Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The average daily signed area for second-hand homes has increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, while the average daily signed area for new homes has decreased by about 2% when adjusted for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday effect [3][4]. - The report highlights that the net rental yield and mortgage rate spread narrowing is a key observation for the total demand for new and second-hand homes to stabilize [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on reasonable valuation ranges for investments, suggesting that the current PB valuation level for the sector is around 1.2 times, while the average PB for the top five sales-focused real estate companies is approximately 0.7 times [5]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The new home signed area has shown a year-on-year increase, with data from September 1 to September 25 indicating a positive trend compared to the same period in previous years [9][13]. - The overall signed area for new homes in sample cities has also exceeded levels from the past four years [13]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home signed area has similarly shown a year-on-year increase, with data from September 1 to September 25 reflecting a positive trend [15][19]. - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has increased, indicating a growing interest in the market [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to August 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 10%, while the average transaction price has increased by 23% [22]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices, indicating a potential cooling in the market [50]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the cycle for unsold new constructions have increased compared to July, suggesting a tightening market [32][35]. - The liquidity outlook shows a tightening trend at the macro level, with a reduction in the proportion of properties with rising listing prices [49][50].

Profit Growth Analysis - In August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was 0.9%, a significant recovery of 2.6 percentage points from July 2025's -1.7%[1] - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises in August 2025 was 2.3%, unchanged from July 2025[1] - The year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in August 2025 was 20.4%, a substantial increase from the previous month's -1.5%[1] Contributing Factors - The profit growth shift from negative to positive was primarily supported by a low base effect from the previous year[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of -2.9%, while the cumulative year-on-year industrial added value growth rate was 6.2%[1] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.58 yuan, an increase of 0.19 yuan year-on-year, indicating rising costs[1] Industry Performance - The upstream mining sector continued to be the largest drag on overall industry profits, with most sectors experiencing negative profit growth except for non-ferrous metal mining[1] - The profit growth rate for the raw materials manufacturing sector improved significantly, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.1%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[1] - The equipment manufacturing sector recorded a cumulative profit growth rate of 7.2%, also contributing 2.5 percentage points to overall profit growth[1] Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to continue rising in the coming month due to an extremely low base of -27.1% from the previous year[1] - Ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to support price improvements in various industries, particularly in raw materials manufacturing[1] - However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream may face obstacles, necessitating policy support for demand recovery[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market, summarizing the performance of major indices and quantitative funds in the past week, the overall performance and distribution of different types of public quantitative funds, and the top - performing quantitative funds this week for investors' reference. During September 22 - 26, 2025, the A - share market continued to fluctuate, quantitative funds showed differentiated performance, and most of the excess returns were negative [1][2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Performance of Major Indices and Quantitative Funds in the Past Week - The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with different performances among indices. The one - week returns of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 1.07%, 0.98%, and - 0.55% respectively [3][6]. - Quantitative funds showed differentiated performance. Active quantitative funds rose by an average of 0.44%. Most of the excess returns were weak. CSI 300 index - enhanced, CSI 500 index - enhanced, and other index - enhanced funds recorded negative excess returns of - 0.22%, - 0.09%, and - 0.09% respectively. Only CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds outperformed the index, with an average excess return of 0.53%. Market - neutral funds fell by an average of 0.27% [4][9]. 