Core Insights - The report suggests a high probability of an upward breakout in the market, leading to a cross-year rally, particularly due to anticipated positive economic policy adjustments from the upcoming political meetings [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of December as a strategic month for investment, with increased demand for equity funds expected due to the influx of new insurance premiums and favorable currency conditions [2][3] - The report identifies three main investment directions: infrastructure and real estate, service consumption, and self-sufficiency, with a focus on policy-driven adjustments [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a "golden stock" combination including companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology [2][4] - Specific insights into Luxshare Precision highlight its strong position in the Apple supply chain and its potential for robust growth across various sectors, including automotive [8][9] - Shengyi Technology is noted for its leading position in the CCL market, with expectations for continued high-end product upgrades and significant growth potential [12][13] - Century Huatong is recognized for its innovative gaming strategies and strong market position, particularly with its successful game releases [17] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to benefit from increasing overseas demand for optical modules, with a strong production capacity [17] - Haiguang Information is expected to see growth in its DCU chip business due to domestic project implementations [24] - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its prudent management and strong asset quality, with expectations for recovery in performance as economic conditions improve [24] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand and a strong competitive position in the market [24] - Zijin Mining is anticipated to benefit from favorable commodity price trends, particularly in gold and copper [24] - Xingye Silver Tin is positioned as a leading silver producer with significant growth potential [20] - XGIMI Technology is expected to see revenue growth driven by market recovery and product innovation [20] Earnings Forecasts - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology are projected to achieve over 30% stable growth in earnings this year [5] Financial Metrics - Luxshare Precision is projected to have an EPS of 1.85 in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 22.03% [6] - Shengyi Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2024 to 2.03 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 49.37% in 2024 [7] - Century Huatong's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.16 in 2024 to 1.11 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 131.51% in 2024 [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see significant growth in EPS from 4.61 in 2024 to 17.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 137.93% in 2024 [7] - Haiguang Information's EPS is projected to grow from 0.83 in 2024 to 2.01 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 52.87% in 2024 [7] - Alibaba's EPS is expected to rise from 3.91 in 2024 to 5.82 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 9.93% in 2024 [7] - Zijin Mining's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 51.76% in 2024 [7] - Xingye Silver Tin's EPS is projected to grow from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.39 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 57.82% in 2024 [7] - XGIMI Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 1.72 in 2024 to 5.20 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of -0.3% in 2024 [7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 30 日 全球流动性回暖，但国内风险偏好回升或仍在蓄力 定期报告 ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续对后市维持震荡走势的判断，虽然外部流动性风险下 降带动全球风险偏好回升，但 A 股量能持续收缩叠加基本面数据未见好转， 国内风险偏好回升或仍处蓄力过程中。具体来看：一是交易维度信号偏弱， 目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均 给出偏向谨慎信号。即当前存量资金博弈期间，市场交易主线较为缺乏，不 论是科技方向还是红利方向，均未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度并未好 转，11 月 PMI 录得 49.20，为季节性偏弱水平（过去 10 年同月仅强于 2022 年），叠加社融增速见顶、CPI 数据未见好转，当前基本面"需求相对疲 弱、中上游价格修复"的结构性复苏局面较为明显，或不足以支撑权益市场 全面趋势上行。三是全球流动性危机警报或暂时解除，对 A 股利空影响减 弱。目前 CME"美联储观察"对 12 月美联储降息概率的预测达到 86.40%， 叠加美元持续走弱、美股小盘股短期领涨、贵金属与加密货币短期显著反弹 的现象，我们认为全球流 ...

