1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, short - term price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games, while long - term prices are expected to gradually rise but with limited upside potential. For the egg industry, short - term prices may increase seasonally during the Spring Festival, but long - term supply pressure remains. In the corn market, short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term prices are supported at the bottom but with limited upward movement [5][61][100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Market Review - In December, pig prices first stabilized and then rose. Spot prices increased due to factors like the release of second - fattening and epidemic pigs, and terminal consumption growth. Futures prices also rebounded, with the 03 contract's premium increasing and the basis strengthening. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume declined, and spot prices stagnated and fell [7][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows is gradually being reduced but remains above the normal level. Pig production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be high. Pig inventory is slowly increasing, and the proportion of standard and large pigs is rising. The monthly average slaughter weight is at a high level in the same period [11][16][24]. 3.1.3 Demand - In December, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume may decline, but it may increase again in January due to Spring Festival stocking. The frozen product inventory is at a high level, and its support for consumption has weakened, and it may suppress supply before and after the Spring Festival [34][38][41]. 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - Pig prices rebounded in December, and breeding losses narrowed. Feed and piglet prices fluctuated slightly, and the long - term fattening cost remained low [44]. 3.1.5 Policy - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. It requires the top 25 large enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January, lower the weight, and prohibit second - fattening. The state mainly conducts reserve rotation [50]. 3.1.6 Driving Summary - Short - term: Price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games. Long - term: The price in the first half of the year is not optimistic, and the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but the increase is limited [53][54]. 3.1.7 Valuation - Near - term contracts are undervalued, and far - term contracts are neutrally valued [55]. 3.1.8 Strategy - For near - term contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy when prices rebound. For far - term contracts, be cautious about a bullish outlook, and the industry can hedge at a profit [5]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Market Review - In December, egg prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the futures price mainly declined, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. The current main contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a low level in the same period [67]. 3.2.2 Supply - The number of newly opened - laying hens in January is average. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the overall supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the number of newly opened - laying hens from February to May 2026 is expected to decrease, but the supply pressure relief needs time [61][63]. 3.2.3 Demand - In January, as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to improve. The high cost - performance of eggs also drives substitution demand [63]. 3.2.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: Egg prices are expected to rise during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to sufficient supply. Long - term: Supply pressure is expected to gradually ease, but it takes time, and attention should be paid to culling and external factors [91][92]. 3.2.5 Valuation - The current basis is low, and the overall valuation is high [94]. 3.2.6 Strategy - Do not short the market in the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [63]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Market Review - In December, corn prices rose and fell alternately. The spot price had strong support at the bottom, and the futures price first fell and then rose. The current main contract has a discount to the spot, and the basis is at a high level in the same period [100][101][104]. 3.3.2 Supply - The national grain sales progress is 45%, and the supply in the producing areas has slowed down. The import of corn in November increased, and the inventory in the north and south ports changed. The 2025/2026 corn supply is expected to be in balance with demand, with limited upward price space [100][105][107]. 3.3.3 Demand - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the rigid demand for feed. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the demand for wheat as a substitute may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high product inventory [100][115][126]. 3.3.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: There is still selling pressure to be released. Long - term: The cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [100]. 3.3.5 Valuation - The futures price is at a relatively low level, and the basis is at a high level in the same period, with a neutral - low valuation [135]. 3.3.6 Strategy - Be cautious about chasing high in the short - term, and grain - holding entities can hedge when prices rebound. In the long - term, the demand will gradually be released, but the increase is limited [100].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's manufacturing PMI is expected to rebound by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% by December 2025, returning to the expansion zone, driven by the continuous implementation of policies and pre-Spring Festival stocking [1] - In 2026, with ongoing domestic policy support and measures to reduce competition, the profitability of the manufacturing sector is anticipated to recover, leading to an improvement in overall demand for upstream machinery and equipment [1] - The humanoid robot sector is projected to see significant growth, with domestic shipments expected to exceed 18,000 units by 2025, and a company named Lingxin Qiaoshou completing A++ round financing, becoming the only global company to mass-produce over 1,000 high-degree-of-freedom dexterous hands, capturing over 80% of the global market share [1] Group 2 - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects 50 listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and key component production to reflect the overall performance of the machine tool manufacturing industry [1] - The index constituents exhibit a small and mid-cap style, primarily concentrated in the machinery equipment sector, while also encompassing listed companies in information technology and raw materials [1]

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 受假期天数增加影响，元旦出行、零售数据或实现较高增长，出入境、免税退税景气度更高。往后看，今年将经历最长"元旦+春节"假期（共12天，较去年增 加3天），或需关注其对宏观数据环比读数的影响。 一、假期天数增加，推动出行数据高增 今年元旦假期共3天，去年仅为1天，且部分游客选择"请3休8"的超长拼假模式，进一步放大了差异。据交通运输部数据，假期3天，全社会跨区域人员流动量 同比增长19.62%。 分出行方式看 ：1）游客或更多为中短途出行。民航增速相对较低为10%。2）中长途出行中，出入境景气度更高。国家移民局数据显示，出入境人数增长近 3成。 二、商品零售高增，但地区冷暖不均 从地区数据看，假期商品零售高增，但地区间差异明显。北京、河北、湖北武汉、湖南（双位数增长）>江苏南京苏州、山东青岛（8%-10%）>上海、四川 （分别为2.5%、0.9%）。（注：上海、河北、四川为前两日数据、其他为假期三天） 免税退税商品实现更高增长。据海口海关统计，假期三天，海南离岛免税购物金额同比+128 ...

