1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - **Viewpoint**: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - **Output**: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Taicheng Light (300570), stated that the impact of the China-U.S. trade friction on its operations is minimal, indicating a stable supply-demand relationship with its main customers [1] Group 1 - The company announced on October 20 that it had addressed inquiries from investors regarding the effects of trade tensions [1] - The settlement model with major customers is based on the FOB (Free on Board) method, which helps mitigate risks associated with trade friction [1] - The company emphasizes ongoing communication and collaboration with customers to jointly reduce the risks posed by trade tensions [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent events suggest short-term volatility in the Hong Kong stock market may not have ended, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - Economic data, US-China tariff news, US tech earnings, and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence trading patterns and styles in the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The technology sector is facing increased volatility risks, with US tech earnings impacting the trading rhythm of Chinese tech stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US stock market showed resilience despite concerns over US-China tensions and credit worries, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 2.1% [1][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance suggests a likelihood of maintaining the current policy path, with a potential rate cut in October being the optimal solution [1][5] - The report notes that the average win rate for October over the past decade is low, while the advantages of November and December are relatively prominent [1][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing US government shutdown, which has entered its third week, potentially exacerbating negative impacts on the economy [3] - Concerns over credit quality in regional banks have emerged, but these are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader liquidity crisis [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US-China trade relations, as further escalation could negatively impact the US economy and inflation risks [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that developed markets saw an increase of 1.4% while emerging markets declined by 0.3% during the week [4][12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 8.0%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.0%, with public utilities leading sector gains [4][12] - The report highlights significant inflows into financials and non-essential consumer sectors, while the information technology sector experienced outflows [4][12] Group 5 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $446.43 billion, with the US stock ETFs leading at $231.7 billion [7][49] - The technology sector was the top recipient of inflows among global stock ETFs, while the communication sector experienced the most significant outflows [7][51] - The report also notes that institutional investors marginally increased their holdings in gold, with significant inflows into major gold ETFs [6][54]

分析师：孙书娜 登记编号： S0890523070001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.10.13-2025.10.17），A股波动相对较大，主要指数均收跌，创业板指领跌，录 得5.71%的跌幅，沪深300录得了2.22%的跌幅，上证指数录得1.47%的跌幅。分版块而言，仅银行、煤炭为代 表的红利和价值板块出现逆势上涨，电子、传媒、通信等科技成长板块出现较大回调。 公募基金市场动态： 2025年内超315亿资金入场，公募参与定增同比增超五成。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪： 主动股基优选指数：上周收跌3.91%，成立以来累计录得13.56%的超额收益。 科技股基优选指数：上周收跌5.53%，成立以来累计录得21.77%的超额收益 。 高端制造股基优选指数：上周收跌6.30%，成立以来累计录得-5.59%的超额收益 。 周期股基优选指数：上周收跌1.11%，成立以来累计录得-2.38%的超额收益。 风险提示： 基金的过往业绩及基金经理管理其他产品的历史业绩不代表未来表现；本报告根据历史公开数据及 定期报告整理，存在失效风险，不代表对基金未来资产配置 ...

对于当前关税战的情况，美国高盛集团警告所有美国人，到2025年年底，美国消费者可能将承担55%的关税成本。 意料之内的是，特朗普对高盛集团的报告十分愤怒。其已经在社交媒体上发文，称高盛经济师"应该换人"。但事实上，高盛集团的预估，仍旧太过乐观。 玉渊潭天指出，自今年7月起，来自美国的粮食运输船在该码头靠岸艘次已降为0。如果中国在11月中旬之前仍未重返美国市场，美国损失的对华大豆订单可 能高达1600万吨。 要知道，对于美国豆农而言，失去中国，就等于失去半个市场。 数据显示，2024年美国出口大豆金额达245.8亿美元，位居美国农产品出口首位，其中中国购买量超一半，价值126.4亿美元。 然而，随着中美贸易摩擦升级，中国已大幅减少从美国进口大豆，转而从巴西和阿根廷采购。 5月以来，同一码头每月平均有40多艘来自阿根廷、巴西、乌拉圭等南美国家的粮食运输船靠岸，这些船只90%运输的都是大豆。 而这一切的根源，都可以追溯到特朗普发动的关税战。 对于这一现实情况，特朗普已经恼羞成怒。10月14日，特朗普在社交媒体上的一番发言再次引爆了中美贸易这个火药桶。 特朗普直言中国"故意不购买美国的大豆，使美国豆农面临困难"，并将 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - In September, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month [2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 41,971 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 3,715.35 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with real estate development investment decreasing by 13.9% [2] Market Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,863.89 points, up 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.98% to 2,993.45 points [5] - The communication, coal, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.21%, 3.04%, and 1.54% respectively [5] - The market turnover was 17,514.91 billion yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day [6] Real Estate Sector - In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a mixed trend, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month decline of 0.3% [3][4] - The year-on-year decline in new residential prices in first-tier cities was 0.7%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [3][4] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with buyer sentiment still cautious, although there are signs of price stabilization due to ongoing policy support [4] Monetary Policy - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, unchanged since May [2] - The current low interest rates for both corporate and personal loans are expected to support economic stability [3] Future Outlook - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to provide insights into the 14th Five-Year Plan, which may influence market sentiment [1] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are expected to impact global trade and China's exports, necessitating continued efforts for economic stability and job security [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, convertible bonds followed the equity market in a volume - shrinking adjustment. High - rated and low - priced convertible bonds outperformed, while high - priced convertible bonds weakened significantly. The net redemption scale of convertible bond ETFs expanded to 2382 million yuan, but convertible bonds showed anti - decline properties compared to the equity market, with the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperforming the Wind All - A Index by 1.43 pcts. - Currently, the market risk preference is running at a low level. Although Sino - US trade friction is expected to ease gradually, short - term market sentiment depends on the progress of Sino - US game before Trump's new round of tariffs on November 1st. Under uncertainty, the defensive value of convertible bonds in dividend and weighted sectors such as banks, coal, gas, and non - bank finance will be prominent. - Some hard - tech sectors need adjustment to regain cost - effectiveness and open up upward space. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to release positive signals for some sectors, and sectors with outstanding performance advantages are expected to get stronger support during the third - quarter report disclosure period. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On October 17, the Ministry of Finance and other three departments issued an announcement to adjust the duty - free shopping policy for Hainan off - island passengers, expanding the scope of duty - free goods from 45 categories to 47 categories, and allowing island residents with off - island records to buy duty - free goods without limit of times under the "buy - and - pick - up - immediately" method. - The same day, the Ministry of Commerce and other five departments released a guidance on improving the overseas comprehensive service system, aiming to build a three - dimensional, full - chain overseas comprehensive service ecosystem, and put forward specific measures in aspects such as optimizing public platforms, integrating local services, extending overseas services, strengthening economic and trade cooperation guarantees, and enhancing the capabilities of overseas - going enterprises. [3][4] Secondary Market - Last week, the main equity market indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 1.26% and 3.86% respectively. Overseas, the US government shutdown and bank credit risks affected market risk preference, and the market started recession trading. - Domestically, the September price data showed that consumption promotion supported CPI, and the low base narrowed the year - on - year decline of PPI. The September export data was better than expected, mainly due to the base effect and the Mid - Autumn Festival date difference. - Affected by global risk events and Sino - US trade frictions, the risk preference of the domestic equity market further weakened, with obvious volume shrinkage and a significant adjustment in the previous strong technology sectors. Funds flowed to dividend and consumer sectors for risk - aversion. - In the convertible bond market, all major indexes declined. High - rated and low - priced convertible bonds were stronger, while high - priced convertible bonds weakened. The net redemption of convertible bond ETFs increased. The valuation of convertible bonds rebounded, and trading activity declined. [6][7][8] Primary Market - Last week, Funeng Convertible Bond and Jinlang Convertible Bond 2 were issued, and no convertible bonds were listed. Some convertible bonds were delisted due to early redemption or maturity. As of October 17, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 59.0529 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3364 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. - Ten convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%. Some convertible bonds announced price adjustments, early redemptions, or were expected to trigger early redemption conditions. Two convertible bonds were approved by the CSRC and waiting to be issued, with a total of 2.677 billion yuan, and eight convertible bonds passed the review committee, with a total of 5.306 billion yuan. [30][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. Core Views of the Report - The core logic of the domestic market is that after the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the asset reaction this week was weaker than in April. A-shares showed a "high-low switch" feature. Before the APEC meeting, the market was still affected by friction news. Although both sides were likely to negotiate cautiously, an unexpected escalation could trigger risks. Commodity prices were unlikely to show a trend upward. Overseas, the US government shutdown led to a data vacuum, and market concerns about the economy eased but risks remained. The Fed was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact might be limited due to market pre-pricing [2]. - The RMB exchange rate was expected to remain basically stable within a reasonable range under the policy tone of "stability first", especially before the important meeting at the end of October [4]. - Stock index fluctuations were expected to intensify, but there was support below. The market was likely to be dominated by large-cap stock indices [7]. - Treasury bonds needed to focus on whether risk sentiment would recover. If risk sentiment recovered and the stock market rebounded, the bond market might not rise further. But before the Sino-US negotiation results were finalized, it was generally favorable for the bond market [9]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures were expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The main contract EC2512 was expected to be supported at 1600 points and resisted near 1750 points [11]. - Precious metals were recommended to be cautious in the short term and bullish in the medium term [16]. - Copper prices were expected to be in a high-level consolidation if the bullish factors did not ferment. For downstream enterprises, a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures at low prices" was recommended [19]. - Aluminum was expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina was expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy was expected to fluctuate at a high level [21]. - Zinc was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the long and short sides still unclear [22]. - Nickel and stainless steel were expected to fluctuate repeatedly due to prominent inventory accumulation [24]. - Tin was