Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - **Long Positions**: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - **Short Positions**: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - **Hold and Observe**: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - **Precious Metals**: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - **Agricultural Products**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - **Special Commodities**: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories **Equity Index Futures** - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] **Treasury Bond Futures** - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] **Precious Metals Futures** - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] **Container Shipping Index Futures** - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] **Black Metal Futures** - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] **Non - ferrous Metal Futures** - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Crude Oil**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - **Chemicals**: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] **Agricultural Product Futures** - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] **Special Commodity Futures** - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton prices are expected to oscillate, while Zhengzhou cotton has limited upside due to factors like new cotton supply and weak demand [2][3] - For sugar, the global sugar market anticipates an increase in production. Zhengzhou sugar prices will likely be range - bound in the short term and in a downward cycle in the long term [5][6] - For pulp, short - term macro - sentiment boosts prices, but supply pressure and weak demand will keep prices at a low level in the near future [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.28%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 20, the budding rate was 71%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 57%, 4 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is weak, and the global cotton market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. US cotton prices will oscillate [2] - Domestic: Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the quota is not issued, and imports will be low. However, new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is weak [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton 09 may rise, but the 01 contract has limited upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.27%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India: As of mid - July 2025, India exported 65 - 70 million tons of sugar, aiming for 80 million tons by September [4] Market Analysis - International: The market is trading the expectation of global sugar production increase, and the upside of raw sugar is limited [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar prices are firm, but imports are increasing, and there is pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, trade within the range; in the long term, sell on rallies [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,368 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,285 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is affected by the off - season. Terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, pulp prices may stay at the bottom. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - **Trend strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - **Macro and industry news**: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - **Macro and industry news**: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental data**: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - **Trend strength**: 0 [22] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - **Trend strength**: 0 [26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, be vigilant about sentiment reversal [2][6] - Soybean oil: Follows the oil and fat sector, relatively weak among varieties [2][6] - Soybean meal: Market sentiment is strong, the market fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Soybean: Technically, it fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Corn: Runs in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: Conducts narrow - range consolidation [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to market sentiment changes [2][26] - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][33] - Pigs: Macro sentiment is strong, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][35] - Peanuts: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][39] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,926 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,954 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease, and night - session closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: UOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 5 - 9%. MPOC expected next month's crude palm oil price to be between 4,100 - 4,300 Malaysian ringgit. SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 35.99% compared to the previous month [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 0, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4232 yuan/ton with a 1.34% increase, and night - session closing price was 4241 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3086 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase, and night - session closing price was 3092 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 22, CBOT soybeans fell due to good Midwest weather and focus on trade negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is +1 (only for the daily - session main - contract futures price on the report day) [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,322 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decrease [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, container collection port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.26 cents/pound with a 0.1 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 6040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan approved importing 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's crushing progress was slow, but MIX increased significantly year - on - year [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and night - session closing price was 14235 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market's demand was insufficient. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2508's closing price was 3,574 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.17% increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [33]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14430 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14380 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan increase [35]. - **Market Logic**: Currently in the consumption off - season, the spot price has dropped rapidly. Wait for end - of - month confirmation. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is 0 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: PK510's closing price was 8,140 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [39]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, raw material acquisitions are basically over, and inventory trading is the main activity, with prices generally stable [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [41].