Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting trading strategies of long-term fund managers compared to the overall public fund adjustments in Q4 2025, indicating a divergence in stock selection amidst a volatile market environment [1][2]. Fund Manager Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding for public funds, with an increase in market value exceeding 22 billion yuan. However, several long-term fund managers chose to reduce their positions in Zhongji Xuchuang, with reductions exceeding 40% by managers like Mo Haibo and Shen Ai Qian [1][2]. - Similar trends were observed with another popular stock, Xinyi Semiconductor, where public funds increased holdings by over 9 billion yuan, yet long-term fund manager Yang Dong reduced his position by over 40% [2]. - Notably, Industrial Fulian exited the top ten holdings for public funds, while some long-term managers like Liu Yuanhai increased their positions, showcasing differing strategies among fund managers [3]. Portfolio Management - Many long-term fund managers opted to lower their stock positions in Q4 2025, aligning with the overall trend of reduced stock allocations in public funds. For instance, the stock allocation of Mo Haibo's fund dropped from 85.20% to 71.92%, a decrease of approximately 13 percentage points [4]. - The concentration of holdings among long-term funds remained high, with many funds having over 50% of their net asset value in the top ten holdings, although some funds showed a noticeable decrease in concentration compared to Q3 2025 [5]. Sector Allocation - Fund managers displayed a diversified approach in their sector allocations, favoring areas such as AI, cyclical stocks, and consumer sectors. For example, Yang Dong's fund gained excess returns by focusing on AI and robotics, while Liu Yuanhai's fund adjusted its AI allocations during Q4 2025 [6][7]. - The cyclical sector gained traction among fund managers, with significant investments in non-ferrous metals and chemicals. For instance, Li You's fund made substantial increases in holdings of companies like Zijin Mining and Yun Aluminum [6][9]. - In the consumer and social services sectors, managers like Mo Haibo and Miao Weibin focused on domestic demand-related stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards consumer resilience and emerging consumption trends [6][9]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, long-term fund managers maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by multiple positive factors, including corporate earnings recovery and improved liquidity [7][8]. - The AI sector remains a focal point, with managers emphasizing the importance of AI applications over hardware, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards practical applications of AI technology [8][9].

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲， 正汇聚成一股时代洪流，预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间，可能远超我们想象。"近日，多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工，在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时，也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年，大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "2026年，非常有希望成为物价走势变局之年。"万家基金权益投资部基金经理叶勇直言，这可能触发市 场风格的重大切换，其信心主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the contrasting strategies of long-term fund managers in the fourth quarter of 2025, showcasing their unique approaches to portfolio adjustments amidst market trends, particularly in the context of popular stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng. Group 1: Fund Manager Strategies - Long-term fund managers are reducing their positions in popular stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, despite it being the top holding for public funds, with some managers cutting their stakes by over 40% [2][3] - There is a notable divergence among fund managers regarding their positions in stocks like Xinyi Sheng, with some increasing their holdings while others significantly reduce them [2][3] - Fund managers are also moving away from high concentration holdings, opting for a more diversified portfolio approach, as seen in the significant reductions in the concentration of top holdings [4] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Trends - The AI industry remains a focal point for investment, but fund managers are diversifying their portfolios to include sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and military [4] - There is a growing interest in cyclical sectors, with managers increasing their positions in aluminum, copper, and chemicals, indicating a shift in investment strategy [5] - The consumer and social services sectors are also seeing increased investment, with managers adding new positions in companies related to tourism and luxury goods [6] Group 3: Market Outlook for 2026 - Fund managers express optimism for the market in 2026, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by profit recovery and liquidity [7] - The focus on AI applications is expected to shift from foundational infrastructure to practical applications, with specific attention on AI-driven technologies [7] - Investment in cyclical sectors is expected to remain valuable, with managers highlighting the potential for recovery in aluminum and copper prices [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, suggesting a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the aluminum sector [6][10] - The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with a long-term outlook indicating limited supply growth against a backdrop of increasing demand [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3173.5 per ton, up $39.5 from the previous week, marking a 1.3% week-on-week increase and a 20.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 24290.0 CNY per ton, up 365.0 CNY from the previous week, reflecting a 1.5% week-on-week increase and a 19.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 24130.0 CNY per ton, up 130.0 CNY week-on-week, representing a 0.5% increase and a 19.5% year-on-year increase [22] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 378.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [55] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 752.0 million tons, up 8.0 million tons month-on-month and up 2.5% year-on-year [55] 3. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 743,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons, indicating a slight slowdown in inventory accumulation [7] - The report notes that the overall inventory levels have not peaked, suggesting ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5] - China Hongqiao's stock price was 32.16 CNY with an EPS forecast of 2.77 CNY for 2026, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.6 [5] 5. Demand - The report indicates that downstream demand remains subdued, with only essential purchases being made due to high aluminum prices and a seasonal demand lull [7] - The overall operating rate for aluminum processing was recorded at 60.9%, showing a slight increase but indicating mixed performance across different segments [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].