2. Performance of Different Types of Public Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 0.85%, 1.58%, 14.41%, 16.51%, 28.39%, and 17.37% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were - 0.22%, - 0.61%, - 0.90%, 0.42%, 0.06%, and 1.73% [13]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 0.89%, 2.65%, 21.40%, 21.92%, 44.92%, and 27.42% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were - 0.09%, - 1.32%, - 2.63%, 0.19%, - 1.71%, and 0.95% [13]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were - 0.01%, - 0.33%, 19.44%, 21.80%, 60.37%, and 31.61% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were 0.53%, 0.72%, 1.04%, 5.03%, 8.59%, and 7.44% [14]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 1.30%, 4.54%, 24.72%, 27.15%, 63.67%, and 34.49% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were - 0.09%, - 0.57%, - 1.72%, 1.46%, 0.58%, and 2.58% [14]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 0.44%, 1.44%, 17.44%, 20.07%, 44.25%, and 26.00% respectively [15]. - **Market - Neutral Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were - 0.27%, - 0.37%, 0.01%, 0.18%, - 0.48%, and 0.59% respectively [15]. 3. Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public Quantitative Funds The report shows the performance trends of different types of public quantitative funds in the past six months, as well as the performance distribution in the past week and one year. Index - enhanced funds show the performance of excess returns [16]. 4. Top - Performing Public Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds such as Huashang 300 Smart Selection, China - Europe CSI 300 Index Enhancement performed well, with different excess returns in different time periods [30]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds like Shenwan Hongyuan CSI 500 Optimal Enhancement, Penghua CSI 500 Index Enhancement had good performance [31]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds including Guolianan CSI 1000 Index Enhancement, Huatai - Peregrine CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF showed excellent performance [32]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds such as China Merchants CSI 2000 Enhanced Strategy ETF, China Merchants SZSE 2000 Index Enhancement performed well [33]. - **Active Quantitative Top - Performing Funds**: Funds like Taikang Semiconductor Quantitative Stock Selection, Jiutai Quantitative Emerging Industries had high returns [34]. - **Market - Neutral Top - Performing Funds**: Funds such as Huatai - Peregrine Absolute Return Strategy, ICBC Absolute Return performed well [35].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Neutral Constraint Maximum Factor Exposure Portfolio **Construction Idea**: The model aims to maximize the exposure of target factors in the portfolio while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures relative to the benchmark index[62][63][64] **Construction Process**: The optimization model is defined as follows: $ \begin{array}{l}\mbox{\it Max}\qquad\quad w^{\prime}\;X_{target}\\ \mbox{\it s.t.}\qquad\quad(w-\;w_{b})^{\prime}X_{ind}=\;0\\ \mbox{\it(w-\;w_{b})}^{\prime}\;X_{Beta}=\;0\\ \mbox{\it|w-\;w_{b}|\leq1\%}\\ \mbox{\it w\geq0}\\ \mbox{\it w^{\prime}B=1}\\ \mbox{\it w^{\prime}1=1}\end{array} $ - **Explanation**: - \( w \): Portfolio weight vector - \( w_b \): Benchmark portfolio weight vector - \( X_{target} \): Factor load matrix for the target factor - \( X_{ind} \): Industry exposure matrix (binary variables) - \( X_{Beta} \): Style factor exposure matrix (e.g., size, valuation, growth) - Constraints ensure neutrality in industry and style exposures, limit deviations from benchmark weights, prohibit short selling, and require full allocation within benchmark constituents[62][63][64] **Evaluation**: The model effectively balances factor exposure maximization with risk control through neutrality constraints[62][63][64] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Volatility Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures the performance of stocks with varying volatility levels[16][17] **Construction Process**: - Volatility Factor = \( \frac{DASTD + CMRA + HSIGMA}{3} \) - **Sub-factor Definitions**: - \( DASTD \): Standard deviation of excess returns over 250 trading days, calculated using a half-life of 40 days - \( CMRA \): Cumulative range of log returns over 12 months - \( HSIGMA \): Standard deviation of residuals from beta regression[16][17] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong differentiation between high and low volatility stocks, with recent data showing low volatility stocks outperforming high volatility stocks[16][17] - **Factor Name**: Growth Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures growth potential based on revenue and earnings trends[16][17] **Construction Process**: - Growth Factor = \( \frac{SGRO + EGRO}{2} \) - **Sub-factor Definitions**: - \( SGRO \): Regression slope of revenue growth over the past five fiscal years, normalized by average revenue - \( EGRO \): Regression slope of earnings growth over the past five fiscal years, normalized by average earnings[16][17] **Evaluation**: Provides insights into companies with strong growth trajectories, though sensitivity to financial reporting quality is noted[16][17] Factor Backtesting Results - **Volatility Factor**: - Recent one-week multi-long-short return: -2.90% - Recent one-month multi-long-short return: -1.53%[19][20] - **Growth Factor**: - Recent one-week multi-long-short return: 0.24% - Recent one-month multi-long-short return: 3.27%[19][20] Index Enhancement Portfolio Performance - **Portfolio Name**: CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - Recent one-week excess return: 2.04% - Recent one-month excess return: 2.76% - Recent one-year excess