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was strong, rising and then falling, and pulling up again at the end of the session, mainly affected by macro - level sentiment. The inventory of nickel ore arriving in ports from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore, and there was limited driving force for short - term price increases at the ore end. The transaction price of ferronickel decreased again during the day, but the latest transactions of iron plants in August showed a certain upward shift. With the stabilization of ferronickel, it would support the subsequent downstream prices. Stainless steel was also affected by the market and showed a strong trend. Large manufacturers still had the sentiment of reducing production, and spot prices generally followed the increase, but the policy had limited actual impact on stainless steel, and the spot - end transactions did not improve significantly with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3]. - There were positive factors such as the continuation of the cobalt mine ban in Congo, Indonesia's APNI's plan to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt, shortening the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, potential impact of Indonesia - US tariff negotiations on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming release of the growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Negative factors included stainless steel entering the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction [4]. - The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepened, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The inventory of pure nickel was high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore increased, weakening the bottom support [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai Nickel was 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - For inventory management, when the product sales price declined and there was a risk of inventory value reduction, one could short Shanghai Nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2; or buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3. For procurement management, when the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it could sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1; or buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2]. Market Data Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest values of Shanghai Nickel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 123,530, 123,720, 123,810, and 124,050 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.83%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M was at 15,510 US dollars/ton, up 0.85%. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, down 19.11%, the open interest was 35,618 lots, down 14.21%, the number of warehouse receipts was 22,093 tons, down 0.08%, and the basis of the main contract was - 1,250 yuan/ton, up 197.6% [5]. - For stainless steel, the latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 12,930, 12,930, 12,960, and 13,005 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0%, 0.19%, 0.15%, and 0.19%. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, down 24.69%, the open interest was 124,058 lots, up 1.17%, the number of warehouse receipts was 103,475 tons, down 0.12%, and the basis of the main contract was 240 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [6]. Inventory Data - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 tons, an increase of 216 tons; the stainless steel social inventory was 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons; and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices, which confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The report is waiting for the spot price verification at the end of the month. Recently, the macro - sentiment is strong, and the implementation of policies should be monitored. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,890 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 230 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,110 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 290 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 60,032 lots, an increase of 31,070 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,259 lots, an increase of 600 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 25,211 lots, an increase of 16,970 lots, and an open interest of 44,029 lots, an increase of 126 lots; the Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 24,904 lots, an increase of 19,029 lots, and an open interest of 29,487 lots, an increase of 5,388 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The Pig 2509 basis is 115 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 basis is 370 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 240 yuan/ton; the Pig 9 - 11 spread is 495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. The classification of strength includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 120,300 yuan/ton and closed at 122,550 yuan/ton, a change of 1.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 134,799 lots, and the open interest was 41,520 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened slightly lower at night, then rose rapidly and oscillated horizontally. During the day session, it oscillated upwards, slightly declined in the afternoon, and closed with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [2]. - The spot market saw an upward adjustment in the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel by about 1,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotes of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the futures market rose strongly, but the demand did not show obvious growth. The premium remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The spot trading was average [2]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,111 (551.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,876 (300) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of nickel have not improved, the nickel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The strategy for nickel is to be cautiously bullish on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,735 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 255,058 lots, and the open interest was 122,622 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher at night, rose rapidly, and then declined slightly in the second half of the night. During the day session, it rose rapidly to a new high and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [3]. - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold successively in August, and a mine has offered a quote of 1.3% FOB 31, which is lower than the previous period. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to the production cuts of smelters in local industrial parks. Currently, the nickel ore supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) has decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat compared with the previous period [3]. - There are obvious price differences in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from +23 to +28, but +24 is still the mainstream premium. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing nickel ice, and some small smelters have cut production. Some domestic smelters have also stopped production [4]. - According to Mysteel's research, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in China has remained stable at 900 - 905 yuan/nickel. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, driving most spot prices up, and the market inquiry atmosphere has improved. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 12,900 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 55 to 255 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 901.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, the stainless steel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,750.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.35% [1] - The cost support for synthetic rubber is strengthening, driven by rising macroeconomic sentiment and sector optimism, leading to an upward movement in prices [1] - The main contract support level is identified at 11,300-11,400 CNY, with resistance at 11,900-12,000 CNY [1] Group 2 - Recent price resistance for raw material butadiene is evident, leading to weakened cost support for styrene-butadiene rubber, while domestic supply is expected to increase due to the restart of several production facilities [2] - The overall production capacity utilization rate for tire manufacturers is recovering, with production levels stabilizing and a slight increase in orders expected in mid to late July [2] - The BR2509 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,500-12,000 CNY in the short term [2]