Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the chemical industry, highlighting the recovery at the bottom of the cycle and the focus on undervalued high-growth stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic assessment of the chemical industry indicates a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term. Natural gas prices are fluctuating at the bottom [3][4]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in profitability for the chemical sector in Q1 2025, driven by terminal inventory replenishment and improved demand, despite ongoing construction projects peaking and declining [3]. - The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 is projected to reach 2.0601 trillion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 3% to 109.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil prices are influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff policies, with Brent crude averaging $80.93 per barrel in 2024, down 2% year-on-year. NYMEX natural gas futures are expected to average $2.41 per million British thermal units, down 10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a "V"-shaped recovery in market conditions, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 9% year-on-year to 32.8 billion yuan [3]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Chemical, as well as growth stocks in semiconductor materials and OLED technologies [3]. - The tire industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and cost reductions, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire highlighted for potential investment [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential in the chemical sector, particularly in segments like agricultural chemicals and specialty chemicals [3]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in price differentials, with PPI data showing a slow recovery from negative values towards zero [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels and price movements in key chemical products, as these factors will influence future profitability and investment opportunities [3][4].

分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the soda ash market, analyzing its fundamentals, price trends, and influencing factors to provide insights for investment decisions [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market has a supply-demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on the day was 1376 yuan/ton, the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -31 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.88%, 1.13%, and -8.82% respectively compared to the previous value [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1345 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] - The profit of the heavy soda ash combined alkali method in East China was 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia-alkali method in North China was -62.50 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.44%, showing a stable recovery [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.55 tons, a decline from the historical high [20] - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual production of 60 tons in 2025 [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 102.69% [24] - The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 15.78 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline at 75.85%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27] - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production increased to 9.1 tons, and production showed signs of stabilization [30] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 169.10 tons, including 84.05 tons of heavy soda ash, which was at a historically high level [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report presented the supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply-demand differences over the years [34] Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3] - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level; the cold repair of float glass downstream of heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak; the escalation of Sino-US tariff conflicts may drag down the market due to macro pessimistic sentiment [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has continued to decline, it is still at a high level in the same period. The supply-demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 3.08%，报 60.14 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 2.76%，报 63.00 美元/桶。 2. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆期货跌 0.94%报 1052.50 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 2.59%报 470.75 美分/蒲式耳，小 麦期货跌 1.22%报 524.50 美分/蒲式耳。 3.国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品表现疲软，纸浆跌 3.05%，玻 璃跌 2.6%，纯碱跌 2.26%，燃油跌 1.41%，低硫燃料油跌 1.2%。黑色系全线下 跌，焦煤跌 1.71%。农产品多数下跌，棕榈油跌近 1%。 原油主力合约收跌 2.07%报 478.0 元/桶。贵金属方面，沪金收跌 0.29%报 785.02 元/克，沪银涨 0.12%报 8226 元/千克。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（4月30日） 6. 俄铝副总裁叶莲娜·别兹杰涅日内赫在接受俄媒《生意人报》采访时表示，受制于高企的氧化铝价格 和外部制裁压力，俄铝自2024年底起已启动产能优化措施，整体铝产量削减了10%。此次减产在西伯利 亚等地的各工厂均匀进行，但并未关闭任何工厂或完全停产。 7. 远兴能源回复称，公司根据各企业纯碱产品的产量、库存及市场情况有序安排接单，产品价格随行就 市。