Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pork prices before the New Year, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.39 CNY/kg, a 7.6% increase from the previous week, although it remains 19.7% lower year-on-year [5][13][23] - The implementation of a safeguard policy for beef import quotas is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures, with a total import quota of 2.688 million tons for 2026, which is 93.5% of the total imports in 2024 [14] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in the livestock sector, particularly Wens Foodstuff and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential turnaround candidates like Zhengbang Technology [5][13] Livestock Farming - The report notes that the pork market is under pressure due to significant losses in the industry, but the reduction in production capacity is expected to accelerate, leading to a more stable price environment in the first half of 2026 [5][13] - For poultry, the average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.78 CNY/lb, down 3.1% week-on-week, while yellow feather chicken prices have shown slight increases, benefiting companies like Lihua and Wens [5][13][32] Dairy Industry - The current price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year, indicating a balance in supply and demand as inventory levels decrease [14] - The safeguard measures on beef imports are anticipated to support domestic beef prices, which are expected to rise, enhancing the performance of companies like Yurun and Modern Farming [14] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a rebound in aquaculture prices due to holiday demand, with significant increases in white shrimp prices leading up to the New Year [15] - The feed industry is facing intense competition, but leading companies are expected to gain market share due to their cost advantages, especially in international markets [15] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.7 percentage points, with livestock farming and feed sectors showing the highest gains of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively [21] - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn and soybean meal prices, with corn prices rising by 0.6% to 2352 CNY/ton [23][46]

A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that YouRan Agriculture (09858) is expected to benefit from the continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory and a significant increase in beef prices, which will likely enhance the profitability from culling cows. Additionally, the dairy industry is effectively adjusting market supply through investments in deep processing capacity, which is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of industry capacity and support a recovery in raw milk prices by 2026 [1][5]. Group 2 - The continuous reduction in dairy cow inventory is deepening and accelerating, with a total decrease of 540,000 heads (8.1%) over the past 20 months since reaching a peak in February 2024. This reduction is expected to stabilize fresh milk prices and alleviate previous supply excess pressures [1][5]. - The dairy processing industry is expanding deep processing capacity to consume raw milk, with products like cheese and milk powder significantly outpacing liquid milk in raw milk consumption, thus playing a crucial role in balancing market supply [2][5]. Group 3 - Beef prices have started to reverse, with the average wholesale price in China increasing from 57 yuan/kg in February to 66 yuan/kg in December, a rise of 15.79%. This price increase is expected to enhance the profitability from culling cows, as the price of culled cows is linked to market beef prices [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the profitability from culling cows will increase further with rising beef prices, which will also facilitate the further reduction of dairy cow inventory and help achieve a balance in raw milk supply and demand [3][4]. Group 4 - The company projects that from 2025 to 2027, the culling of dairy cows will generate incremental profits of 1.27 billion, 2.13 billion, and 3.78 billion yuan, respectively, based on expected price increases for culled cows [4]. - The company expects to achieve revenues of 208.05 billion, 217.22 billion, and 229.82 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.53%, 4.41%, and 5.80%, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 5.12 billion, 16.78 billion, and 28.56 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in in 2026 is positive. The steel market is in the off - season with inventory reduction, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. The iron ore has high inventory and potential storage fee pressure, and the coke and coal markets are affected by factors such as production resumption expectations and supply - demand changes. The glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The iron water output is basically stable, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the upstream - downstream game is strong. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is weak, and the port trading volume has increased [2][9]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is high, and the restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut of leading steel enterprises in East China [2][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization. After the four - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the downstream winter storage replenishment starts, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten [2][13]. - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][13]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: With the expected new supply in Inner Mongolia, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is expected to be further loosened. The cost still supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [3][18]. - Ferrosilicon: Low supply and low inventory support the price of ferrosilicon, but the price cut of coke restricts its upward space. The demand has not increased significantly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high, and the supply - demand is currently in excess. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14]. - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [3][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term growth potential of China's pig farming sector [3][50]. Core Insights - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pigs and pork, with a projected pig production of 705 million heads in 2025, accounting for 54.7% of global production [3][12]. - The report forecasts a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, driven by a reduction in the breeding sow population, which is currently at a historically high level [3][32]. - The profitability of pig farming is expected to gradually improve as pig prices rebound and feed costs remain low [3][47][48]. Summary by Sections 1. China's Position in the Global Pork Market - China leads the world in both pig and pork production, with 2025 projections indicating a pork production of 57 million tons, representing 48.9% of global output [3][12]. - The country has a low reliance on pork imports, with an expected import volume of 1.3 million tons in 2025, only 2.2% of its total consumption [3][27]. 