1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is in an overall oscillatory pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela continue to disturb the crude oil market. Although China's crude oil imports are at a record high and there are expectations of improved demand, the supply - surplus pattern in the crude oil market still exerts downward pressure. Most chemical products are in a state of oscillation due to factors like high inventory of liquid chemicals and the weak - reality and strong - expectation situation in some regions [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - The chemical industry as a whole is oscillating. The inventory of most liquid chemicals increased on Monday, especially pure benzene. The 05 main contract is far from the delivery time, and the weak spot supply - demand situation has limited immediate negative impact on the futures price. High crude oil imports in China and good refined oil profits may lead to high refinery operation before and after the Spring Festival, which is a concern for the chemical industry [2]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disturb, and oil prices continue to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The postponed EIA data shows inventory accumulation in US crude oil and refined products. Although the global crude oil inventory pressure has weakened in the past two weeks, the subsequent inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Geopolitical factors are the core of supply expectations, but there is a lack of marginal drivers for both long and short positions. - **Outlook**: There is still significant downward pressure in the next quarter under the supply - surplus situation, but short - term geopolitical disturbances make the decline unsmooth, so it is regarded as oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices rise following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + increased production in December, and the expectation of raw material supply interruption drives the rise. However, the supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and the high - valuation is being adjusted. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [8]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Although there are expectations of heavy - oil shortage, the demand outlook is suppressed by high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the substitution of fuel - oil power generation by other energy sources. In addition, the refinery processing demand is weak in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [8]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It has a supply - increase and demand - decline trend, but the current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil. - **Outlook**: It follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The monthly spread weakens ahead of the price, and the short - term price adjusts downward. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are consolidating, and some long - position funds take profits before the holiday. There are also expectations of increased supply due to the expansion of PX production benefits. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to adjust downward. Pay attention to the support around 7000 - 7100 [11]. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: It follows the cost to adjust downward in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX adjusts downward, and although the supply - demand pattern changes little, the supply pressure will gradually return with the restart of some devices. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to adjust and oscillate, and the processing fee runs within a range [11]. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality still suppresses, and the market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price is slightly supported by downstream export orders and high overseas prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase. The far - month contract has the expectation of supply - demand improvement. - **Outlook**: The inventory - accumulation pressure is being realized, and the trading is mainly based on reality [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Short - term sentiment dominates the market, and attention is paid to the sustainability of export transactions. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is weak, but there are positive factors such as export expectations and the impact of device maintenance. However, there is a possibility of negative feedback from downstream devices. - **Outlook**: It is about to turn to inventory accumulation, and the export transactions stimulate the rebound periodically [16]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually realized, and the driving force is general. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation, with continuous inventory accumulation and slow reduction in domestic supply. Overseas imports are expected to decrease in February, and domestic supply will be alleviated in March. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [18]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The adjustment range is limited, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost adjusts downward, but the adjustment range of short - fiber is limited. Due to the off - season, the sales are average. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to adjust, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term [20]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It follows the upstream cost to adjust downward. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures decline, and the price of bottle chips follows. The trading atmosphere is weak, and the fundamentals are slightly weak. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw material, and the processing fee is under some pressure [21]. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality in coastal areas contrasts with the strong expectation, and inland areas offer discounts before the festival. Methanol is generally regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: There is a significant difference between coastal and inland areas. Inland prices decline due to pre - holiday sales pressure, while coastal areas have the expectation of reduced imports. - **Outlook**: The trading logic in coastal areas dominates in the short term, and it is regarded as oscillatory [23]. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: There is no new positive news, and urea is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The daily production is high, and there is no new positive news in demand, especially in exports. The market is in a stalemate. - **Outlook**: There is supply pressure in the long term and no new positive news in demand. It may decline slightly [24]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival, and LLDPE is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and LLDPE's own fundamentals have some support, but the demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The basis support is limited, and PP is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, the oil price oscillates, and the demand is in the off - season with high inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the expectation of PDH maintenance, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance has a boosting effect, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment weakens, and PVC declines. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors have a certain impact, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the high - inventory pressure still exists. