1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings include "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., based on the "Investment Rating Standard Explanation" [264]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU is considering increasing sanctions on Russia, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. International crude oil futures have risen for three consecutive days. The EU's consideration of sanctioning oil companies importing Russian crude has raised concerns about supply - side disruptions. OPEC+ representatives will discuss production capacity this week, which may affect future production increases. Macro - level positive sentiment has provided some support for oil prices [2]. - The chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. China's weak retail sales data has led to expectations of consumption - stimulating policies. Chemical products have generally risen following the rebound of crude oil and coal, but the rebound is hesitant, and the basis of many varieties has weakened. During the refinery maintenance season, there are not many unexpected over - maintenance situations, and the reduction in chemical supply is insufficient to support a large - scale rebound [3]. - Overall, the short - term boost from macro - sentiment on chemical product prices is temporary, and the overall situation remains one of oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The market is affected by factors such as API data on US inventories, the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and OPEC+ production policies. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors as the main risk [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500. The asphalt futures price rebounds following crude oil. However, the high - level valuation of asphalt has contradictions in inventory and production scheduling, and the price is expected to oscillate [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, fuel oil weakly rebounds following crude oil. The three main drivers of high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [4][11]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near - term and far - term markets, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The price is affected by factors such as regional market prices, device maintenance, and port inventories [4][22]. - **Urea**: With the overall rebound of the chemical industry, urea's growth is under pressure and is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [4][23]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The expectation of a loose supply - demand situation in the long - term suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [4][17]. - **PX**: The fundamental outlook is poor, and the processing fee is further compressed. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support level around 6600 [4][12]. - **PTA**: Polyester demand is average, and the spot market has sufficient supply, putting pressure on the basis. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support around 4600 [4][12]. - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with costs, and demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [4][19]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is limited driving force, and it passively follows the market. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following raw materials [4][20]. - **PP**: Slight increase in maintenance and support from the coal end lead to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as device maintenance, cost support, and supply - demand relationships [4][25]. - **Propylene**: PDH maintenance still provides support, and it oscillates in the short term [4]. - **Plastic**: Slight increase in maintenance leads to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as oil prices, technical support, downstream demand, and supply - side pressure [4][24]. - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by benzene - ethylene devices and macro - disturbances, pure benzene rises intraday. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for new drivers [4][14]. - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Affected by macro and device disturbances, benzene - ethylene rebounds. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to inventory pressure [4][15]. - **PVC**: With a weak current situation and strong expectations, PVC oscillates. The price is affected by macro - policies, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [4][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The price is affected by factors such as downstream demand, device maintenance, and cost [4][28]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in these spreads [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, along with their changes [31]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The report shows the inter - variety spread data for combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., and their changes [33].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待美联储决议，美零售销售继续回升，金价继续走高；美国三大 股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收 益率跌0.58个基点报4.028%；美元指数跌0.73%报96.65，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1041；COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%报3727.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货842.08，现货838，基差-4.08，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单53226千克，增加2799千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to fluctuations in gold and silver prices [1][2][3] - Spot gold first broke through $3700 per ounce but later experienced a short-term drop, ultimately closing up 0.29% at $3689.46 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver closed down 0.38% at $42.50 per ounce, reflecting the overall market sentiment influenced by monetary policy expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell, while economic data showed that U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, indicating strong consumer resilience [3] - The ongoing trade policy uncertainties, including agreements between the EU and Indonesia, proposed tariffs on auto parts by the U.S., and intensified trade negotiations between the U.S. and India, are supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [3] - Market volatility is expected to increase around the Federal Reserve's policy statement, especially if the rate cut is accompanied by hawkish guidance or cautious signals regarding future policy [3] Group 3 - Overall, economic data has not changed the expectations for interest rate cuts, and ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainties suggest that gold and silver prices will likely maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short to medium term [4] - Technically, gold is expected to find support at $3600, with potential to challenge the $3800 level, while silver could target $45 if it stabilizes around the $43 mark [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a closing price of $3686.23 per ounce on September 16, following a high of $3703.09 and a low of $3674.73 [1] - The U.S. retail sales for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5%, indicating a steady consumer spending trend despite economic uncertainties [2] - High-income households have shown resilience in spending, contributing disproportionately