证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 出版&影视板块一季报超预期，易点天下 AI 应用收入落地 传媒互联网行业周报 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 近期我们继续坚定推荐各个细分行业龙头公司，我们继续坚定看好【神州泰岳】 【南方传媒】【分众传媒】【完美世界】【恺英网络】【巨人网络】【腾讯控 股】【昆仑万维】【中国科传】【芒果超媒】【哔哩哔哩】【中文在线】等 ❑ 过去的一周，传媒行业上涨了 0.14%，在所有行业中排名第 22 位，传媒板块 年初至今上涨了 0.30%，排名所有板块第 9 名。近期，传媒板块走势相对稳 定，大家的重心都是聚焦在传媒公司的一季报上，其中出版，影视以及一部 分游戏营销公司的业绩都是超出市场预期，特别是出版行业，近期我们强推 的南方传媒，凤凰传媒，中南传媒，长江传媒走势都稳健向上，出版行业的 反弹也是在预期之内，出版行业参照 2018 年很多出版公司包括凤凰传媒等创 下阶段新高，出版行业的教材教辅业务基本是最稳定的现金流业务，而且大 多数出版公司的估值都是 10 倍左右，股息率也在 4%左右，特别像中原传媒 一季报也出现了高增长和提高分红，出版行业我们继续坚定看好。同 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒企稳，威士忌扬帆起航 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2024 年度报告，24 年实现收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润 30.5/7.2/6.7 亿元，同比-6.6%/-11.2%/-13.6%，强爽销售承压，清爽增速显著。 结构改善叠加成本红利带动毛利率提升，围绕重点产品加大市场推广力度。 25Q1 预调鸡尾酒业务环比企稳，威士忌新品开始铺货。预计 25-27 年 EPS 为 0.78、0.89、1.03 元，当前股价对应 25 年 34 倍 PE，上调至"强烈推荐"评 级。 ❑ 风险提示：新品推广不及预期，行业竞争阶段性加剧，原材料成本上涨。 强烈推荐（上调） 目标估值： 当前股价：26.33 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1049 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 718 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 27.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 18.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 4.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 15.0 | | 资产负债率 | 41.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of -25.94% and -27.61% respectively, but profit margins remained relatively stable [1][3] - The company is expected to continue its reform efforts, which are anticipated to accelerate, alongside increased mergers and acquisitions and channel expansion, leading to steady revenue growth [1][3] - The main product line, 美味鲜, is projected to benefit from cost reductions and the recovery of minority stakes, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.101 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million, reflecting declines of 25.81% and 24.24% year-on-year respectively [3][4] - The gross margin improved to 38.73%, up 1.75 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [3][4] - The company added 118 new distributors in Q1 2025, continuing its strategy of expanding market coverage and penetration [3][4] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 5.139 billion in 2023 to 6.862 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [4][12] - The net profit is expected to recover from 893 million in 2024 to 1.120 billion by 2027, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [4][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.14 in 2024 to 1.43 by 2027, reflecting positive growth trends [4][12]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 农业银行（601288.SH） 如何理解农行其他非息逆势高增？ 农业银行披露 2025 年一季度报，25Q1 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增速 分别为+0.4%、-0.3%、+2.2%，营收利润均保持正增长。（更多图表见正文） 1、营收利润为何能正增长？上市中大型银行中，一季度营收利润双正增长的银 行不多，农行作为国有大行，营收利润增速延续正增长是难得的表现，核心得 益于其他非息逆势高增长继续对业绩形成正贡献。 2、其他非息逆势为何逆势高增长？一季度债市调整，银行业其他非息普遍承压， 不少银行明显负增长，对营收业绩形成拖累。但是农行其他非息增速不降反升， 25Q1 其他非息增速 45.3%，较 24 年全年增速进一步上行。债市调整情况下， 其他非息逆势高增说明农行可能在一季度利率低点时进行了兑现，一方面实现 了 OCI 浮盈进入投资收益，另一方面减少了债市调整导致的浮亏幅度。24 年末 农行 TPL 投资（以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益）余额 0.51 万亿元， OCI 投资（以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益）余额 3.43 万亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in liability volume and pricing, with a positive growth rate in fee income [2] - The net interest margin decline has narrowed, primarily due to improved liability costs [2] - The company is expected to leverage its wealth management and investment banking advantages in a more active capital market [3] Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.58%, 4.35%, and 2.22% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2] - The company experienced a recovery in fee income growth, which turned positive at 9.38% after a significant decline in the previous year [2] Non-Interest Income - The company reported a 21.5% year-on-year decline in other non-interest income for Q1 2025, impacted by market interest rate adjustments and high base effects [3] - Fee income growth rebounded significantly from a decline of 9.88% in the previous year to a growth of 9.38% in Q1 2025 [30] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.08% in Q1 2025, slightly up from the previous quarter [2] - The provision coverage ratio was 233.42%, down 4.36 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating stable asset quality [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 214.974 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [4] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 80.092 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.7% [4] - The current stock price is 21.02 yuan, with a target valuation based on the company's financial performance [5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 曼卡龙（300945.SZ） 业绩增速亮眼，全渠道协同发挥差异化优势 消费品/轻工纺服 公司 24 年及 25Q1 业绩取得亮眼增长，24 年营收+23%、归母净利润+20%， 25Q1 营收+43%、归母净利润+34%。线上线下全渠道协同，25Q1 线上+61%、 线下+33%，展现了公司差异化品牌定位、个性化产品设计、数字化管理经营的 核心优势。同时在良好的费用管控下，公司盈利能力有望稳中向好。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.26 亿元、1.58 亿元、1.88 亿元，同比增速 分别为 31%、25%、19%，对应 25PE30X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 ❑ 受产品及渠道结构影响毛利率有所下滑，费用控制较好，盈利能力稳中向好。 1）2024 年毛利率 13.38%（-1.26pct），主要受产品结构变化及低毛利电商 渠道占比提升影响。