Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade negotiations remains, but the recent meeting between the two sides has marginally improved the sentiment. In the copper industry, raw material supply is tight, and future supply expectations are tightening due to overseas copper mine production cuts, so copper prices may strengthen after short - term fluctuations. For aluminum, the short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner as the domestic inventory level is low and overseas supply is disrupted. Lead is expected to be strong in the short term due to continuous destocking of lead ingot social and factory inventories. Zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential because of high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory. Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to a tight supply - demand balance and improving seasonal demand. Nickel prices may be under short - term pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are approaching the previous pressure level, and attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the cost support and supply - side reduction expectations coexist. Stainless steel market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand. Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upside due to high warehouse receipts and cost - side support [3][5][8][10][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 0.59% to $10,658/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 37,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may strengthen after oscillation. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 84,800 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $10,550 - $10,800/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. The LME aluminum closed up 0.88% at $2,405/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,105 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract open interest increased by 2.6 to 517,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 67,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may further rise in a volatile manner. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,960 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $2,780 - $2,840/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.09% to 17,172 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose to $1,992.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased slightly to 32,800 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term as the supply and demand situation is favorable with continuous destocking [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22,008 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose to $3,003/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 165,300 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The SHFE zinc may oscillate at a low level with limited upside potential due to high overseas structural risks and rising domestic total inventory [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 0.29% to 281,680 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining. The demand from new energy vehicles and AI servers is strong, but traditional sectors are weak. The short - term consumption has improved marginally [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is $34,000 - $36,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices continued to oscillate at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel prices may be under pressure but have limited downside space in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index dropped 0.17%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased, and the LC2601 contract rose 1.50% [18]. - **Strategy**: The price is approaching the previous pressure level. Attention should be paid to supply recovery expectations and hedging pressure. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 75,200 - 79,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,839 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price dropped, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.36% to 12,710 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the 300 - series inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Market confidence has been restored, and the follow - up trend depends on downstream demand [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2512 rose 0.56% to 20,515 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was flat, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost - side support has strengthened, but the price upside is limited due to high warehouse receipts [28].

Core Viewpoint - In September, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market experienced a dual weakness in supply and demand, with refinery inventory decreasing while port inventory increased, indicating a lack of strong expectations for market improvement in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Analysis - As of September 30, the LPG refinery inventory rate was 27.91%, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The estimated domestic LPG commodity volume for September was 1.6221 million tons, a decrease of 5.65% month-on-month, with an average daily commodity volume of 54,070 tons, down 0.14% [2]. - The average port inventory rate for domestic main ports was 52.36%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) plant operating rates showed a decline followed by a slight recovery, with a weekly operating rate of 72.03% as of September 25, down 0.55 percentage points from the end of the previous month [3]. - Despite a traditional peak season for propane consumption, terminal demand growth was below expectations due to ongoing policy impacts [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The LPG market in September showed a divergence in price trends, with residential gas prices initially rising but later declining due to increased port resources and weak terminal demand [6]. - The ether C4 market remained weak, influenced by poor downstream demand and rising upstream inventory pressures, leading to accelerated price declines [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LPG market is expected to exhibit weak and fluctuating trends in October, with passive consumption of refinery and port inventories [7]. - Residential gas prices are anticipated to be weak due to abundant domestic supply and declining import costs, despite a potential increase in burning demand as temperatures drop [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to the game between the expected support from the export end and the domestic demand in the third quarter. The implementation of India's tender and the release of quotas will relieve the domestic high - supply pressure to some extent, but the domestic consumption restricts the upward elasticity. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak and volatile, and the actual export volume needs to be monitored [29]. - For methanol, the inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high output year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the import in August is still high. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal peak season and Iran's shutdown expectations. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the near - end weakens [32]. - In the polyester industry, the supply of PX is expected to increase marginally in August, but the demand from PTA and the terminal is not good, so the PX rebound is lack of drive. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved in the short - term but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve. Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand drive is limited. Bottle - chip's processing fee has support, and its absolute price follows the cost [37]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the demand for caustic soda is currently good, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rebound height is limited. PVC's supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity release, and the downstream demand has no sign of improvement [46]. - In the polyolefin industry, the supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season. The fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to stop profit for short positions and hold the LP01 contract [52]. - For crude oil, the overnight oil price declined due to the supply - side factors. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the oil price is under pressure. The oil price is likely to remain weak, and the impact of the US - Russia negotiation on Friday needs to be monitored [59]. - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, pure benzene has short - term support but limited self - drive, and its rebound is under pressure. Styrene has a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [63]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Contracts**: On August 13, the 01 contract was 1747 yuan/ton (-0.51% compared to August 12), the 05 contract was 1788 yuan/ton (-0.45%), the 09 contract was 1726 yuan/ton (-0.06%), and the methanol main contract was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [25]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: On August 13, the 01 - 05 contract spread was -41 yuan/ton (-2.50% compared to August 12), the 05 - 09 contract spread was 62 yuan/ton (-10.14%), the 09 - 01 contract spread was -21 yuan/ton (27.59%), and the UR - MA main contract spread was -649 yuan/ton (2.26%) [26]. - **Main Positions**: On August 13, the long top 20 positions were 42364 (-17.26% compared to August 12), the short top 20 positions were 49534 (-18.28%), the long - short ratio was 0.86 (1.26%), the unilateral trading volume was 90686 (-0.82%), and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt quantity was 3823 (0.00%) [27]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On August 13, the price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng was 900 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner was 525 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [28]. - **Spot Market Prices**: On August 13, the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (0.58%), in Shanxi was 1620 yuan/ton (-0.61%), etc. [28]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: On August 13, the Shandong - Henan spread was -10 yuan/ton (0%), the Guangdong - Henan spread was 140 yuan/ton (-7%), etc. [29]. - **Downstream Products**: On August 13, the price of melamine in Shandong was 5194 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan was 2930 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [29]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: On August 15, the domestic daily urea output was 19.21 million tons (1.05% compared to August 14), the coal - based urea daily output was 15.03 million tons (1.35%), etc. [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the MA2601 closing price was 2479 yuan/ton (-0.68% compared to August 12), the MA2509 closing price was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%), etc. [31]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% (0.64% compared to the previous value), the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (10.41%), and the methanol social inventory was 131.7% (8.06%) [31]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 73.17% (2.28% compared to the previous value), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.4% (0.00%), etc. [32]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 13, the POY150/48 price was 6745 yuan/ton (0.2% compared to August 12), the FDY150/96 price was 7095 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China PX price was 10300 yuan/ton (-0.4% compared to August 12), the PX - naphtha spread was 267 yuan/ton (1.1%), etc. [37]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the PTA East - China spot price was 4695 yuan/ton (-0.2% compared to August 12), the TA09 - TA01 spread was -34 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: On August 11, the MEG port inventory was 51.6 million tons (7.2% compared to August 4), and the MEG arrival expectation was 14.1 million tons (3.7%) [37]. - **Polyester Industry Operating Rate Changes**: The Asian PX operating rate was 73.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the PTA operating rate was 76.2% (0.9%), etc. [37]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 13, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500 yuan/ton (0.0%), the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2620 yuan/ton (0.8%), etc. [42]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the P - 13 - 4 price was 390 US dollars/ton (-2.59% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 142.5 yuan/ton (19.0%) [42]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the CFR Southeast Asia price was 680 US dollars/ton (0.0% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 30.3 yuan/ton (152.5%) [43]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate was 89.1% (1.7% compared to August 1), the PVC total operating rate was 77.8% (6.1%), etc. [44]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate was 82.