to overall consumption, supported by a bull market and rising home prices [2] Group 2 - The U.S. housing market outlook is optimistic due to declining mortgage rates and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, despite ongoing construction cost pressures [3] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to 6.35%, the lowest since mid-October of the previous year, which is expected to boost housing demand [3] - Industrial production in the U.S. showed minimal growth in August, with manufacturing increasing by only 0.2%, indicating challenges in the manufacturing sector due to trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 3 - International gold maintained a volatile trading pattern, with short-term price movements indicating a potential upward trend, as the market stabilized above $3682 [4] - The short-term indicators for gold prices suggest a bullish sentiment, with significant support levels identified for potential price rebounds [4] - The overall daily moving averages for gold prices are showing a structured upward divergence, reinforcing the bullish trend [4]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the non-ferrous metal industry is "Outperform the Market" [6][7]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with a net profit increase of 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by rising commodity prices [1][29]. - The industrial metal segment experienced a revenue growth of 12.08% year-on-year, with net profits increasing by 38% in the same period [2]. - Precious metals benefited from interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, leading to a significant rise in gold prices [3][15]. - Energy metals have started to recover, with a slight revenue increase and a return to profitability [4]. - The small metals sector faced challenges, with a notable decline in revenue but some improvement in profitability in the second quarter [4]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - In the first half of 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector achieved a total revenue of 1,819.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, and a net profit of 95.3 billion yuan, up 38.28% [1][29]. - The sector's performance was bolstered by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, while energy metals and steel saw price declines [1][14]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metal sector reported a total revenue of 1,358.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.08%, and a net profit of 69.74 billion yuan, up 38% [2][34]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 727.99 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.97% year-on-year increase and a 15.4% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. Precious Metals - The precious metal sector generated a revenue of 188.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27% and a net profit of 9.68 billion yuan, up 65.6% [3][34]. - The second quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 104.42 billion yuan, a 31.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.79 billion yuan, up 76.3% [3]. Energy Metals - The energy metal sector achieved a revenue of 81.24 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1%, and a net profit of 5.31 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][34]. - The second quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 43.88 billion yuan, a 5.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan, up 51.9% [4]. Small Metals - The small metal sector reported a revenue of 137.7 billion yuan, down 37.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.64 billion yuan, down 26.1% [4][34]. - In the second quarter, the revenue was 73.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.5% year-on-year, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.4% [4]. Steel - The steel sector lagged behind, with a revenue increase of only 3.09% year-on-year, indicating a weaker performance compared to non-ferrous metals [1][16].

Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to decline, with Lingbao Gold down 5.51% at HKD 15.79, China Silver Group down 4.9% at HKD 0.485, Chifeng Jilong Gold down 3.96% at HKD 29.62, and Zijin Mining down 2.79% at HKD 28.56 [1] - Comex gold futures have surpassed USD 3700, reaching a new historical high, with JPMorgan forecasting spot gold prices to exceed USD 4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [1] - JPMorgan indicates that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, investor capital rotation could push gold prices to USD 5000 within two quarters [1] Group 2 - The biggest risk to gold prices, according to JPMorgan, is a significant reduction in central bank gold purchases, which could challenge the sustainability of the price increase [1] - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the US August CPI met expectations, and a weakening job market is leading to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [1] - As the September monetary policy meeting approaches, the market is awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve on future interest rate cuts, while ongoing US-China negotiations may increase metal price volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a surge in gold prices, which reached historical highs. However, gold mining stocks are experiencing a downturn, indicating a potential adjustment phase following the anticipated rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price and Mining Stocks - Gold prices have recently surged, with London gold briefly surpassing $3,700 per ounce, yet leading gold mining stocks like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold have seen declines, suggesting that the market has already priced in much of the expected rise in gold prices [1][2]. - The performance of gold mining stocks is closely linked to gold prices, but their price movements do not always align. Recent declines in mining stocks may reflect profit-taking by investors after significant gains [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may face short-term pressure following the Fed's rate cut, the long-term outlook remains positive due to factors such as global economic conditions and inflationary pressures [2][4]. Group 2: Company Financing Activities - Several gold mining companies have taken advantage of the favorable market conditions to raise capital through financing activities in Hong Kong, including Shandong Gold's nearly HKD 3.9 billion placement and Zijin Mining's plans for a spin-off listing [3]. - Other companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zhaojin Mining have also successfully completed significant financing rounds, indicating a proactive approach to capitalizing on the current market environment [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment advisors recommend that conservative investors consider gold ETFs as a more stable investment compared to individual gold mining stocks, which are subject to company-specific risks [4]. - Gold ETFs provide a direct correlation to gold prices, while mining stock ETFs offer diversification but still carry inherent industry risks [4]. - The anticipated rate cut by the Fed is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term, making gold a potentially attractive investment option [4][5].

