Core Insights - India has significantly increased its palm oil purchases, acquiring 950,000 tons, which may impact the palm oil futures market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in India's palm oil imports could lead to upward pressure on palm oil futures prices, despite existing inventory challenges [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether Malaysian palm oil futures can withstand the pressure from rising inventory levels [1]

The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all rated as "oscillating"; soda ash is rated as "oscillating weakly" [8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16] 2. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the black market weakened. Affected by the news of coal mine restart, coking coal and coke had large declines in the late trading. The overall demand for five major steel products is in a weakening trend in the off - season, and the market is cautious, with the market resuming an oscillating trend. Geopolitical conflicts have less impact, and the trading focus has shifted to the domestic market. Although the blast furnace charge has rebounded from the oversold situation, the demand and inventory of steel are under pressure, so the upward space is limited [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while steel mills' hot metal daily output slightly increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profitability and maintenance plans [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Some coal mines in Shanxi have restarted, but the overall coking coal output is still declining. Coke production has dropped from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coking enterprises' production. Coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and there is still pressure on coal mines to reduce inventory. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3.3 Alloys - For silicon manganese, the lack of arrivals from Gabon in early July supports prices. Although there is an expectation of increased production, factories and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost inversion, so the short - term market is expected to oscillate. For silicon iron, although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is also expected to oscillate [3]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, upstream inventory is accumulating, and the energy cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, cold - repair, and demand sustainability. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. With the resumption of maintenance, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [3][13][15]. 3.6 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products both weakened month - on - month, and the overall inventory increased. However, the inventory of rebar decreased. Driven by a weak fundamental situation and short - term weakening of macro - sentiment, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Shipping and arrivals both decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8][9]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The arrival volume has decreased, and the total daily consumption has also declined. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.6.4 Coke - The market is stable, but the coking enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is expected to weaken. The upward space for coke prices is limited, and there is a downward pressure in the medium term [10][11]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - The supply disturbance is difficult to sustain, and there is an expectation of increased production. The downstream demand is declining in the off - season, and the coal mine inventory reduction pressure remains. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase, and the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [3][12]. 3.6.6 Silicon Manganese - There is an expectation of increased production, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. But due to cost inversion, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][15]. 3.6.7 Silicon Iron - Although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel tenders and production [3][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to have high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly. The overall price of soybean meal this year is expected to be at a relatively low level with high inventory, and the price fluctuation may show a mild decline or slow increase. The real potential positive driving force may appear from December to January of the next year [19][22][36] - For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet. There are potential risks of tight cargo rights from December to January of the next year, which may push up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [6][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Broiler Industry Chain Profit - Chicken苗 prices have dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chicken苗 prices falling below 2 yuan per piece at the end of June (about 3 yuan per piece at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, while the slaughter link has a small loss. The deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales volume. The frozen product sales are poor, and the inventory pressure is high. The 817 broiler breeding profit is not good [2] - Except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors in the breeding link, such as poultry and aquaculture, are not good [13] Oil Mill Dynamics - Some oil mills have account - inventory situations and start to urge customers to pick up goods. The oil mill operating rate in Shandong is expected to be at a high level by mid - July or the end of July [3] - This year, the overall oil mill crushing profit is okay. Some small - scale crushing plants that were shut down before have resumed production. The sales progress of foreign - funded oil mills is similar to that of the same period last year, while the sales progress of private oil mills is relatively slow [16][29] Soybean Meal Usage and Addition Ratio - Currently, the daily soybean meal usage has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected that the daily soybean meal usage in July will remain stable compared with June. If the formula remains unchanged in August and September, the usage is expected to continue to increase month - on - month, with the increase mainly coming from the growth of feed sales [4] - The current soybean meal addition ratios are: 6 - 8% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to be maintained until September - October. If wheat is used to replace corn, the impact on soybean meal demand is limited, with only about 1% reduction in usage [4] Inventory and Sales - It is expected that the soybean meal inventory pressure will increase significantly in mid - July. Feed mills, as buyers of the M2507 soybean meal futures contract warehouse receipts, are reluctant to take delivery because current feed enterprises prefer to use 46% protein soybean meal [5] - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while the sales progress from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12] - The soybean meal market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The sales of oil mills in July have basically been sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10% [22][32] Procurement - Enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans currently but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends. For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet [16][25] - The current purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans for the August shipment is 85%, 35% for the September shipment, and 20% for the October shipment. If US soybeans are not purchased, it is expected that the domestic supply from November to December can still be maintained [22]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to prolonged rebate settlement periods and price inversion issues, prompting calls from dealers for manufacturers to optimize rebate policies and shorten payment timelines [1][4][8]. Group 1: Dealer Challenges - Approximately 84.4% of automotive dealers reported experiencing price inversion, with 60.4% facing a price inversion exceeding 15% [2]. - A survey of 42 automotive brands indicated that around 80% of best-selling models are affected by price inversion, with the inversion amount typically exceeding 20% [2]. - The automotive dealers are under severe financial pressure due to long rebate settlement periods, often exceeding 90 to 180 days, leading to cash flow crises [3][4]. Group 2: Rebate Policy Initiatives - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automotive Dealers Chamber has called for manufacturers to set clear rebate policies and reduce the rebate payment period to no more than 30 days [1][4]. - The Henan Province Automotive Industry Chamber has proposed a 60-day settlement period for dealer rebates to alleviate operational funding pressures [4][8]. - A survey revealed that 17 brands have a fixed rebate period of no more than 30 days, while others extend up to 180 days [6]. Group 3: Manufacturer Responses - BYD has initiated a rebate program for dealers, offering a reward of 666 yuan per vehicle, amounting to over 11.7 billion yuan based on recent sales data [7]. - Several manufacturers, including GAC Group and BMW, have committed to reducing rebate payment periods to 60 days, reflecting a growing recognition of the need for timely financial support for dealers [5][6]. - The industry is moving towards a collaborative ecosystem where manufacturers and dealers work together to mitigate risks and enhance long-term benefits [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].

农产品早报 2025-06-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周一美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠 加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周 一国内豆粕现货下跌 50 元/吨，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周港口大豆库存 783 万吨，油厂 豆粕库存 51 万吨。周一国内豆粕成交一般，提货仍较好。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the strong crude oil drives the rubber to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material situation in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [1] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 13,950 yuan/ton; the whole milk basis increased by 162.50%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.72%; the cup rubber price decreased by 0.52%; the glue price remained unchanged; the natural rubber prices in Xishuangbanna and Hainan were mostly stable, with the glue price in Xishuangbanna increasing by 0.76% [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.18%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.73% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, the domestic tire production in May decreased slightly, the tire export increased by 7.72%, the natural rubber import in April decreased by 11.93%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in May decreased by 11.59%. The production cost and production profit of Thai dry glue changed [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.67%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE decreased by 7.51%, the dry glue warehouse entry and exit rates in Qingdao changed [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating strongly. Although it is supported by the demand for restocking and the strong coking coal futures, the current fundamentals have not improved significantly. The increase in production may lead to inventory pressure and suppress the price. The current situation does not mean a bottom - rebound [3] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [3] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 2.29%, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 2.60%, the production in Yunnan decreased by 25.43%, the production in Sichuan increased by 109.47%, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased. The production of 97 - silicon decreased, and the production of recycled silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased slightly. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The industrial silicon export in April decreased by 8.03% [3] - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, the social inventory decreased by 2.27%, and the contract inventory and non - warehouse inventory decreased [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The polysilicon price continues to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of increased supply and weakening demand. Although it supports the price of industrial silicon, the polysilicon fundamentals have not improved. The short positions can be held cautiously [5] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained unchanged, and the basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract price decreased by 3.12%, and the monthly spreads of different contracts changed [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.53%, and the polycrystalline silicon production increased by 2.94%. In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%, the silicon wafer production decreased by 0.50%, and the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10%. In April, the polysilicon import decreased by 72.71%, the export increased by 66.17%, the silicon wafer import decreased by 15.29%, and the export decreased by 12.97% [5] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 4.73%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.10% [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View** - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash futures stabilized with the market sentiment last week, the supply - demand pattern is still in obvious excess. There will be a further profit - reduction process. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and the inventory may increase after the end of maintenance. The short positions can be held [6] - **Glass**: The spot market improved last week, but the future pressure still exists. Entering the summer rainy season, the demand will slow down again. The glass industry needs capacity clearance, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050, with long - term pressure [6] - **Summary by Directory** - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 spread decreased by 18.18% [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 2.00%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 spread increased by 1.05% [6] - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 4.76% [6] - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [6] - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of shock, with varying degrees of changes in supply, demand, and inventory in each sector. Uncertainties remain in the market, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as policies, geopolitics, and raw material prices [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel plate continued to fluctuate today. The apparent demand for thread was stable week - on - week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, production remained high, and inventory declined. The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron output remains relatively high, but the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still fermented repeatedly. The overall domestic demand is still weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the plate fluctuation narrows. The short - term trend is mainly shock [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore plate fluctuated today. The global shipment is in the peak season, and there is an expectation of end - of - season impulse. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but is expected to rebound. The port inventory is expected to stop falling and increase, and the supply pressure increases marginally. The terminal demand is in the off - season, the steel mills still have profits, and the molten iron output is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is still strong, and the iron ore is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron output decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of the fourth round of price cuts. The coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined from the annual high. The overall coke inventory decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the coking coal price rebounded, and the coke price is driven by crude oil to some extent [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to decline slightly, and the supply was still restricted. The spot auction market improved slightly at low prices, and the decline in transaction prices slowed down. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The overall coking coal inventory may be destocked, but the rebound space of the coking coal price should not be overly optimistic due to inventory pressure [5] Silicomanganese - Affected by international conflicts, the silicomanganese price fluctuated upward during the day. The tender inquiry price of a large steel mill in the north was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared with May. The inventory level decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production began to increase. The manganese ore inventory accumulation speed increased, and the price is under further pressure, but the price - holding intention of manganese mines has increased. The silicomanganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [5] Ferrosilicon - Affected by international conflicts, the ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward during the day. The futures and options trading of ferrosilicon is open to qualified overseas investors. The molten iron output decreased slightly, the export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. The metal magnesium production increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The inventory decreased slightly. The ferrosilicon is temporarily bullish in the short term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the intensified Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the crude oil price first soared and then declined, and the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly accordingly. The planned production cuts of bottle chips increased, and the polyester industry chain was under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation [1]. - Regarding the cost side, the recent oil price has risen sharply due to the intensified Middle - East conflict. If the conflict causes more damage to energy facilities or affects the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may face further upward risks; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline again. The gasoline cracking spread in the US has retracted, and the blending demand is not promising. The PX short - process plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 234 dollars/ton (with no change from the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has generally increased recently, but it will decline again in July. The tight supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was 231 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the spot processing fee was 310 yuan/ton (a 70 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The PTA load continued to increase this week, and the supply became more abundant. It is expected that the PTA spot price will oscillate following the cost side in the short term [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.9% (a 0.2% decrease from the previous period). The terminal orders have weakened again since late May, and the downstream operating rates have declined slightly. The polyester load has remained stable recently after a decline, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was - 26 yuan/ton (a 26 - yuan increase from the previous period). The price will remain high under the low inventory of short - fiber factories and the operation to maintain the processing margin [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 309 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip price increased following the raw materials, but the new order procurement enthusiasm of overseas customers was not high due to the high ocean freight in June. The inventory pressure of polyester bottle - chip factories has increased again. The production cuts of major factories are being implemented, and the processing fee is expected to face pressure in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests that PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short term under the Israel - Iran conflict, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and further production - cut actions of polyester and the geopolitical conflict need to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East - China spot basis and the basis of 1.56D*38mm semi - dull pure - white short fibers [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, the spread between South Korean FOB toluene and Japanese CFR naphtha, and the PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - It provides information on the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [29][32][33]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are presented [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It shows the production and sales of filaments and short fibers, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Also, the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments are provided [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester short - fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, the operating rates and production profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and the spread between raw and recycled polyester short fibers [73][81][83]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It presents the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and the price spreads between different periods of bottle chips [90][92][97].