随着阿拉善天然碱项目一期的投产，产能逐步释放，公司主营产品纯碱、小苏打的市场份额稳中有 升。 1. 中钢协数据显示，按照焦煤长协煤钢联动方案数据测算，2025年4月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值环比3月 下降25元/吨，跌幅1.89%。 2. Mysteel卫星数据显示，2024年4月21日-4月27日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量 1258.8万吨，环比上升40.0万吨，库存小幅累库，目前库存绝对量略高于年初以来的平均水平。 3. 农业农村部办公厅印发《养殖业节粮行动实施方案》的通知。其中提到，力争到2030年，全国养殖业 消耗的饲料中粮食用量占比降至60%左右，其中，豆粕用量占比降至10%左右。持续调整优 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The report highlights the cost advantages of natural soda ash becoming apparent, and it is optimistic about the growth potential of the company's new projects [6][8] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.13%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.17% year-on-year to 2.07 billion yuan [6][10] - The report anticipates that with the completion of the Alashan Phase II project and the 1.2 million tons of sodium bicarbonate project, the company is expected to further expand its growth space [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 5.75 million tons of soda ash, a year-on-year increase of 123.88% [7] - The average cost of soda ash for the company in 2024 was 741 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12.31% year-on-year [7] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.70 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.14 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][10] Project Development - As of the end of 2024, the Alashan natural soda project Phase II had an accumulated investment of 1.406 billion yuan, with a project progress of 25%, expected to be completed by December 2025 [8] - The company plans to build a 1.2 million tons sodium bicarbonate project, with a total investment of 3.56 billion yuan, projected to have a pre-tax internal rate of return of 22.15% [8]

Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter, insurance funds favored high-dividend stocks such as banks while reducing holdings in certain energy stocks [1][8]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Holdings - As of April 28, insurance funds were present in the top ten shareholders of 378 companies, with a total holding of 25.705 billion shares valued at 278.806 billion yuan [1]. - The focus of insurance fund holdings was on leading stocks in industries such as banking, telecommunications, hardware, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities [1]. Group 2: Reduction in Energy Stocks - Insurance funds reduced their holdings in several energy stocks, including China General Nuclear Power, which saw a decrease of over 90 million shares, with only China Life remaining among its top ten shareholders holding 22.69 million shares [3]. - Other energy stocks such as China Merchants Jinling, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Yuanxing Energy were also reduced by approximately 49.45 million shares, 46.22 million shares, and 36.34 million shares, respectively [3]. Group 3: Increase in Manufacturing and Mining Stocks - In the first quarter, insurance funds increased their positions in manufacturing and mining stocks, with Qibin Group being the most significantly increased by approximately 34.66 million shares [6]. - Other stocks that saw significant increases included Shenhuo Co., Panjiang Coal, Shangfeng Cement, and Jiahu Energy, each gaining over 10 million shares [6]. Group 4: High Dividend Stocks Preference - Insurance funds continued to favor high-dividend stocks, with significant holdings in banks, operators, insurance, and energy sectors [9]. - Notably, China Life significantly reduced its holdings in China Telecom by approximately 88.64 million shares, and China Ping An reduced its holdings in itself by about 29.74 million shares [9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - As of the end of the first quarter, insurance funds held over 140 billion yuan in bank stocks, making it the most heavily weighted sector for insurance funds [12]. - The report indicates a growing trend in insurance companies actively increasing their stakes in listed companies, particularly in the banking sector, with a total of 12 instances of stake increases this year compared to 2 last year [12].

事件描述 公司发布2024 年报，全年实现收入132.6 亿元（同比+10.1%），实现归属净利润18.1 亿元（同比 +28.5%），实现归属扣非净利润20.7 亿元（同比-14.2%）。2025Q1 实现收入28.7 亿元（同比-7.3%，环 比-0.8%），实现归属净利润3.4 亿元（同比-40.4%，环比+5027.5%），实现归属扣非净利润3.3 亿元 （同比-41.1%，环比+19.6%）。公司拟向全体股东每10 股派发现金红利3.0 元（含税），现金分红总额 11.2 亿元，以4 月24 日收盘价计，股息率约为5.9%。 事件评论 2024 年主要产品价格延续下行，量增对冲部分影响。价格方面，受供需格局恶化及尿素出口限制影 响，2024 年公司主要产品价格呈现下行态势，根据百川盈孚，2024 年国内重质纯碱、轻质纯碱、尿 素、小苏打、动力煤（秦皇岛5500 大卡）均价分别为1967 元/吨、1832 元/吨、2158 元/吨、1675 元/ 吨、902 元/吨，分别同比-28.2%、-27.2%、-12.8%、-18.3%、-8.2%；产销量方面，银根矿业阿拉善塔 木素天然碱项目一期已实现达产达 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy implementation will be focused in the second quarter, and China is well - prepared for the impact of US tariff measures [8] - The People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, to support the economy [8] - China's energy, food supply is sufficient, and the impact of reducing imports from the US is limited [16][28] Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most closed down. Energy - chemical products mostly declined, with butadiene rubber down 1.18%, crude oil down 1.15%, etc.; black - series mostly fell, with coking coal down 1.57%; agricultural products generally dropped, while basic metals showed mixed results, and precious metals rose [2] - **International Precious Metals Futures**: Generally closed up, with COMEX gold futures up 1.71% at $3354.