| | | | | | | | E ST ART FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | - 1000 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

Core Viewpoint - In the second half of this year, the zinc market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, supported by tightening raw material supply and increasing demand from domestic refineries [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc supply has become more relaxed due to the resumption of overseas mines, with refinery raw material inventories available for about 28 days and processing fees continuously recovering, leading to improved refinery profits of approximately 2000 CNY/ton [1] - Monthly production from refineries has increased from around 500,000 tons to over 600,000 tons, with some refineries starting winter storage in mid-September, further boosting demand [1] - The price ratio between Shanghai zinc and London zinc remains low, with refineries favoring the purchase of domestic ore due to cost-effectiveness, while imports are primarily through long-term contracts [1] - As temperatures drop in the north, some mines will enter seasonal maintenance, potentially tightening supply into the first quarter of next year [1] Processing Fees and Profitability - As of November 7, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has decreased to 2650 CNY/metal ton, down 32.05% from the peak in September, while the processing fee for imported zinc concentrate has also declined to 98.37 USD/dry ton, down 17.16% from October's high [2] - The latest announcement from the China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group indicates that the processing fee guidance for imported zinc concentrate will be between 105-120 USD/dry ton until the end of Q1 2026 [2] - The shift in processing fees has led to a transfer of profits back to the mining sector, with zinc concentrate production profits rising to 5398 CNY/metal ton, a 52.06% increase compared to September, while refined zinc production profits have dropped to -1338 CNY/ton, a decline of 1172 CNY/ton [2] Inventory Trends - London zinc inventory has been decreasing since late April, reaching 37,800 tons by November 12, a decline of 80.65% from the peak in April and 84.79% year-on-year [4] - Domestic inventories continue to accumulate due to sufficient raw materials and good production profits, with refined zinc production from January to October totaling 5.6863 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.09% [6] - Downstream enterprises are primarily purchasing zinc ingots based on demand and price dips, leading to a continuous accumulation of inventory [6] Market Structure and Future Outlook - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement permanent rules to address liquidity risks in near-month contracts, indicating a systematic response to structural risks in the market [7] - The current state of Shanghai zinc futures shows "pressure above and support below," with expectations of slight downward price movement in the short term due to high inventory levels and weak demand, while tight raw material supply and reduced refinery production expectations provide strong support for prices in the medium to long term [9]

| G国贸期货 | 日時 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 20 | 份格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 農湯 | | 投稿 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 无刘全部 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 国 | 震荡 | 至间。 | 近期市场对美联储12月降息预期降温,铜价回调,但预计回调幅 | | | | | 農汤 | 度有限。 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而美联储12月份降息预期降温,铝价回调 | | | | | | 農汤 | JE | 在生产仍有小幅利润情况下,国内氧化铝产能持续释放,氧化铝 | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价格继续围绕 | HE STAC | 成本线附近震荡运行。 | 美联储12月降 ...

Core Insights - The iron ore market is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with short-term trends dependent on policy stimuli and production cuts from steel mills [1] Supply Side - Australia shipped 14.149 million tons of iron ore to China this week, a decrease of 454,000 tons week-on-week - Brazil's shipments to China were 7.269 million tons, down by 220,000 tons week-on-week - Overall shipment volumes have slightly declined [1] Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of 163 steel mills is at 90.33%, a decrease of 0.24% week-on-week - Daily pig iron production is 2.4095 million tons, down by 5,900 tons week-on-week - Demand remains relatively stable [1] Inventory Levels - Imported iron ore port inventory stands at 135.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5077 million tons week-on-week - The average daily throughput at 45 ports is 3.27 million tons, a decrease of 112,800 tons week-on-week - Total inventory at steel mills is 89.827 million tons, down by 634,600 tons week-on-week, indicating a slight overall increase in inventory [1] Market Dynamics - Iron ore futures have been on a downward trend, primarily due to the shift in fundamentals towards strong supply and weak demand - Global major mining shipments are at seasonal highs, leading to ample port arrivals and inventory accumulation, which exerts price pressure [1] Steel Industry Challenges - The downstream steel industry is facing difficulties, with steel mill profits being squeezed and operating near breakeven - Some steel mills are planning maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decline in daily consumption and cautious procurement, which weakens demand support [1] Macro Environment - The overall market sentiment is bearish, influenced by changes in China-U.S. trade relations, raising concerns about global growth and commodity demand, which casts a shadow over iron ore prices [1] Short-term Outlook - The iron ore market is under pressure from three main factors: ample supply, weakening demand, and insufficient macro confidence - Short-term trends will depend on stimulus policies and production cuts from steel mills - Iron ore main contract 01 has recently seen a slight decline, with a short-term reference range of 750 to 800, indicating high volatility and the need for risk management [1]

Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors affecting alumina prices have not reversed, and the futures prices continue to face pressure. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and pay attention to the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, with a focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices this month was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and as of October 10, the Shandong spot price had a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable at - 25 yuan/ton [11][20]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained at a high level this month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation is expected to persist. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had significantly declined compared to early September [11][18]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September. The alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 9.96 tons to 10.63 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 8.74 tons to 20.66 tons [11][63][65]. 3.2期现端 (Spot and Futures End) - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained high, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, causing spot prices to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had dropped significantly compared to early September [18]. - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable [20]. 3.3原料端 (Raw Material End) - **Bauxite Prices**: In September, the bauxite price in Henan decreased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. As of October 10, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 73 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Domestic bauxite production decreased due to the rainy season and environmental policies [27]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The total imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. China imported 1233 tons of bauxite from Guinea in August, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.68%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first eight months were 107.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.74% [29][32]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of October 3, 2025, the global bauxite shipments from major countries remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory reached a new high of 29.98 million tons this year, indicating sufficient ore supply. In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a near - five - year high [35][37]. 3.4供给端 (Supply End) - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [40]. - **New Alumina Production Capacity**: In the first half of the year, projects were successfully put into production and gradually released output. The Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into production in the third quarter. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter is uncertain, and the Oriental Hope project is expected to be postponed to January 2026 [43]. - **Alumina Smelting Profits**: Alumina spot prices continued to decline, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of October 10, the production profit in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton, while the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinean ores were 50 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinean ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses [45]. 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - **Alumina Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import volume decreased from 126,000 tons last month to 94,000 tons, and the export volume decreased from 229,000 tons to 181,000 tons. The cumulative net export in the first eight months was 1.265 million tons. With the recent opening of the import window, the import volume in September and October is expected to gradually increase, potentially exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [48]. - **Alumina Import Window**: As of October 10, the Australian FOB price had decreased by 38 dollars/ton to 324 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 6 yuan/ton. The release of new overseas production capacity drove the spot price down, opening the import window [51]. 3.6需求端 (Demand End) - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The total production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [55]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [58]. 3.7库存 (Inventory) - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September, with increases in various types of inventory [63]. - **Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipts and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 87,400 tons to 206,600 tons. As the market supply of spot goods gradually loosened, the registration volume of warehouse receipts gradually recovered [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to show narrow - range consolidation. Although steel billet exports have increased significantly, market expectations for peak - season demand are low, and there are concerns about post - National Day inventory accumulation. The large amount of warehouse receipts also affects market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has declined, but iron - water production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has continued to decline, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Some coal mines are under maintenance, and downstream procurement has increased. However, the increase in coking coal prices has widened the losses of coking enterprises, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The domestic coke market is stable, but the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk. The demand for pre - National Day restocking by steel mills has increased, and the demand from downstream steel mills is relatively stable [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. The fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, limited demand, and weak cost support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, weak demand, and increased raw - material costs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 20,300 lots in positions. Spot prices and trading volume decreased. From January to August 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 9.2362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.24%, and 1.7642 million tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 236.03% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 290,000 lots and a reduction of 15,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased by 1.658 million tons to 19.188 million tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 393,000 tons to 8.54 million tons. Iron - water production increased by 4,700 tons to 2.4102 million tons, and the steel mill profit rate continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, with no price change and a reduction of 9,423 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Lvliang increased by 60 yuan to 1263 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market showed a strong - oscillating trend. Some coal mines were under maintenance, and downstream procurement increased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 425 lots in positions. The spot price in ports decreased. Some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged dry - quenched coke, but the profit of coking enterprises continued to shrink [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: On Tuesday, the silicomanganese futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract closing at 5882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% month - on - month, and a reduction of 4,631 lots in positions to 335,200 lots. The market price was 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton, basically unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream steel tender price was set at 6000 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to reach a new high in the future. Production was at a relatively high level, demand was limited, and cost support was weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the main contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month, and a reduction of 12,607 lots in positions to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price was about 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production was at a relatively high level, demand from steel mills was weak, and the inventory of steel mills increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months), basis, and spot prices for various varieties including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are also provided, along with their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various varieties [27][28][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [42][43][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts present the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][49][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - commodity research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, nearing historical highs due to favorable fundamentals and disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a cooling labor market and increased expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support levels at 3600 and 3620, and resistance levels at 3660 and 3675. A potential high-level consolidation phase is anticipated [2][4] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to further assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing a mild rebound, with Brent crude rising by 0.53% to $66.74 per barrel and WTI crude increasing by 0.57% to $62.99 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. calls for tariffs on Russian oil [5][6] - The current price increase is primarily influenced by short-term geopolitical risks rather than improvements in the fundamental supply-demand balance, with inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increases being key factors for long-term price trends [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term trading strategies focusing on selling into rallies and buying on dips, with resistance at 64.5-65.5 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].