Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, starting from October 1, 2025 [1] - The U.S.-China trade tensions are escalating, with the U.S. expanding export controls and adding 16 Chinese tech companies to the entity list [1] - In response, China is tightening export controls on rare earths and other materials, and has announced special port fees for U.S. vessels [1] - Former President Trump announced plans to impose significant tariffs on China starting November 1, 2025 [1] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The consumer expectations index for October was recorded at 51.2, falling short of the expected 51.4 and previous 51.7 [1] - One-year inflation expectations for October were slightly lower at 4.6, compared to the expected 4.7 and previous 4.7 [1] - Five-year inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7, matching both the expected and previous values [1] Market Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94% over the week from October 6 to October 10 [2] - The Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27% during the same period [2] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of its eleven sectors showing gains, led by utilities at 1.42% and energy down by 3.98% [2][3] Investment Direction - The recent tariff threats from Trump have triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in U.S. stocks and increases in gold prices [4] - The impact of these tariffs on U.S.-China trade and the economy is considered less severe than in April, with market reactions being more desensitized [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. stock growth, tracking the S&P 500 Index which covers over 500 representative companies [4] - The BoShi Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) focuses on the technology sector, which constitutes 57.87% of the index, featuring high-quality tech companies [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

路透社指出，投资者正将黄金作为"政策不确定性与利率见顶后的主要对冲工具"。 美国银行、法国兴 业银行及渣打银行均上调了金价中长期预期，认为黄金有望在2026年前后冲击5000美元/盎司。 【机构观点】 【宏观消息】 来自东西方经济体的黄金需求罕见同步，正推动贵金属进入潜在重估阶段。美国当前36万亿美元国债 中，黄金储备价值仅占约2%，而20世纪70年代这一比例为17%，40年代接近40%。"若重新回到历史水 平，金价可能被动对应至每盎司2.5万至5.5万美元。"这并非具体目标价，而是展示黄金"被低估的结构 性程度"。 【黄金期货行情表现】 10月14日，沪金主力暂报938.98元/克，涨幅达2.70%，今日沪金主力开盘价929.50元/克，截至目前最高 958.10元/克，最低929.14元/克。 随着对贸易战再度升温的担忧，黄金再度从中收益。对年内两次降息的押注也愈发强烈。节日期间黄金 已经展现其强势，美联储谨慎表态、美元走强、远好于预期的9月非农等传统利空因素未对黄金形成打 压，美国政府"停摆"持续发酵。体现在美国财政赤字、债务状况持续恶化，全球对抗加剧，对当前金融 体系不信任度上升背景下，黄金成为终极安 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The main logic is that although the tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut. There is still a lack of effective domestic demand, and the expectation of policy easing provides strong support. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is "oscillate", the medium - term is "oscillate", the intraday is "oscillate weakly", and the overall view is "oscillate". The core logic is that long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillate weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillate". Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures. However, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, and the implied interest rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of a loose policy provides strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Spot gold has risen nearly 0.9%, reaching a historical high of $4,179.92 per ounce, driven by central banks accumulating gold as official reserves [1] - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, indicating a lack of alternative fiat currency substitutes [1] - Despite achieving double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, investor participation through ETFs remains low, but recent strong performance in 2025 has attracted investors back to the market [1][2] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and expectations for two more cuts this year, combined with economic indicators like ADP employment data and manufacturing PMI, have increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a temporary pullback in gold prices, but the overall market sentiment remains strong, suggesting potential for continued upward movement [2] Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Activity - As of October 14, 2025, the gold stock ETF has seen a 3.53% decline, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, while the ETF has experienced a 3.95% increase over the past week [4] - The gold stock ETF has recorded significant trading activity, with a turnover of 29.79% and a total transaction volume of 35.73 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [4] - The gold stock ETF has achieved a 49.25% increase in net value over the past six months, ranking among the top funds in its category [5] Group 4: Risk and Return Metrics - The gold stock ETF has a maximum drawdown of 8.52% over the past six months, with a recovery period of 28 days, the fastest among comparable funds [6] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, with a focus on tracking the performance of the gold industry index [7] - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index account for 68.2% of the index, highlighting concentration in major players [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector will see significant earnings growth in Q3 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth [3][7]. - The performance growth is primarily driven by rising metal prices and increased production and sales volumes [3]. - The report highlights the impact of recent economic events, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and government shutdown, on gold prices, suggesting a long-term upward trend for gold due to low domestic reserves in China [5]. - Industrial metals like copper are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints from incidents like the mudslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and export demand in the steel sector, recommending stable dividend-paying stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast - Companies with over 50% year-on-year growth include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold [3]. - Companies with 20-50% growth include Huayou Cobalt and Baosteel [3]. - Companies with 0-20% growth include Shengda Resources and Western Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are expected to rise due to interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [5]. - Silver is also highlighted as a potential investment due to a favorable gold-silver ratio [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to increase due to supply disruptions, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended [5]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as domestic production capacity becomes constrained [5]. Steel Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and potential for valuation recovery, such as Baosteel and Hesteel [5]. Minor Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Huayou Cobalt recommended [5]. - Lithium supply is currently more relaxed, with attention on changes in Yichun's mica mines [5]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends investing in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