Group 1 - Gold stocks continue to decline, with Lingbao Gold down 5.51% at HKD 15.79, China Silver Group down 4.9% at HKD 0.485, Chifeng Jilong Gold down 3.96% at HKD 29.62, and Zijin Mining down 2.79% at HKD 28.56 [1] - Comex gold futures have surpassed USD 3700, reaching a new historical high, with JPMorgan forecasting spot gold prices to exceed USD 4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [1] - JPMorgan indicates that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, investor capital rotation could push gold prices to USD 5000 within two quarters [1] Group 2 - The biggest risk to gold prices is a significant reduction in central bank gold purchases, which could challenge the sustainability of the price increase if prices rise too high [1] - Cathay Securities notes that the US August CPI met expectations, and a weakening job market is leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [1] - As the September monetary policy meeting approaches, the market is awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve on future interest rate cuts, while ongoing US-China negotiations may amplify metal price volatility [1]

Group 1 - The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasing, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which supports gold prices [2] - Gold prices have reached a historical high of 3702, with fluctuations around 3674 and 3686, indicating strong market interest [2] - The market is advised to focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and potential support levels around 3675/80 [2] Group 2 - The API reported a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, which, combined with interest rate cut expectations, has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - Crude oil prices rebounded from a low of 62.8 to a high of 64.7, breaking through a significant resistance level, although the sustainability of this trend is uncertain [4] - The market is advised to look for high and low trading opportunities around the 65 resistance level [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With the upcoming interest rate meeting, the market is shifting towards trading the possibility of unexpectedly loose monetary policy this year. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the retracement of gains after the interest rate cut catalyst materializes [8][9] Market Analysis - The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and President Trump signed the appointment document. The market may question the independence of the Federal Reserve. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed Governor Cook could continue to serve, and the Trump administration will appeal the court's decision. The US Department of Commerce announced that it has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope and will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [1] Futures Market Gold - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.48 yuan/gram and closed at 842.08 yuan/gram, a change of 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 844.18 yuan/gram and closed at 842.10 yuan/gram, a 0.29% decline from the afternoon close [2] Silver - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,020.00 yuan/kg and closed at 10,108.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 387,860 lots, and the open interest was 195,504 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10,149 yuan/kg and closed at 10,070 yuan/kg, a 0.63% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 16, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.030%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.529%, down 0.44 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes Gold - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 106 lots, and the short positions also changed by 106 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 313,989 lots, a change of 24.13% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 978,146 lots, a change of 18.81% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons, an increase of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,152.9 tons, an increase of 83.30 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking Spot-Futures Spread - On September 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -20.12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,025.41 yuan/kg [6] Gold-Silver Ratio - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 83.31, a change of 0.35% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.21, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 43,660 kg, a change of 29.26% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,792 kg, a change of 33.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,562 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 4,110 kg [7]