Core Insights - Zhaotong City has achieved significant economic growth, with its GDP surpassing 200 billion yuan, marking an average annual growth rate of 6.2% and moving up two positions to rank 5th in the province [4] - The city has successfully completed its "three-year step-up" task and high-quality goals set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, demonstrating a historic leap in comprehensive strength and significant improvements in urban and rural landscapes [2] Economic Development - The total fixed asset investment reached 572.2 billion yuan, with the proportion of industrial investment increasing from 27% to 50.4% and private investment rising from 19.6% to 41.6% [4] - Local general public budget revenue has entered the 10 billion yuan range, reaching 12.02 billion yuan, also moving up two positions to rank 5th in the province [4] Employment and Poverty Alleviation - The stable employment of rural laborers has maintained over 2.55 million, with significant investments in employment initiatives and poverty alleviation [8] - The risk elimination rate for monitored poverty alleviation objects reached 87.66%, with 63,600 households and 268,500 individuals identified [6] Infrastructure and Urbanization - The urbanization rate of the permanent population has increased to 45%, with the built-up area of urban areas reaching 139.7 square kilometers [12] - The highway mileage has surpassed 1,000 kilometers, enhancing connectivity with neighboring provinces [14] Environmental and Ecological Progress - The air quality in Zhaotong has achieved an excellent rate of over 98%, and the water quality of the Chishui River (Zhaotong section) has been recognized as a national model [14] Education and Healthcare - A total of 167,000 new educational slots have been created, with a stable compulsory education retention rate of over 99% [16] - New healthcare facilities have been established, including a women's and children's hospital and an infectious disease hospital [16] Policy and Governance - The "streamlining administration and delegating power" reform has been deepened, with 483 items achieving "cross-provincial handling" [18] - The total assets of state-owned enterprises have increased by 37.12%, with a net increase of 195,300 operating entities [18]

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and strategic positioning of the FuGuo Transformation Opportunity Mixed Fund (005739) for the fourth quarter of 2025, showcasing a profit of 18.55 million yuan and a net asset value growth rate of 9.88% [3]. Fund Performance - The fund's profit for the fourth quarter was 18.55 million yuan, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1841 yuan [3]. - As of January 22, the fund's unit net value was 2.237 yuan, with a recent three-month net value growth rate of 18.39%, ranking 58 out of 621 comparable funds [4]. - Over the past year, the fund achieved a net value growth rate of 42.38%, ranking 283 out of 613 comparable funds [4]. Market Context - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced slight upward movement during the fourth quarter, with the annual GDP growth target of 5% being largely met [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to a renewed expectation of market easing, while commodities, particularly base and precious metals, saw significant price increases [3]. Fund Holdings and Strategy - As of the end of the fourth quarter, the fund's total assets amounted to 199 million yuan [15]. - The top ten holdings of the fund include companies such as Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and XCMG Machinery, indicating a focus on sectors like tires and machinery [18]. - The fund maintained an average stock position of 82.22% over the past three years, slightly below the industry average of 85.83% [14]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.3685, ranking 339 out of 526 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 29.84%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown recorded at 19.29% in the first quarter of 2022 [11].

作者丨易妍君 编辑丨张星 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末，中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包括主动股 票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中 际旭创 股价报585元，总市值6500亿元。 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控股成为基 金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七大重仓股；而宁 德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增配较多的 行业包括有色金属、通信、非银、化工、机械；主要减配了电子、医药生物、传媒、计算机、电力设备 等行业。 "从宏观角度看，市场资金在追求短期收益与长期战略配置之间寻求平衡，对行业发展前景与政策环境 的综合考量导致了资金流向的调整。"受访人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出。 重仓股排序更迭 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓股 ...