Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend driven by large financial institutions and industries related to capacity reduction, but there are signs of increasing divergence after a period of growth [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a long upper shadow on Friday, indicating that despite strong market sentiment, there may be increasing divergence after consecutive gains [2][4] - Short-term performance of banks and micro-trading has seen a decline in value, suggesting a potential shift towards mid-cap stocks and technology growth sectors supported by earnings [2][4] Stock Market Factors - The small-cap growth style outperformed last week, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles remained at a near one-year low [6][8] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices remained at a near one-year low, with an increase in the speed of industry rotation and a higher proportion of rising constituent stocks [6][8] - The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, while the trading concentration of the top five industries increased [6][8] Market Activity - Market volatility slightly decreased last week, while turnover rates continued to rise [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - The trend strength of the precious metals sector remained at a near one-year high, while other sectors experienced varying degrees of decline in trend strength [17][20] - The basis momentum decreased in all sectors except for the black metal sector, indicating a mixed performance across commodities [17][20] - Liquidity across all sectors increased, suggesting improved market conditions [17][20] Options Market Factors - Implied volatility levels for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 showed an upward trend, indicating improved market sentiment following the index's breakthrough of the 3500-point key level [24] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market showed a significant increase in trading volume, with the premium rate for bonds nearing the peak seen in early May [28] - However, the proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has increased, reflecting market divergence [28]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The conference call focuses on market sentiment and industry trends, specifically analyzing various market indicators and their implications for investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment Analysis**: The current market sentiment is observed to be low, with no significant indicators suggesting a recovery. The overall market is in a downtrend, and the probability of further decline is high [3][6][13]. 2. **Indicators of Market Activity**: The industry trading volatility indicator remains at 0, indicating low trading activity compared to previous periods. This suggests a lack of investor engagement and market momentum [3][5]. 3. **Negative Signals from PCR and VIX**: The PCR and VIX indicators are also at low levels, contributing to negative market sentiment. These indicators have been consistently low over the past two weeks [4][6]. 4. **Financing Balance Indicator**: The financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization has dropped significantly, indicating a bearish trend in market sentiment. This indicator has shifted from a score of 1 to 0, reflecting a substantial decline [4][5]. 5. **Sector Performance**: The sectors showing the most significant gains over the past two weeks include telecommunications, media, and textiles, while sectors like household appliances and food and beverage have seen consistent declines [8][10]. 6. **Trend Analysis**: The trend analysis indicates that the market lacks a clear upward trajectory, with many sectors exhibiting weak performance. The overall trend is characterized by a lack of strong bullish signals [9][12]. 7. **Growth vs. Value Styles**: There is a noted divergence between growth and value styles, with growth currently showing a slight advantage. However, the overall differentiation remains weak [11][12]. 8. **Small-Cap Dominance**: The small-cap style is currently favored, with a significant distance in the RSI indicating a stronger trend compared to larger caps [12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty**: The market is influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, particularly regarding tariff negotiations between the US and China. These uncertainties are contributing to the current market sentiment [6][13]. 2. **Expectation of Market Recovery**: There is skepticism regarding the potential for a quick recovery in market sentiment without significant catalysts or unexpected positive developments [7][13]. 3. **Investment Strategy Outlook**: The overall investment strategy is advised to remain cautious, focusing on a volatile and oscillating market rather than expecting rapid upward movements [7][13].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have decreased by 0.42% to 774.92 RMB per gram, while international gold prices have slightly increased by 0.01% to 3337.1 USD per ounce, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by various factors [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is a significant driver of gold price fluctuations, with threats of high tariffs on the EU and Mexico raising concerns about global trade dynamics [2]. - The EU's potential retaliatory tariffs could exacerbate inflation, which would be favorable for gold prices, although short-term market sentiment remains cautious as investors await more details [2]. - Trump's announcement of sending tariff letters to smaller countries, with rates possibly exceeding 10%, may provide some support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Policy - The U.S. June CPI showed the largest month-on-month increase since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a projected reduction of about 44 basis points by year-end [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 53%, and Powell's vigilance regarding inflation