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.20% at $33.40 per ounce [3] - **International Oil Prices**: Weakened, with US crude futures down 1.79% at $61.89 per barrel and Brent crude futures down 1.87% at $64.57 per barrel [4] - **London Basic Metals**: Most rose, such as LME lead up 1.65% at $1977.00 per ton [4] - **CBOT Agricultural Products Futures**: Most closed down, except for soybeans up 0.19% at 1061.25 cents per bushel [4] Macro - Information - **Policy Announcements**: Policy implementation will peak in Q2; the central bank will use monetary tools and introduce incremental policies; relevant departments will promote project construction and address capital shortages [8][9] - **Diplomatic Responses**: There was no recent call between the two heads of state, and no negotiations on tariffs between China and the US [8] - **Industry Data**: As of March 2025, there were 151 futures companies in China; Shanghai's export container freight index declined [13][14] - **International News**: The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement; tensions between India and Pakistan escalated [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - **Supply Situation**: Domestic energy supply is sufficient, and reducing imports from the US has no impact; inventories of some products like styrene and natural rubber changed [16] - **Company Response**: Yuanxing Energy's Alxa natural soda project phase II is progressing as planned [16] Metal Futures - **Gold Market**: China increased its gold reserves in Q1; domestic gold ETF holdings grew significantly; Hong Kong's gold exports to the mainland changed [19][20] - **Other Metals**: The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026; SHFE is soliciting casting aluminum alloy futures delivery products [19][21] Black - Series Futures - **Policy Measures**: Promote automobile consumption, stabilize the capital and real estate markets, and support the real economy [23] - **Iron Ore Data**: China's iron ore arrivals and global shipments changed in a certain period; Brazil's iron ore shipping data showed an increase [23][24][26] Agricultural Product Futures - **Supply Security**: Reducing US agricultural imports has little impact on China's food supply [28] - **Market Data**: Prices of pigs, corn, and other products changed; soybean processing, inventory, and trading data were reported; overseas agricultural production and shipping data were also provided [28][29][32] Financial Markets Commodities - **Commodity Futures**: Domestic and international commodity futures showed various trends; gold reserves and consumption data in China were reported; rice prices in Japan hit a record high [39][40][44] Bonds - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures mostly rose; convertible bond indices fell; government bond issuance data was reported; yields of US and European bonds changed; some bond events occurred [45][46] Foreign Exchange - **Exchange Rates**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed; major RMB exchange rate indices rose; the impact of US bond fluctuations on China's foreign exchange reserves is limited [49] Upcoming Events - **Domestic**: The People's Bank of China has reverse - repurchase maturities; many companies will release financial reports [52] - **International**: Central bank officials will give speeches; some international meetings will be held; the Japanese market is closed for a holiday [52][54]

Group 1 - As of March 2025, there are 151 futures companies in China, with a total agency trading volume of 61.64 trillion yuan and a net profit of 1.417 billion yuan [1] - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil reached 27.584 million tons, an increase of 3.207 million tons week-on-week [1] - As of April 23, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 15.09 yuan/kg, up 0.27% from April 16, while the corn price rose by 0.89% to 2.26 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - As of April 25, 2025, commercial soybean oil stocks in key regions of China were 618,500 tons, down 3,190 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 4.90% [2] - The USDA reported that for the week ending April 24, 2025, the U.S. shipped 205,463 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 46.77% of total export inspections for that week [2] - As of April 26, 2025, Brazil's soybean harvest rate for the 2024/25 season was 94.8%, up from 92.5% the previous week [2] Group 3 - The Alashan natural soda project phase II is progressing as planned, with production expected to start by December [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is soliciting eligible delivery commodities for the upcoming casting aluminum alloy futures, requiring a minimum annual production capacity of 50,000 tons per brand [3]