2025年06月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易乐观情绪带动美豆收涨，连粕反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳中有涨，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：市场情绪好转带动反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：淘汰加速 | 10 | | 生猪：降重启动，反套格局确立 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 6 日 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 豆油：豆系驱动不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.05% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.39% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/桶 | 63.37 | 62.85 | 0.83% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/桶 | 65.34 | 64.86 | 0.74% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 557.13 | 562.63 | -0.98% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 698.00 | 699.50 | -0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 820.00 | 825.33 | -0.65% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/5 | 元/吨 | 4644.00 | 4670.0 ...

2025年06月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 6 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 -0. 50% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 701.0 | -3.5 | | | | | | | 昨日持仓( ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（6月6日） 4. 布宜诺斯艾利斯交易所在一份周报中表示："尽管收割延迟，但我们仍然看到单产高于最初预期，特 别是在南部农业区和布宜诺斯艾利斯省西部。"该交易所称，目前本年度大豆已收割完成约88.7%。该 交易所预计阿根廷2024/25年度将收获约5000万吨大豆和4900万吨玉米。 5. USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周 为17%，去年同期为1%。约21%的美国玉米种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为23%，去年同期为 2%。 6. 据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新数据，截至5月30日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单51536 手，环比增加1657手；未点价买入订单96452手，环比增加4064手。 7. 据隆众资讯，截止到2025年6月5日，国内纯碱厂家总库存162.70万吨，较上周四增加0.27万吨，涨幅 0.17%。其中轻质纯碱79万吨，环比减少2.83万吨，重质纯碱83.7万吨，环比增加3.10万吨。 8. 智利海关公布的数据显示，智利5月铜出口量为181234吨，当月对中国出口铜32721吨。智 ...

报告说明 关 迪 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/30 | | 2025/5/26 | 至 | 2025/5/30 | | | 棕榈油 | 8060.00 | 棕榈油 | | | 0.67% | | | 生猪 | 13605.00 | 生猪 | | | 0.67% | | | 豆粕 | 2968.00 | 豆粕 | | | 0.54% | | | 玉米 | 2336.00 | 玉米 | | | 0.39% | | | 铜 | 77600.00 | 铜 | | -0.24% | | | | PTA | 4700.00 | PTA | | -0.34% | | | | 铝 | 20070.00 | 铝 | | -0.42% | | | | 白银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The European futures market presents a pattern of "system - led, complementary functions, and regional division of labor". With Western Europe and the UK as dual cores and Northern Europe as a characteristic sector, mainstream financial futures contracts like EURO - Bund futures and STOXX index futures have positions in the hundreds of billions, and commodity futures contracts such as Brent crude oil and LME copper also have positions exceeding tens of billions [1][2]. - In 2024, the European futures market showed significant differentiation in activity. The UK market had strong growth, Western Europe was the largest trading volume area, and Northern Europe had a small - scale but specialized market [36]. - The European futures market has a multi - core and multi - level capital distribution, with leading varieties dominating and many characteristic contracts meeting various segmented needs [47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 European Futures Market Development History - **Origin**: It originated in the late Middle Ages, and the Netherlands created the first large - scale derivatives market in history through tulip bulb futures trading in the 17th century [8]. - **UK**: In 1877, the London Metal Exchange Company was established, marking the birth of modern metal futures trading. Financial futures emerged in 1982 with the establishment of LIFFE. After multiple mergers and acquisitions, LIFFE is now under ICE Futures Europe. Regulatory framework changes, such as the "Big Bang" in 1986 and the implementation of the Financial Services and Markets Act in 2000, have also influenced the market. Brexit in 2018 led to regulatory adjustments [9][10]. - **Western Europe**: The modern futures market emerged after World War II. Eurex, Euronext, and EEX have played important roles. Eurex became the European interest - rate derivatives pricing center, Euronext integrated European financial derivatives business, and EEX became a leading platform for energy and environmental products [12][13]. - **Northern Europe**: Its trading tradition dates back to the Hanseatic League in the Middle Ages. After World War II, through economic cooperation, the derivatives market developed. In 1996, the Nordic Power Exchange was established, launching the world's first day - ahead power futures contract [14][16]. 3.2 European Futures Products - **UK**: ICE Futures Europe and LME are the cores, covering financial derivatives and commodities. Products include FTSE 100 index futures, gilt futures, Brent crude oil futures, and LME copper and aluminum futures [20][21]. - **Western Europe**: Eurex, Euronext, and EEX provide a wide range of products. There are STOXX 600 and DAX index futures, EURO - Bund and other interest - rate futures, wheat and power futures, and euro foreign - exchange futures [20][27]. - **Northern Europe**: OMX provides derivatives mainly for local and international investors. Key products are OMXS30 index futures and Nordic power futures [33][34]. 3.3 European Futures Market Volume and Price Overview - **Trading Volume in 2024**: The UK market had a turnover of about 1.78 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of 25.5%. Western Europe had a turnover close to 2.3 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of nearly 8%. Northern Europe had a turnover of 63.81 million lots with a slight decline [36]. - **Market Structure**: Western Europe has the most diverse and active market, with stock index futures leading in trading volume. The UK market is energy and interest - rate oriented, and the Northern European market has a small scale but a concentrated trading structure, focusing on local financial markets and specialized fields [40][41]. - **Position Amount at the End of 2024**: Many futures varieties have large position amounts, with some reaching hundreds of billions or even trillions of euros or dollars. For example, EURO - Bund futures had a position of over 1.5 trillion euros, and LME copper futures had a position of 58.6 billion dollars [46].