1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to show a downward trend in oscillation. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise in oscillation. The lead price may decline further. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation. The tin price is expected to be weak. The nickel price is expected to weaken in the short - term but has strong support at the bottom in the medium - term. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by resource - side issues, and the future trend needs further observation. The price of alumina is recommended to be observed. The stainless - steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term [3][6][9][13][14][16][19][22][25][29] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract closed up 0.17% at $12,141 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 95,490 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 425 to 360,250 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 52,000 to 359,000 tons, and the daily warrant continued to decrease by 9,000 to 237,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly narrowed to 95 yuan per ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong rose to 100 yuan per ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 100 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 790 yuan per ton, widening compared to the previous period [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The repeated Middle - East situation suppresses the copper price on the sentiment side. The tight supply of copper ore remains, and the domestic inventory is desirably reduced after the copper price decline. The supply and substitution of scrap copper are reduced, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price may show a downward trend in oscillation. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 94,000 - 97,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars per ton [3] Aluminum Market Information - The repeated Middle - East situation pushed up the crude - oil price, and the rising energy cost pushed up the aluminum price. On Friday, the LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.92% at $3,284 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,085 yuan per ton. The position of the SHFE weighted aluminum contract decreased by 2,000 to 556,000 lots, and the futures warrant increased by 3,000 to 408,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places slightly increased, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods on Friday decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 90 yuan per ton, and the buying sentiment was relatively positive. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 to 421,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M premium rose to $61.2 per ton [4] Strategy Viewpoint - The negotiation between the US and Iran continues, and the military action persists. The crude - oil price remains strong, and the market risk preference is still under pressure. The aluminum price is supported by energy costs and supply disturbances on the one hand and suppressed by sentiment on the other hand. Overseas aluminum - plant maintenance and production cuts will bring substantial production reduction, and the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend increased supply concerns. The overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream operating rate continues to increase, and the processing fee of aluminum rods returns to a relatively normal level, which helps inventory digestion. The aluminum price is expected to rise in the short - term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,800 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,220 - 3,400 US dollars per ton [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2605 contract closed up 0.88% at 22,960 yuan per ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position increased to 16,800 lots, and the trading volume was 10,600 lots. The trading volume increased, and the warrant decreased by 2,400 to 36,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2605 contract and the AD2605 contract was 975 yuan per ton, slightly widening compared to the previous period. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area increased, and the import price of ADC12 rose by 100 yuan per ton. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 7,900 to 45,800 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places slightly increased to 31,300 tons [8] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy has recovered. The demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production downstream. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and tight raw - material supply, the price is expected to rise in oscillation in the short - term [9] Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.57% at 16,553 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 113,100 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,907.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,325 yuan per ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,325 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead - ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan per ton. The LME lead - ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead - ingot cancellation warrant was 14,300 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 135 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.256, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was 591.16 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to March 23 [11] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead concentrate has increased, and the production of primary smelting has remained stable. The visible inventory of lead waste has increased, and the production of recycled lead has recovered. The inventories of primary and recycled lead - ingot factories have decreased, and the social inventory of lead ingots has also decreased. The downstream battery enterprises stock up at low prices, and the low operating rate of recycled - smelting enterprises provides short - term support for the spot market. However, the current high SHFE - LME price ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in exported batteries. The high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. There is a possibility that the lead price will decline further [12][13] Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.33% at 23,377 yuan per ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 177,500 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, the LME 3S zinc rose 33.5 to $3,105.5 per ton compared to the previous day, and the total position was 210,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,210 yuan per ton. The basis in Shanghai was - 60 yuan per ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 90 yuan per ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was - 30 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc - ingot futures inventory was 95,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan per ton. The LME zinc - ingot inventory was 115,700 tons, and the LME zinc - ingot cancellation warrant was 5,700 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 16.14 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was 64.55 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.09, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 2,327.99 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 26 was 214,400 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons compared to March 23. After the continuous decline of SHFE zinc, the downstream actively replenished inventory at