Group 1 - The perception of Moutai's price floor is high among consumers, leading them to believe that prices will not drop below certain levels, such as 1500 yuan or 1000 yuan [1][4] - Many consumers purchase Moutai not for consumption but as a status symbol or investment, indicating its luxury brand status [3][5] - The demand for high-end liquor has significantly decreased due to changing consumption scenarios, particularly in business contexts, which has affected the overall market for premium liquor [5][12] Group 2 - The current market environment shows a lack of confidence in the future of high-end liquor, with excess production capacity and reduced consumer demand [6][12] - Liquor manufacturers face two potential strategies: controlling supply to stabilize prices or increasing market supply while lowering prices and quality [8][9] - Historical examples illustrate that many once-premium liquor brands have transitioned to lower-tier products, raising concerns about the long-term value of current high-end offerings [11][12] Group 3 - The recommendation for consumers is to assess their actual need for liquor rather than purchasing for speculative purposes, especially given the current market dynamics [12][13] - If Moutai's price were to drop significantly, it could lead to a shift in its perception as a premium product, impacting its use in high-end business settings [12][13]

直播电商正成为刺激新消费的重要力量。 近日，国家市场监督管理总局发展研究中心发布的《2025直播电商行业发展白皮书》中主要内容显示，作为近年来中国发展最快的创新商业模式之一，直 播电商已进入新探索阶段。据社科院课题组估算，2024年直播电商商品交易总额超4.5万亿元，占网络零售额近三分之一，贡献了电子商务增量的80%。 作为网络零售新业态，直播电商如何刺激国内消费市场潜力？国家发展和改革委员会经济研究院经济体制与管理研究所研究员王琛伟认为，直播带货是由 数据驱动、平台支撑、线上线下（300959）协同，将"直播"和"卖货"合二为一的网络新型交易模式。锚定客户需求、提升用户体验，精准推送个性化的直 播内容，直接刺激消费者购买欲望，激发出强大的消费需求潜力。"本质上是技术创新带来的新型商业场景，是新质生产力在交换、消费领域颠覆性改 造、提升传统商业模式的重要体现。" 直播购物常态化，真实内容场景"种草"消费者 消费者通过直播电商购买商品已成为一种常态化的购物方式，浏览视频、观看直播时"被种草"等新场景逐渐成为消费增长贡献的主力军。据国家统计局数 据，2024年，全国网上零售额比上年增长7.2%；其中，实物商品网上 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

新华社北京7月9日电 题：CPI同比由降转升 部分行业价格呈企稳回升态势——透视6月份物价数据 新华社记者潘洁、王雨萧 国家统计局9日发布数据显示，6月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由降转升，扣除食品和能源价格 的核心CPI同比继续回升；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）虽环比降幅与上月相同，但部分行业价格呈 企稳回升态势，供需结构总体有所改善。 "6月份，以伊冲突导致原油潜在供应风险上升，削弱了主要产油国增产带来的影响，加之进入夏季后， 油品上下游消费随着季节性因素恢复，战略储备采购带来非常规需求增长，国际油价触底回升，推动国 内汽油价格环比上涨。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬说。 食品价格方面，受高温、降雨较常年同期偏多等因素影响，6月份，食品价格环比下降0.4%，降幅低于 季节性水平0.5个百分点，其中淡水鱼和鲜菜价格分别环比上涨4.3%和0.7%；同比下降0.3%，降幅比上 月收窄0.1个百分点。 随着促消费政策效应持续显现，6月份，文娱耐用消费品、家用纺织品和家用器具价格同比分别上涨 2.0%、2.0%和1.0%；汽车价格降幅逐步收窄，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格同比分别下降3.4%和 2.5%， ...

2025 年 07 月 08 日 工业生产趋缓，地产成交趋弱 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 供需：工业生产趋缓，消费需求趋稳 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置回落。最近两周（6 月 22 日至 7 月 5 日），石油沥 青装置开工率、水泥发运率季节性位置重新回落至历史中低位，磨机运转率进一 步下行至历史低位。基建、房建项目水泥出库量保持历史同期低位，资金方面， 建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，部分化工与汽车钢胎产业开工率回落。最近两周，工业开工整体 景气度仍处于历史中高位，但部分化工与汽车钢胎开工率出现回落。化工链中聚 酯切片开工率回落至历史低位，汽车半钢胎开工率回落至历史中位，焦化企业开 工率处于历史最低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求偏弱，汽车、家电需求波动运行。最近两周，建筑需求弱于 历史同期，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比波动运行， 中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中位，义乌小 ...