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/05 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to support 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin in implementing urba ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5196, down 0.65%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, and the cost support is weakened by the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The demand expectation for steel is generally weak. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 5, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5482, up 0.48%. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' production cut has led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The raw material cost side has seen some changes, and the market sentiment has improved. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,482.00元/吨，环比下降20.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,196.00元/吨，环比下降62.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为662,411.00手，环比增加6350.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为467,642.00手，环比增加24317.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 27,364.00手，环比增加264.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 12,793.00手，环比增加6345.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为32.00元/吨，环比下降8.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为8.00元/吨，环比下降4.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为102,183.00张，环比下降1064.00张；SF仓单为15,836.00张，环比下降375.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,260.00元/吨，环比下降40.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5500.00元/吨，环比无变化；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,230.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500.00元/吨，环比无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,170.00元/吨，环比下降80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5515.00元/吨，环比下降101.68元；SF主力合约基差为 - 26.00元/吨，环比下降18.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加20.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为31.00元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为970.00元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为640.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为407.00万吨，环比下降13.50万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为34.77%，环比增加0.59%；锰硅供应为169,925.00吨，环比增加4725.00吨 [2]. - 硅铁企业开工率为30.44%，环比增加0.02%；硅铁供应为84,900.00吨，环比下降4000.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为201,100.00吨，环比下降6000.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为7.51万吨，环比增加0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.15天，环比下降0.29天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.20天，环比下降0.24天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为126886.00吨，环比增加296.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20574.50吨，环比下降125.50吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.89%，环比增加0.22%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.67%，环比下降0.63% [2]. - 粗钢产量为8601.90万吨，环比下降682.24万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 山东省工业和信息化厅对石横特钢集团有限公司从菏泽富海能源有限公司转入7万吨焦化合规产能指标进行公示 [2]. - 2025年全国计划新开工改造城镇老旧小区2.5万个，1 - 4月份新开工改造5679个 [2]. - 5月深圳全市二手房录得5727套，环比下降13.2%，同比增长17.6% [2]. - 印尼考虑购买中国歼 - 10战斗机和美国F - 15EX战斗机 [2]. - 欧洲央行正式批准保加利亚使用欧元的申请，使其成为欧元区第21个成员国 [2]. - 商务部等五部门计划开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动 [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - The short - term fundamentals change little. The nickel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production cut rhythm [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still have pressure. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be weak and operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [5]. Tin - The short - term supply - side tightness boosts the tin price. Consider shorting on rallies above 260,000, and pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm [7]. Alumina - If the mine - end situation does not further ferment, the alumina price will be under pressure, with the lower reference cash cost of 2,700. Attention should be paid to domestic enterprise capacity changes and imported supply [8]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate, with the operating range of 19,000 - 21,000. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [8]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,500. Pay attention to zinc ore production growth and downstream demand changes [10]. Copper - The short - term copper price will fluctuate. The main focus is on the pressure level of 78,000 - 79,000. The downward space depends on real demand weakness, and the upward space depends on tariff expectation reversal or US economic risk release [13]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.47% to 123,425 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 0.42% to 124,575 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel rose 0.51% to 122,425 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.08% to 60,250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.09% to 58,650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 2.04% to 255,500 yuan/ton; Yangtze 1 tin rose 2.03% to 256,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.80% to 20,280 yuan/ton; Yangtze aluminum A00 rose 0.80% to 20,270 yuan/ton [8]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.53% to 22,910 yuan/ton; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) rose 0.66% to 22,810 yuan/ton [10]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.05% to 78,485 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.15% to 78,295 yuan/ton [13]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - Integrated MHP production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton; integrated high - matte production cost of electrolytic nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,915 yuan/ton; battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.33% to 60,700 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 