (+41.0%), and Tongxin Transmission (+35.3%) [3][14]. - Conversely, stocks such as Chaojie Co. (-23.2%), Niutai Ge (-11.7%), and Zhongma Transmission (-10.7%) faced significant declines [3][14]. Recent Industry Developments - 17 automotive companies have pledged to limit supplier payment terms to 60 days, including major players like BYD and Geely [24]. - GAC Group has committed to completing dealer rebate payments within two months to support dealer stability [24]. - Chery is on track to become the first Chinese automaker to export over 5 million vehicles [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and JAC Motors [8]. - For commercial vehicles, it suggests investing in Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and Weichai Power [8]. - In the auto parts sector, it highlights companies with cost and product advantages, recommending Fuyao Glass and Top Group among others [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [2]. Core Insights - The launch of Doubao Model 1.6 significantly enhances performance while reducing costs to one-third of the previous model, making it a key focus for the AI Agent industry [1][9]. - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, which is expected to catalyze the development of the stablecoin ecosystem [22]. - The GENIUS Act is anticipated to pass in the Senate this month, potentially expanding the stablecoin market significantly [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Volcano Engine Force Conference Review - The conference held on June 11-12, 2025, introduced Doubao Model 1.6 and other models, showcasing a 137-fold increase in daily token usage since its previous release [9][20]. - Doubao Model 1.6 features a unified pricing model and superior capabilities, achieving top-tier scores in various assessments [10][14]. 2. Focus on Stablecoin Catalysts - The implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong is a milestone for the sustainable development of the digital asset ecosystem [22]. - Ant Group plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, aiming to enhance its global financial management capabilities [22]. - The stablecoin market is projected to grow from $247 billion to $2 trillion by 2028 if the GENIUS Act is approved [23][24]. 3. Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a decline of 2.52% in the second week of June 2025, with notable stock performances from various companies [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company, Ousheng Electric, is a leading player in the air power equipment sector, focusing on air compressors and expanding into pneumatic tools and cleaning devices. The company has established a strong presence in the U.S. market over the past 15 years and is transitioning from an OEM to a solution provider [4][14]. - Revenue growth is expected to rebound significantly in 2024, with a projected increase of 45%, reaching 1.8 billion RMB, driven by new product categories and a recovery in inventory levels in the U.S. tool industry [4][27]. - The company has a robust competitive edge through established relationships with major retailers like Walmart and Lowe's, and it is enhancing its product offerings with high-margin products [4][51]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ousheng Electric specializes in air power equipment, including air compressors and wet/dry vacuum cleaners, and is also venturing into smart care robots. The company has developed core technologies since its establishment in 2009 and has seen significant growth in sales to major U.S. retailers since 2015 [4][14][19]. Revenue Performance - The company experienced a doubling of revenue before 2021, reaching 1.3 billion RMB. However, revenue stagnated in 2022-2023 due to high inventory levels in the U.S. tool industry. A recovery is anticipated in 2024, with revenue expected to grow by 45% [4][27]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin is projected to recover from 2022 to 2024, primarily due to a shift towards higher-margin products and a decrease in raw material costs. The gross margins for vacuum cleaners and air compressors are approximately 40% and 25%, respectively, with net profit margins expected to rise from 8.8% in 2021 to 14% in 2024 [4][30]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Ousheng Electric is a leader in the North American air compressor market, with a strong focus on pneumatic tools. The company benefits from established relationships with major retailers and a commitment to R&D, with a research expense ratio of around 5% [4][51]. Product Categories and Growth Potential - The company has seen rapid growth in its wet/dry vacuum cleaner segment, with a significant portion of sales coming from brand authorization agreements. The revenue from this segment is expected to exceed 900 million RMB in 2024, accounting for over half of total revenue [4][27]. - The service robot segment is also poised for growth, with the market for elderly care robots in China projected to grow at a CAGR of around 15% over the next five years [4][30]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth of 41%, 27%, and 27% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 346 million RMB in 2025 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [4][8] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 revenue was HKD 89.66 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 5.92 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year. The company plans to pay a dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, with a payout ratio of 87.8% [2][8] - The company is expected to see net profit growth of 20%, 15%, and 12% for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with projected net profits of HKD 7.09 billion, HKD 8.17 billion, and HKD 9.15 billion [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Chow Tai Fook's FY25 revenue breakdown shows mainland China revenue at HKD 74.56 billion, down 16.9%, while Hong Kong and Macau revenue was HKD 15.10 billion, down 20.6%. Same-store sales in mainland China decreased by 19.4% [2][3] - The company's gross margin improved to 29.5%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of fixed-price gold products [8][12] Store Operations - As of the end of FY25, Chow Tai Fook had a total of 6,423 stores, with a net closure of 892 stores during the year. The company continues to focus on improving operational quality by closing