高房价阴影下：中国居民储蓄率的断崖式下跌及其社会影响 中国居民素来有"爱存钱"的传统，储蓄率长期高于全球平均水平，上世纪90年代甚至一度超过50%。然而，这一根深蒂固的印象如今已被彻底打破。2024 年，中国居民储蓄率已跌至24.3%的历史新低，与2020年的45.7%相比，呈现令人震惊的断崖式下跌。央行数据显示，近半数受访者几乎没有存款或存款不 足一万元，这意味着"无存款"群体已占据相当比例。 是什么原因导致了如此剧烈的变化？答案指向高房价及其引发的连锁反应。 高昂的房价催生了巨额房贷，成为压垮大多数家庭储蓄能力的最后一根稻草。 央行数据显示，我国户均家庭总负债高达51.2万元，其中房贷占比超过80%，达到惊人的41.8万元。这不仅体现了居民资产配置的严重失衡，过度依赖房地 产，也与美国家庭房地产占比约33.2%，金融资产占比约65.7%的结构形成鲜明对比。 截至2024年底，个人住房贷款余额达到41.7万元，同比增长5.6%，平 均每个房贷家庭每月需将42.3%的收入用于还贷，远超国际30%的警戒线。一位网友的倾诉或许能更生动地展现这一现状："每月工资7500元，房贷就要还 4500元，剩下的钱只够维持基 ...

全球首份中国鱼 胶营养手册正式 发布_南方+_南 方plus 日前，由国家中 药材产业技术体 系岗位科学家杜 冰团队联合南方 农村报共同编制 的《中国鱼胶营 养手册》正式发 布。 作为全球首份系 统性梳理鱼胶 （花胶）文化与 营养的权威指 南，该手册将为 消费者提供科 学、全面的鱼胶 食用指导，助力 传统滋补食材的 现代化消费升 级。 鱼胶是我国"海 味八珍"之一， 拥有近两千年食 用与药用历史。 近年来，全球健 康消费需求升级 推动鱼胶产业稳 步扩张，国内市 场更是在政策引 导与技术创新驱 动下，实现从原 料加工到品质管 控的全面提升。 在此背景下， 《中国鱼胶营养 手册》应运而 生。 营养手册内容涵 盖鱼胶的前世今 生、营养价值、 抗衰功效、饮食 文化、食用方法 等五大核心板 块，通过现代科 学视角解析其核 心营养成分—— 包括1型养肤、6 型养宫、12型养 骨等多型胶原蛋 白，揭示其内源 抗衰等健康价 值。 针对消费者关心 的食用痛点，营 养手册介绍了干 制花胶的泡发方 法及保存技巧， 并聚焦行业创 新，展现了即食 鲜炖鱼胶等多元 化产品形态，推 动传统滋补食材 向现代食品转 型。 作为牵头的编制 方之 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yongor is strategically divesting financial assets, with significant sales amounting to 4.175 billion yuan, representing 10.13% of the audited net assets as of the end of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yongor reported total revenue of 14.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, while net profit decreased by 19.41% to 2.767 billion yuan [1] - The company has experienced a decline in net profit for four consecutive years since 2021, with a 15.13% decrease in net profit excluding non-recurring items [1] - Cash recovery from financial investments reached 1.796 billion yuan in 2024, with investment business net profit at 2.209 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 97.7% of total net profit [2] Investment Portfolio - As of the end of 2024, Yongor's financial assets measured at fair value totaled 11.388 billion yuan, with stock investments amounting to 8.829 billion yuan [2] - The company holds shares in various listed companies, including CITIC Limited, CITIC Bank, and others, with cumulative fair value changes for these stocks showing significant losses [2] Business Segments - The fashion segment generated revenue of 6.799 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 431 million yuan, reflecting declines of 6.94% and 43.90%, respectively [3] - The main brand, YOUNGOR, accounted for 90.46% of the fashion segment's revenue, totaling 5.187 billion yuan [3] - In the real estate sector, Yongor reported a pre-sale revenue of 3.331 billion yuan, a decline of 69.03%, while recognized revenue increased by 16.20% to 7.471 billion yuan [3] Recent Trends - In Q1 2025, Yongor's revenue was 2.795 billion yuan, down 15.6% year-on-year, with net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items decreasing by 13.33% and 12.88%, respectively [3]

锡价回调，部分下游企业开始采购补库，现货升水维持700元/吨，国内库存小幅下降，海外去库明显。技 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 术面，持仓低位多空谨慎，面临MA60阻力，关注257000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考25.7-26.4。 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 261880 | 1320 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32690 | 590 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 130 | -40 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 17549 | -985 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 1459 | -1007 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2175 | -25 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6965 | -142 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) ...

2025 年 06 月 23 日 工业生产仍有韧性 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 供需：工业生产仍强，消费需求分化 1.建筑开工：水泥出库保持历史低位。最近两周（6 月 8 日至 6 月 21 日），石油沥 青装置开工率、水泥发运率季节性位置处于历史中位，磨机运转率处于历史低位。 基建、房建项目水泥出库量保持历史同期低位，资金方面，建筑工地资金到位率 同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，整体仍有韧性。最近两周，工业开工整体景气度仍处于历史中高 位。化工链开工率整体处于历史同期中高位，汽车钢胎开工率有所回落但保持历 史中高位，焦化企业开工率表现略弱。 3.需求端，建筑需求偏弱，汽车、家电需求波动运行。最近两周，建筑需求弱于 历史同期，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比波动运行， 中国轻纺城成交量处于同期历史低位，义乌小商品价格指数有所回升，618 影响 下，多数家电线上销售额高于 2024 年同期， ...