220 yuan/ton from - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 25 yuan/ton from - 42 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 40 yuan/ton from 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 400 yuan/ton from - 240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 90 yuan/ton from 130 yuan/ton [8]. - **Zinc**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 335 yuan/ton from 390 yuan/ton [10]. - **Copper**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 150 yuan/ton from 290 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons; refined nickel imports increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May's lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons; demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons [5]. - **Tin**: April's tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons; SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons [7]. - **Aluminum**: May's alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [8]. - **Zinc**: May's refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons; April's refined zinc imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons [10]. - **Copper**: May's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons; April's electrolytic copper imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons [13].

Variety Views - On June 4, the three major A-share indexes closed up collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to 3376.20 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87% to 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.11% to 2024.93 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong on June 4, closing at 3868.741, a环比 increase of 16.73 [1] - On June 4, the weighted index of coke rebounded after an oversold, closing at 1368.0 yuan, a环比 increase of 73.2. The weighted index of coking coal stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 770.4 yuan, a环比 increase of 51.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke - The second round of price cuts in the spot market has been implemented. US President Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. The abundant supply of raw materials has weakened cost support, and iron water production has declined from its peak. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 39 yuan/ton [3] Coking Coal - The fundamentals show an abundant supply, with stable mine production. The inventory of clean coal has continued to increase this period [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline, US sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as a large short - term decline and the stabilization of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract stabilized and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of the week ending May 27, hedge funds and large speculators held 19,503 net long positions in raw sugar, a decrease of 8,928 from the previous week, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. Long positions increased by 7,024 to 209,622, and short positions increased by 15,952 to 190,119 [3] Rubber - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline and short - covering, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival of overseas rubber supplies has continued to decrease recently, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.80% [4] Palm Oil - On June 4, palm oil rebounded weakly and returned to the range - bound pattern. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price on that day was 8210, the lowest price was 8102, and the closing price was 8130, a 0.81% increase from the previous trading day. A commodity research institution said that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Although the production in May remained resilient, there are signs that production has slowed down after a significant 21.5% month - on - month increase in April. It is expected that production will resume strong growth in the second half of 2025. Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [4][6] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on June 4, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Global soybean production is still promising, and the weather conditions in the US Midwest are generally good, boosting the crop yield outlook and restricting the increase in soybean prices. As of June 1, the sowing rate of soybeans in 2025 was 84%, higher than the five - year average of 80%. The National Association of Grain Exporters in Brazil estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. In the domestic market, on June 4, soybean meal futures oscillated in a narrow range. The main contract M2509 closed at 2938 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Supported by the high - opening and high - pressing volume of oil mills, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal has accelerated slightly. As of the end of May, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased to 306,000 tons, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival of soybeans [5] Live Pigs - On June 4, the futures price of live pigs oscillated weakly. The main contract 2509 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decrease. Currently, overall consumer demand is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperatures and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, the sales of fresh pork are poor. