Group 1 - Shenzhen plans to release 39 new residential projects in Q4 2025, with a total supply area of approximately 1,601,853.70 square meters and 12,334 units [1] - The residential supply includes 1,307,480.51 square meters and 10,112 units, while commercial apartments, commercial spaces, and office spaces account for 205,780.79 square meters (1,215 units), 31,779.77 square meters (391 units), and 56,812.63 square meters (616 units) respectively [1] - Nanshan District has the highest number of planned projects at 9, while Longhua District sees a significant reduction in supply with only 2 projects [1] Group 2 - Following the new housing policy introduced on September 5, 2023, the market activity in Shenzhen has increased, with a 43.5% month-on-month rise in the total number of new residential units signed [1] - The new policy coincided with a peak period for new project launches, leading to increased transaction volumes due to both policy incentives and high-quality housing supply [1] - The focus of buyers has shifted towards practical new developments and quickly available existing properties, while commercial and apartment properties in core areas maintain high transaction volumes [1] Group 3 - A "discount war" has emerged in Shenzhen's new housing market, with many projects offering significant promotions to attract buyers [2] - The real estate market is entering a phase of intense competition, with price reductions being a key strategy for customer acquisition [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that only 5 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices increase month-on-month, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices [2] Group 4 - The overall adjustment in real estate prices is deepening, with a notable decline in sales prices across various cities, although some signs of stabilization are emerging [2] - The market is currently in a "weak recovery" phase, with lingering inventory pressure and a need for time to restore market confidence [2] - The industry faces the challenge of converting short-term sales increases into long-term confidence restoration [2]

Report Title - Stock Index Monthly Report: The AI technology wave is still spreading, and domestic macro policies are worth looking forward to [2] Core Views - **Macro**: In the short term, macro disturbances at home and abroad will continue in October. Overseas, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of October and whether employment and inflation data support rate cuts. In China, there will be a series of macro events in October, and overall, short - term macro disturbances to the market will increase, but medium - to - long - term policy guidance is still bullish [4]. - **Mesoeconomics**: New home sales in the real estate market have recovered under policy stimulus and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. The service industry is structurally differentiated and remains resilient at high levels. The profitability of cyclical enterprises recovers weakly, consumer subsidies restart, and manufacturing exports re - balance after tariff policy disturbances. The domestic economy remains in a weak reality stage, and attention should be paid to weak recovery opportunities under anti - involution and domestic demand - boosting policies [4]. - **Funds**: Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity tends to be loose under the optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. The stock market has obtained leveraged funds and funds from the transfer of household deposits, but the pressure of restricted stock sales continues to increase, market divergence emerges, and it is more difficult to push the market higher after reaching a high level [4]. - **Valuation**: After a short - term sharp rise, the valuations of various indices have entered relatively high historical levels. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad is low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the valuation of the broad - based index market is high, especially for the growth style. The risk premium index at home and abroad has dropped to a low level, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. However, excess liquidity has accelerated the entry of speculative funds. In October, with macro - policy expectations and the valuation switch in the fourth quarter, the cyclical style has room for a supplementary rise. Without significant macro - negatives, the market is expected to rise inertia - ally, but volatility and risks at high levels will increase. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for stock indices in October, buy IF and IH on sharp drops, or focus on short - term arbitrage opportunities by going long on IH and IF and short on IM and IC [4]. Market Review Global Stock Market Performance - In the past month, the Hang Seng Tech Index led the rise, while the German stock market led the decline. The performance order is Hang Seng Tech > ChiNext Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Dow Jones Index > Nikkei 225 > CSI 300 > NASDAQ > FTSE Europe > Shanghai Composite Index > German DAX [8]. Industry Performance - In the past month, the new energy sector led the rise, while the comprehensive finance sector led the decline. The order is new energy > non - ferrous metals > electronics > real estate > automobiles... > commercial retail > non - bank finance > military industry > banks > comprehensive finance [12]. Futures Performance - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.04%, 0.15%, 1.15%, and 1.36% respectively, with the discounts of IC and IM narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.05%, - 0.08%, - 0.09%, and - 0.12% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM expanding slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) changed by 0%, 0.15%, 0.77%, and 0.73% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IC and IM converging significantly [20]. Fund Flows Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds - In September, margin trading funds inflowed 167.39 billion yuan to reach 2.43 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly by 0.13% to 2.54%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3,696.29 billion yuan, an increase of 190.78 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 2062.01 billion shares, with a net subscription of 73.41 billion shares from the previous month, and a net subscription of 21.02 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 88.37 billion yuan [23]. Industrial Capital - In September, equity financing was 155.34 billion yuan, with 8 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 10.63 billion yuan, private placement was 144.71 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.5 billion yuan. The equity financing scale rebounded significantly to a neutral level. The market value of restricted stock sales (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, and equity incentives) in September was 305.