Domestic Economic Trends - Q3 price stabilization trend has strengthened, with traditional industry prices rebounding in September, and a more pronounced recovery in the new energy sector due to improved downstream demand[1] - Domestic growth stabilization policies are expected to intensify, with concentrated fiscal efforts in Q4, although achieving the annual growth target remains under pressure due to significant economic data declines in July and August[1] International Economic Developments - On September 25, Trump announced tariffs on heavy trucks, kitchen and bathroom materials, furniture, and pharmaceuticals, with some tariffs supported by Section 232 investigations[1] - The US Q2 GDP was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, the highest in nearly two years, and August durable goods orders increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding expectations[1] Asset Market Insights - The domestic policy tone has temporarily shifted back to growth stabilization, potentially leading to a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, with expectations of a short-term buying window for interest rate bonds[1] - The US economic fundamentals show no recession risk, and the recent FOMC has significantly lowered the 2026 rate cut expectations, suggesting that changes in future rate cut expectations are unlikely to negatively impact the market[1] Monetary Liquidity and Market Conditions - The overall funding environment remains tight as the quarter-end and National Day holiday approach, with the benchmark interest rate rising by approximately 1.92 basis points[2] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 1,047.21 billion yuan, reaching 72,679.9995 billion yuan[5] Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds was negative at -3,225.7 billion yuan, with a planned issuance of 107.15 billion yuan for the upcoming week, a significant decrease from 443.58 billion yuan this week[6] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.6589%, reflecting a slight increase of 1.79 basis points compared to the previous week[7]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing high prosperity in certain sectors and the potential for recovery in struggling areas, focusing on industries such as non-ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, automotive, electronics, and media [2][4][5]. Market Performance and Economic Indicators - In the past month, the market experienced slight fluctuations upward, with the overall indices showing mixed results, particularly in the technology TMT sector and midstream manufacturing, which saw improved prosperity [2][4][17]. - Economic data indicated a general slowdown, with production outpacing demand, and various sectors showing different levels of performance [4][18]. Sector Recommendations - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions and seasonal demand are expected to drive prices higher, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, as well as small metals such as rare earths [5][16]. - **Power Equipment**: The solid-state battery industry is advancing, and the solar power sector is benefiting from increased demand and improved pricing structures [5][16]. - **Machinery**: The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth due to domestic technological advancements and supportive policies [5][16]. - **Automotive**: The automotive industry is entering a recovery phase with improved supply-demand dynamics and supportive government policies [5][16]. - **Electronics**: The consumer electronics sector is entering a peak season, driven by innovation and strong demand for AI-related products [5][16]. - **Media**: The gaming sector is experiencing structural recovery, supported by content optimization and AI technology [5][16]. Economic and Sectoral Trends - The report notes that the market is entering a bullish phase, with significant sector rotation expected, particularly in technology-driven areas [4][5][7]. - Analysts have raised profit expectations for several industries, including steel, military electronics, and insurance, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [7][12]. Trading Dynamics - Recent trading activity has shown a divergence across sectors, with high turnover in consumer electronics and automotive parts, while sectors like oil and gas have seen lower trading volumes [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy impacts and fundamental recovery in the coming months, particularly in technology innovation as a growth driver [7][12].