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment fades, and PVC may oscillate [28]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda is in an oscillatory state. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors affect the market, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment affects the market, and it may oscillate due to low valuation [30]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.42 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 66 with a change of - 24 [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse - receipt data, such as asphalt's basis being - 88 with a change of - 13 and a warehouse receipt of 20840 [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 233 with a change of - 21 [35]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only mentions the names of various varieties for basis and spread monitoring but does not provide specific data and analysis. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities is 2339.89, down 0.59%; the 20 - commodity index is 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial - product index is 2258.87, down 0.70% [279]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 29, 2025, is 1088.67, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a 5 - day decline of 0.99%, a 1 - month decline of 4.21%, and a year - to - date decline of 11.34% [281].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

Group 1: Currency and Policy Changes - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed the 7 mark for the first time in 15 months on December 25, 2025, indicating a continuous appreciation since mid-October[1] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction in Q1 2026, alongside the introduction of more structural tools[1] Group 2: Real Estate and Sales Trends - The average weekly land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 102.8% month-on-month in December, although it remains at a five-year low with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a month-on-month increase of 45.8%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.6%[3] - Second-hand home sales in 18 key cities increased by 13.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7%[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 78.4%, while the operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 2.4 percentage points to 66.1%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 1.6 percentage points to 29.5%, and cement dispatch rates rose by 0.3 percentage points to 31.6%[2] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Prices for copper, rebar, and coking coal have risen, with LME copper prices increasing by 2.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 33.8%[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[4] Group 5: Inventory and Logistics - Energy inventories, including coal at coastal power plants, decreased by 1.8% month-on-month, while U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 525,000 barrels to 1.687 billion barrels[6] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 20.6% month-on-month, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 1.7%[7]

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘缓和，油价重返基本面定价。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣 | 押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠 | 原油 | | | | 谨慎看空 | 加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和 | ★ | | | 成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油 | 产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | LPG | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 开工率升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | | 现货由涨转跌，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足， | LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期 | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41%. With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu increased last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: the price of log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%). The prices of various spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The outer - market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, in November, the port throughput was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - In terms of weekly inventory at major ports, as of December 19, the inventory in China was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters (-4.41%) from December 12. Inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand - In terms of weekly average daily outbound volume, as of December 19, the average daily outbound volume in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters (-2%) from December 12. The demand in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu increased slightly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. - For palm oil, the Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. - For sugar, international sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. - For cotton, the market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. - For eggs, the spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. - For pigs, short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans opened higher and then fell. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from last week's 1.8404 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.45 days last week, up 0.22 days [2]. - Forecasts show more rain in major Brazilian soybean - growing areas in the next two weeks, while rainfall in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, remains low [2]. 策略观点 - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. Palm Oil 行情资讯 - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December. Ship - loading data indicates mixed trends in exports [4]. - India's vegetable oil imports decreased by about 11% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year in November [4]. - Indonesia plans to fine palm oil growers and miners $8.5 billion for forest encroachment [4]. - Last Friday, domestic oils continued to rebound, with better Malaysian palm oil export data and Indonesia's fine plan being positive factors, but high production and low exports limited the market [4]. 策略观点 - The Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. Sugar 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The May contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% [8]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [9]. - In November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production [9]. - As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons [9]. 策略观点 - International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. Cotton 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose with increased positions. The May contract closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton or 1.96% [12]. - In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons [12]. - As of December 26, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and down 6.7 percentage points from the five - year average [12]. - The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [12]. 策略观点 - The market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. Eggs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable or rising. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, while that in Guantao remained at 2.82 yuan/jin. Egg prices may rebound slightly recently but may fall after the New Year's Day [15]. 策略观点 - The spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. Pigs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose significantly. The average price in Henan increased by 0.56 yuan to 12.42 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.67 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. Pig prices are expected to be stable or rising today [18]. 