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.77 billion yuan from the previous month, and it was the second consecutive month of reduction this year, with a cumulative reduction of 2,586.82 billion yuan this year [26]. Liquidity Monetary Injection - In September, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 6,949.4 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 7,339.6 billion yuan, with a net monetary injection of 39.02 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business remained loose. The MLF injection in September was 600 billion yuan, and the maturity was 300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 7 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is relatively loose [28]. Monetary Demand - In August, the issuance of national bonds was 1,490.49 billion yuan, and the maturity was 762.12 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 728.37 billion yuan. The issuance of local bonds was 851.9 billion yuan, and the maturity was 405.9 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 446 billion yuan. The issuance of other bonds was 5,760.34 billion yuan, and the maturity was 5,825.27 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 64.92 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 8,102.74 billion yuan, and the maturity was 6,993.29 billion yuan, with a net monetary demand of 1,109.44 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market is strong, driven by the front - loading of financing demand for national and local government bonds [31]. Fund Prices - In September, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 7.8bp, 11.4bp, and 4.8bp respectively to 1.44%, 1.53%, and 1.38%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 10.3bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 1bp to 1.66%. The fund rate is significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly higher than the policy rate DR007 of 1.44%. The fund supply is loose, the debt financing demand is strong, and the fund price generally rebounded slightly at a low level [34]. Term Structure - In September, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by 1.9bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 2.4bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by 8.6bp. The yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by 16.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by 3.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by 4.7bp. Overall, the yield term structure flattened significantly in September. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened significantly at both the long and short ends, highlighting a strong expectation of broad credit [38]. Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - In September, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 7.0bp to 4.18%, the inflation expectation changed by - 5.0bp to 2.34%, and the real interest rate changed by - 2.00bp to 1.84%. The price of risk assets strengthened due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 8.00bp to 58.00bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 8.92bp to - 232.30bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.1%. The US dollar against the RMB returned to a level slightly below the central range of the past three years and was supported [41]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals Real Estate Demand - As of October 2, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.4702 million square meters, a seasonal rebound from 1.906 million square meters in the previous week, returning to the neutral level of the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the epidemic, it decreased by 17.1%. Second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally, with a significant month - on - month decline, and were at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales have generally recovered, and attention should be paid to whether macro policies in October will further boost the real estate market [44]. Service Industry Activities - As of August 29, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities across the country remained at a high level, reaching 84.23 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% and a 51% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activities in the service industry remained at a high level, mainly driven by the peak of the tourism season. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded slightly from the previous week, at a relatively high neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activities in the service industry tend to grow naturally and steadily, with a slight strengthening in monthly changes [47]. Manufacturing Tracking - In September, the capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry rebounded comprehensively. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.63%, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt changed by 10.8%, the capacity utilization rate of cement clinker enterprises changed by 21.23%, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises changed by 1.77%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by 1.44% from the previous week. On the one hand, the anti - involution policy led to an increase in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the domestic and external demand of the manufacturing industry continued to recover [51]. Freight and Passenger Flows - Freight and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The weekly marginal decline was observed in the fields of postal express delivery dominated by e - commerce and civil aviation flights dominated by tourism consumption. Highway transportation was relatively weak with limited growth, while railway transportation rebounded significantly, highlighting the re - balance of the manufacturing industry after the implementation of tariff policies, showing certain resilience [56]. Import and Export - In terms of exports, the tariff policies of the US against major countries have been finalized, and global trade has entered a re - balance stage. China's exports have continued to grow strongly. China and the US are expected to