Geopolitical Risks - The risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing, with Ukraine continuing attacks on Russian energy facilities and Russia limiting diesel and gasoline exports, leading to a 4.2% increase in Brent crude oil prices and a 3.5% rise in ICE diesel prices this week[4] - European countries are expressing readiness to respond to Russian incursions, but internal divisions may affect their actual response capabilities[4] - Trump's recent statements indicate a shift towards supporting Ukraine, although actual U.S. actions regarding increased aid remain unclear[4] Middle East Developments - Trump assured Arab and Islamic leaders that the U.S. would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, proposing a peace plan for Gaza[4] - Ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza have raised concerns among Arab nations about potential regional conflict escalation[4] U.S. Tariff Policies - Starting October 1, the U.S. will impose new tariffs: 100% on imported brand or patented drugs, 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets, 30% on soft furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks produced outside the U.S.[4] - The Trump administration continues to push for tariffs as a tool for trade negotiations, despite facing judicial challenges regarding the legality of these tariffs[4] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.1%[6] - Brent crude oil prices reached $68.82 per barrel, reflecting a 4.2% increase, while ICE diesel prices hit $714.25 per ton, up 3.5%[6] Future Outlook - Continued monitoring of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is essential, particularly regarding potential dialogue signals from Russia amid U.S. pressure[18] - The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown if a temporary budget is not passed by September 30, 2024[21] - The expiration of the Iran nuclear agreement and UN Resolution 2231 on October 18 will be critical to watch, as it may impact ongoing negotiations[20]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 28 日 维持震荡看多，风格转向大盘 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250928 1. 当前市场观察 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 金融工程 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场继续震荡，大盘成长风格维持强势，价值风格继续走弱。具体来 看，万得全 A 指数上涨约 0.25%，上证 50、沪深 300 分别上涨约 1.09%、 1.09%，中证 1000 则下跌约 0.52%。国证价值下跌约 0.25%，而国证成长上 涨约 2.37%，创业板指、科创 50 分别上涨约 1.97%、6.47%。 ❑ 择时方面，继续看多 A 股，但短期看好程度有所下降。继续看好的核心原因 为当前市场交易情绪仍相对较强、人民币升值背景下内外部流动性宽裕、基 本面上信贷脉冲不弱且消费 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the performance and fund flows of the ETF fund market, different popular sub - type ETF funds, and innovative theme and sub - industry ETF funds in the past week (September 22 - September 26) for investors' reference [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: Most stock ETFs rose this week. A - share TMT ETFs and Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen theme ETFs had the largest increases, with an average increase of 4.39% and 4.28% respectively for funds above a certain scale. Conversely, A - share consumer ETFs and Hong Kong stock dividend ETFs had significant declines, with an average decline of 2.24% and 2.15% respectively for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Fund flow: Funds flowed significantly into A - share TMT ETFs, with a net inflow of 17.889 billion yuan throughout the week. In contrast, A - share small - and - medium - cap ETFs and A - share cyclical ETFs experienced fund outflows, with net outflows of 2.251 billion yuan and 2.023 billion yuan respectively throughout the week [3][9]. - Lists of funds: The report also lists the top - performing funds in terms of recent weekly returns, weekly fund inflows, and weekly fund outflows [11][12][13]. 3.2 Different Popular Sub - type ETF Funds Market Performance The report presents the market performance of various sub - type ETFs, including A - share ETFs (broad - based index, industry, SmartBeta, theme), Hong Kong stock ETFs (broad - based index, industry, SmartBeta, theme), Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen ETFs (industry, theme), US stock ETFs (broad - based index, industry), other QDII - ETFs, bond ETFs, and commodity ETFs, showing their latest scale, weekly fund flow, weekly return, weekly trading volume, recent one - month return, and year - to - date return [15][30][37]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Sub - industry ETF Funds Market Performance The report shows the market performance of highly - concerned innovative theme and sub - industry ETF funds, including TMT innovation themes, consumption sub - industries, pharmaceutical sub - industries, new energy themes, central and state - owned enterprise themes, stable - growth themes, Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen/Hong Kong Stock Connect sub - industries, dividend/dividend low - volatility index families, and ChiNext index families, presenting their index abbreviations, weekly returns, year - to - date returns, fund codes, representative fund abbreviations, weekly returns, and latest scale [46][47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the intertwined nature of money and banking, stating that modern banks and credit money emerged simultaneously, with banks generating interest income through money creation and service fees from money circulation [5][10] - It discusses the evolution of financial regulation, highlighting the tightening of financial supervision and the reduction of regulatory arbitrage opportunities, which impacts banks' macro credit creation capabilities [5][11] - The report notes the global dominance of the US dollar as a world currency, while also addressing the potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi amid the declining trust in the dollar [5][11] Summary by Sections Introduction: Money and Banking - The report introduces the concept that studying banks necessitates an understanding of money, and vice versa, establishing a foundation for further exploration of banking and monetary systems [10] Evolution of Money - The report outlines the progression from a barter system to the introduction of physical currency, illustrating how complex transactions necessitated a common medium of exchange [12][14][16] Wealth Accumulation and Banking - It describes the transition from wealth storage in physical forms to the establishment of banks, where trust in goldsmiths led to the creation of deposit certificates and the initial forms of banking [18][21] Modern Banking System - The report details the characteristics of the modern banking system, including the role of central banks, reserve requirements, and the impact of regulatory frameworks on banking operations [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks, particularly