low prices [14] Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased marginally, the import TC of zinc concentrate has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stopped falling and stabilized. There was a large - scale delivery of LME zinc again, and the structural risk has been further reduced. After the zinc price declined, the downstream replenished inventory to a certain extent, and the zinc price stopped falling and stabilized in the short - term. However, the basis and monthly price difference of SHFE zinc have not increased significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent purchases is expected to be limited. The current high oil price has triggered a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metal sector is under pressure as a whole. The zinc price has entered a downward trend and may decline further after a wide - range consolidation at the current price level [14] Tin Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 362,460 yuan per ton, a 3.71% increase from the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a moderate recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in the operating rate is more obvious. Although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is relatively gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in actual terminal purchases is still relatively limited, and there has not been a substantial recovery. Last week, the tin price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving the inventory to significantly decrease. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared to the previous period [15] Strategy Viewpoint - Although the tin supply has improved marginally compared to before the Spring Festival, it is still constrained by the tight raw - material supply. Under the pressure on both the ore and recycled - material sides, the release of smelting - end production capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand has improved marginally, and the short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. The downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for the tin price. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, the global risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the tin price will be weak. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 320,000 - 390,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 49,000 US dollars per ton [16] Nickel Market Information - On March 27, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 137,100 yuan per ton, a 0.91% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were weakly stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 5,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton compared to the previous day. On the cost side, the ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $71.64 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was reported at $32.5 per wet ton, with the price remaining unchanged from the previous day. The price of ferronickel slightly decreased. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,083 yuan per nickel point, remaining unchanged from the previous day [18] Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term US inflation expectation, and risk assets are under pressure as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will also weaken. However, in the medium - term, the improvement trend of the global nickel - element supply - demand situation is certain, and the nickel price has strong support at the bottom, with limited downward space. Short - selling is not recommended. The operating range of the SHFE nickel price this week is expected to be 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. In terms of operation, it is recommended to sell high and buy low and mainly conduct range operations [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On March 27, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium - carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 159,916 yuan, a 2.35% increase from the previous working day and a 10.35% increase within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 156,000 - 164,700 yuan, and the average price increased by 3,700 yuan (+2.36%) compared to the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium - carbonate quotation was 153,000 - 161,500 yuan, and the average price increased by 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, a 7.15% increase from the previous closing price and a 17.09% increase within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,320 US dollars per ton, and the average price increased by 1.13% compared to the previous day and 7.71% within the week [21] Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the contradiction in the lithium - carbonate market is concentrated on the resource side. The short - term pressure of domestic lithium - salt spot shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are disturbances in major resource - producing areas such as Jiangxi, Zimbabwe, and Australia, and long - term concerns have increased. The growth momentum of domestic lithium - carbonate production remains unchanged, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. However, whether the de - stocking trend has been completely reversed still needs to be observed. On the ore side, if the resumption of lithium - ore production in Jiangxi is postponed, the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral - export ban fails, and Australia reduces production due to energy - supply problems, the sustainability of domestic lithium - salt supply will be under pressure. The lithium - battery demand is expected to remain strong. Multiple new car models will be launched in the second quarter, and the overdraft effect of electric - vehicle sales may be alleviated. There are expectations of new orders for commercial vehicles and household energy storage. In the future

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In April, the ferroalloy market is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Energy costs support the prices, leading to high - level oscillations. For ferrosilicon, the supply is currently low but is expected to rise due to profit recovery, and the demand (hot metal production) is on the rise. For silicomanganese, the supply is relatively stable with some new capacity coming online and potential self - imposed production cuts, and the demand (steel production) is expected to seasonally rebound. The high - level crude oil prices support the cost of manganese ore [2][3][72][74] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply is currently low, but with the recent sharp rise in spot prices and profit recovery, production is expected to increase. In April, hot metal production is still in an upward channel, so the fundamentals are expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the ferrosilicon price to oscillate at a high level [2][72][74] - **Silicomanganese**: The production of sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and some new capacity has been put into operation, with overall stable supply. Some industry associations have called for self - imposed production cuts, but the actual implementation needs attention. Steel production is expected to continue its seasonal rebound. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [2][74] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, ferroalloy futures prices rose sharply due to multiple emergencies. The military strike on Iran by the US and Israel in late February led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and an increase in the prices of international coal and natural gas. As energy - intensive products, the valuation of ferroalloys also increased. In late March, Hurricane Narelle hit the main manganese ore shipping port in Australia, raising the expectation of short - term supply shortage [7] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand in April - **Supply**: In February, the output of silicomanganese (187 enterprises) was 774,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In late March, some new capacity was put into operation, and the output in March is expected to increase slightly. The output of ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) in February was 394,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and the output in March is also expected to increase. As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 27.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%, and the daily output was 102,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 32.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%, and the daily output was 191,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [27] - **Demand**: Affected by the temporary environmental protection restrictions on steel mills in the northern region during the Two Sessions, hot metal production first decreased and then increased in March. As of the week of March 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons. In April, according to the blast furnace maintenance plan, steel mills are still in the seasonal resumption of production trend, and hot metal production is expected to maintain a slight upward trend. Overall, the situation of increasing supply and demand is expected in April. Although the inventory inflection point of steel has appeared and the apparent demand has continued to rise, the slow destocking of hot - rolled coils may limit the height of steel mill复产 [27][30] 3.2.3 Inventory Situation - In March, the overall inventory of alloy plants was slightly relieved. As of the week of March 27, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 54,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 372,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. Generally, the ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while the silicomanganese inventory is relatively high, and high inventory is still the main pressure suppressing the price increase. For downstream inventory, as the hot metal production of steel mills gradually recovers, the available days of raw material inventory have slightly decreased month - on - month. However, due to the relatively low absolute value of steel profits and the high level of available days in the past three years, steel mills are expected to mainly maintain just - in - time procurement in April [42] 3.2.4 Cost Situation - Since the large - scale strike on Iran by the US and Israel at the end of February, the prices of energy such as crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply, and the international steam coal price has also risen, driving the domestic steam coal price to stop falling and rebound. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the alloy price. For manganese ore, the port inventory is slightly higher than that of last year but lower than the average of the past four years. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [58] 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and demand, and energy costs support the bottom. Overall, the price will oscillate at a high level [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell put options on rallies [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the price rebound. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although short - term factors support the price, the fundamental driving force is weakening, and the market may face a downward adjustment. However, in the short term, it may be affected by the situation and be oscillating strongly [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened lower and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure is around the 10 - day moving average of 1090, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band of 1040. The trading volume increased by 682,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 33,078 lots. The intraday high was 1094, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1082, up 23 yuan/ton or 2.17% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - Market situation: The real - estate data last month continued to be sluggish, and the recent recovery of downstream demand was also lower than expected. The spot market still faces the pressure of high inventory and weak demand. However, due to the geopolitical situation, the cost of energy and raw materials has risen sharply [1]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the recovery of terminal demand [1]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term (slightly stronger) oscillation signal. The pressure is around the upper Bollinger Band of 1290, and the short - term support is around the 10 - day moving average of 1240. The trading volume increased by 626,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 77,032 lots. The intraday high was 1266, the low was 1198, and the closing price was 1256, up 49 yuan/ton or 4.06% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - Inventory situation: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8116 million tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons or 2.28% compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 946,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons, and heavy soda ash was 864,800 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons [2]. - Market situation: The mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory in the soda ash industry has not improved. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market. However, due to the expected reduction of float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak [2]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to be affected by the situation and oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in international energy prices and whether the high inventory of soda ash can continue to be reduced [4].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East is significantly impacting global economic forecasts, with Goldman Sachs warning of the severe consequences of high energy costs on economic growth [2][7]. Group 1: Military Actions - On March 22, the Israeli Defense Forces initiated "large-scale" airstrikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, following the death of a senior commander from Hezbollah [3][4]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched retaliatory military operations, employing upgraded tactics and systems to target U.S. military bases and Israeli regions [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Goldman Sachs has revised down growth forecasts for major economies, including the U.S. and Eurozone, for 2026, while raising inflation expectations due to the ongoing crisis [7]. - The report highlights a significant loss in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, estimating a reduction of 17% of global supply, with current flow plummeting from 20 million barrels per day to 600,000 barrels per day, a 97% drop [8]. Group 3: Future Projections - If the disruptions continue, global GDP could decline by 0.9% and inflation could rise by 1.7% over a 60-day period, with significant tightening of financial conditions already observed [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the key variable in this crisis is not military actions but the timeline for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz [9].