suggests a cautious approach from the Fed [3]. - The moderate rise in inflation data did not exceed expectations, resulting in a stronger dollar index and a six-week high in U.S. Treasury yields, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The gold market is experiencing frequent short-term volatility, with key technical levels such as 3375 USD acting as strong resistance and the 3330-3350 USD range serving as significant support [4]. - Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await clarity on tariff policies and economic data, with speculative positions impacting price movements [4]. - Retail investors are advised to be cautious of chasing prices, as this could lead to unfavorable outcomes [4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to be influenced by tariff policies, inflation data, and market sentiment, leading to significant volatility [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies provides both support as a safe haven and pressure due to market caution [5]. - Long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases, increasing demand for gold, and its properties as a hedge against inflation are expected to support gold prices, with a potential for upward movement in the long run [5].

摩根大通(JPM.N)首席财务官：市场情绪有所改善，但可能一夜之间发生变化。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Pork**: In the short - term, the price will fluctuate within a narrow range; in the medium - term, it shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Suggest selling at high prices [1][2]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, it will have a small rebound; in the medium - term, it will rise first and then fall. Suggest selling at high prices [3][4]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it will oscillate upwards; in the medium - term, it will face pressure. Suggest selling out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [5][7]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 4900 - 5100; in the medium - term, the upside space is limited. Suggest shorting after the upward trend ends [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Supply**: There is a theoretical low point in supply from July to August, but long - term supply remains high. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of new piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, and the supply pressure from April to September 2025 will increase [1]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, the slaughtering start - up rate was 25.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. Terminal consumption is weak [1]. - **Outlook**: There may be a price increase from July to August, but the high point may be lower than last year. In the fourth quarter, the price may fall, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [2]. Sugar - **International**: Overseas macro factors cause disturbances. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 420 million tons [3]. - **Domestic**: The sales progress is fast. The spot price has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar is positive [4]. - **Outlook**: Zhengzhou sugar will follow the small rebound of raw sugar. In the medium - term, the price increase is limited, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production in August by 548,000 barrels per day and may further increase by about 550,000 barrels per day on August 3. The U.S. production growth will slow down in the long - term [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the U.S., the refinery start - up rate has approached 95%, and gasoline demand has exceeded 9 million barrels per day. In China, the main refinery start - up rate is at a five - year high, while the local refinery profit is low [6]. - **Inventory**: U.S. crude oil inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and it will accumulate at the end of the third quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is upward momentum; in the medium - term, it will face pressure [7]. PVC - **Cost**: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased [8]. - **Supply**: The industry start - up rate has decreased slightly, but new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year [8]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is expected to weaken, and export orders are decreasing [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Outlook**: The current price increase is mainly due to improved macro sentiment, but the upward momentum is limited [9].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 75, categorized as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive market outlook and potential for upward movement in stock prices [6][10]. - The report highlights three key themes: robotics, RDA (Real Data Assets), and innovative pharmaceuticals, each with specific developments and related stocks [7]. - In the robotics sector, significant contracts have been awarded, such as a 124 million yuan project for humanoid biped robots, indicating growth potential in this industry [7]. Group 2 - The RDA theme emphasizes the integration of real data with physical assets, enhancing the verification and value of these assets, which could lead to investment opportunities in related companies [7]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals theme is supported by new measures from the National Medical Insurance Administration to promote high-quality development, which may benefit companies in this sector [7]. - The report lists specific stocks related to each theme, such as Wolong Electric Drive and Changsheng Bearing for robotics, Tongxingbao and Wanda Information for RDA, and Heng Rui Medicine and Bei Da Pharmaceutical for innovative drugs [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - This week, steel price fluctuations increased again, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices and a weakening of the basis. The black prices started to stabilize in June due to environmental inspections and production cuts in coking coal. Market sentiment improved in July, leading to a general increase in commodities. The fundamentals show that weekly steel production decreased with the decline in apparent demand, and inventory remained flat in July, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply will remain abundant, resulting in insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation repair trading, but the upward elasticity of actual demand is limited. The next macro observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract showed a strong upward trend. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to decline. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and production restrictions in Tangshan, the pig iron output decreased from its high level but remained at around 240,000 tons per day. In the short term, the resilience of pig iron production will be maintained. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off-season, the current export rush provides some support. In the future, the pig iron output in July will continue to decline, with an average expected to be maintained at 230,000 - 240,000 tons, and steel mill profits will continue to improve. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for single-side operations and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long operation. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coke and coking coal futures showed strong upward trends. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts was implemented on June 23, and the market expects the first round of price increases to be implemented soon. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants have resumed production, but the overall production recovery is slow. On the demand side, due to environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, the operating rates of independent coking plants and blast furnaces decreased slightly. In July, the pig iron output may remain at 230,000 - 240,000 tons per day. For coking coal, the spot market showed a bottoming - out and rebound trend. The overall production recovery of coal mines was slow, and the supply was still in short supply. The price of imported Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure decreased. It is recommended to conduct a calendar spread long operation for both coke and coking coal and buy on dips for single - side operations. [7] 3. Summary by Catalog Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts increased to varying degrees. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and plate billets increased, and the costs of different types of steel production also changed. The profits of steel products in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 50 yuan/ton to 223 yuan/ton. [1] Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.2 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 12.4 tons to 872.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products remained basically unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory and a slight increase in hot - rolled coil inventory. [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 tons to 10.1 tons, a decrease of 12.7%. The apparent demands of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased. [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to - 47.0, an increase of 1.1%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 to 27.5, a decrease of 1.8%. [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 120.9 tons to 2483.9 tons, an increase of 5.1%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 362.7 tons to 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 tons to 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased slightly. [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 56.8 tons to 13765.89 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 61.1 tons to 8979.6 tons, an increase of 0.7%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of coke and coking coal futures increased, and the basis of different contracts decreased. For example, the coke 09 contract increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased by 16 yuan/ton to 897 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased. The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly. [7] Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills also decreased. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant inventory and an increase in the port inventory. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the inventories of the full - sample coking plants and ports increased. [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Although recently affected by rising oil prices and positive domestic commodity sentiment, its rebound is under pressure due to postponed domestic plant maintenance, recovering overseas supply, potential PTA plant maintenance, and weakening terminal demand. However, considering future PTA plant startups, its supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it has support at low levels. The PX09 is expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: In July, its supply - demand is expected to be weak due to general plant maintenance, expected new plant startups, strong downstream polyester plant production cuts, and weakening terminal demand. Its absolute price rebound is under pressure, and it is expected to trade in the range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: With the increase in supply from domestic and overseas plants, its supply is turning loose. Although the polyester and terminal loads are declining, the cost side is strong, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is expected to trade in the range of 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: Its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts of bottle - chip plants and downstream follow - up [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. In July, the supply pressure is not large, and the de - stocking situation has improved. There is a lack of strong driving forces