官 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色金属行业 2025 年三季度业绩前瞻 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 三季度业绩前瞻: 我们对重点公司 2025 三季度业绩进行预测，2025 年前三季度业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有紫金 O 矿业、洛阳铝业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、株冶集团、湖南黄金、金诚信、 金力永磁，同比增速在 20-50%区间的有华友钻业、宝钢股份、南钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材, 同比增速在 0-20%区间的有盛达资源、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、中信特钢, 业绩增长主要受益于相关金属价格同比上涨、产销量同比增长；2025Q3 业绩环比增速在 50%以 上的有盛达资源、铜陵有色、金力永磁，在 20-50%区间的有山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金，在 0-20%区间的有紫金矿业、山金国际、株冶集团、金诚信、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天 山铝业、新疆众和、华友钻业、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [29] - European stocks - Equal - weight [30] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [31] - Hong Kong stocks - Equal - weight [32] - Japanese stocks - Overweight [35] - Indian stocks - Underweight [34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, global financial markets were influenced by central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical factors. The Fed's rate cut, economic data in the US and China, and various market - specific events all had an impact on different asset classes [23][9][19] - Stock markets generally rose in September, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the way. Bond markets had mixed performances, and currency and commodity markets also showed distinct trends [28][48][58] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance in September 3.1.1 Stock Markets - Most major global stock indices rose in September. The Hang Seng Tech Index led with a 13.95% monthly increase, and A - share market style was highly differentiated [27][28] 3.1.2 Bond Markets - Most major bond indices had positive returns in September. For example, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index gained 0.85% in September [48] 3.1.3 Commodity Markets - Gold prices rose nearly 12% in September, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and copper prices increased by 5.08% [62] 3.1.4 Currency Markets - The US dollar index showed a low - level oscillating pattern, the yen was slightly weak, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was stable [58] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Review - ADP private employment decreased by 32,000 in September, against an expected increase of 51,000. The market increased bets on Fed rate cuts [9] - In August, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, driven by car and housing prices [10] - Retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month in August, and real retail sales increased 2.1% year - on - year [14] - The September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, still in the expansion range but showing signs of softening demand [16] 3.2.2 Chinese Macroeconomic Review - In August, social consumption was stable, exports and imports increased, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, and financial data was supported by various factors [19] - CPI turned negative again, PPI improved slightly but remained low, and PMI showed mixed signals [21] 3.2.3 Global Central Bank Policies in September - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, and the market expected two more cuts this year [23] - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points on September 17 [23] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark rate at 0.5% on September 19 and announced an ETF and J - REIT减持 plan [23] 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Stock Markets - US stocks: The Fed's rate cut, economic resilience, and AI concept support the overweight rating, despite concerns about AI over - valuation [29] - European stocks: Mixed economic data, political instability, and the Fed's rate cut lead to an equal - weight rating [30] - Chinese A - shares: A funds - driven bull market, high - valuation in tech sectors, and potential policy risks result in an equal - weight rating [31] - Hong Kong stocks: AI and tech sectors are the mainstay, but narrow market breadth and weak fundamentals pose risks, with southbound funds being important [32] - Japanese stocks: The impact of the ETF减持 plan is limited, economic fundamentals are improving, and the market has digested the expected rate hike [35] - Indian stocks: Deteriorating US - India relations, high valuation, and foreign capital outflows lead to an underweight rating [34] 3.3.2 Bond Markets - US bonds: Short - term yields may decline further in October due to weak employment data [54] - Japanese bonds: The 10 - year yield may rise if the Bank of Japan hikes rates in October [54] - Chinese bonds: A rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut are expected in Q4, and bond yields may peak and fall [54] 3.3.3 Commodity Markets - Gold: After a sharp rise in September, it may enter a consolidation period, but long - term allocation logic remains [62] - Oil: Supply is expected to exceed demand in Q4, and the price may decline [62] - Copper: Supply disruptions and increased long - term demand may drive prices higher [62] 3.3.4 Currency Markets - US dollar: Expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [58] - Yen: May strengthen if the Bank of Japan hikes rates in October [58] - RMB: Stable against the US dollar and weak against other currencies to support exports [58] 3.4 Selected Funds This Month - The report selects funds based on asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [64][65]

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to heightened US-China trade tensions [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The one-year inflation expectation for October is at 4.6, slightly lower than the expected 4.7 and the previous 4.7, while the five-year inflation expectation remains stable at 3.7 [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of October 6-10, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of the eleven sectors showing gains [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Direction - The threat of tariffs from Trump has triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in US stocks and a rise in gold prices [3] - The impact of the tariffs on US-China trade and economy is considered less significant compared to April, with market reactions being more desensitized [3] - There are ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, indicating a divergence of opinions [3]

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher. The resurgence of the tariff war has increased market risk aversion, which is favorable for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, China's economic data shows strong resilience, reducing the need for an across - the - board interest rate cut. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut between market interest rates and policy rates is weak, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. The expectation of policy easing still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On October 14, the People's Bank of China conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and an operating interest rate of 1.40%. There were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. Additionally, 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured [6]