1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for another 548,000 barrels per day increase in September, which may lead to an oversupply and downward pressure on oil prices. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the potential secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. - PX is in a tight - balance situation with low inventory and high operating rates. With only one potential new device planned at the end of 2025 and high uncertainty, PXN has support due to new PTA device demand [4]. - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production, and multiple devices are under maintenance. The short - term polyester load is strong, but in the long run, there is an oversupply, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [4]. - Rising coal prices support the cost of ethylene glycol. Port inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand is tight. However, there is an expected increase in imports in August, and short - term prices are expected to be strong [4]. - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and the industry is in an oversupply situation. The demand for textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for the same increase in September, which may lead to oversupply and downward price pressure. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the claim of secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. PX - Current PX inventory is low, and the operating rate is high, maintaining a tight - balance situation. In 2025, only one 3 - million - ton device of Yulong Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The domestic PX output in the first half of 2025 was 18.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The annual supply in 2025 is expected to be about 47.8 billion tons, with a growth rate of about 3%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate is 82.35%, down 0.56% week - on - week, and the Asian weekly average is 71.98%, down 0.03% week - on - week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $265 per ton. The downstream PTA is still in an expansion cycle, and the supply - demand gap supports PX prices [4][8]. PTA - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently, and multiple devices are under concentrated maintenance. The downstream polyester is in the off - season, and the processing fee is 204 yuan per ton, remaining flat compared to last week and at a low point this year. With new device production, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the processing fee may be compressed. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, down 1.09% week - on - week. The spot market price is 4,750 yuan per ton, and the mainstream spot basis is 09, - 13 [4][14]. MEG - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,485 yuan per ton, down 2.05% week - on - week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 60.67%, up 1.47% week - on - week, and the coal - based capacity utilization rate is 63.87%, up 3.88% week - on - week. The gross profit has risen to 103.33 yuan per ton, up 15.42 yuan per ton week - on - week. The inventory in East China ports is 427,200 tons, down 47,800 tons week - on - week, at a historical low. Due to the delay of imported goods caused by typhoons, imports are expected to increase. Affected by coal prices, the overall price is expected to be strong [19]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation due to high - level operation. The effectiveness of potential production cuts needs further observation. The demand for long - and short - fiber textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [3][61]. Core Insights - Significant increases in crude oil prices have been observed, with Brent crude futures settling at $72.51 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.25%. WTI crude futures settled at $69.21 per barrel, up 6.30% from the previous month [1][7][11]. - China's crude oil export volume has surged dramatically, with a month-on-month increase of 611.63%, reaching 1,260,301.9 tons [2][49]. - The operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries has risen to 95.4%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a robust refining sector [1][24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures price increased to $72.51 per barrel, a rise of $4.90 per barrel or 7.25% month-on-month. WTI crude futures price reached $69.21 per barrel, up $4.10 per barrel or 6.30% [7][9][11]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC's crude oil production increased to 27,235 thousand barrels per day in June, a month-on-month rise of 219 thousand barrels per day, or 0.81% [21][24]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production rose to 17.25 million barrels per day, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.48 million barrels per day, or 2.86% [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory increased to 1,660,512 thousand barrels, a month-on-month rise of 17,667 thousand barrels, or 1.08% [34][38]. 4. Imports and Exports - In June, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,115.50 thousand barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 2.53%. Conversely, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 5.71% to an average of 3,555.50 thousand barrels per day [2][43][49]. - China's crude oil imports rose to 4,989,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 329,000 tons, or 7.06% [43][47].

Group 1 - Market sentiment continues to decline, with glass futures experiencing a drop in the night session [1] - Institutional analysis indicates that the policy measures have not exceeded expectations, leading to fluctuations in market sentiment [1] - Continuous inventory decline is seen as a sign of improvement in the fundamentals, but the current industry mindset remains cautious, with the market in a high volatility phase [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decrease in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusted widely, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas, LME inventories are stable, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has corrected, with cautious trading between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 214,027 lots, down 9,725 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 11,306 lots, down 419 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 15,232 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 59,419 tons, up 4,789 tons; LME inventory is 109,050 tons, down 3,100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventory is 83,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The newly started housing area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - Automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.97%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15%, down 0.15% - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 13.79%, down 0.07% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzed the current economic situation, and deployed economic work for the second half of the year - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [3]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].

Economic Growth - France's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, slightly above the forecasted 0.2% [1] - Household consumption rebounded with a 0.1% increase, following a 0.3% decline in Q1 [1] Domestic Demand - Final domestic demand (excluding inventory) stagnated, contributing zero to economic growth [1] - The contribution of external trade to economic growth was negative, with exports increasing by 0.2% and imports by 0.8%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point drag [1] Inventory and Manufacturing - Businesses increased inventory, contributing 0.5 percentage points to growth, primarily from the transportation equipment sector, especially aerospace and automotive [1] - Concerns were raised about the increase in inventory indicating unsold goods, suggesting a fragile economic foundation [1] Future Outlook - Economic experts express concerns about the sustainability of growth, noting weak domestic demand and a lack of new manufacturing orders [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month). On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and rose at a low level, with average on-site discussions and a slight increase in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal areas have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal state, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure on the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. - For the strategy, the unilateral strategy is neutral. Attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment, especially the changes in the Sino-US tariff policy negotiation from July 27th to July 30th and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. There are no cross-period or cross-variety strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,467 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton or 0.42% from the previous trading day), and the basis of EG East China spot (based on the 2509 contract) was 62 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$43/ton (down $9/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 84 yuan/ton (down 83 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure of filament has been greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons month-on-month); according to data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons month-on-month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals. Attention should be paid to the actual arrivals [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 3.36 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and road modification asphalt, as well as the waterproofing membrane, all have low and mostly decreasing or flat - lined operating rates [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Regarding the basis, on July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - For the market, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.9204%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 516000 tons, a decrease of 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 642000 tons, an increase of 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1352000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. Factory inventory is 723000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 16000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of multiple asphalt contracts, as well as the price and change data of different types of asphalt in various regions, and the profit data of asphalt processing and delayed coking [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of the social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [71][72]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The report presents the historical trend of transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion rate of infrastructure investment from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [92][93]. - **Categorized Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction, modification, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [101][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].