1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].

2025 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年5月9日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -36.90 | 9.73 | 8.60% | 8.00%6 | 13.70% | -14.71 | 15,10% | H期现价差 | ਰੇ 59 | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -113,81 | 16.29 | 4.90% | IC期现价差 | 2.30% | 4.80% | IM期现价差 | -139.28 | 17.02 | 85.00% | 次月-当月 | -29.80 | 2.40 | 10.20% | 12.10% | | | 李月-崇月 | -90.40 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][13][21][38][45] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis values were - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4, - 161.4, - 166.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented from April 29 to May 8, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on May 8 was - 35.28 yuan/ton [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP changed. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 8 was - 160 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of different chemical products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was - 1030 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of chemical products like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - PVC are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 8 was 2169 yuan/ton [9] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of black metal products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal changed. For example, the basis of rebar on May 8 was 138.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of black metal products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was 88.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of black metal products such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 8 was 4.40 [14] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of domestic non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead changed. For example, the basis of copper on May 8 was 1220 yuan/ton [22] (2) London Market - **LME Premium/Discount, Shanghai - London Ratio, etc.**: On May 7, 2025, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 21.65 [28] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn changed. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 8 was - 214 [38] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 18 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 8 was 1.76 [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 changed. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 8 was 36.90 [46] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of stock index futures (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 30.2 [46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Forecasts suggest the US soybean - producing regions will be dry in the next two weeks, which is expected to facilitate sowing. Brazilian soybean premiums are weak, with far - month contracts relatively firm. In China, a large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in the second quarter. Domestic oil mills are expected to gradually resume crushing after the May Day holiday, leading to a stock - building cycle for soybean meal. As the pressure on spot supply increases, the basis is expected to continue to adjust. The futures market is expected to remain range - bound and weak in the short term, awaiting further release of spot pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on May 7th: in Dalian it was 530 with a 65 increase; in Tianjin 380 with a 115 increase; in日照 it was 200 with a 35 decrease; in张家港 280 with a 5 decrease; in Dongguan 380 with a 65 increase; in Zhanjiang 380 with a 5 decrease; in Fangcheng 360 with a 25 increase. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 114 with a 17 decrease [4] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 849 with a 70 increase, and the futures spread of the main contract was 355 with a 12 decrease. The N9 - 1 spread was - 41 with an 8 increase, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 1200 with a 220 increase [5] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1761 with a 10 decrease. The soybean CNF premium was 213.00 cents per bushel. The futures crushing profit was 137 yuan per ton. Regarding inventory, data on national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were presented, along with trends in national major oil mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with supply increasing, foreign spot prices rising, domestic inventories starting to increase, and tire operating rates rebounding [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are rebounding. The overall assessment is neutral [6]. - The spot price is 14700 with a basis of - 110, which is bearish [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, which is neutral [6]. - The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 7 [10]. 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory is seasonally increasing [16]. - The inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently [19]. 3.2.3 Import - The import volume has rebounded [22]. 3.2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding [25][28]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [31]. - Tire industry exports reached a new high in the same period [34]. 3.3 Multi - empty Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic economy is gradually recovering [8]. - Downstream consumption is at a high level [8]. - Raw material prices are relatively strong [8]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [8]. - Market inventories are increasing [8]. - The external environment is bearish [8]. 3.4 Basis - The basis narrowed on May 7 [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iran's low methanol shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low by the end of April. If there is an unexpected supply gap in May, low inventory levels will provide a safety margin for long - positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: Overall polyethylene inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Polypropylene inventory has increased in upstream and mid - stream. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The PVC basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2440 to 2445, with a daily decrease of -8 on May 6. The import profit remained at 218, and the main contract basis increased from 30 to 175 [1]. - **Viewpoint**: Due to low shipments from Iran, inventory is expected to reach a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory may accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of North China LL decreased from 7330 to 7230, with a daily decrease of -70 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7150 to 6987, and the basis increased from 190 to 260 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of East China PP decreased from 7180 to 7125, with a daily decrease of -30 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7097 to 6995, and the basis increased from 70 to 110 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of calcium carbide method in East China decreased from 4850 to 4740, with a daily decrease of -60 on May 6. The basis increased from -180 to -170 [8][9]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9].

环比明显下降，主要因假期到来部分企业逐步进入检修或降负运行阶段，进而拖拽企业产能利用率下行， 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 节后产能利用率有望逐步回升。ru2509合约短线建议在14500-15300区间交易，nr2506合约短线建议在124 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 50-13000区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

日报 | 2025-05-07 策略 谨慎做空套保 港口库存回升速率仍慢，基差偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润765元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2100元/吨（-55），内蒙北线基差481元/吨（-23），内蒙南线2150元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（-60），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-28）；河南2320元/吨（-65），河南基差301元/吨（-33）；河北2345元/吨（-115），河北基差386元 /吨（-83）。隆众内地工厂库存283350吨（-26250），西北工厂库存171000吨（-7600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249630 吨（-53045），西北工厂待发订单112800吨（-47000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2420元/吨（-23），太仓基差201元/吨（+9），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差47元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2525元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（-45），广东基差151元/吨（-13）。隆众港口总库存537400吨 （+74200），江苏港口库存248 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for plastics is cautiously bearish, and there is no recommendation for inter - period strategies [3] Core View - Affected by the decline in upstream crude oil, polyolefins are operating weakly. The increase in propane import tariffs will pressure the cost of PDH - made PP, and some PDH devices have temporarily shut down. New polyolefin devices are continuously being put into production, and the inventory of existing devices under maintenance is at a high level, alleviating supply pressure. The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak, and the overall inventory is being depleted [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6987元/吨（-96），PP主力合约收盘价为6995元/吨（-46），LL华北现货为7320元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-80），LL华北基差为333元/吨（+86），LL华东基差为343元/吨（+46），PP华东基差为205元/吨（-34） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）；PE油制生产利润为659.2元/吨（+88.4），PP油制生产利润为319.2元/吨（+88.4），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 677.0元/吨（-10.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not mentioned in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 152.3元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为 - 340.1元/吨（-10.0），PP出口利润为20.2美元/吨（+1.2） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.7%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE生产企业库存总量季节性偏低，PP库存压力尚可，整体库存维持去化 [2]