Group 1 - The current borrowing environment is challenging due to high inflation risks and tight monetary policy, making good deals scarce, further exacerbated by the ongoing war in Iran [1] - U.S. mortgage rates have surged above 6.22% since the conflict began, highlighting the significant impact of geopolitical stress on the economy [2] - The relationship between mortgage rates and Treasury yields is crucial, as mortgage rates are more closely aligned with government debt than with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][6] Group 2 - Lenders increase mortgage rates in response to rising Treasury yields to manage duration risk and protect their profit margins [6] - The war in the Middle East has led to increased demand for Treasury bonds as a safe-haven asset, pushing yields up due to a heightened global risk premium [6] - Rising oil prices from the conflict are contributing to inflation concerns, which in turn drives Treasury yields higher as investors seek compensation for diminished purchasing power [7]

Core Viewpoint - Since early March, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to a significant increase in crude oil and chemical sectors, driven by rising energy costs and supply disruptions [3][7][34]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The first round of impact comes from direct disruptions in Middle Eastern exports, while the second round involves increased shipping costs due to interruptions in Asian crude oil supply, affecting refinery loads across Asia [3][7][34]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 43.5% of China's crude oil imports, poses a substantial risk to domestic oil and refinery supply [8][7]. - The supply impact varies by chemical product, with methanol and polyethylene being notably affected, while the overall supply reduction is estimated to exceed 15% for certain chemicals [7][12][34]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core influencing factor remains the contraction of supply, with a need to assess demand elasticity and potential delivery dynamics [3][12][34]. - Current estimates suggest that the reduction in Middle Eastern capacity and a 10% decrease in Asian refinery loads could significantly impact domestic supply levels [13][34]. - The demand elasticity for certain chemicals, such as pure benzene and styrene, remains high due to their downstream applications in high-value goods, which exhibit a greater tolerance for price increases [22][31][34]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to go long on pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol, with a focus on cost areas based on SC pricing [4][35]. - PX and PTA are highlighted as having greater rebound potential, while ethylene glycol's elasticity will depend on the evolution of supply issues [4][35]. - The overall assessment indicates that pure benzene, styrene, and PX have significant rebound potential, while ethylene glycol and chlor-alkali products are currently undervalued and may experience price corrections [32][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Crude oil and coking coal prices have fallen, causing steel prices to rise and then fall. Steel mill production remains stable, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. It is necessary to focus on the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report of the Two Sessions is basically in line with expectations, and the domestic demand expectation does not fluctuate much. The main focus is on the marginal changes in steel exports. Since the US - Iran conflict, steel exports have declined due to shipping disruptions. It is judged that steel prices will fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to the pressure levels of around 3150 yuan/ton for rebar and 3300 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated upward yesterday. Affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the iron ore market fluctuated more violently. In the short term, positive factors for iron ore are dominant, and geopolitical conflicts will further intensify market fluctuations. In terms of fundamentals, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the decline in Brazil and non - mainstream regions was significant. On the demand side, hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent. In the short term, iron ore prices will be boosted by geopolitical impacts and the unresolved BHP negotiation, and prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to observe in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coke and coking coal futures both showed a downward trend from high levels. For coke, the first round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was successfully implemented on March 6 and is expected to stabilize. The supply - demand situation is basically balanced in the short term. For coking coal, the price of coke was cut by mainstream steel mills on March 4 to reduce costs, and it is expected that the coke price will stabilize. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to view both coke and coking coal as oscillating, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 for coke and 1100 - 1250 for coking coal, and to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the silicon iron main contract fell sharply, and the silicon manganese main contract opened low and then recovered losses, both affected by geopolitical conflicts. For silicon iron, supply decreased slightly last week, with output cuts in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and increases in Qinghai and Gansu. For silicon manganese, supply decreased slightly, and the output absolute value is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. In terms of demand, iron - making water output decreased significantly during the Two Sessions but is expected to rise with the recovery of terminal demand. In the short term, steel exports to the Middle East will be blocked, but there may be an export substitution effect in the long term. It is recommended to observe the market and operate cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) showed different degrees of changes, with some prices remaining stable and some falling. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also decreased to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices remained unchanged, and the costs and profits of different steel products in different regions (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost, East China hot - rolled coil profit) changed. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 30, and the North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 40 [1]. Production - The total output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.1%, with an increase in electric - furnace output by 349.6% and a decrease in converter output by 0.5%. The hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 9.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 27.7%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 22.4%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 192.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 4.9% [1]. Iron - making Water Output - The daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) and the basis of 05 contracts showed different degrees of changes. The 5 - 9 spread and 9 - 1 spread also increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained stable, while the price of Brazilian mixed fines increased by 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.0% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 21.6%, the global shipment volume decreased by 13.