negotiate again at the end of October or early November to discuss whether to extend the tariff exemption period. After the counter - seasonal strength of exports in the third quarter, there may be pressure in the fourth quarter [59]. Overseas Situation - US inflation remained resilient in August, and high - frequency data in September showed that it may continue to be resilient. Although Fed officials mentioned preventive rate cuts, the financial market still maintains an optimistic expectation of Fed rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with a total cut of about 50bp, at the points of October and December. The probability of a rate cut in October has increased to a high level of 92.5%, and the probability in December is also as high as 81.4%. The end - of - year interest rate after rate cuts is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. If the core inflation remains around 2.8%, the real interest rate is expected to drop to 1%, which will be beneficial to risk assets [66]. Other Analyses Valuation - The stock - bond risk premium was 2.56% last month, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous month, at the 43.9% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 3.42%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous month, at the 16.8% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.8%, 86.7%, 98.9%, and 84.4% quantiles of the past five years respectively, and their relative valuations were not low. The valuation quantiles changed by - 3.7%, 2.4%, 4.5%, and 1.9% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of each broad - based index continued to decline [68][70]. Quantitative Diagnosis - According to the seasonal law analysis, the stock market is in a stage of seasonal volatile rise and structural differentiation in October. The cyclical style is dominant, and the growth style generally fluctuates at a high level. Overall, the stock market has a good profit - making effect in October, and the style is easy to switch. Considering the high valuation of the growth style and the bullish macro - policy expectation in October, attention should be paid to the supplementary rise of the cyclical style and the opportunity of the growth style switching to AI applications. Buy IF and IH on sharp drops, and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for IC and IM [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month economic data was generally below expectations, showing a weak - recovery pattern of "stable production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which confirmed the "weak demand + low inflation" fundamental for the bond market. The risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. It was suggested to seize the adjustment window in the third quarter and gradually allocate bonds after the adjustment [1]. - Short - term concerns included changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, and the effect of policies like fiscal discounts on private - sector financing demand [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Demand - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities showed differentiated performance. In Beijing and Shenzhen, it increased week - on - week, while in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, it decreased [2][12]. - Consumption: Automobile consumption decreased week - on - week. The box office of movies decreased week - on - week but was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased week - on - week, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased [2][38]. 3.2 Production - Mid - and upstream: The operating rates of rebar, PTA, and polyester filament decreased, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased [3][47]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased, but the latter was still at a seasonal high [3][47]. 3.3 Investment - Rebar: Apparent consumption decreased, but the price increased week - on - week [4][64]. - Cement: The price decreased week - on - week, while the shipping rate and inventory ratio increased [4][64]. 3.4 Trade - Export: Port throughput increased, while the comprehensive CCFI index decreased. The BDI index increased week - on - week [5][75]. - Import: The comprehensive CICFI index decreased by 1.2% week - on - week [5][75]. 3.5 Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index increased by 0.7% week - on - week. Vegetable prices increased, while egg, pork, and fruit prices decreased [6][86]. - PPI: The Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.2% week - on - week. Brent crude oil and COMEX gold prices decreased, while LME copper prices increased. The commodity futures market was stable with differentiated performance among varieties [6][91]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 18 - 22, 2025), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds was 765.2 billion yuan, with a net financing of 495.2 billion yuan [7][110]. - As of August 15, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year exceeded 95%, that of new general bonds was 72.0%, and that of new special bonds was 64.5% [7][112][117]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The Q2 monetary policy report emphasized implementing and refining a moderately loose monetary policy, including maintaining sufficient liquidity, matching financing and money supply with economic growth targets, and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices [122][123]. - Multiple policies were introduced in the week, including fiscal subsidy policies for consumer loans, tax policies for express delivery services, and real - estate policies in some regions [123][124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in July 2025 was generally below expectations, with the three major indicators declining in resonance, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable industrial production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", indicating insufficient domestic effective demand [1][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data include seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy [2][8] - For the bond market, the economic data in July confirmed the fundamental main line of "weak demand + low inflation", and the risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, as well as the effect of policies like fiscal interest subsidies on private - sector financing demand [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Economic Data: Structural Pressures under Weak Recovery - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, that of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 3.2%, and that of manufacturing investment was 6.2% [3][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data are seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy. The resilience of external demand in July exceeded expectations, but there was still uncertainty in external demand in the second half of the year [2][8][9] 3.2 Industrial Production Maintains Resilience, High - tech Chain Continues to Lead - In July, industrial production still had resilience. The year - on - year growth rate of added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in July was 5.8%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][11] - In terms of industries, the year - on - year growth rates of the ferrous metal processing and transportation equipment industries in July increased significantly compared with the previous month, while those of the automobile, metal products, and food industries decreased. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.3% year - on - year, respectively 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large - scale industrial added value [15] - In terms of specific products, the output growth rates of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles were remarkable, with year - on - year growth rates of 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% respectively [15] 3.3 Consumption Growth Slows, Policy Dividend Effect Weakens Marginally - In July, the growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. The total retail sales of social consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, the lowest increase this year and lower than market expectations [17] - On one hand, the driving effect of subsidy policies weakened. The year - on - year growth rates of home appliances, automobiles, furniture, and cultural office supplies supported by policies declined significantly compared with the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of automobiles turned negative. On the other hand, the weak catering consumption reflected insufficient consumer confidence. The year - on - year growth rate of catering revenue above the quota increased slightly to 1.1%, still at a relatively low level this year [4][20] - Recently, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with the central finance bearing 90%. The effect of this policy on credit scale and social retail sales growth remains to be observed [4][22] 3.4 Manufacturing Stabilizes, Infrastructure Supports, Real Estate Hits Bottom - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The investment structure showed a three - track operation pattern of "manufacturing stabilization, infrastructure support, and real estate drag" [23] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2%. The "Two New" work promoted the rapid growth of equipment purchase investment. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of investment in equipment, tools, and utensils was 15.2%, 13.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation might decline, and the demand for entity credit was still insufficient [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 3.2%. The construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects remained relatively fast, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment was expected to play a "ballast stone" role in the third quarter. However, the high - temperature and rainy weather in July affected outdoor construction and dragged down the growth rate of infrastructure investment [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, continuing to be deeply adjusted. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened. In the second half of the year, real estate relaxation policies still needed to be actively implemented, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering housing loan interest rates, reducing down - payment ratios, and increasing real estate acquisitions [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - In August, new home transaction expectations remained stable at low levels due to supply constraints, with cities like Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Changsha showing slight increases [1][14]. Supply Overview - In August, supply in 28 key cities dropped by 40% year-on-year, returning to the second-lowest level of the year, with all first-tier cities under pressure except Guangzhou, which saw a 13% increase [4][5][7]. - The overall supply volume was the second-lowest of the year, with a total of 4.76 million square meters expected to be supplied, a 26% decrease month-on-month and a 38% decrease year-on-year [5][7]. - First-tier cities saw a significant decline in supply, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing over 90% drops in some cases, while Guangzhou was the only city to show growth [7][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is primarily focused on improvement needs, with 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvement, and 19% for high-end products [8][11]. - Over 70% of cities have their main supply concentrated in urban areas, with cities like Jinan and Wuxi showing a significant increase in high-end product supply [8][11]. Market Predictions - New home transaction volumes are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines to within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to intensify, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai likely to see a temporary decline in transactions due to a shortage of quality supply [15][17]. - Some second-tier cities, such as Tianjin, Suzhou, and Changsha, may experience a phase of recovery, particularly with the introduction of new residential products [15][17]. Transaction Expectations - Expected transaction changes for August indicate a mixed outlook, with Beijing and Shanghai likely to see declines, while cities like Guangzhou and Nanning may experience slight increases [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, with the issuance scale possibly reaching its peak in the third quarter. The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds may further shrink, while the expansion of industrial bonds and science - and technology innovation bonds will dominate the supply. The yield of the bond market may continue the downward trend, and the credit spread may still have room for compression. Investors are advised to dig into the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, pay attention to market fluctuations, and focus on investment opportunities in