return: 17.07%[57][58] - **Portfolio Name**: CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio - Recent one-week excess return: 0.03% - Recent one-month excess return: -1.56% - Recent one-year excess return: -8.56%[57][58] - **Portfolio Name**: CSI 800 Enhanced Portfolio - Recent one-week excess return: -0.42% - Recent one-month excess return: -0.26% - Recent one-year excess return: 8.40%[57][58] - **Portfolio Name**: CSI 300 ESG Enhanced Portfolio - Recent one-week excess return: -0.11% - Recent one-month excess return: 0.25% - Recent one-year excess return: 6.90%[57][58] - **Portfolio Name**: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - Recent one-week excess return: -0.71% - Recent one-month excess return: 0.51% - Recent one-year excess return: 10.25%[57][58] Annualized Performance Metrics - **CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized excess return: 15.50% - Information ratio: 2.97[59][60] - **CSI 500 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized excess return: 8.70% - Information ratio: 2.07[59][60] - **CSI 800 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized excess return: 7.11% - Information ratio: 2.18[59][60] - **CSI 300 ESG Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized excess return: 5.64% - Information ratio: 1.75[59][60] - **CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio**: - Annualized excess return: 6.39% - Information ratio: 2.33[59][60]

Domestic Policy Focus - The industry stabilization plans for steel, construction materials, and light industry have been issued, emphasizing capacity regulation compared to previous versions [3][6][8] - The steel industry plan aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added, with a focus on supply-side structural adjustments and strict capacity control measures [9][10] - The construction materials plan prohibits the addition of new cement and flat glass capacity, requiring capacity replacement plans for new and renovated projects [10][11] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The National Drug Procurement Office released the national centralized drug procurement document (GY-YD2025-1), focusing on optimizing procurement rules and reducing drug costs for the public [18] - Changes in the procurement process include stricter qualification standards for bidding companies and modifications to the selection rules to respect clinical choices [18] Overseas Policy Developments - The U.S. Congress delegation visited China, with discussions focusing on Taiwan and military issues [3][6] - The U.S. and U.K. signed a significant technology cooperation agreement during President Trump's visit, addressing core issues such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][6] Weekly Industry Policy Review - Key areas of focus include the rectification of internal competition, new production capabilities, infrastructure, new energy vehicles, media, and biopharmaceuticals [3][6] Other Policies - The third round of inspections by various financial regulatory bodies has been reported, indicating ongoing efforts to improve regulatory compliance and governance [3][6]

银行研思录 19 上市银行"十四五回望"之盈利结构变迁 总量研究/银行 本报告为"十四五"期间银行经营回顾与"十五五"规划展望系列第二篇《盈 利结构变迁》，我们将系统展示对于 42 家 A 股上市银行在"十四五"期间的 ROE 结构拆分以及相对行业优势的变化，以表征各银行板块和单家银行盈利结 构和盈利质量的变迁逻辑、驱动因素与结构性特征，为衔接"十五五"战略布 局提供镜鉴。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 09 月 26 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10527.7 | 10.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9870.5 | 10.4 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.8 3.6 23.4 相对表现 -9.6 -13.2 -11.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 Sep/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《上市银行债市浮盈余额有多少？ —银行研思录 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the gaming sector, specifically recommending companies like Giant Network, Tencent, and others in the industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to benefit significantly from supportive policies and emerging AI applications, with the third-quarter reports anticipated to show strong performance [7]. - Giant Network is highlighted for its steady revenue and profit growth, with new product launches expected to contribute positively in future reporting periods [7]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the gaming industry amidst economic fluctuations, positioning it as a promising area for investment [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The media industry saw a 0.69% increase last week, ranking 10th among all sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 37.23%, placing it 4th overall [11]. - The gaming sector, particularly leading companies like ST Huatuo and Giant Network, reached new highs, prompting recommendations to increase holdings in this area [7]. Company Performance - Giant Network's revenue and profit are steadily increasing, with a significant rise in contract liabilities, indicating growth in deferred revenue from games [7]. - The flagship mobile game "Original Journey" has successfully expanded its user base, achieving over 2 million new users in the first half of the year [7]. - The company is actively integrating AI technologies into its gaming products, enhancing user engagement and gameplay experiences [7]. Market Data - The report notes that the gaming sector's valuation remains attractive, with a strong outlook for international expansion and AI integration [7]. - The gaming industry is characterized as one of the most benefited sectors from current market conditions and policy support [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [1] Core Views - Xiaomi has launched the Xiaomi 17 series, which includes significant upgrades across all models, aiming to compete directly with the iPhone in the high-end market [5] - The company is expanding its IoT product line with new high-end devices, including tablets, TVs, and smart home appliances, enhancing its AIoT ecosystem [5] - Xiaomi's automotive segment is gaining traction, with over 40,000 units of the YU7 model delivered and the introduction of customized services for its vehicles [5] - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth for Xiaomi, projecting total revenues of 489.9 billion, 660.3 billion, and 823.