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 18.4% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4%, the 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume increased by 4.2%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.2%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties (such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke) and futures contracts (05, 09) decreased to varying degrees. The coking profit increased by 24 [7]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained stable, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 3.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The output of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased [7]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%, and the port inventory increased by 3.0%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports decreased [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 1.6 to 0.7, an increase of 2.3 [7]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Futures and Spot - The silicon iron main contract price increased slightly, and the silicon manganese main contract price decreased. The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions decreased to varying degrees [8]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed slightly, and the production profits decreased significantly. For example, the production profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia decreased from 200 to 30, a decrease of 85.0% [8]. Supply - The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 57.6%, the arrival volume increased by 1.8%, and the port inventory decreased by 4.6%. The silicon iron output decreased by 2.1%, and the production enterprise's start - up rate decreased by 6.3% [8]. Demand - The silicon iron demand remained unchanged, the 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - making water output decreased by 2.4%, the blast - furnace start - up rate decreased by 3.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.1%, and the silicon manganese demand increased by 0.9% [8]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 5.9%, and the silicon manganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.8% [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of various non - ferrous metals, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty [1][2][7] - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing high inventory pressure and others being affected by production capacity changes and cost factors Summaries by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper increased positions and oscillated. The import price found support near the MA60 moving average, and the copper price rebounded. The risk - aversion sentiment due to the Middle East situation affected trading. The domestic SMM spot copper price dropped to 99,480 yuan, and the discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to shrink. The SMM social inventory increased by 1,700 tons to 578,900 tons. Uncertainties in the war situation and high visible inventory may lead the Shanghai copper price to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even the weekly line level [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sharply, with spot discounts in different regions. The domestic social inventory is at a high level in recent years, but the Middle East situation has increased overseas shortage concerns, showing an external - strong and internal - weak market. The aluminum price is volatile at a historical high, and the previous high level has resistance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between them is expected to widen under geopolitical risks. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly. The Middle East electrolytic aluminum production cut has a negative impact, and the soaring freight has increased the import cost, but the overall oversupply prospect remains unchanged. The alumina price rose sharply driven by funds, and after the volatility soared, selling call options can be considered [2] Zinc - With the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, and the LME zinc had insufficient rebound momentum, unable to strongly drive the domestic market. The SMM zinc social inventory continued to increase to 262,200 tons. The domestic road transportation has recovered, and the downstream start - up has gradually returned to normal. The low - level stocking willingness has increased, and the import ore TC has continued to decline. The performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season needs to be verified by inventory reduction, and it is currently in a high - level oscillation state, waiting for more directional signals [3] Lead - Recycled lead has been officially included in the delivery as a substitute, and the PB2703 contract has started to be implemented, reducing the delivery risk and effectively stabilizing the market fluctuation. The Shanghai lead market has entered a dual - pricing logic of primary and recycled lead, and the price center is expected to move down. However, the fixed discount of recycled lead to the primary lead delivery product is 150 yuan/ton, and the cost support of recycled lead is prominent when the lead price is low. After the festival, the downstream start - up has recovered quickly, and as the inventory raw materials are consumed, the downstream low - level stocking is expected to improve. The primary lead smelter's start - up is gradually recovering, and the SMM 1 lead has a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, and it is profitable to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of recycled lead smelters is mainly concentrated in mid - to late March, and the refined - scrap price difference is running at a low level of 50 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories are still at a high level, and the import window remains open. Under the dominance of oversupply, the Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate narrowly around the cost, with a price range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but the market trading was dull. The news about the Indonesian quota triggered speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continued to increase, the market confidence declined, and the trading was light. There was only a small amount of rigid - demand restocking, and the terminal downstream procurement was basically completed, with almost no substantial purchasing intention. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan, the import nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and the electrolytic nickel was at par. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was resistant to decline, and the high - nickel iron price was 1,031 yuan per line point. The upstream price rebounded and then faced resistance and回调. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for clarity [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions, and the downward trend tested the MA60 moving average again. The situation between the US, Israel, and Iran continued to heat up, the short - term oil price soared, which affected the global economic growth expectation and greatly dragged down the stock markets of Japan and South Korea centered on the semiconductor industry. The Gulf situation may also affect the investment rhythm of AI semiconductors. The previous upward trend was based on domestic small - metal rights and interests, while the current market is continuously evaluating the geopolitical situation. The price is still in a relatively high - price area. After the middle and downstream choose the right time for point - price stocking, the price may seek support at the weekly K - line level, such as 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded and reached a high level, but the market trading was dull. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase, and the strong spot and long - speculating positions are in the mainstream, with a fragile position structure. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, mainly because the downstream replenished inventory at the right time, the smelter has shown signs of unsalable products, the trader's confidence in domestic products has shaken, and the inventory in the middle - link is high, so there may be spot sales. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 1,970 US dollars, and the ore - end quotation has been flexibly adjusted downward. The short - term uncertainty of lithium carbonate is strong [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell, driven by the expected increase in energy costs due to the Middle East conflict. The SMM spot price of East China 553 silicon was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in the week were stable, except that the price of Taishu coke increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the news of the increase in the external - purchased electricity price of large eastern factories needs to be confirmed. The industrial silicon production in March is expected to be 345,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26%. The large factories in Xinjiang have resumed production this week, while the start - up in the southwest has remained stable. The weekly start - up of downstream organic silicon has increased, and the DMG price has risen; the start - up of primary aluminum alloy has declined due to the increase in aluminum price and increased wait - and - see sentiment; the polysilicon price has continued to fall, the inventory is high, and the production increase is limited. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 553,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons. The short - term price is driven by the macro - situation, and the volatility risk should be vigilant, maintaining an oscillating judgment [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose and then fell. The Middle East conflict has led to an expected increase in energy costs, and the increase in European oil and gas prices may increase the domestic photovoltaic procurement expectation. On the spot side, according to SMM data, the average price of N - type re -投料 has dropped to 48,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the post - festival start - up situation is lower than expected. The SMM - statistics polysilicon inventory has risen to 348,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons. The high - inventory state continues to suppress the price. The short - term market fluctuates under the influence of macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are still weak, and the rebound space is limited [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The European chemical industry is facing a systemic crisis due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy costs, coupled with stringent carbon emission and environmental policies, leading to a "death spiral" of high costs and low demand. This situation is expected to result in a wave of shutdowns in the basic olefins, aromatics, chlor-alkali, and liquid ammonia sectors over the next 3-5 years, significantly affecting the global supply-demand landscape [2] - In contrast, the Chinese chemical industry is positioned to absorb the market share vacated by Europe, benefiting from a virtuous cycle of capital expenditure, cost optimization, and demand growth. Chinese companies are expected to capitalize on two main opportunities: (1) domestic chemical leaders will benefit from the systematic exit of the European chemical industry; (2) domestic firms in sectors with high consumption/production shares in Europe will also gain from the local industry's exit [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as Sinopec, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Decline of European Chemical Industry - Europe has historically led the global chemical industry, but its market share has significantly declined from 16.4% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2023, while China's share increased from 34.0% to 43.1% during the same period [37][40] - The EU27 countries accounted for approximately 66% of the European chemical market, with Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands being the largest contributors [26] - The European chemical industry has seen a notable decrease in trade competitiveness, with exports dropping from 25% of global chemical exports in 2003 to 18% in 2023 [45] Section 2: Systemic Challenges in Europe - The European chemical industry is experiencing a significant decline in competitiveness due to high energy costs, stringent carbon policies, and regulatory burdens, leading to a lack of investment and innovation [90][92] - The energy cost for industrial users in the EU has more than doubled from 2008-2021 to 2022-2024, severely impacting the industry's profitability [106] - The industry is facing a wave of shutdowns, with approximately 20% of ethylene capacity expected to be closed over five years due to high operational costs and declining demand [78][84] Section 3: Opportunities for Chinese Chemical Industry - The Chinese chemical sector is benefiting from a favorable investment environment, with significant capital expenditures leading to optimized costs and increased demand [2] - Chinese companies are well-positioned to take over market share from Europe, particularly in sectors where European firms are exiting due to high costs and regulatory pressures [2] - The report highlights specific companies in China that are expected to thrive in this shifting landscape, indicating a strong potential for growth in the domestic chemical market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that energy costs will be a critical factor determining the success of countries in the artificial intelligence (AI) race, with AI infrastructure development closely linked to energy costs [1][3] - Microsoft has announced a significant investment of $80 billion in AI data center construction, with 50% of the spending allocated to regions outside the United States [3] - Nadella emphasizes that the development of AI must consider social value, as the inability of tokens to improve healthcare, education, and public sector efficiency could lead to a loss of social license to use scarce energy resources for token generation [3] Group 2 - Nadella suggests that Europe, facing high energy costs exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, needs a more global perspective to succeed in the AI era [4] - The competitiveness of European products in the global market, rather than just within Europe, is essential for the region's economic revival [4] - Nadella criticizes the focus on "sovereignty" in discussions, advocating for broader market access for local industrial and financial services to enhance competitiveness [4]