for both, and they should be traded within a range. The LP spread can be taken profit at around 250 [7]. Urea Industry The core drivers from the fundamental and macro - news aspects are the market confidence boost brought by the Indian tender price. The short - term market has expectations for export benefits. With support from agricultural and industrial demand and partial alleviation of supply pressure by maintenance plans, the short - term market shows an upward - fluctuating trend. However, the sustainability of demand is to be observed, and long positions should not be over - chased [10]. Crude Oil Industry The main logic for the oil price increase is geopolitical risks and supply interruption expectations. Although the EIA inventory is still accumulating, the refined oil crack spread is strong, and refinery processing demand exists. The oil price is likely to run strongly in the short term, and the WTI is expected to trade in the range of [64, 70] dollars/barrel, Brent in [67, 72] dollars/barrel, and SC in [510, 535] yuan/barrel [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand contradiction is limited. High profits stimulate high production, and the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. However, the trading activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and sporadic premium transactions have occurred. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [40]. - PVC: The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, but the supply - demand pattern has entered the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is difficult to see a sharp price decline in the short term due to the positive macro - atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see [40]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Recently, it has rebounded significantly at low levels due to strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity market sentiment. In July, its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and high port inventory. The rebound space may be restricted, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side and conduct spread reverse arbitrage [42]. - Styrene: The industry profit is good, and the industry operating rate is high. However, due to the increasing losses of some downstream industries and high finished - product inventory, its supply - demand is expected to weaken. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity atmosphere, its increase is limited. Short - selling opportunities above 7500 yuan/ton for EB08 can be considered [42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price dropped by 2.5%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. [2] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, WTI crude oil (August) rose by 2.8%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [2] PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) dropped by 1.3%, etc. [2] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price dropped by 0.5%, TA futures 2509 dropped by 0.9%, etc. [2] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations MEG port inventory increased by 6.4%, and the arrival expectation decreased by 36.0% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes The Asian PX operating rate dropped by 0.5%, the Chinese PX operating rate increased by 0.3%, etc. [2] Polyolefin Industry Futures Contract Prices L2601 closed at 7278 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; PP2601 closed at 7054 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, etc. [7] Spot Prices East - China PP拉丝 spot price dropped by 0.42%, North - China LDPE film material spot price remained unchanged, etc. [7] Inventory and Operating Rates PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48%, PP device operating rate dropped by 1.1%, etc. [7] Urea Industry Futures Contract Prices The methanol main contract dropped by 1.17%, 01 contract rose by 0.06%, etc. [10] Spot Prices Shandong (small - particle) urea spot price remained unchanged, etc. [10] Supply and Demand Data Domestic urea weekly production increased by 1.12%, domestic urea plant - level inventory decreased by 4.99%, etc. [10] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads Brent rose by 0.23%, WTI rose by 0.16%, Brent M1 - M3 rose by 1.45%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads NYM RBOB rose by 0.04%, NYM ULSD rose by 0.60%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Crack Spreads US gasoline crack spread dropped by 0.33%, European diesel crack spread rose by 5.77%, etc. [13] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - 100% price remained unchanged, East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained unchanged, etc. [36] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits FOB East - China port caustic soda price dropped by 3.8%, PVC export profit increased by 11.2%, etc. [36][37] Supply and Demand Data Caustic soda industry operating rate dropped by 0.4%, PVC total operating rate dropped by 1.9%, etc. [38] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [42] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads Styrene East - China spot price dropped by 1.3%, EB futures 2508 dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42] Styrene Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows EPS ordinary material (East - China) rose by 1.8%, PS (East - China) rose by 0.4%, etc. [42] Inventory and Operating Rates Pure benzene East - China port inventory increased by 6.7%, styrene operating rate dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、通胀数据有点冷，如何影响市场? 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 实际上，市场情绪依然不错。今天沪深两市成交量约为1.5万亿，相比昨天仍在小幅恢复，说明市场情 绪仍在向上回暖的过程中，整体趋势并未被破坏。 接下来，沿着我们的方法论，梳理三条逻辑线，看看各个方向上有哪些最新动向。 第一条逻辑线是宏观基本面。今天发布了一个重要数据，即6月份的通胀数据，包括CPI和PPI。CPI代 表居民感受到的通胀水平，PPI则代表企业端感受到的物价上涨程度。CPI同比上涨0.1%，但环比数据 仍在下降，下降了0.1%。因此，数据并未明显改善，只能说没有继续恶化。对于资本市场而言，许多 消费板块的投资者或许可以稍微松一口气，毕竟数据没有继续大幅下滑，这已经算是一个好消息。但这 也并不足以支撑这些赛道继续向上。 我们再来看另一个数据，即企业能够感受到的商品销售价格，也就是PPI。PPI环比下降了0.4%，同比下 降幅度高达3.6%，这个数据比大家预期的要差一些。这 ...