北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）8月中国人民银行中期借贷便利（MLF）操作再度加量。根据人民银行官网，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月25日人民银 行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 期。 除了通过MLF投放中期流动性外，人民银行在8月8日、8月15日分别开展了7000亿元、5000亿元买断式逆回购操作。截至8月22日，当月买断式逆回购实现 北京商报记者进一步对比发现，在5月降准释放长期流动性约10000亿元之后，近三个月公开市场中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，且8月净投放规模显著扩 大。 另据Wind数据，在8月25日—29日的一周里，人民银行公开市场将有20770亿元逆回购到期、3000亿元MLF到期，以及5000亿元6个月期、4000亿元3个月期 买断式逆回购到期。按照对应数据计算，本月MLF操作实现净投放3000亿元。自2025年3月开始，人民银行连续第六个月加量续作MLF，整体符合市场预 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青从三方面分析了原因。王青指出，现阶段处于政府债券持续发行高峰期，同时监管层也在引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力 度。人民银行持续注入中期流动性 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has significantly increased mid-term liquidity management in August, achieving a net injection of 600 billion yuan, the highest since February 2025 [2][3] - The central bank's operations include 600 billion yuan MLF and additional net injections through reverse repos, indicating a strong coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [2][3] - The net liquidity injection in August is double that of July, reflecting a robust response to market conditions and a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2][3] Group 2 - The recent liquidity pressure was caused by tax payments, maturing financial instruments, and government bond issuances, leading to a temporary tightening of funds [4][5] - The central bank responded by increasing open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 13.652 billion yuan over five days, stabilizing short-term interest rates [5][6] - The upcoming maturity of over 20 billion yuan in reverse repos is expected to be managed effectively, maintaining liquidity within a reasonable range [6][7] Group 3 - The central bank's policy focus has shifted to "implementation and detail" of monetary policy, with potential delays in rate cuts and a more flexible approach to policy tools [6][7] - Analysts expect continued monitoring and adjustments to create a conducive monetary environment for economic recovery, despite the lack of specific mentions of certain tools [8] - The emphasis will be on improving the efficiency of fund usage to foster a positive cycle between the economy and finance [8]

Core Viewpoint - Powell's cautious stance at the Jackson Hole conference indicates that while a rate cut may occur next month, it does not signal the beginning of a sustained easing cycle, reflecting the Fed's careful approach to future monetary policy [2][3] Group 1: Powell's Statements and Market Reactions - Powell's remarks suggest that the market's optimistic expectations for rate cuts need to be tempered, highlighting the Fed's cautious attitude towards future monetary policy [2] - A comparison of Powell's speeches from last year and this year reveals a shift from a clear policy direction to a more ambiguous stance, indicating uncertainty in the Fed's future policy decisions [2] Group 2: Internal Fed Disagreements - There is a lack of consensus within the Fed regarding the potential rate cut in September, with some officials opposing the move, suggesting that any cut may be a one-time "insurance cut" rather than the start of a prolonged easing cycle [3] - The internal disagreements reflect differing views on the current economic situation, with some officials believing that immediate rate cuts are unnecessary while others advocate for modest cuts to mitigate potential economic downturns [3] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data and Uncertainty - Key economic data, including the core PCE price index and upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll figures, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding a potential rate cut in September [4] - The release of these economic indicators will provide the Fed with critical information to assess the strength of the economy and inflation pressures, which will directly impact the likelihood of a rate cut [4] - Powell's cautious remarks and the internal divisions within the Fed contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the September rate cut, necessitating close monitoring of forthcoming economic data and Fed officials' statements [4]

中国人民银行将开展6000亿元MLF操作 由于当月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着MLF净投放量达3000亿元，为连续第六个月加量续做。 "这显示出政策的连续性。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，货币政策延续支持性立场，持续向市场注入中期流动性，有利于稳定市场预期，保持市场 流动性充裕。 新华社 记者：任军、吴雨 中国人民银行22日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，8月25日中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元中期借贷 便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融移定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国 ...

新华社华盛顿8月22日电 综述｜鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新闻网采访时表示，美国通胀仍然过高，且过去一年呈 上升态势。她说，只要通胀仍然构成威胁，就会对降息继续持犹豫态度。 美国总统特朗普此前多次施压鲍威尔降 ...

| 候选人 | 当地时间 | | 观点言论 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沃勒 | 7/18 | | 美联储理事会成员专注于他们的工作，而非总统的言论。 | | | 7/30 | . | 7 月降息 25个基点合理，劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现，不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才下调利率。 | | (美联储现任理 | 8/1 | . | 我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎，在我看来，没有正确平衡经济前景的风险，可能导致政策落后 | | 章） | | | 于形势变化。 | | | 8/1 | . | 美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化才采取行动。 | | 哈塞特 | 7/14 | | 美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 | | (白宫国家经济 | 7/16 | ● | 美联储需要重新调整利率的路径,明确利率应当达到的水平。 | | 委员会主任 ) | 8/6 | . | 特朗普的首要任务是维护美联储的独立性。 | | | | . | （被问及美联储职位相关问题时）乐于探讨这一挑战。 | | | 7/17 | . | 如果由一个人领导美联储和财政部，协议会更容易达成。 | | 沃什 (美联储前理事) ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing financial turmoil characterized by a currency war and the shadow of recession, highlighting the contrasting signals from U.S. fiscal data and capital market reactions [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury data shows a significant increase in tariff revenue, with nearly $30 billion collected in July alone and an annual projection exceeding $150 billion, suggesting a strong economy [1]. - Despite the tariff revenue, the U.S. dollar index has dropped sharply from 109 to 98 within six months, indicating a nearly 10% decline, which is rare in the past fifty years [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Dynamics - Treasury Secretary Yellen's public calls for the Federal Reserve to take decisive action, including a 50 basis point rate cut, represent an unusual direct intervention in central bank policy [1][3]. - Yellen aims to shift the decision-making process from data-driven analysis to market sentiment, creating a perception of impending liquidity shortages [6]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Yellen's strategy includes pressuring the Fed while simultaneously advocating for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, aiming to disrupt global capital flows and close the "cheap borrowing" avenue from Japan [8][10]. - A potential rise in Japanese interest rates could lead to a massive repatriation of yen-denominated assets, impacting U.S. dollar assets and increasing selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries [10]. Group 4: Strategic Objectives - The overarching goal of Yellen's actions is to create a "weak dollar and overvalued yuan" scenario, which aligns with previous U.S. policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing by lowering financing costs [11]. - This financial strategy is designed to weaken China's export competitiveness by forcing the yuan to appreciate against a declining dollar, thereby impacting China's manufacturing sector [11][12]. Group 5: Geopolitical Context - The article emphasizes that the current monetary policy has transformed from a technical tool into a political weapon, with countries competing for relative advantages rather than absolute economic strength [14]. - The dynamics of capital flows are now seen as a more accurate reflection of a nation's economic health than traditional metrics like tariff revenues [14].