| | | | | | | | H色合属状性能 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/05 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 7000 | | | - 1000 | | | (元 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the current economic environment is insufficient effective demand, rather than simply supply-side issues or "involution" competition [2][4] - The recent decline in prices is primarily attributed to a lack of effective demand, which leads to lower capacity utilization and contributes to price "involution" [2][3] - The central government emphasizes the need to fully unleash economic growth potential, which fundamentally aims to improve capacity utilization [2] Group 2 - Consumers have a dual identity as both consumers and laborers, where lower prices may not always be beneficial for their income and job stability [4] - Continuous price "involution" can lead to reduced corporate profits, which in turn affects laborers' income and employment stability [4] - The central government's call to "promote reasonable price recovery" considers the balance between consumer and laborer interests [4] Group 3 - Economic development requires a virtuous cycle from production to distribution to consumption and circulation [5] - A macroeconomic perspective is essential to avoid misinterpretations of issues that can arise from a purely microeconomic view [5] - Achieving a balance in supply and demand and fostering positive interactions between them is key to healthy economic development [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - **Alumina**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Sugar**: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Apples**: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **PVC**: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - **Glass**: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - **Crude Oil**: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Soda Ash**: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where companies are experiencing increased production without corresponding profit growth. The industry's operating revenue profit margin has declined from 8.03% in 2021 to an expected 4.85% in 2024. However, since 2025, some sub-industries have begun to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 10.56% in net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters, indicating a gradual stabilization and recovery in industry profitability [2][3]. Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry has turned negative since June 2025, with capital expenditures in the basic chemical industry and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. In September, policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry were introduced to address low-price and disorderly competition and to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Sub-industries such as silicone, caprolactam, and PTA polyester have responded to these "anti-involution" measures by either issuing or formulating industry guidelines. It is anticipated that there will be stricter approvals for new chemical product capacities, and the elimination of backward production capacity (such as small scale, high energy consumption, and high pollution) will accelerate, effectively alleviating the issue of supply surplus in the petrochemical industry [2][3]. Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a moderate recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand from sectors such as new energy, SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), and AI continues to drive the need for key chemical materials that support technological upgrades in industries [3]. - The overseas chemical capacity reduction, driven by high energy costs and aging facilities, has led to a wave of plant closures in the European chemical industry since 2025. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, with a well-established domestic petrochemical industry chain. As overseas capacity continues to clear and demand is expected to recover, Chinese chemical companies are likely to see an increase in global market share, accelerating the digestion of surplus capacity [3]. Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of December 2025, the manufacturing PMI index was reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion. The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3927 points, a decrease of 9.4% from 4333 points at the beginning of the year, reflecting a decline in the ex-factory prices of major chemical products [3]. Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with Brent crude futures averaging approximately $69.15 per barrel and WTI crude futures averaging about $65.87 per barrel. This fluctuation was influenced by a combination of factors, including OPEC+'s gradual production increases, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic sentiment. OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases at the beginning of 2026 to alleviate surplus pressures after a cumulative increase of 411,000 barrels per day from October to December. The demand from non-OECD countries, along with aviation fuel and petrochemical raw material needs, has become a major support for oil prices. Major institutions have narrowed their demand growth expectations for 2025-2026 to a range of 700,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. Investment Recommendations - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in overall profits due to moderate oil prices and reduced cost fluctuations. The industry is also experiencing a shift towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals," supported by clear anti-involution policy signals. Recommended companies include China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][6]. - In the potassium fertilizer sector, potassium salt resources are expected to remain scarce, with a tight balance in global supply and demand over the next 2-3 years. Recommended company: Yara International, which holds significant potassium salt mining rights in Laos [6]. - In the phosphorus chemical sector, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in energy storage is expected to enhance the marginal pull on phosphorus ore demand, leading to a revaluation of phosphorus ore. Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua [6]. - In the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, the EU has mandated a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios, with global SAF demand expected to double to 2 million tons by 2025. Recommended company: Zhuoyue New Energy, a leading domestic biodiesel enterprise [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry in 2025 is characterized by a "reversal," with a shift from irrational competition and price wars to a more regulated and innovative landscape [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Regulation and Order - The internal forces seeking order have awakened, leading to a collective consensus against "involution" in the industry, with various government departments implementing measures to regulate competition [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other agencies have introduced comprehensive governance measures to address irrational competition, resulting in a significant reduction in promotional pricing and discounts in the passenger car market [1][2]. Group 2: Corporate Integration and Efficiency - Major automotive companies are undergoing integration to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, as seen with Geely's integration of Zeekr and NIO's consolidation of brands [2]. - The trend of corporate integration reflects a consensus among automakers to pool resources and strengthen their competitive positions in the market [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Innovation is driving the industry forward, with advancements in technology making features like assisted driving more accessible, as evidenced by a 64% penetration rate of combined assisted driving vehicles in the new car market [3]. - The automotive industry's boundaries are blurring as companies expand into areas like robotics and smart devices, indicating a long-term evolution of technology and business models [3]. Group 4: Market Expansion and Globalization - Incentive policies such as trade-in programs are effectively stimulating the existing market, while the expansion of charging networks and sales channels is awakening the potential of county-level markets [4]. - China's automotive exports reached 6.343 million units in the first 11 months of the year, marking an 18.7% year-on-year increase, with a shift towards new export models like technology and localized production [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to continue addressing "involution" in 2026, with new guidelines being introduced to ensure compliance in pricing behavior [5]. - The industry aims to achieve stable growth while navigating uncertainties such as policy changes and international market conditions, striving for a more competitive and resilient automotive landscape [6].

Group 1 - In 2025, global macroeconomic uncertainty drove structural market trends, with rising prices for precious and industrial metals, and a "slow bull" market in A-shares supported by relative certainty [3][4] - The performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals was influenced by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors, leading to significant price increases [3][4] - The "strong stocks, weak bonds" trend characterized the market, with equity markets performing well, particularly in hard technology sectors like AI and non-ferrous metals [4][9] Group 2 - In 2026, the global market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on growth and inflation driving asset allocation, influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the progress of AI technology [6][8] - The anticipated economic growth center for 2026 is around 2.6%, with key macro variables including U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][8] - The demand for metals such as copper, silver, and aluminum is expected to rise due to the AI industry's growth, although supply-side growth may lag, leading to potential price volatility [9][11] Group 3 - The commodity market in 2026 is projected to remain strong under "macro easing and micro improvement," but trading logic will differ across various commodities [11] - The chemical sector, particularly in photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, may see price recoveries if supply-side reforms are implemented [11][12] - The recommendation for 2026 asset allocation is to actively hold quality equity assets while managing risks, as market fluctuations are expected in the latter half of the year [12]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei forecasts that by 2026, nominal GDP growth and a narrowing decline in PPI will drive corporate revenue growth, with overall A-share company profit growth expected to rise to 8% [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The current equity risk premium in the A-share market remains above historical averages, while other emerging markets are significantly below long-term averages [1] - Mid-term macro policies, accelerated A-share profit growth, declining risk-free interest rates, and continuous inflow of long-term funds into the stock market will support further valuation increases in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: 1. The main theme of technological self-reliance 2. The consumer sector, with corporate profit acceleration expected to gradually boost household income and sales expenses, suggesting a strategic layout in the second half of the year 3. Sectors related to "anti-involution" 4. The pathway of Chinese enterprises going global and enhancing global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Style Allocation - Due to the positive mid-term market outlook, the "growth" style is likely to outperform the "value" style - With the ongoing "anti-involution" process, a narrowing decline in PPI and accelerated industrial profit growth suggest that the "cyclical" style may outperform the "defensive" style, with large and small-cap sectors expected to maintain a relatively balanced stance in 2026 [1]