分产品看，素金饰品毛利率 12.37%（+0.43pct），镶嵌 饰品毛利率 37.10%（-11.73pct）；分渠道看，直营店 31.06%（+2.32pct）、 专柜 23.77%（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company shows strong performance with a projected revenue growth of 33% and a net profit growth of 32% for 2024, continuing into Q1 2025 with revenue growth of 28% and net profit growth of 22% [1][2]. - The dual-brand strategy, featuring the main brand Marubi and the PL brand Lianhuo, is driving growth, with significant contributions from key products like the Marubi Eye Cream and the Golden Needle series [1][3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 445 million, 549 million, and 643 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 23%, and 17% [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, up 31.69% [2][9]. - The main brand Marubi generated revenue of 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 31.69%, while the PL brand Lianhuo achieved 905 million yuan, a growth of 40.72% [3][9]. - The company's gross margin improved to 73.70% in 2024, up by 3.01 percentage points, attributed to product structure optimization and cost control [7][12]. Product and Channel Analysis - The company’s product categories showed strong performance, with eye care products generating 689 million yuan in revenue, a 60.78% increase, and skincare products reaching 1.13 billion yuan, up 21.60% [3][9]. - Online sales channels contributed significantly, with revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 35.77%, while offline channels saw a 20.79% increase to 427 million yuan [3][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a stable cash flow and a focus on product innovation, which is anticipated to contribute to incremental growth [8][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.11 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 39.3 [9][12].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 龙迅股份（688486.SH） 25Q1 营收同比微增，关注产能供应改善进度 TMT 及中小盘/电子 龙迅股份主营高清视频桥接及处理芯片和高速信号传输芯片，产品应用于 PC 及周边、显示器及商显、视频会议系统、AR/VR 等领域，未来大力布局汽车、 HPC 等领域。龙迅股份发布 2025 年一季报，结合公告信息，点评如下： ❑ 风险提示：公司业绩波动风险、半导体行业周期波动风险、市场竞争加剧风 险、宏观政策变动风险、技术迭代风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 323 | 466 | 693 | 998 | 1310 | | 同比增长 | 34% | 44% | 49% | 44% | 31% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 103 | 149 | 208 | 295 | 391 | | 同比增长 | 48% | 45% | 40% | 42% | 33% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The recent price increases of H acid and reactive dyes are primarily driven by a fire incident at a leading H acid producer, which significantly impacts supply [2][3]. - The domestic H acid industry is experiencing capacity clearance, and the fire incident is expected to accelerate the price increase process [3]. - There is strong overseas demand for H acid, which is contributing to the tightening supply-demand situation domestically [4]. - The reactive dye industry has a high concentration, with strong price increase intentions among companies due to the lack of new capacity [5]. - The price increases for H acid and reactive dyes have just begun, indicating substantial room for further price growth [6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 29, the price of reactive dyes reached 22,000 CNY/ton, up 2,000 CNY/ton (+10%) from the previous day, while H acid was priced at 40,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 500 CNY/ton, totaling a rise of 4,000 CNY/ton (+11%) since mid-April [1]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The fire incident at a major H acid producer, which had a capacity of 20,000 tons/year and accounted for 25% of last year's domestic production, is expected to have a significant impact on supply [2]. - The H acid market has seen a gradual price increase since August 2023, and the recent fire incident is likely to further accelerate this trend [3]. Market Demand - In 2024, China's H acid production is projected to be 76,700 tons, with exports expected to reach 20,500 tons, representing 26.7% of domestic production. The export volume for the first quarter of 2025 has already increased by 54% year-on-year [4]. Industry Structure - The reactive dye industry has a high concentration with the top five companies holding a 76% market share. The lack of new capacity in recent years has led to a bottoming out of prices, which are now expected to rise due to increased costs from H acid [5]. Future Outlook - Historical data shows that H acid prices previously surged to 160,000-170,000 CNY/ton in 2014 due to similar supply constraints, suggesting that current price increases may have significant upside potential [6]. - The report recommends focusing on RunTu Co., which has a capacity of 80,000 tons for reactive dyes and 20,000 tons for H acid, positioning it as a key beneficiary of the price increases in the H acid-reactive dye supply chain [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a revenue of 16.93 billion and a net profit of 0.772 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.4% and 800.2% respectively [6] - The focus on consumer electronics and new energy components has driven recovery in profitability, with the company actively pursuing new projects in AI robotics and smart equipment [6][12] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues of 19.81 billion, 22.79 billion, and 26.20 billion respectively, alongside net profits of 0.878 billion, 1.207 billion, and 1.429 billion [12][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 16.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, and a net profit of 0.772 billion, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 18.5%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 5.0%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.40 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, with a net profit of 0.170 billion, down 43.4% year-on-year due to previous gains from equity disposals [6] Business Segments - The consumer electronics segment generated 11.69 billion in revenue, up 15.4% year-on-year, while the new energy segment saw revenue of 5.21 billion, a 47.3% increase [6] - The robotics and smart equipment segment reported a decline in revenue to 0.03 billion, primarily due to equity dilution from a subsidiary [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics and new energy sectors, with management optimization likely to enhance profitability [6] - The collaboration with key clients in the robotics sector is anticipated to provide significant growth opportunities, positioning the company as a potential assembler of robotic components [6][12]