underperforming stores [3][8] Market Outlook - The report indicates that retail sales and same-store sales have shown signs of improvement in April and May 2025, with overall retail value down 1.7% and same-store sales in mainland China down 2.7% [8][12] - The company is expected to continue its strategy of opening new flagship stores in key markets like Hong Kong and Shenzhen to enhance brand influence [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a sales transformation focused on academic marketing, which, despite short-term performance pressures, is expected to enhance the overall marketing system [7]. - The value of the company's R&D pipeline is becoming evident, with multiple products in traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, and biological drugs entering clinical trials or receiving approvals [7]. - The acquisition of China New Medicine in 2024 enhances the company's R&D capabilities in the biopharmaceutical sector, particularly in metabolic and neurological diseases [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 4,868 million, with a projected decline to 3,898 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 4,314 million in 2025 [2][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 537 million in 2023 to 392 million in 2024, before rebounding to 443 million in 2025 [8][10]. - The company’s R&D expenditure is projected to be 6.38 billion in 2024, representing a 16.4% R&D expense ratio, which is among the highest in the traditional Chinese medicine industry [7]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has initiated an academic marketing model transformation, which includes the "Doctor Pan Project" aimed at enhancing compliance in sales operations [7]. - A refined sales strategy is being implemented, focusing on product characteristics and therapeutic areas, with a notable reduction in sales expenses by 20.7% in 2024 [7]. R&D Pipeline - As of Q1 2025, the company has several products in various stages of development, including 4 innovative traditional Chinese medicine drugs and 4 chemical drugs in clinical trials [7]. - The company has received clinical approval for two of its self-developed biological drugs in 2024, targeting multiple myeloma and psoriasis [7]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.4 billion, 5.3 billion, and 6.3 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.0%, 20.2%, and 18.4% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the company post-listing due to its leading position in the smart imaging device sector and potential for growth [10]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Yingshi Innovation (688775.SH), is a global leader in panoramic cameras, expanding its product line into action cameras, gimbals, and wearable cameras, with a strong technological foundation in flight control and software services [2][7]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 55.74 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 66.2% from 2017 to 2024 [24]. - The smart imaging device market is rapidly expanding, with the global panoramic camera market expected to grow from 5 billion in 2023 to 7.9 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 11.8% [8]. Company Analysis - Yingshi Innovation has a diverse product portfolio, with 85.9% of its 2024 revenue coming from consumer-grade smart imaging devices, including panoramic and action cameras [17]. - The company maintains a strong R&D focus, with over 10% of its revenue allocated to R&D, leading to the development of innovative products and technologies [8][39]. - The company has established a robust sales channel, combining online and offline strategies, with significant revenue contributions from international markets, particularly the US, Europe, and Japan [19][24]. Industry Analysis - The smart imaging device industry benefits from advancements in digital technology, panoramic technology, and AI, leading to increased market demand [8]. - The global market for action cameras is projected to grow from 31.4 billion in 2023 to 51.4 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 13.1% [8]. - Major competitors in the smart imaging device market include Yingshi, DJI, and GoPro, with Yingshi holding over 60% market share in the panoramic camera segment [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and gaming sectors, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery in the gaming segment and recommending leading companies in these industries [1][2]. Core Insights - The media industry has seen a 2.52% increase in the past week, ranking 7th among all sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 7.98%, placing it 5th overall [1][10]. - The report emphasizes that gaming and media are among the best emerging consumer sectors, driven by user engagement and cultural exports, which are expected to gain higher valuations [1]. - The report notes that the overseas cultural export of Chinese media is just beginning, supported by favorable policies, and highlights the potential for higher user numbers and ARPU values in international markets [1]. - The report also points out that AI applications are gaining traction in the overseas market, which may reflect similar trends in the domestic market over time [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media sector index increased by 2.52% from June 2 to June 8, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index [10]. - Notable individual stock performances include Gohua Cable (+16.39%) and Hubei Broadcasting (+15.49%) [12]. Gaming Sector Highlights - The gaming company Xindong has seen significant stock price increases, with its game "Xianjing Chuanqi M" topping the iOS charts shortly after launch [2]. - The company has a strong pipeline of self-developed games, including "Ise" and "Xindong Town," which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2]. Media and Entertainment Data - The top-grossing films in the week included "Mission: Impossible 8" and "Time's Son," with box office earnings of 154.47 million and 57.87 million respectively [17][18]. - The television drama "Shaohua Ruojin" achieved the highest ratings among provincial satellite channels, with a viewership rating of 2.055% [22]. Book Publishing Insights - The top-selling fictional books in April 2025 included "Nezha: The Three Realms" and "The Ordinary World," indicating strong consumer interest in local literature [33].