成本下移拉低估值， 需求边际有所改善 不锈钢月报 2025/12/05 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，12月05日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12700元/吨，环比+0.00%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报8550元/吨，环比+0.60%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12425元/吨，环比+0.12%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，11月国内冷轧不锈钢排产141.26万吨。10月粗钢产量为306.45万吨，环比-0.16万吨，1-10月累计同比6.48%。据MYSTEEL 样本统计，10月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达144.97万吨，环比-2.27%；11月300系冷轧产量70.04万吨，环比-4.16%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1-1 ...

短多维持 裂差向下 原油月报 2025/12/05 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5 ...

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is entering a potentially volatile December after a weak month with minimal price fluctuations, leading market participants to focus on upcoming production negotiations, supply structure changes, and cross-regional logistics [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Forecasts - The forecast for oil prices in 2026 has been revised down to approximately $62 per barrel, primarily due to anticipated oversupply [4] - Various institutions predict inventory increases ranging from 500,000 to 4.2 million barrels per day, indicating a consensus on rising supply despite differing estimates [4] - The average WTI price for next year is expected to be around $59, slightly below the cost line for some new well blocks, providing a natural support for future oil prices [4] Group 2: Shipping and Regional Price Structures - Shipping costs are expected to ease, potentially accelerating the flow of Atlantic Basin crude oil to Asian markets, which will further impact regional price structures [4] - The average price of ICE Brent from January to November 2025 is projected at $68.8 per barrel, showing a significant decline from the previous year, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding demand uncertainty [4] Group 3: Energy Market Dynamics - Global energy companies are actively involved in block acquisitions, pipeline asset consolidations, and major infrastructure adjustments, affecting market dynamics [2][4] - Rising natural gas demand in various regions has led to prices reaching multi-year highs, while some major smelting groups have announced production cuts, driving metal prices to record levels [2][4] - The tightening supply-demand trend across different commodities is expected to have spillover effects on energy costs, alternative demand, and related investment sentiment [2][4] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events remain a core variable affecting supply and demand, with key pipelines experiencing temporary disruptions due to drone attacks or technical issues, leading to increased shipping insurance rates [5] - Energy policies and project decisions in multiple countries, including an increase in natural gas usage and adjustments in overseas project financing, add layers of complexity to regional markets [5] - December is seen as a critical window for supply negotiations, climate factors, and geopolitical interactions, with the potential for supply-demand balance to be disrupted [5]

高盛认为，近期铜价上涨主要基于对未来市场紧缺的预期，而非当前基本面支撑，预计2026年铜价将在1万至1.1万美元区间震荡。该行预测今年铜供应 将比需求多出约50万吨，2026年逐步趋于平衡，真正的短缺要到2029年才会出现。 在最新发布的研报中，高盛的Aurelia Waltham分析师团队写道， 近期铜价上涨主要基于对未来市场紧缺的预期，而非当前基本面支撑。该行预计今年 铜供应将比需求多出约50万吨，铜短缺要到2029年才会出现。 高盛将2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜均价预测上调至10,710美元，反映美国潜在关税政策推动铜流入的影响，但下半年或有小幅回调。此 外，美国以外地区的"极低"库存问题可通过更高的地区升水和更紧的伦敦金属交易所（LME）价差得到缓解。 LME铜价周三在创下每吨1.154万美元的历史新高，主要由于市场担心美国征收关税前金属大量涌入造成全球供应紧张。周四亚太地区矿业股跟随走 高，洛阳钼业A股一度上涨6%，Capstone Copper澳洲股票一度涨8.2%。 铜仍被高盛视为工业金属中的"首选"，受全球电网与能源基础设施投资拉动，长期供需结构趋紧，但短期内市场仍处于小幅过剩状 ...