expected to fluctuate narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, the supply was weaker than the demand, and it was still regarded as a long position [25]. - Lead was expected to fluctuate narrowly, with limited upside space [26]. - Steel prices might rebound slightly, but the rebound height was limited due to the weak fundamentals of steel, and the possibility of subsequent decline was relatively large [28]. - Iron ore prices were under short-term pressure, and the focus of the market in the next two weeks might be on the Fourth Plenary Session and possible Sino-US talks [30]. - Coking coal and coke were expected to be treated with a volatile mindset, with coking coal in the range of (1100, 1350) and coke in the range of (1600, 1850) [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand. If there were no unexpected stimulus policies, their prices would still be under pressure [33]. - Crude oil was expected to face downward risks in the short and medium term, with the support at $60 being crucial [37]. - LPG was relatively strong in the domestic market due to restricted arrivals, but the overall situation was still affected by the weak fundamentals of crude oil [39]. - PTA-PX was recommended to be observed in the short term, paying attention to domestic and foreign macro nodes [40]. - MEG was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, following the macro sentiment. If there was an oversell, selling put options could be considered [46]. - Methanol was expected to fluctuate under pressure, with the price range maintaining at 2250 - 2350 [47]. - PP was under pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations [50]. - PE was also under pressure due to the supply-demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations [54]. - Pure benzene and styrene were mainly affected by macro factors. Short-term observation was recommended until the macro situation became clear [57]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside space was limited [58]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil's cracking was expected to remain at a low level, with limited upward drive [59]. - Asphalt was expected to decline weakly. Short-term observation was recommended, paying attention to whether there were new demand growth points in the domestic macro meeting [62]. - Rubber and 20 rubber were expected to fluctuate weakly. RU2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 14600 - 15300, and NR2511 in the range of 12000 - 12500 [64]. - Urea was expected to fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro sentiment [65]. - Soda ash was expected to be volatile due to the increase in supply pressure and inventory. The price was limited by high inventory but supported by cost [66]. - Glass was under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to industrial policies [67]. - Caustic soda was expected to wait for the spot to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The long-term production pressure continued [69]. - Pulp was expected to continue the oscillatory pattern, and offset paper was still under pressure [70]. - Logs needed to pay attention to the marginal bullish impact on the far-month contracts under the influence of shipping sanctions [70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was held from October 20th to 23rd to study the suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". - He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. - The State Council Executive Meeting proposed to promote logistics cost reduction, improve the green trade policy system, and support market entities to increase grain purchases. - The US imposed tariffs on medium and heavy trucks and buses starting from November 1st, and the Trump administration adjusted its strategy to hedge legal risks. - Japan's ruling coalition was basically reached, but the future of the "Hayashi deal" was uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1265 at 16:30 on the previous trading day, down 16 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1277 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0949, up 19 basis points. - The RMB exchange rate was expected to remain stable due to policy guidance and the influence of external factors [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated more due to external factors, but there was support below. The market was likely to be dominated by large-cap stock indices. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, the Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, and the Fed's interest rate meeting [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds needed to focus on whether risk sentiment would recover. If risk sentiment recovered and the stock market rebounded, the bond market might not rise further. But before the Sino-US negotiation results were finalized, it was generally favorable for the bond market. Low-position long orders could be held in small quantities, and those with empty positions could wait for the price to fall to build positions [9]. Container Shipping European Line - The container shipping index (European line) futures were expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. The main contract EC2512 was expected to be supported at 1600 points and resisted near 1750 points. Trend traders could try to go long lightly at the support of 1600 points, and arbitrage traders could pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of EC2512 - EC2602 [10][11]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals were recommended to be cautious in the short term and bullish in the medium term. Silver was affected by spot shortages and short squeeze pressure, and the "232 investigation" on silver and palladium in the US also had an impact. The US government shutdown, trade tariff conflicts, and rising banking risks increased economic and financial risks, leading to an increase in the demand for precious metals as a safe-haven asset [13][16]. Copper - Copper prices were expected to be in a high-level consolidation if the bullish factors did not ferment. For downstream enterprises, a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures at low prices" was recommended. The downstream enterprises generally resisted high copper prices, and the destocking was the main theme at present [17][19]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum was expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina was expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The domestic aluminum market was supported by inventory destocking, while alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had strong followability to aluminum [20][21]. Zinc - Zinc was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the long and short sides still unclear. The export window was open, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro upward drive [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel were expected to fluctuate repeatedly due to prominent inventory accumulation. The supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel were affected by factors such as tariffs, production capacity, and inventory. Attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff issues and the expectation of interest rate cuts [23][24]. Tin - Tin was expected to fluctuate narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, the supply was weaker than the demand, and it was still regarded as a long position. The support was expected to be around 276,000 yuan [25]. Lead - Lead was expected to fluctuate narrowly, with limited upside space. The supply was affected by silver prices and raw material restrictions, and the demand was affected by domestic consumption and export demand. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [26]. Black Metals - Steel prices might rebound slightly, but the rebound height was limited due to the weak fundamentals of steel, and the possibility of subsequent decline was relatively large. Iron ore prices were under short-term pressure, and the focus of the market in the next two weeks might be on the Fourth Plenary Session and possible Sino-US talks. Coking coal and coke were expected to be treated with a volatile mindset, with coking coal in the range of (1100, 1350) and coke in the range of (1600, 1850). Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand. If there were no unexpected stimulus policies, their prices would still be under pressure [28][30][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil was expected to face downward risks in the short and medium term, with the support at $60 being crucial. LPG was relatively strong in the domestic market due to restricted arrivals, but the overall situation was still affected by the weak fundamentals of crude oil. PTA - PX was recommended to be observed in the short term, paying attention to domestic and foreign macro nodes. MEG was expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, following the macro sentiment. If there was an oversell, selling put options could be considered. Methanol was expected to fluctuate under pressure, with the price range maintaining at 2250 - 2350. PP and PE were under pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance and macro factors. Attention should be paid to macro trends and cost fluctuations. Pure benzene and styrene were mainly affected by macro factors. Short - term observation was recommended until the macro situation became clear. Fuel oil's cracking upside space was limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking was expected to remain at a low level, with limited upward drive. Asphalt was expected to decline weakly. Short - term observation was recommended, paying attention to whether there were new demand growth points in the domestic macro meeting [36][37][39]. Rubber and 20 Rubber - Rubber and 20 rubber were expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply was affected by weather and inventory, and the demand was affected by factors such as tire sales, export, and automobile inventory. RU2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 14600 - 15300, and NR2511 in the range of 12000 - 12500 [63][64]. Urea - Urea was expected to fluctuate under pressure. The demand was weak, and the inventory increased. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro sentiment [65]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash was expected to be volatile due to the increase in supply pressure and inventory. The price was limited by high inventory but supported by cost. Glass was under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to industrial policies. Caustic soda was expected to wait for the spot to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The long - term production pressure continued [66][67][69]. Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp was expected to continue the oscillatory pattern, and offset paper was still under pressure. Pulp was affected by high inventory and cost support, and offset paper was affected by supply - demand mismatch [70]. Logs - Logs needed to pay attention to the marginal bullish impact on the far - month contracts under the influence of shipping sanctions [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main futures price of soybean oil has been fluctuating and adjusting this week. China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate, with sufficient supply and a weak current situation. In the fourth quarter, which is the traditional consumption peak season for soybean oil, and as it is currently the most cost - effective oil, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center of soybean oil is expected to move up slightly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean oil, with support levels at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and pressure levels at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures have been weakening. The market is worried about the possible consultation on the import control policy of Canadian rapeseed between the two countries, which suppresses the rapeseed oil futures price. The policy expectation mainly affects the market sentiment. The basis price in the spot market has risen slightly today, showing a divergence from the futures price. The inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing, and enterprises are strongly willing to support prices. The basis of rapeseed oil remains stable, and the market is in a stalemate. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the unilateral operation of the 01 contract or buy options to protect existing positions. The support level of the main 01 contract of rapeseed oil is 9800 - 9820 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10020 - 10050 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil has been weakly adjusting this week. The inventory pressure in the palm oil - producing areas in Southeast Asia is not large, and the inventory is expected to enter the November production - reduction season lightly. Coupled with Indonesia's test of B50, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to narrow in the fourth quarter, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main contract of palm oil is 9230 - 9270 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 9650 - 9680 yuan/ton [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The main contract of soybean meal futures has broken through the support level and declined. The U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeds market expectations, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions continue. The current weather in the world's major soybean - producing areas is relatively good, which is suitable for the harvest of U.S. soybeans and the sowing of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans is also insufficient. China's domestic inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, and the supply remains loose. It is advisable to lightly short the main contract of soybean meal unilaterally or consider selling out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of soybeans. The support level of the main contract of soybean meal is 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The support level of the main contract of Bean No. 2 is 3500 - 3530 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3675 - 3700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The sentiment of rapeseed meal has been weak. The market generally expects that the two countries may consult on the rapeseed trade policy. Rapeseed meal is facing the dual pressures of the seasonal consumption off - season and the squeeze of substitute varieties, and the terminal purchasing willingness is low. The continuous weakness of soybean meal also drags down rapeseed meal. It is necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and wait and see before the policy is clear. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed. The support level of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 2230 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Bean No. 1**: The futures price of Bean No. 1 has risen this week. The new - season soybeans in the Northeast market have basically completed the harvest, and the grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing. The high - protein soybeans are in short supply and the price is firm, while the low - protein soybeans have a weak price. With the concentrated listing of soybeans in the Northeast and the low valuation of Bean No. 1 and the reluctance of farmers to sell, the domestic soybean price is running strongly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of Bean No. 1. The pressure level of the 11 contract of Bean No. 1 is in the range of 4050 - 4080 yuan/ton, and the support level is in the range of 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts has remained stable over the weekend. The probability of purchasing U.S. soybeans has increased due to the new round of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased this year, and the planting cost has decreased year - on - year. Currently, the area and quantity of peanut listing are gradually increasing, with upward pressure. However, the futures price has reflected the expected increase in production, and the yield per unit in some areas of Henan is not good, so the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the purchasing dynamics of oil - pressing plants and the new - season procurement situation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices of corn and corn starch have shown a low - level oscillating trend this week. In the external market, there is a game between the harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the good export of U.S. corn, and the sowing in South America has started smoothly, so the overall futures price is expected to remain oscillating at a low level. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is progressing, and the continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. After the futures price refreshed the low point, the market has entered a new game. Considering that the new - season harvest is still in progress, the listing pressure may not be fully reflected, and the futures price is still in the process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or pay attention to the reverse spread of the 1 - 5 spread of corn. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options. The support range of the 01 contract of corn is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200 yuan/ton. The support range of the 11 contract of corn starch is 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2480 - 2500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs has been fluctuating narrowly over the weekend. Recently, the hog price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the hog - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 5:1, with significantly reduced breeding profits. Under the atmosphere of "anti - involution" to limit production capacity, the near - end slaughter of hogs has increased. The futures price of hogs has hit a new annual low. This week, the national average spot price of hogs is about 10.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. Before the festival, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly month - on - month, was at a high level year - on - year, and was higher than that in 2023. The near - end farmers are actively slaughtering, and the supply of standard hogs is loose. The price of 7 - kg piglets has fallen close to the slaughter cost. In terms of the futures price, the Sino - U.S. restart of negotiations is expected to make the agricultural product index oscillate weakly as a whole, and the futures price of hogs is currently at a premium to the spot price. The 01 contract refers to the range of 11000 - 13000 points. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost in the medium - term and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15000 points to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been generally stable with a slight weakness over the weekend. After the seasonal decline, the egg price has stabilized. Since the 10 contract is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival, the futures price has a weak follow - up to the spot price. Currently, the egg index continues to oscillate at the bottom and has reached a historical low. In October, the terminal consumption is expected to decline month - on - month, the current stocking demand has weakened, and farmers are gradually increasing the culling of laying hens, and the price of culled hens has also declined. The supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The national spot price over the weekend is about 3.00 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. Fundamentally, the current egg price is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of laying hens is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for farmers to increase the culling of laying hens to drive the reduction of production capacity. Aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract unilaterally at low prices in the short - term. Since the egg index has approached the historical low level, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in speculative trading or buy the positive spread between the 12 - 1 month contracts at low prices [9]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil 01**: The fundamental situation has not changed much, affected by the significant fluctuations of crude oil recently. The current supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The market is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 01**: The purchase of rapeseed is relatively small, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Palm 01**: The production of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, but the inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the downward space of the palm oil price is limited. The medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. It is advisable to hold long positions [12]. - **Soybean Meal 01**: The current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, with insufficient bullish driving forces. The bullish expectation lies in the continuous Sino - U.S. trade frictions. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 01**: The market is affected by the expected relaxation of trade policies and the weakening of demand. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Corn 01**: The overall pressure environment remains unchanged, with short - term rhythm disturbances. However, the harvest is still in progress, and the pressure has not been fully released. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Starch 11**: The price of corn, the cost end, is expected to face pressure, and the enterprise's inventory accumulation expectation puts pressure on the spot price. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Hogs 01**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and there are policies to reduce production capacity in the industry. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is advisable to mainly wait and see [12]. - **Eggs 12**: Affected by production capacity pressure and the expectation of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock products [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of fats and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is 0 for different shipping dates of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. Gulf. It also provides relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil shipping dates [14][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The report provides the weekly data of fats and oils, including the inventory and operating rate of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [17]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the hog market, including the spot price, breeding cost, profit, slaughter data, and other indicators [19]. - **Eggs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as the laying rate, the proportion of different sizes of eggs, the age of culled hens, and the supply of culled hens, demand - side indicators such as inventory, and profit - related indicators [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: The report provides charts of the closing price of the main contract of hogs, the closing price of the main contract of eggs, the spot price of hogs, the price of piglets, the price of white - striped pork, the spot price of eggs, the price of chicken chicks, and the price of culled hens [22][24][25]. - **Fats and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the import parity profit of palm oil, the import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of palm oil [32][33][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report provides charts of the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of soybean oil [39][40][44]. - **Peanuts**: The report provides charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit of peanuts, the weekly raw material procurement volume of some oil - pressing plants, the weekly operating rate of peanuts, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil - pressing plants, the monthly import volume of peanuts, price spreads, and basis of peanuts [46][48]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, import volume, consumption by deep - processing enterprises, inventory of deep - processing enterprises, ethanol processing profit, and price difference between corn and wheat of corn [50][52][55]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price difference with corn, enterprise operating rate, inventory, price difference with flour, and weekly profit of corn starch [59][61][62]. - **Rapeseed**: The report provides charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, basis, inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills, inventory of rapeseed oil, rapeseed crushing volume, domestic rapeseed crushing profit, and the delivery volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in coastal areas [64][66][68]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report provides charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in national ports, and the inventory of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills [73][75]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].