策略观点 - Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - **Silver**: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - **Copper**: Positive market sentiment supports price increases [2]. - **Zinc**: Moving in a sideways range [2]. - **Lead**: Declining inventory supports prices [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - **Aluminum**: Showing a slightly upward - trending oscillation [2]. - **Alumina**: Continuously bottom - grinding [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Platinum**: Bullish sentiment dominates [2]. - **Palladium**: Oscillating upward [2]. - **Nickel**: Intense capital game on the trading floor leads to wide - range price fluctuations [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news from Indonesian nickel mines causes disruptions [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34%; Gold T + D was 1,006.45, up 1.44%; Comex Gold 2602 was 4515.00, up 0.77% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375 to 276,418; the open interest decreased by 2,397 to 199,893. Comex Gold 2602's trading volume increased by 42,965 to 241,461, and open interest increased by 8,818 to 360,434 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1,995 to 93,711 kg; Comex Gold inventory (previous day) increased by 114,168 to 36,120,091 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16441, up 1.50%; Silver T + D was 16420, up 1.52%; Comex Silver 2602 was 71.610, up 3.65% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 to 1,230,157; the open interest decreased by 921 to 340,510. Comex Silver 2602's trading volume increased by 30,063 to 127,435, and open interest remained unchanged at 114,525 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 1805 to 899,663 kg; Comex Silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 3,083,409 to 450,643,486 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 96,210, up 0.11%; the night - session closing price was 97680, up 1.53%. LME Copper 3M was 12,133, up 0.65% [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 81,418 to 477,230; the open interest decreased by 7,370 to 651,557. LME Copper 3M's trading volume decreased by 8,111 to 18,195, and open interest decreased by 2,248 to 340,000 [9]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 6,861 to 59,083; LME Copper inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025, and the注销仓单 ratio was 29.63%, down 1.19% [9]. - **Trend Strength**: 2 [11]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 23065, down 0.71%; LME Zinc 3M was 3086.5, down 0.32% [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 46305 to 125213; the open interest decreased by 1875 to 93322. LME Zinc's trading volume decreased by 4941 to 5944, and open interest decreased by 646 to 227051 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1092 to 41319; LME Zinc inventory increased by 7900 to 106875 [12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [14]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17315, up 0.52%; LME Lead 3M was 1999.5, up 0.83% [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 12922 to 55100; the open interest decreased by 210 to 56328. LME Lead's trading volume decreased by 1794 to 3806, and open interest increased by 167 to 178155 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 900 to 11457; LME Lead inventory decreased by 4200 to 248900 [15]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [16]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 344,750, up 1.27%; LME Tin 3M was 42,835, up 0.25% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased by 11,222 to 228,643; the open interest increased by 31,914 to 61,161. LME Tin 3M's trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [18]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 655 to 8,340; LME Tin inventory increased by 50 to 4,675, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [18]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 22275, down 55; LME Aluminum 3M was 2957, unchanged [22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract decreased by 65183 to 229349; the open interest decreased by 6450 to 290474. LME Aluminum 3M's trading volume was unchanged at 11757 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2646, up 92 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 686.95, up 4.46%; the price of Gold Exchange Platinum was 591.25, down 2.59% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum increased by 201,102 to 227.666; the open interest increased by 718 to 48.732. NYMEX Platinum's trading volume was 82,975, and open interest was 28,141 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 529.05, down 8.54%; the price of RMB Spot Palladium was 416.00, down 9.37% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium decreased by 2,565 to 100.293; the open interest decreased by 2,067 to 23.862. NYMEX Palladium's trading volume was 48.123, and open interest was 67.992 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 125,410, down 2,590 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,990, down 85 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices hit a new high, with the macro - environment remaining warm due to Fed liquidity support and global economic growth repair expectations in 2026. Fundamentals show low inventory and demand resilience, but high prices may suppress physical buying, and domestic inventories may increase. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Alumina continued to decline, converging with futures, and the spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum prices may face inventory build - up pressure and their upward momentum will be weak, continuing to oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - Nickel prices were boosted by news, but the actual implementation is unknown. Stainless steel inventory decreased, and new energy costs and demand weakened. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME was closed, and the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 2.51% to 97,680 yuan/ton. Japan plans a large - scale budget in 2026, and the RMB exchange rate hit a new high. Domestic refined copper inventory increased by 2.52 million tons. High prices made downstream procurement cautious. A long - term bullish view is maintained, but buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The increase in ore shipments and imports put pressure on alumina prices. Aluminum may face inventory build - up pressure, and prices will oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.13%, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.35%. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesian nickel production may decline in 2026, and the government plans to revise the benchmark price formula. Nickel - related prices were mostly stable, and stainless steel inventory decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different changes, and the import loss decreased by 30 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and the import profit increased by 130 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. Alumina inventory decreased, and aluminum inventory increased. The import loss increased by 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,550 yuan/ton. Nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. The import profit decreased significantly [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. Inventory changes were mixed, and the import loss increased by 190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.7%. Inventory increased, and the import loss increased by 5,920 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][12][17]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [51][52].