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 85.0% (0.0%), etc. [45]. - **Inventory**: On August 7, the liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was 21.9 million tons (2.0% compared to July 31), the PVC total social inventory was 48.1 million tons (7.3%), etc. [46]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the L2601 closing price was 7381 yuan/ton (-0.11% compared to August 12), the L2509 closing price was 7313 yuan/ton (-0.22%), etc. [50]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: The East - China LDPE price was 9550 yuan/ton (0.00% compared to the previous value), the East - China HD film price was 7490 yuan/ton (-0.13%), etc. [51]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate was 77.8% (-2.10% compared to the previous value), the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 37.9% (-0.47%), etc. [51]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, Brent was 65.63 US dollars/barrel (-0.74% compared to August 13), WTI was 62.79 US dollars/barrel (0.22%), SC was 490.50 yuan/barrel (-0.77%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, NYM RBOB was 207.72 US dollars/gallon (0.33% compared to August 13), NYM ULSD was 224.90 US dollars/gallon (0.28%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: On August 14, the US gasoline crack spread was 24.45 US dollars/barrel (2.08% compared to August 13), the European gasoline crack spread was 16.04 US dollars/barrel (0.00%), etc. [59]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China pure benzene price was 751 US dollars/ton (-0.5% compared to August 12), the pure benzene - naphtha spread was 187 US dollars/ton (1.1%), etc. [63]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the styrene East - China spot price was 7350 yuan/ton (-0.3% compared to August 12), the EB09 - EB10 spread was -23 yuan/ton (-11.5%), etc. [63]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: On August 13, the phenol cash flow was -720 yuan/ton (-1.2% compared to August 12), the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was -1845 yuan/ton (1.7%), etc. [63]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: On August 11, the pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.60 million tons (-10.4% compared to August 4), the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.88 million tons (-6.4%), etc. [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is a continued pattern of consolidation, with potential disruptions from raw materials. Most of the individual product ratings are "oscillating," with some "oscillating weakly" and none with a strong positive or negative outlook [3][7][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical chain currently has few contradictions and continues to consolidate. After experiencing the largest weekly decline since late June, crude oil futures prices stabilized slightly on Monday. The chemical chain as a whole continued to oscillate, with coal prices rising and crude oil showing signs of short - term stabilization after seven consecutive days of decline. European natural gas futures also rose due to high - temperature weather increasing power - generation demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Crude oil prices stabilized slightly after a significant weekly decline. Global crude oil inventories increased on a weekly basis, with a significant drop in Indian on - shore inventories and a change in India's import rhythm. The chemical chain showed an overall oscillating trend, with some products experiencing inventory changes and price fluctuations [1] 3.2 Individual Product Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the focus is on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [7] - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance. The absolute price is over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [7] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical upgrades will only cause short - term price disturbances [7][8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil and is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [9] - **Methanol**: The inland market remains relatively strong, and the price is oscillating. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [22] - **Urea**: The market is mainly in a stalemate, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The short - term fundamentals cannot provide effective support [22][23] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventory accumulation is not sustainable, and the medium - term price support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate within a certain range [16][19] - **PX**: The price of oil has stopped falling slightly, and the chemical products are in the stage of bottom - consolidation. The short - term cost still provides some support, and the price decline space is limited [11] - **PTA**: The sales volume of polyester filament has increased, boosting market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate, and the focus is on the implementation of major factory maintenance at the beginning of August [12][13] - **Short - Fiber**: The sales are mediocre, and the market is in a consolidation phase. The price follows the movement of raw materials, and the bottom support is strengthening [19][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The raw materials have stabilized, supporting the bottom of the price. The price follows the cost of raw materials in the short term [20][21] - **PP**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the price is oscillating. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the demand side is in the off - peak to peak season transition [27][28] - **Propylene (PL)**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is considered reasonable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and inventory has increased. The price is oscillating, and the supply side still faces certain pressure [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Import arrivals have decreased, and downstream production has started. The buying sentiment has increased this week, and the market structure has turned to Back. The overall inventory is expected to decrease slightly in August [13][14] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The non - integrated profit has reached a neutral level [15][16] - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure comes from high supply and continuous inventory accumulation [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the price is temporarily oscillating. The 50% caustic soda price has rebounded, which has a certain boosting effect on the futures price [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.67 with no change, and Dubai's M1 - M2 spread being 0.75 with a 0.01 change [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis and warehouse - receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 199 with a change of - 83, and the number of warehouse receipts is 76670 [35] - **Inter - product Spreads**: There are various inter - product spread data, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 335 with a change of - 1 [36] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Specific monitoring data for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are provided, but detailed data summaries are not presented in the text [37][49][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].