copper, precious metals, and cobalt, suggesting an adjustment to a buy rating [1]. Core Insights - The copper supply issue has deepened market understanding of metal resource supply and demand dynamics. Despite a significant decline in China's real estate sector in 2023, various non-ferrous metals have shown unexpectedly strong consumption [1]. - The report highlights a notable increase in precious metals, reinforcing the logic of de-dollarization, with central bank gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new material stocks related to technological growth, alongside traditional non-ferrous metals like copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The weekly price of antimony ingots is reported at 175,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.96%. The domestic antimony market is still under pressure from oversupply [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among sectors. Precious metals led with a 5.55% increase, while small metals and new materials saw declines [4]. - The largest weekly gain was observed in cobalt prices, which rose by 12.74% due to surging demand from the battery industry and tightening export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. Copper Market - As of September 25, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 0.88 million tons to 14.89 million tons, down from 15.43 million tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a shift from surplus to a slight deficit in global copper supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced operational setbacks, leading to a significant downward revision of expected copper output for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by strong fundamentals and ongoing supply issues [4]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 617,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking. The report notes a significant increase in aluminum cable exports and a recovery in production rates [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3,761 USD/ounce (+2.1%) and silver at 46.055 USD/ounce (+7.0%). The report attributes this to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Platinum prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 12.2% in the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic data [5]. New Materials and Energy - The report highlights the robust demand for lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate prices showing slight increases. The cobalt market is expected to face a significant supply gap in the coming years due to export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The report also discusses the potential for uranium prices to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a slight overall increase of 0.1% during the week from September 21 to September 27, with notable events including Chery Automobile's successful IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening at HKD 34.20, which is 11% higher than its IPO price of HKD 30.75 [1][26]. - Several new models were launched ahead of the National Day holiday, including the Shangjie H5, which saw over 10,000 pre-orders within the first hour of its release, and the Li Auto i6, priced at CNY 24.98 million with promotional discounts [1][26]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was mixed, with the overall market showing a slight increase. The Shanghai A-share index rose by 0.2%, while the Shenzhen A-share index fell by 0.1% [2][10]. - Within the automotive industry, the motorcycle and other segments showed the most significant increase of 5.0%, while the automotive services and commercial vehicle sectors experienced declines of 5.5% and 2.6%, respectively [2][13]. Individual Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, notable gainers included Xinzhibiao (+25.0%), Kebo Da (+22.6%), and Tiangong Co. (+21.0%). Conversely, significant decliners included Zhongma Transmission (-15.2%), Shanghai Wumao (-14.0%), and Mingxin Xuteng (-13.7%) [3][20][18]. Recent Industry Developments - Key developments included the announcement of a 25% tariff on heavy trucks by the U.S. government, effective October 1, aimed at protecting domestic manufacturers [9][26]. - The report highlights the successful launch of several new models, including the Tengshi N8L SUV, which is positioned as a luxury family vehicle with a starting price of CNY 31.98 million [27][30]. - The report also notes the strategic partnerships and technological advancements in the industry, such as the collaboration between Xpeng Motors and Alibaba Cloud for quantum security technology [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile. It also suggests monitoring key partners of Huawei, including BAIC Blue Valley, Changan Automobile, and SAIC Motor [9][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, highlighting opportunities in undervalued assets with a focus on high dividend yields [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery in the shipping sector, the attractiveness of infrastructure assets with dividend yields above 5%, and the positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2025-2026 [1][17][22]. - It also notes the potential for valuation recovery in the express delivery sector due to easing price competition [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining due to reduced cargo volumes ahead of the National Day holiday. However, shipowners expect price stabilization in late October [10][17]. - Oil tanker rates remain high but are experiencing slight fluctuations, with VLCC rates at $89,000/day, down 6% from the previous week [13][47]. - The dry bulk market shows signs of recovery, with the BDI index rising by 2.5% to 2259 points [16][43]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - The infrastructure sector is highlighted for its stability, with major highways showing a dividend yield of over 5%, making them attractive for investment [18][19]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in truck traffic and stable growth in rail freight, with national rail cargo volume increasing by 0.2% week-on-week [18][50]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain strong growth, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [20][60]. - The report notes a shift towards price stabilization due to "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to improve industry valuations [20]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation industry is experiencing a slight decline in passenger volume due to adverse weather conditions, but ticket prices and load factors remain strong, with domestic ticket prices up 13.2% year-on-year [22][21]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the aviation sector in Q4, driven by low base effects and increased travel demand [22].