Domestic Policy Topics: Establishment of Commercial Space Administration, Focus on Price Governance and Energy Storage - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration aims to address the overlapping functions and decentralized management of multiple departments in the commercial space sector, marking a key step towards standardized and scaled regulation [4][7][8] - The recent policy developments include the issuance of a development plan for commercial space, which outlines 22 key measures across five areas, such as encouraging the layout of the space industry chain and supporting the development of new technologies and products [4][10][12] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively working to address issues of disorderly price competition in various industries, emphasizing the need for a standardized approach to maintain market order and support high-quality development [16][20] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held discussions with manufacturers in the energy storage and power battery sectors to promote high-quality development and address competitive order within the industry [17][20] Overseas Policy Topics: US-China Presidential Call, Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Issue - A recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump highlighted the importance of stabilizing US-China relations and discussed key issues such as Taiwan and the Ukraine crisis [4][9] - The ongoing developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation include significant negotiations between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, with discussions on potential agreements to end the conflict [4][9] Consumer Supply and Demand Adaptation Policy Issuance - The implementation plan issued by six departments aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the optimization of supply structures and the establishment of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [21][25] - The plan emphasizes the importance of aligning consumption upgrades with industrial upgrades, promoting new technologies and models, and expanding the supply of high-quality consumer goods [21][24] - A total of 22 consumer promotion policies have been introduced this year, with a significant focus on fiscal subsidies, particularly for vulnerable groups and sectors [23][27]

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) with a target price of HKD 141.90, while the current stock price is HKD 102.5 [3]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial performance showed revenue of HKD 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but operating profit was negative at HKD -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%. Adjusted net profit was also negative at HKD -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1][6]. - Despite the intense competition in the food delivery sector, Meituan's long-term business barriers and growth potential remain strong, with overseas operations providing new growth opportunities [1][6]. - The report highlights that the core local business segment generated revenue of HKD 67.45 billion, down 2.8%, while new business revenue was HKD 28.04 billion, up 15.9% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for Meituan is expected to grow from HKD 276.85 billion in 2023 to HKD 482.81 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be negative at HKD -15.46 billion in 2025, but is expected to recover to HKD 45.63 billion by 2027 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) for new businesses, which is expected to be -4.6% in Q3 2025, showing a reduction in losses [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Meituan maintains a leading market share in high-value orders despite the competitive pressures in the food delivery market, with expectations for a more rational competitive environment in Q4 [6]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-value users and orders, which positions it favorably against competitors [6]. - The performance of the flash purchase segment is projected to grow by approximately 30% in Q3 2025, although it still faces negative operating profit margins [6]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of Meituan is HKD 626.4 billion, with major shareholders holding a 9.05% stake [3].

Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and internet industry, particularly highlighting leading companies such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1][2]. Core Insights - The media sector has experienced a decline of 1.39% in the past week, ranking third among all industries, while it has risen by 26.42% year-to-date, placing sixth overall. Despite recent market adjustments, the AI application segment within the media sector has shown strong performance, indicating significant future investment opportunities [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications across various fields, including gaming, music, healthcare, and finance, suggesting that 2026 will present substantial investment opportunities in this area [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media industry index decreased by 1.39% from November 17 to November 23, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90% during the same period [9]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Xuan Ya International (33.64%) and Fu Shi Holdings (32.12%), while others like Caesar Culture and Guangdian Network faced declines [12][14]. Film and Television Industry Data - The top films by box office for the week included "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with a weekly box office of 190.63 million and "Nowhere to Run" with 117.09 million [16][17]. - Upcoming films such as "Zootopia 2" are expected to generate significant interest, with over 2.28 million people marking it as a film they want to see [18]. Television Series Ratings - The top-rated television series included "Why He Is Still Single" on Shanghai Oriental TV with a rating of 1.571% and "Tang Dynasty Mystery" on Beijing TV with a rating of 1.367% [21][22]. - Online series such as "Tang Dynasty Mystery" and "He Is Still Single" ranked highest in viewership indices [25][26]. Game Sector Insights - Tencent dominated the iOS game sales chart with six titles, including "Teamfight Tactics" at the top [32][34]. - The Android game rankings also featured Tencent's "Delta Force" among the top titles [34]. Book Sector Highlights - The top-selling fiction books included "Red Rock" and "The Right Side of the River," while non-fiction bestsellers featured titles like "The Lazy Economy" [35][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" due to positive fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [2][10]. Core Insights - The upcoming release of major overseas IP films is expected to create a strong box office boost, with titles like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" anticipated to exceed box office expectations [1][6]. - The film industry is experiencing a revival, with Q4 box office projected to surpass the same period last year, driven by the release of high-profile films and advancements in AI-generated video technology [1][6][7]. - AI advancements, particularly OpenAI's Sora2 model, are revolutionizing content production, enabling more efficient and cost-effective filmmaking processes, which is expected to reshape the industry landscape [6][7]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 160 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2021.1 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1856.4 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.6%, 21.3%, and 24.7% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [4]. Upcoming Releases - Major films scheduled for release include "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" on November 14, 2025, "Nowhere to Hide" and "The Meaning of Being Nameless" on December 31, 2025, and "Avatar: Fire and Ash" on December 19, 2025 [8]. - "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" has already achieved a global box office of 7.02 billion USD, while "Zootopia 2" has a pre-sale box office exceeding 1.8 billion [6][8]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch include China Film, Shanghai Film, and major cinema chains like Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, and Huanxi Media, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming film releases and the overall box office recovery [1][6][7]. - The ticketing platform Maoyan Entertainment is also highlighted for its market share advantage, which is likely to result in significant revenue growth as the box office rebounds [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its long-term operational potential [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has deepened its focus on the power supply industry for nearly 30 years, specializing in high-efficiency and high-reliability power supply markets. It has established a solid foundation in the telecommunications sector and is now increasing investments in data center power supply as a strategic business [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve new growth in the AIDC power supply market, with potential strong profitability if it successfully penetrates overseas markets with its new products [1][7]. - The company has a robust research and development (R&D) capability, with R&D expense ratios significantly increasing in recent years due to investments in new fields, which is expected to improve operational performance in the future [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 1,467 million yuan in 2023 to 922 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1,729 million yuan in 2026 and 2,327 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37% in 2025 and 35% in 2027 [2][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -501 million yuan in 2024, improving to 132 million yuan in 2026 and 353 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of -25.9 in 2024 and 36.8 in 2027 [2][24]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 13 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 10.8 billion yuan [3]. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of high-reliability and high-power density power products, with applications in critical sectors such as telecommunications, aerospace, military, and railways [7][11]. - The company has a diversified product range, including modular power supplies, customized power supplies, and high-power power supply systems, catering to various industries [17][19]. Growth Opportunities - The rapid development of AI is expected to create significant demand for power supply solutions, presenting opportunities for the company to enter overseas supply chains [7][29]. - The company has a strong customer base and has established long-term partnerships with major domestic and international clients, enhancing its market position [35][36]. - The company is strategically investing in AIDC power supply business, which is anticipated to yield breakthroughs in the near future [37][38]. Recent Developments - The company has implemented a new round of employee stock ownership plans and incentive programs aimed at enhancing team motivation and performance [41][42]. - The company has seen initial success in converting R&D efforts into revenue, with a significant increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, marking a turning point in its financial performance [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for several companies, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [2][53]. Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing a significant decline in pig prices due to an oversupply and seasonal demand weakness, leading to increased losses in the sector [6][10]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is rapidly decreasing, with a notable reduction of 1.1% in October, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in the future [10][14]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a 30% year-on-year growth in October, driven by the release of production capacity from leading companies [10][33]. - The report suggests that the cash flow for low-cost pig farming companies is expected to improve significantly, enhancing their intrinsic value [10][53]. Summary by Sections Industry Losses and Production Capacity - The report notes that pig prices have declined significantly, with the national average price at 11.6 yuan/kg in October, down 34% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [10][14]. - The losses in pig farming have expanded, with self-breeding and purchased piglets showing average losses of 155 yuan and 281 yuan per head, respectively [10][14]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is in a rapid decline, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024 [10][14]. Slaughter and Weight Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with 17.52 million pigs processed in October, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [10][33]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased, with the average weight recorded at 121 kg, down 1.9% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month [10][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong cost advantages and performance reliability, recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group as key investment targets [10][53]. - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [10][53].