3 December 2025 | 1:03PM GMT Commodities Research METAL VIEWS Copper Our Favourite Industrial Metal as Supply Lowers Prices of Aluminium/Lithium/Iron Ore Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月03日 (原油) API 数据显示美国成品油及原油库存增加。外盘油价周二下跌逾1%，市场在俄乌冲突局势与供应过 剩之间，俄罗斯里海管道联盟表示自11月中旬起进行维护的SPM-3预计将在未来七天内恢复运行， 恢复进度快于原计划。消息面对油价更多是阶段性提振，基本面供需盈余扩大仍决定油价中枢存下 行压力。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡，盘中波动较大。白银刷新历史新高后涨势趋缓,黄金突破前高阳力前贵金属整体 仍以震荡对待谨慎追高。铂年内供应存缺口,把供需预期紧平衡,走势上铂强于肥。关注今晚美国 ADP就业和ISM非制造业PMI数据。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜震荡收跌，逐渐靠向短期均线，LME现货升水持平68美元。沪铜在前期成交密集区8.83- 8.85万有一定韧性。国内现铜昨报88660元，上海铜升水扩至120元，洋山铜溢价扩至38美元。多单 依托MA5日均线持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。过去两日主要地区铝锭社库连续两日小幅增加，现货贴水略有扩大。铝市基本 面矛盾有限，季节性库存表现中性，需求缺少亮点但具备韧性。沪铝震荡测试前高22000 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 02, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - As of December 02, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Synthetic rubber rose nearly 4%, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon fell over 2%. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and economic data, leading to different price trends and future expectations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 02, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Synthetic rubber, silver, pulp, coke, and container shipping to Europe routes had significant increases, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon had notable drops. Stock index futures and bond futures also mostly declined [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. After the Indonesian copper mine accident, production is planned to restart in phases from Q2 2026, easing the tight supply expectation. December domestic copper production is expected to increase. Demand is supported by the power grid and energy storage, but the buying interest has decreased. The CSPT plans to cut production by over 10% in 2026, but the upside for copper prices is limited [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. In November, domestic production increased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate was high. In December, production is expected to continue to increase, but there may be seasonal production cuts in salt - lake lithium extraction. Demand has entered a stable growth stage, and the supply - demand balance has slightly eased, with the price consolidating at a high level [10][12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and US oil inventories have increased. The number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and geopolitical tensions may cause supply disruptions. Crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate increased slightly last week, and the December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory ratio is at a low level. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic weaving industry decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. Downstream demand is in the off - peak season, and the price increase space is limited [16][17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate remained stable. Downstream demand, especially for agricultural films, is in the off - peak season. With new capacity coming on stream, the supply has increased. The price increase space is limited [18] 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was stable. The cancellation of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax has limited impact. The inventory is high, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season in December, so the upside is limited [19][20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the inventory is shifting to the upstream. Downstream demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices were strong during the day. The gas - based plants are starting to cut production. Agricultural demand is mainly for reserve purchases, and compound fertilizer plants are in the winter storage production stage. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is supported, so the price is expected to be strong in the short term [23]

自11月下旬以来，在减产和政策消息的影响下，多晶硅期货价格重心逐渐上移，目前主力合约期价逼近 60000元/吨大关。预计后期在"强预期"与"弱现实"的激烈博弈下，多晶硅期货将以宽幅震荡行情为主。 此外，上周光伏组件生产成本下降，现货价格持平。据Mysteel数据，截至11月28日，光伏组件(N型 585W)市场均价为0.68元/瓦，环比持平;即期生产成本为0.715元/瓦，环比下降0.011元/瓦;即期单瓦净利 润为-0.035元。 首先，硅片环节：高库存压制价格，行业进入主动减产调整期。为应对供需失衡，11月宁夏、云南、浙 江等地多家企业陆续减产。据SMM数据，11月国内硅片产量为54.37GW，环比下滑10.35%。但供应收 缩未能扭转市场颓势，在海外需求萎缩、外协代工订单减少的背景下，硅片库存持续累积。据SMM数 据，截至11月27日，国内硅片库存已攀升至19.5GW，周环比增加4.17%。为缓解库存压力，企业提升出 货意愿，头部厂商带头下调报价，11月各尺寸硅片均价已跌破现金成本，其中N型210R的价格压力最为 突出。进入12月，企业减产幅度扩大且年内生产配额基本完成，硅片定价逐步转向成本逻辑。鉴于需 ...