2. Breeding Sow Capacity and Supply Outlook - The breeding sow population is undergoing a gradual reduction, with a current stock of 39.57 million heads, down 3.01% from the previous year [3][32]. - The report anticipates a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, which may lead to a recovery in pig prices [3][34]. 3. Industry Scale and Growth Potential - The scale of pig farming in China is increasing, with over 70% of production now coming from large-scale farms [3][50]. - The top 26 enterprises accounted for approximately 33% of total pig output in 2024, indicating a significant concentration in the industry [3][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights leading companies with cost and scale advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as potential investment opportunities [3][50].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the breeding industry chain in the report is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The new soybean purchase price released on Wednesday has increased significantly compared to November, providing bottom - support for the spot price. Although state - reserve soybean auctions have increased supply, the strong demand before the Spring Festival has led to a strong trend in the spot and futures markets. However, attention should be paid to the market reaction after consecutive auctions of imported soybeans after New Year's Day, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term [1] - The domestic corn market is in a consolidation and oscillation pattern with regional differences. In the Northeast market, growers are reluctant to sell due to lower storage difficulty, but the continuous auction of imported corn, sufficient downstream inventory, and weak purchasing enthusiasm have led to cautious trading. The far - month contracts may have a slight upward shift in the center of gravity and a rebound expectation after the supply pressure eases [1] - The low egg price and continuous losses have led to an inflection point in the decline of laying - hen inventory. Although the inventory is still at a high level historically and the supply is abundant, which suppresses the egg price, and the far - month price has no obvious driving force [2] - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025, and the speed and intensity of subsequent capacity reduction will determine the supply contraction. The current supply pressure of live pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory makes the far - month contracts in 2026 have the possibility of rising, which may be reflected in the futures market after the Spring Festival [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - The 2022 state - reserve soybean auction has increased market supply. The new soybean purchase price released on Wednesday is significantly higher than that in November, supporting the spot price. The high auction transaction rates before the Spring Festival indicate strong demand, keeping the spot and futures markets strong. Attention should be paid to the market reaction after consecutive auctions of imported soybeans after New Year's Day, with a medium - term wide - range oscillation [1] Corn - The domestic corn market is oscillating and consolidating, with regional differences. In the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell due to lower storage difficulty, especially for high - quality corn. However, continuous imported corn auctions, sufficient downstream inventory, and weak purchasing enthusiasm in the breeding industry have led to cautious trading. Although the auction volume has increased, the market demand still exists, but the willingness to accept high prices is weak. The far - month contracts may have a slight upward shift and a rebound expectation after the supply pressure eases [1] Eggs - Low prices and continuous losses have led to a decline in laying - hen inventory. As of the end of November, the quarterly average of laying - hen inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease. However, the current inventory is still at a historically high level, with a high proportion of medium - and large - sized eggs, resulting in oversupply and suppressing the egg price. The far - month price has no obvious driving force [2] Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, still higher than the industry's reasonable regulatory target of 39 million but showing a clear downward trend. The speed and intensity of subsequent capacity reduction will determine the supply contraction. The current supply pressure of live pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts in 2026 have the possibility of rising, which may be reflected in the futures market after the Spring Festival [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the importance of breeding sows and farming efficiency, with expectations of a price decline in 2026 but potential rebounds in between [1] Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - In December 2025, the pig price was 11.81 yuan/kg, down 27.4% from the end of 2024 [3] - The breeding profit for self-bred and purchased piglets was -130 yuan/head and -163 yuan/head respectively, indicating ongoing industry losses that may accelerate capacity reduction [3] - As of the end of October, the number of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month [3] - The annual average pig price is expected to decline year-on-year, with variations based on the performance of leading pig companies in cost optimization [3] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control, healthy financials, and reasonable valuations [3] Group 2: Agricultural Index Performance - In December, the agricultural index underperformed the CSI 300, with a decline of 0.95% compared to a 2.56% increase in the CSI 300 [2] - Among sub-industry indices, animal health showed a relative increase of 5.35%, while aquaculture and farming sectors declined by 2.01% and 3.81% respectively [2] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - In November, China's pet food export value was 838 million yuan, down 3.81% year-on-year, with export volume at 33,400 tons, up 11.23% [4] - The average export price was 25.08 yuan/kg, marking a year-on-year decrease of 13.51% [4] - Cumulatively from January to November, the export value was 9.196 billion yuan, down 4.18%, with a total export volume of 323,600 tons, up 6.96% [4] - The average export price for the same period was 28.42 yuan/kg, down 10.41% year-on-year [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Breeding Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020750 [1] Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Pig - In the short term, supply-demand mismatch boosts price rebound, but supply growth and inventory accumulation limit the upside. In the medium to long term, supply remains high before the first half of next year, and prices are under pressure in the off-season. Prices are expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [5][58]. Egg - Currently, supply is sufficient, and prices are under pressure. In the medium to long term, supply pressure remains, but there is support at the bottom. The market will experience a grinding process, and attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. Corn - In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be released, and the market should be cautious about chasing high prices. In the medium to long term, there is strong cost support, but the supply-demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upside [7][105]. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Breeding View Summary Pig - **Period and Spot End**: As of December 26, the national spot price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 11.82 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,645 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of contract 03 was 175 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price fluctuated narrowly, first falling and then rising [5][58]. - **Supply End**: In September, the official inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly. In October, capacity reduction accelerated under policy regulation and profit losses, but it was still above the normal level of 39 million. With improved production performance, supply will remain high before the first half of next year and decrease marginally after August. Supply pressure is still high from December to the first quarter of next year. The planned pig出栏 of large-scale enterprises in December increased month-on-month. Retailers and second fattening showed stronger reluctance to sell, and the proportion of large pig出栏 decreased. The average出栏 weight stagnated and declined [5][58]. - **Demand End**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased after the Winter Solstice but rebounded later due to the basic demand in the twelfth lunar month. Terminal consumption was lower than expected, and the fresh sales rate decreased. Slaughterhouses actively digested frozen inventories, but the frozen product sales were average, and the frozen product inventory rate decreased slightly. With the support of New Year's Day and Spring Festival stocking demand, the decline in slaughter volume was limited or gradually increased. However, the high frozen product inventory limited the positive support, and future frozen product outflows would put pressure on supply [5][58]. - **Cost End**: The piglet price fluctuated slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self-breeding and self-raising profit loss narrowed, and the cost of self-breeding and self-raising fattening pigs for 5 months increased slightly compared to last week. The national pig-grain ratio reached the warning level, and the state mainly carried out rotation storage. Attention should be paid to national policies [5][58]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the supply-demand mismatch boosts price rebound, but supply growth and inventory accumulation limit the upside. In the medium to long term, supply remains high before the first half of next year, and prices are under pressure in the off-season. Prices are expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [5][58]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The main contract is undervalued and rebounds under the push of supply-demand mismatch and macro funds, but the rebound is under pressure due to increased supply and inventory accumulation. Wait for the off-season contract to rebound and then go short. For the far-month contract, although capacity is reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level, and costs are decreasing. Be cautious about bullish views. Before effective capacity reduction, the industry can hedge at high profits and operate in a rolling manner [5][58]. Egg - **Period and Spot End**: As of December 26, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2602 was 2,957 yuan/500 kg, up 71 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was -137 yuan/500 kg, down 51 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price fluctuated at a low level. As New Year's Day approached, the enthusiasm for purchasing low-priced goods increased, but caution was exercised towards high-priced goods [6][84]. - **Supply End**: The newly laid hens in December correspond to the replenishment in July 2025, with both month-on-month and year-on-year declines, at the historical average level. The current spot price is still weak, driving the elimination of old hens, and the supply pressure is marginally reduced. However, the inventory base is still large, and the market supply pattern remains sufficient, which will still put pressure on egg prices in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the deterioration of breeding profits, the enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has continued to decline. The replenishment volume from August to November 2025 decreased significantly year-on-year and was at the historical average level, corresponding to a small number of newly laid hens from January to April 2026. However, the tight supply pattern of chicks has eased, making it difficult to over-eliminate and easy to replenish. The market will experience a repeated bottoming process, and it will still take time to clear the production capacity. Overall, the medium to long-term supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. - **Demand End**: The New Year's Day stocking is approaching the end, and the procurement demand from channels has declined. However, the current egg price has fallen to a relatively low level, and further decline will easily stimulate the increase in channel inventory demand. In terms of substitutes, the pork price has been under long-term pressure, and the vegetable price has remained high. The high cost performance of eggs drives the improvement of terminal substitution demand, which supports the egg price [6][84]. - **Weekly Summary**: Currently, the sufficient supply puts pressure on the spot price, driving the high enthusiasm for eliminating old hens. Coupled with the small number of newly laid hens, the supply pressure is marginally reduced. At the same time, the egg price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is still support from the Spring Festival demand. Coupled with the high vegetable price, there is support at the bottom of the egg price. Overall, the short-term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price fluctuates at a low level. In the medium to long term, the replenishment volume from August to November 2025 decreased significantly year-on-year and was at the historical average level, corresponding to a small number of newly laid hens from January to April 2026. However, the tight supply pattern of chicks has eased, making it difficult to over-eliminate and easy to replenish. The market will experience a repeated bottoming process, and the medium to long-term supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to elimination and external variables [6][84]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The current 02 contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a historical low. Breeding enterprises should wait for the price to rebound and then hedge at high prices. In the medium term, the replenishment of chicks has declined both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the pressure of newly laid hens is not large. If a large number of hens are eliminated around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the supply pressure after the festival. In the long term, it will still take time to clear the production capacity, and the supply pressure remains. Attention should be paid to external environmental protection policies, epidemics, and other passive capacity reduction factors [6][84]. Corn - **Period and Spot End**: As of December 26, the corn flat price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 78 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price adjusted narrowly, and the purchase and sales in the producing areas slowed down. The reluctance to sell of grain holders at the grass-roots and channel levels still existed, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory building enthusiasm and grain sales rhythm. The main contract 03 rebounded significantly in the second half of the week, currently at a discount to the spot, and the basis was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [7][105]. - **Supply End**: The national grass-roots grain sales rate was 45%, 4% faster than the same period last year. The grain sales in the producing areas slowed down, and the auction of imported policy grains had good results, boosting market sentiment. The reluctance to sell of grain holders at the grass-roots and drying tower levels still existed, and the market supply slowed down. As the grain sales progress in North China was slower than the same period last year, there were not many trucks arriving at the deep processing plants. There may still be a demand for grain sales at the grass-roots level before the Spring Festival, which is expected to relieve the short-term tight pattern. In November, the corn import volume was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56% and a year-on-year increase of 86.7%. The import of sorghum increased month-on-month and decreased year-on-year, and the import of barley decreased month-on-month and increased year-on-year. The import of international grains remained at a low level but increased year-on-year. As of December 19, the inventories at the northern and southern ports were 1.88 million tons and 502,000 tons respectively, a month-on-month increase of 70,000 tons and 49,000 tons. As of December 26, the average number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep processing enterprises in the morning was 495, a week-on-week decrease of 199 [7][105]. - **Demand End**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of sows increased, and there was a slight reduction from December to January 2025. With improved performance, the inventory of pigs this year has shown an increasing trend, and the inventory of poultry has also remained at a high level. The high inventory supports the rigid demand for feed. Recently, the corn price has rebounded significantly, and the price difference between corn and wheat has narrowed. If it continues to rise, the feed use cost performance of wheat will reappear, and feed enterprises may increase the purchase of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. In terms of deep processing, as the raw material price rebounds, the processing profit has narrowed significantly. The operating rate has rebounded but is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory is at a high level, limiting the increase in deep processing demand [7][105]. - **Weekly Summary**: The purchase and sales in the producing areas slowed down, and the auction of imported corn had good results, boosting market sentiment. The reluctance to sell of grain holders still existed, but the downstream was cautious about high-price purchases and mainly carried out rolling inventory replenishment. Currently, the national grain sales rate is 45%, and there may still be a demand for grain sales at the grass-roots level before the Spring Festival, increasing market supply and relieving the tight pattern. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm. In the medium to long term, the planting cost of corn in the 2025/2026 season has decreased, and the weather during the growing period is suitable, so a bumper harvest is expected. However, the carry-over inventory of the old crop is low, and the import is expected to increase year-on-year but is at a low level, driving the enhancement of cost support. In terms of demand, the inventory of pigs and poultry is slowly decreasing, the feed demand is rigid, the deep processing profit is at a relatively low level in history, the finished product sales are not smooth, and the inventory is at a high level. The increase in corn processing demand is limited. Overall, the demand for new-season corn is stable and weak, limiting the upside space of corn. In general, in the short term, the high market price drives the increase in shipping enthusiasm, and it is expected that there is still selling pressure to be released. Attention should be paid to the new grain listing rhythm and channel inventory building. In the medium to long term, the old crop inventory is not much, the import remains at a low level, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom. However, the supply-demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose year-on-year, putting pressure on the upside space [7][105]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for a significant increase in the spot price, and the market should be cautious about chasing high prices. Grain holders can hedge at high prices when the price rebounds. In the medium to long term, the demand is gradually released, and there is strong support at the bottom. However, the supply-demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose year-on-year, limiting the increase [7][105].