风暴前夜：美国经济在多重压力下步履蹒跚 在全球经济的舞台上，美国经济正如同走钢丝的杂技演员，在令人眩晕的高度上寻求平衡，而脚下则是深不 见底的衰退深渊。穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪，这位经济预测领域的资深人士，近来频繁发出警 示，他的声音如同穿透迷雾的灯塔，照亮了美国经济所面临的严峻现实。 赞迪通过LinkedIn发布了一项基于复杂机器学习模型的预测，如同掷地有声的判决：未来12个月内，美国经 济陷入衰退的概率高达49%。这个数字并非空穴来风，而是建立在对当前经济运行状况的深入剖析之上。早 在之前，赞迪就已敏锐地指出，美国经济正"处于衰退边缘"，如今，超过半数的行业已启动裁员，这一现象 与历史上的经济衰退前兆高度吻合，如同乌云汇聚，预示着暴风雨即将来临。 在赞迪的预测中，2025年末至2026年初将是美国经济最为脆弱的时刻。他认为，特朗普政府时期所推行的关 税和移民限制政策，其负面影响将在此时达到顶峰。这些政策如同悬在经济头顶的两把达摩克利斯之剑：关 税抬高了进口商品的价格，增加了企业的运营成本，最终转嫁到消费者身上；而移民限制则加剧了劳动力短 缺，使得企业难以找到合适的员工，从而影响了生产和扩张。两者 ...

8月22日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，由于8月份MLF到期为3000亿元，这意味着实现净投放达到3000亿元，符 合市场预期，也是连续第六个月加量续做。有关数据显示，考虑到截至8月22日，央行还开展了3000亿 元买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着8月中期流动性净投放总额达6000亿元，相当于上月的2倍，为2025年 2月以来最大规模净投放。 展望未来，王青表示，在上半年宏观经济稳中偏强，三季度外部波动及经济增长动能变化有待进一步观 察的背景下，短期内降准的概率较小，央行更可能通过MLF和买断式逆回购等政策工具保持市场流动 性充裕。预计未来MLF还会加量续做，并结合买断式逆回购操作，持续向市场注入中期流动性。 记者注意到，8月份央行两次开展买断式逆回购，为市场注入中期流动性：8日8日央行开展7000亿元3个 月期买断式逆回购后，随后8月15日再开展5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购。而8月分别有4000亿元3个月 期和5000亿元6个月期买断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented low interest rate environment is the strongest driving force behind the current stock market rally, and understanding the central bank's monetary policy report is crucial for investment in both equity and fixed income markets [1][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The emphasis on "implementing and refining" an appropriately loose monetary policy indicates a focus on structural policies rather than direct quantitative measures, suggesting that the central bank will prioritize the optimization of structural monetary tools rather than further interest rate cuts before the end of the year [13][14]. - The central bank's consideration of raising the price level reasonably implies that if CPI and PPI do not show a trend of rising, there is no need to worry about tightening monetary policy, reinforcing the principle that "if funds are not tight, bond bears will not come" [13]. - The focus on "lowering the cost of bank liabilities" aims to ensure banks' interest margins, indicating a preference for targeted measures like reducing the rates of reverse repos rather than broad-based interest rate cuts [14]. Group 2: Credit and Loan Trends - In the second quarter, large and medium-sized banks continued to increase their market share in loan increments, with large banks' increments being about 40% of the first quarter's, while small rural financial institutions lagged behind [20][21]. - The increase in fiscal deposits by nearly 24% in the second quarter, compared to 17% in the first quarter, is attributed to the large issuance of government and local bonds, which has led to increased deposit accumulation [24]. - Non-bank financial institutions saw a significant increase in deposits, with over 2.2 trillion yuan added in the second quarter, indicating a shift of deposits towards non-bank products [28]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Tools - The balance of structural monetary tools has reached 3.8 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in technology-related re-loans from 300 billion to 800 billion yuan, which is a core reason for the strength of the technology sector [38][40]. - The report highlights a shift in the distribution of new loans over the past decade, moving from real estate and urban investment to a more diversified structure, although the short-term demand for social financing remains insufficient [43][45]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The government has been the main department for financing leverage in the first half of the year, with significant increases in bond issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [54]. - The insurance sector has seen a reduction in premium growth to around 5%, down from over 10% in previous years, which may lead to a shift of funds towards equity and fixed income products [56]. - The central bank's mention of the cultural and chip sectors reflects their importance in the current market, particularly in the context of domestic control amid U.S.-China tensions [62].