the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond field [5][6][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - half Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.1.1 Primary Market - **Overall issuance situation**: The total issuance of credit bonds increased moderately, with a net financing scale of 971.083 billion yuan, showing a mild recovery. The issuance interest rate first rose and then fell, remaining at a low level. The term structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of medium - and long - term varieties increasing. The issuance scale of medium - term notes continued to expand, and the issuance scale of corporate bonds exceeded that of ultra - short - term financing for the first time [5][7][12]. - **Industry differences**: The issuance of industrial bonds expanded significantly, with a scale of 4.26 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of 1.11 trillion yuan. Urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 120.004 billion yuan, and the net outflow situation was obvious from March to June [17]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance scale of innovative varieties of credit bonds expanded significantly, reaching 1.090689 trillion yuan. The issuance scale of science - and technology innovation bonds increased explosively, reaching 879.619 billion yuan, and the scale of green - labeled bonds also continued to expand [24]. - **Issuer structure**: The credit bond financing still showed obvious subject stratification. Central and state - owned enterprises dominated, while the private enterprise bond financing achieved marginal improvement. The issuance scale of private enterprise credit bonds was 346.661 billion yuan, with a net financing of 337.27 billion yuan [27][28]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - **Trading activity**: The trading activity of credit bonds declined, and the trading scale of short - term financing bonds decreased significantly. The total trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market decreased by 8.89% compared with last year to 27.64 trillion yuan [36]. - **Yield trend**: The bond market yield first fluctuated and then stabilized. The "asset shortage" pattern generally continued. The yield of treasury bonds and medium - and short - term notes mostly increased slightly compared with the beginning of the year [38][40]. - **Credit spread**: The credit spread mostly narrowed. The credit spread of medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed by 2 - 68bp, and most of the inter - grade spreads also narrowed [43]. - **Industry spread**: The spreads of all industries narrowed comprehensively. The real estate industry still had the highest spread, but it narrowed compared with the first quarter. The spreads of industries such as construction and automobiles narrowed significantly [45][46]. 3.2 Outlook and Strategy Suggestions for the Second Half of 2025 3.2.1 Financing Outlook - The credit bond issuance is expected to continue expanding, and the issuance scale may reach its peak in the third quarter. The issuance scale for the whole year is predicted to be about 16.3 - 16.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of about 3% - 6%. The credit spread may reach its lowest point in the third quarter, but there is a possibility of an "up - after - down" reversal in interest rates in the fourth quarter [48][49]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate Trend - The bond market yield may continue the downward trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.4% - 1.7%. The credit spread of credit bonds may still have room for compression [51][53]. 3.2.3 Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to further explore the investment value of high - grade credit bonds, screen individual bonds with good credit quality and room for spread compression, and pay attention to market fluctuations for trading gains. Specific investment fields include the consumption field, stable industries, and science - and technology innovation bond fields [54][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff measures have triggered risk aversion in the market, with the US stock market falling, the US dollar index rising, and gold prices rebounding while copper prices weakening [2]. - The domestic economic fundamentals continue the pattern of "low inflation, weak recovery", and the A - share market may maintain a pattern of shrinking - volume shock adjustment in the short term [3]. - Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the prices of precious metals may fluctuate more significantly in the short term, and the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and other metals may face downward pressure in the short term [4][6][8]. - The prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may enter a shock pattern in the short term, and the price of nickel may be weakly volatile [15][17][19]. - The oil price is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the steel price and iron ore price may be in a shock pattern [20][21][23]. - The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil may be in a shock pattern in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump signed an executive order to postpone the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9 to August 1 and notified 14 countries of significant tariff increases. The market risk - appetite declined significantly, the US stock market fell nearly 1%, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.38%, and the US dollar index showed strength [2]. - Domestic: The economic fundamentals continue the "low - inflation, weak - recovery" pattern. The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment, and the bond market is affected by supply - side issuance increments and real - estate policy expectations [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices recovered their decline due to Trump's tariff increase on Japan and South Korea. COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. Tariff uncertainty may increase short - term price volatility [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper fell from a high level due to tariff disturbances. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market was inactive, and the LME inventory rebounded. The US tariff increase on Japan and South Korea and other factors may lead to a short - term correction of copper prices [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices adjusted from a high level due to tariff concerns and an increase in warehouse receipts. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and short - term prices may be under pressure [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices were in a strong - biased shock. The spot prices at home and abroad rebounded, and the futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased. However, supply surplus and rigid consumption may limit the upward space in the medium term [10]. Zinc - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar and accelerated inventory accumulation. The supply was stable and at a high level, and downstream orders were insufficient in the off - season [11]. Lead - Lead prices had limited corrections supported by the expectation of improved consumption. Although there was an expectation of inventory accumulation, the overall inventory level was not high [12]. Tin - Tin prices corrected from a high level. The supply increased marginally as refineries resumed production, and the downstream was in the off - season with insufficient purchases at high prices [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply side was weak, and the demand side was mixed. Policy support enhanced market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals may limit the upward trend [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices may correct in the short term. The price increase boosted supply, the market inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot market was relatively cold [17][18]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. The tariff exemption period was approaching, and the macro - level was uncertain. The cost pressure of nickel - iron plants was not relieved, and stainless steel was sluggish [19]. Crude Oil - Oil prices were weakly volatile. The geopolitical risk was gradually subsiding, and OPEC +'s production - increase plan was accelerating, but the peak consumption season supported the current fundamentals [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel prices were in a shock pattern. The supply - demand data was stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slowly accumulating. The market was affected by Trump's tariff measures [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were in a shock - adjustment pattern. The arrival at ports increased, and the overseas shipment decreased. The demand from blast furnaces in Tangshan was weakening [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal may be in a shock pattern. The US soybean crop rating was good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The trade concern re - emerged [24][25]. Palm Oil - Palm oil prices were relatively resistant to decline. The trade concern re - emerged, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the early days of July, providing support on the demand side [26][27]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the trading data of various metal futures contracts on July 7, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [28]. Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and other metals, such as inventory, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price differentials [30][33][35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

Market Overview - A-shares showed a strong overall performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.86% to 3403.95 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.64% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears balanced in the short term, with over 2300 stocks rising and more than 2800 stocks falling [1] Tariff Negotiations - The recent US-China tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, with significant tariff reductions announced, including the cancellation of a 91% retaliatory tariff and a temporary exemption of 24% of the equal tariffs within 90 days [1][2] - Despite the positive news, A-shares did not experience significant gains, possibly due to the already repaired market conditions and macroeconomic status [1][3] Economic Conditions - China's economy is currently in a weak recovery phase, necessitating a cautious approach to investment direction [3][4] - The high tariffs previously imposed acted like a "trade ban," and while the recent tariff reductions are a positive step, they do not signify the end of the trade war [3] Sector Performance - The securities sector led the A-share market, with the Securities ETF rising by 3.48% and trading volume exceeding 3.8 billion yuan [9][11] - In Q1 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported a total revenue of 125.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, and a net profit of 52.18 billion yuan, up 83.48% [11] - The financial technology sector is expected to benefit from recent policies aimed at stabilizing the market and encouraging long-term investments [13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as midstream manufacturing, home appliances, robotics, and AI, which have shown promising performance [6][7] - The current valuation of the securities sector presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on potential earnings recovery [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing proactive adjustments while awaiting operational improvements. The white liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, with significant pressure on mid-range and premium products. The company is actively adjusting its operational strategies and strengthening its management [7][8] - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 28.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.37% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, a decline of 52.17% year-on-year [7][8] - The company plans to focus on the Jiangsu and surrounding markets to build a solid foundation for growth, as revenue from both domestic and external markets declined [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a projected total cash dividend of at least 7 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dynamic dividend yield of over 6.5% [7][8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to decline from 28.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 24.47 billion yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from 6.67 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.46 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 4.43 yuan in 2024 to 3.62 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase thereafter [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 18.93 for 2025, 18.27 for 2026, and 17.52 for 2027, indicating a potential for value recovery in the coming years [1][8]