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - oscillatory [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - hold long positions cautiously, hold light positions during holidays; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading; Lithium carbonate - range oscillation [1][10][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - range trading; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - weakly oscillatory [1][17][24] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillatory and slightly bullish; Apple - oscillatory; Jujube - oscillatory [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs - short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - 02 contract for breeding enterprises can wait to hedge on rallies; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, grain - holding entities hedge on rallies; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually, cautious on chasing highs [1][29][36] Core Views - The market is in a complex situation with various factors influencing different sectors. For example, macro policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors all play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities. Some sectors are expected to have short - term trading opportunities, while others require long - term observation due to uncertainties [5][7][10] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, but may oscillate in the short - term due to factors like policy changes, industrial profit decline, and exchange - rate concerns [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate as previous driving factors fade, and there is a lack of significant positive drivers for a new trend [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between clear bearish realities and weak marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: With a neutral static valuation and stable expectations, short - term range trading is advised [7] - **Glass**: Although the long - term supply - demand situation is deteriorating, there may be short - term trading opportunities around the New Year. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Reached a record high recently, but there is a risk of short - term correction. Long - term bullish, but hold positions cautiously and lightly during holidays [10] - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are weak, but due to macro factors, it has rebounded. Strengthen observation [12] - **Nickel**: Expected to be in an oversupply situation in the long - term. Observe or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Driven by factors such as GDP growth and Fed policies, they are expected to oscillate. Hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a state of balance. It is expected to oscillate in a range [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak fundamentals, low valuation, and concerns about export sustainability, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Under the pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", it is recommended to observe temporarily [19] - **Styrene**: Short - term range oscillation, with the need to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long - term [19] - **Rubber**: Due to the divergence between cost support and weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in a range [21] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are both decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [22] - **Methanol**: With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, it is expected to be weakly oscillatory [24] - **Polyolefins**: In a situation of strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and PP is expected to oscillate in a range [24] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus as the main pressure, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand adjustments and policy expectations, they are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish [26] - **Apple and Jujube**: The market is relatively stable, and they are expected to oscillate [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The price is oscillating at the bottom. Short - term sell on rallies for near - month contracts, and cautiously bullish for far - month contracts [29][30] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract [31][33] - **Corn**: Short - term sell pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand will gradually recover. Hedge on rallies in the short - term [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: Trade in a range, bullish on dips for near - month contracts and bearish for far - month contracts [35] - **Oils**: Short - term stop - falling and rebound, close long positions gradually [36][43]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025: Changchun corn price remained at 2160; Jinzhou increased by 20 to 2250; Weifang remained at 2250; Shekou decreased by 10 to 2390; Heilongjiang and Weifang starch prices remained at 2750 and 2800 respectively; starch base difference decreased by 30 [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn market sentiment is weak due to policy, but farmers' price - holding limits supply, and post - New Year downstream replenishment may drive up prices; starch de - stocking slows down, but price adjustment is limited, and post - New Year prices may rise slightly [3] - Long - term: Corn should focus on import and storage auction policies; starch should focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory de - stocking [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From December 22 to 24, 2025: Liuzhou price remained at 5380 on the 22nd and 23rd, and increased to 5420 on the 24th; Nanning increased by 10 to 5340; Kunming increased to 5240; Liuzhou base difference decreased by 16 [4][5] - From December 25 to 26, 2025: Liuzhou remained at 5420; Nanning increased to 5350; Liuzhou base difference decreased to 135 [20] Market Analysis - Short - term: Reduced supply pressure on raw sugar, and the market price can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price; short covering drives up the market [6] - Long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will seek the out - of - quota import cost; pay attention to weather and policy changes [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025: 3128 cotton increased by 285 to 15285; Vietnam yarn price remained at 2.53; Vietnam yarn import profit increased by 94 to 1039; 32S spinning profit decreased by 199 to - 639 [10] Market Analysis - Low initial inventory offsets most of the output increase, and future consumption is the key; with expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, long - term long positions are suitable [10] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025: Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei egg prices remained stable; the base difference increased by 72 to 357 [15] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared but the base is still high. The key to inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit the second - quarter egg price [16] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025: Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900; the national inventory decreased by 3; Shandong inventory decreased by 39; Shaanxi inventory decreased by 19 [18][19] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is light, and the sales in the sales area are slow. The market is in a high - level shock and is expected to show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [19] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From December 22 to 25, 2025: Henan Kaifeng increased to 11.78; Hubei Xiangyang increased to 11.65; Shandong Linyi increased to 11.92; Anhui Hefei increased to 12.15; Jiangsu Nantong increased to 12.20 [19] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price increased significantly. There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [19]