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 43.1 billion, 63.5 billion, and 86.6 billion yuan for the same years [6][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi Group is positioned as one of the top three smartphone manufacturers globally and the largest AIoT smart hardware platform [5] Financial Performance - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, estimating total revenue growth of 34% in 2025 and 35% in 2026, with net profit growth of 66% and 54% respectively [6][9] - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 35.7 for 2025, decreasing to 16.7 by 2027, indicating improving valuation over time [6][10] Product Development - The Xiaomi 17 series features three models with advanced specifications, including the Snapdragon 8 processor and significant battery capacity [5] - The introduction of high-end IoT products, such as the Xiaomi Pad 8 series and the S Pro Mini LED TV, reflects Xiaomi's strategy to enhance its product offerings [5] Automotive Segment - The automotive division is expected to grow, with the YU7 model's delivery numbers indicating strong market acceptance and the potential for further expansion through customized services [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for leading internet companies with stable performance and strong AI positioning, including Tencent Holdings, Pop Mart, Kuaishou, NetEase, Bilibili, and Meitu [1] Core Insights - Tencent hosted the Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, announcing that the daily active users (DAU) for "Delta Action" reached a new high [1] - The internet industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies reporting significant declines in revenue while others show improvement in profitability [2][3] - The overall market performance for the week of September 15-21 shows varied results across different indices, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rising by 4.00% [13] Industry Overview - The internet industry comprises 160 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 2087.8 billion and a circulating market value of 1898.8 billion [5] - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 12.1%, and 77.6% respectively, while the relative performance is -1.7%, -0.1%, and 36.8% [7] Company Announcements - Oriental Selection reported a significant decline in net revenue for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2025, with a 99.64% drop to 6.19 million [2] - Weimeng Group's mid-year report for 2025 showed a revenue decrease of 10.6% to 775 million, but a substantial improvement in net loss, which decreased by 5.17 billion [3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.14% [13] - In the Hong Kong market, Tencent Holdings experienced a slight decline of 0.16%, while Bilibili-W and Kuaishou-W saw increases of 6.64% and 0.73% respectively [18] Recommended Companies - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou-W, Bilibili-W, Pop Mart, and Meitu [1]

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[5] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, with 31 out of 41 industrial categories showing year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 75.6%[5] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion, with added value increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[5] Investment Trends - From January to August, fixed asset investment grew by only 0.5% year-on-year, a decline from 1.6% in the previous period, with real estate being a major drag[5] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth, with notable increases in consumer goods manufacturing (9.0%) and aerospace manufacturing (28.0%)[5] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline, marking the largest monthly drop of the year[6] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in home appliances (14.3%) and furniture (18.6%) despite a slight overall slowdown[6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached over 50%, with August retail sales showing a positive shift to +0.8% from -1.5% in July[6] Market Outlook - The economic recovery momentum is expected to continue, with GDP growth projected to meet the target of around 5% for the year, despite a forecasted slowdown in Q3 compared to Q2[6] - A-shares typically exhibit a "pre-holiday contraction, post-holiday surge" pattern, with over 60% probability of index gains following the National Day holiday[7] Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with short-term credit spreads narrowing while long-term spreads are widening, indicating a mixed market sentiment[7] - The average duration of bank TPL (Total Portfolio Loss) is estimated at 3 years, with projected floating losses of approximately 453 billion yuan for Q3 due to rising long-term bond yields[9]