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter of the breeding end has decreased slightly. The slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises is relatively small, and the willingness of small - scale pig farms to sell at low prices is insufficient, slightly reducing the market supply pressure. However, based on the previous calculation of sow inventory, the supply of standard pigs in June may increase month - on - month, and the market is generally in a pattern of abundant supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - After the release of the US ADP employment data in May, US President Trump said that Powell must cut interest rates. The US dollar was under pressure, which was positive for copper prices. At the same time, overseas copper mine supply is tight. Zijin's Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended operations, which may affect production. The first - round long - term TC quote for mines and smelters in the middle of the year is - 15 US dollars/ton, increasing the long - term production reduction pressure on smelters. Technically, Shanghai copper is in an upward trend with the momentum to continue rising. On the supply side, although the supply in Shanghai has decreased slightly today, there will still be inventory in the future, and imported supplies will arrive tomorrow. On the demand side, downstream consumption was light on the first day after the holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined. As the price fell, the downstream's bargaining psychology was obvious. Overall, Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern under the interweaving of multiple and short factors. If it can effectively break through the previous high pressure level of 78,650 yuan/ton, it may open up further room for rebound; if not, it may face a callback risk under the pressure of increased supply and weak demand [8] Iron Ore - On June 4, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a 1.37% increase, closing at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both rebounded. Affected by the off - season of terminal demand and the decline in blast furnace profits, iron water production has decreased for three consecutive periods, and demand may further decline. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Asphalt - On June 4, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a 0.45% decrease, closing at 3506 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June is expected to increase year - on - year. The rainy weather in the south has suppressed demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and asphalt is expected to show an oscillating trend [9] Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,285 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6, the lowest basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in the National Cotton Trading Market was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 85 lots compared with the previous trading day [9] Logs - On Wednesday, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 766, with a minimum of 752.5, a maximum of 768, and closed at 758.5, with a daily reduction of 892 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. Supported by the spot market, the futures price rebounded. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. On June 4, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs at ports has increased slightly, and overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of spot prices, import data, downstream purchasing, and the willingness of traders to support prices [9][11] Steel - On June 4, rb2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3097 yuan/ton. Coke and coking coal led the black series to rise, and the repair of steel mill profits drove the expectation of replenishment. Although the data on May 29 showed that the average daily iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased month - on - month, the profitability of steel mills continued to improve. After the announcement of the increase in steel tariffs, the market's concerns have been partially released, and the prices of terminal finished products have stabilized and rebounded, further strengthening the rigid procurement demand of steel mills for coke and feeding back to the finished product end, leading to an increase [11] Alumina - On June 4, ao2509 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. The long - term production reduction capacity remains, and the incremental output from partial resumption of production and new production capacity is currently mainly used to supplement long - term contracts or directly flow to metallurgical or non - metallurgical terminals. It is difficult to form a quantitative accumulation in the spot circulation supply end, and the spot market price remains stable at a high level. Currently, in terms of trading, both supply and demand sides are in a relatively balanced state of price negotiation. In the future, attention should be paid to the operating behavior of traders based，on their predictions. Fundamentally, the supply is in a process of steady increase, and attention should be paid to potential sudden policies or events [12] Shanghai Aluminium - On June 4, al2507 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton. Affected by the US upgrade of steel and aluminum tariffs and the slight accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, the aluminum price declined. However, the relatively small arrival of aluminum ingots and the partial offset of the off - season demand by short - term terminal export rush will make the inventory pressure of aluminum ingots not obvious, so the low inventory will still support the price [12] Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous working day; battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 59,300 - 61,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 58,150 - 59,150 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continues to move down. From the demand side, the increase in production scheduling in June is extremely limited, and downstream material factories generally pick up goods in the form of long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials. On the upstream supply side, the slight rebound in the previous futures price has provided an opportunity for some non - integrated lithium salt factories to hedge and resume production, and there is an expectation of an increase in market supply. At the same time, with the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, the cost support is gradually weakening, which further suppresses the price of lithium carbonate. Overall, in the context of oversupply, the lithium carbonate market will still operate weakly in the short term, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [12][13][14]