Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

*业期现日报 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯华东现货价 | 7920.0 | 8035.0 | -115.0 | -1.4% | | | EB2507 | 7589.0 | 7640.0 | -51.0 | -0.7% | | | EB2508 | 7482.0 | 7526.0 | -44.0 | -0.6% | 元/吨 | | EB基差 | 331.0 | 395.0 | -64.0 | -16.2% | | | EB月差 | 107.0 | 114.0 | -7.0 | -6.1% | | 本乙烯海外报价&进口利润 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯CFR中国 | 930.0 | 942.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | 美元/吨 | | 苯乙烯FOB韩国 | 920.0 | 932.0 | -12.0 | -1.3% | | | 苯乙烯 ...

煤焦：库存压力较大 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 16 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦价格整体低位震荡运行，反弹表现乏力。现货端， 产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未 有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价的持续下跌，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未 出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。上周煤矿端精煤库存 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high, so the price rebound lacks momentum [1] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the overall price of coking coal and coke has shown a bottom - rebound trend, mainly driven by factors such as large previous price drops, short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade situation. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price rebound is still under pressure [1] Spot Market - On the spot side, the coke price at the origin has been stable after the third round of price cuts since mid - May, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton in these three rounds, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Coking coal spot has also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [1] Supply - With the recent rebound in coal prices, there have been continuous news about supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production has continued a slight downward trend, but there has been no large - scale production suspension or reduction, so it cannot change the upstream inventory accumulation situation. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, and the inventory level is still at an absolute high [1] Demand - The demand for coking coal and coke has continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is relatively slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 605,000 tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in the start - up rate, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for various products: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are rated as "oscillating"; glass and soda ash are also rated as "oscillating weakly" [7][11]. Core Viewpoints - Amid frequent macro - disturbances, the prices of the black series are oscillating near the cost support level. With the approaching off - season, the demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is under pressure to decline from high levels. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices are testing for an upward movement near the support level, waiting for favorable factors, but the upward pressure is still strong [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments, which will remain high until early July. On the demand side, the profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and hot metal production is slightly decreasing but expected to remain high in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, with the arrival of ores shipped during the peak period, the port may see a slight inventory increase, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - **Coking Coal**: Recently, the output of some coal mines has slightly declined due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines in the production areas are operating normally, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply of coking coal is still loose. On the demand side, the coke output is showing signs of decline, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the coking profit is shrinking. During the price cut cycle, the coking enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal intensifies. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, so there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by steel mills has been implemented, with a reduction of 70 - 75 yuan/ton this time, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. On the supply side, the output of some coking enterprises has slightly declined due to environmental protection and maintenance, but the overall coke output remains stable. The downstream steel mills' enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is weak, and the coking enterprises' coke inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining from a high level, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, with an expectation of further decline in hot metal production. The upstream supply reduction is limited, the demand support is gradually weakening, and there is still room for the coke price to fall under the drag of cost [8][9]. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: On the cost side, the market is cautiously waiting, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of loosening. On the supply side, the production cost has been slightly repaired due to the abundant water period in Yunnan and the electricity price discount in Guangxi, and the supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased, but the manufacturers in Ningxia are still in the red, and their willingness to sell is limited. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season in the black market, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of bargaining. The supply - demand of silicomanganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is still expected to loosen. However, due to the cost - price inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to sell is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply has slightly increased. As the terminal steel use is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, the market sentiment remains cautious, and the cost may still be a drag. The future market should focus on steel procurement and production conditions, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, the demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, the mid - stream inventory has decreased, and there are rumors disturbing the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to loosen, and the sentiment fluctuates repeatedly. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led the futures price down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, the maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [5][11]. Other Products - **Steel**: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, with a significant decline in rebar demand. The hot metal production is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased much, but the hot metal production may have reached its peak. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have weakened this week, but the inventory is still decreasing. The price of the steel futures market is mainly suppressed by the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. With the resumption of Sino - US negotiations, the macro - fluctuations are magnified, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The scrap steel resources are tight, but the market is pessimistic about the off - season demand. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. It is expected that the future price will oscillate following the finished products [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and high inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive fundamental support, with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to macro-export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with high inventory pressure, slow inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. Directory Summaries Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 4,816 yuan/ton (+26), the East China basis was -136 yuan/ton (-6), and the South China basis was -26 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted 4,680 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted 4,790 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -426 yuan/ton (+121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -520 yuan/ton (-15), and the PVC export profit was 3.0 US dollars/ton (-2.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in-plant PVC inventory was 39.8 million tons (+1.4), the social PVC inventory was 36.1 million tons (-0.1), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.90% (+4.19%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 71.13% (-0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre-sale volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+8.6) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,308 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 442 yuan/ton (+27) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 935.8 yuan/ton (-120.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.21 million tons (-1.05), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.79 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.50% (-0.60%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.35% (+0.82%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.50% (-1.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (-0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply side: There are few new upstream maintenance projects, the PVC operation rate has increased month-on-month, the current output is at a high level in the same period, and it is difficult to drive a significant reduction in PVC production under the support of chlor-alkali profits. Coupled with the expected production of new capacity from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC is weakly stable, and the downstream market mainly purchases based on rigid demand, with the weak demand situation difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, the social PVC inventory continues to decline month-on-month but the de-stocking rate slows down, while the in-plant inventory accumulates. In the future, with the increase in supply and weak demand, the social inventory may slightly accumulate. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders are continuously and stably delivered, but the extension policy of the Indian BIS certification expires at the end of June, and there is currently no progress in the policy. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it is expected to drag down export demand [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply side: There are still many new maintenance projects in June, with the 1.02 million-ton capacity of Fujian Southeast Electrochemical completely shut down for maintenance, and the maintenance in Shandong has also increased. The operation rate in Shandong has declined month-on-month, but due to the acceptable chlor-alkali profits, upstream manufacturers mostly maintain high-load production. The overall caustic soda operation rate remains at a high level, and new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production from June to July, so the supply-side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: After the continuous increase in the purchase price, the delivery volume of the main downstream has significantly increased, but when the delivery volume exceeds the daily consumption and enters the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the sustainability of future inventory stocking. After the repair of the alumina production profit, the new and restarted capacities are gradually released, and the alumina operation rate has increased month-on-month, but the restart is still not obvious at present. The non-aluminum demand performance is not good, the dyeing operation rate has declined month-on-month, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase based on rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda has shifted downward [3]. Strategy - PVC: Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the continuous high supply and high inventory pressure of PVC and weak domestic demand, the fundamental lack of positive support, and limited upward driving force, currently at a low valuation with limited downward space. Continue to pay attention to macro-export policies at the export end and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a cautious short-selling hedging strategy. Currently, the comprehensive chlor-alkali profit is acceptable, the inventory is being digested but at a slow speed, the inventory pressure is high, and the overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are still expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is warming up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. Rebounds should be treated with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices was weak, and they weakened again at night. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with this round's decline increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton. Since mid - May, the three - round cumulative decline has been 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also maintained a weak and stable operation [3] Import Data - In May, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 188.722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 2.938 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [3] Domestic Coal Production - Domestic coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale shutdown or production reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 78,000 tons. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 297,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.357 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.04 million tons [3] Demand Situation - The demand for coking coal and coke continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 605,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in production, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound was still insufficient [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil: Initial Pricing of Bearish Factors, Focus on Future Production; Soybean Oil: Sino-US Relations Disturbance, Focus on New US Soybean Crop Suspense" and was released on June 8, 2025 [1][2] 2. Previous Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The bearish impact of Malaysia's unexpected production increase from April to May was gradually digested by the market. In the short term, there were no obvious contradictions, and it mainly fluctuated following the oil and fat sector affected by crude oil, China-Canada, and Sino-US relations. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.62% last week [2] Soybean Oil - The driving force in the soybean market was not obvious, and supply issues were downplayed. However, the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents in the second half of the week brought bullish sentiment to the US soybean market, leading to a strong rebound in soybean oil and soybean meal. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.31% last week [2] 3. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's production recovery from April to May will bring forward a 2 million - ton inventory level. Indonesia's inventory is expected to accumulate to over 3 million tons in April, so the inventory in the second quarter in Indonesia and Malaysia may return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents, so the origin's quotation may loosen in the third quarter [3] - Although it is judged that there is still un - released pressure in the fundamentals, there is strong support during the decline. Due to macro - allocation, oil hedging, and early layout for the second half of the year, investors' long - allocation of palm oil means that the current production increase in Malaysia from April to May cannot push the palm oil price down [3] - After the market has fully priced in the previous production increase, further bearish factors need to be seen, such as less - than - expected purchases by China and India in July or Malaysia's production in June - July challenging historical highs. Malaysia's inventory at the end of May is expected to reach over 2 million tons [3] - Indonesia's production in March increased by 16% month - on - month. If the production continues to recover significantly from April to May, it will help release the seasonal pressure. Recently, Indonesia's refining profit has increased, and export demand has recovered, but the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has not improved significantly, and the supply is gradually widening [3] - The export taxes of crude palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia are both reduced in June, so the importing regions' import sentiment will improve in June. India's palm oil purchases in May - June reached over 1.5 million tons, and the consumption expectation in the production increase season is guaranteed. China's palm oil purchases for the July shipment are relatively small. If the monthly average purchase cannot reach 350,000 tons, the origin will face inventory pressure again in the third quarter [3] - The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still comes from the production recovery situation. The bullish factors such as the digestion of Malaysia's previous production increase, the improvement of export in June, and the possible decline in production in June - July attract long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels [3] Soybean Oil - There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. 45Z and SRE mainly increase fluctuations, and RVO is needed to determine its value. It is considered that the probability of the final RVO figure being above 5.25 billion gallons is small, and the demand boost compared with 2024 will be less than 500,000 tons [5] - In terms of international oil and fat supply, attention should be paid to when the high soybean - palm oil price difference will reflect the export pressure of international soybean oil. The upward performance of US soybean oil may be restricted by the actual situation. If the operating rate remains at the low level in March, the inventory will become neutral by July [5] - The discount of Brazilian soybeans has widened compared with that of US soybeans, indicating less selling pressure from farmers, which will support the soybean sector. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, as well as the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5] 4. Overall View - For palm oil, the previous bearish factors of Malaysia's production increase have been gradually digested, exports from the origin are expected to improve in June, and the risk of production decline in June - July attracts long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels. Attention should be paid to the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference and the inventory pressure implied by the origin's export sentiment [6] - For soybean oil, there is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, and the impact of Sino - US relations on the domestic soybean market. Also, observe the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [6] 5. Market Data Futures Price and Volume - Palm oil main - continuous contract: opened at 8,100 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,250 yuan/ton, a low of 8,064 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,110 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The trading volume was 2,478,112 lots, a decrease of 604,662 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, an increase of 33,611 lots [8] - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: opened at 7,612 yuan/ton, reached a high of 7,748 yuan/ton, a low of 7,612 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,738 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The trading volume was 3,082,774 lots, a decrease of 400,894 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 42,275 lots [8] Spread and Basis - The vegetable - soybean oil 09 spread was 1,402 yuan/ton, down 18.01% from last week; the soybean - palm oil 09 spread was - 372 yuan/ton, up 11.85% [8] - The palm oil (South China) basis to the 09 contract was 380 yuan/ton; the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis declined [14] Inventory - related - Malaysia's palm oil production in May is expected to reach a historical high in the same period, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise. Indonesia's inventory in the second quarter is expected to rise rapidly [10][13] - The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,320,914 tons, an increase of 17.9% compared with the same period last month [13]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-06 宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压⼒，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，⽇盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性⾛弱，⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉已开始亏损，铁⽔产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但⾼度有限。 ⿊⾊：宏观情绪提振，价格延续⼩幅回暖态势 双焦尽管有利好消息刺激，但现货供给和库存仍有压力，钢材周度供 需数据偏弱，市场对淡季前景依然偏悲观，日盘呈现回落迹象。不过 盘后中美关系传来缓和信号，夜盘价格随之反弹。产业情况变化有 限，国内需求季节性走弱，目前电炉和部分高炉已开始亏损，铁水产 量预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可限制减量空间。综合来看，估值低 位叠加消息炒作带来反弹驱动，但高度有限。 1、铁元素方面，供应端海外增量释放不及预期，全年累计发运同比 下降，且新项目爬坡放缓，全年增量下调；需求端钢企盈利率持稳， 铁水微降，预计短期可 ...