Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate reaching its highest level since March 2023 [1][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food prices, which increased by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [5][4] - The overall CPI for 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, indicating insufficient effective consumer demand and a mismatch between supply and demand [2][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [8][7] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures and ongoing capacity governance [8][9] - The overall PPI for 2025 decreased by 2.6%, indicating a historically low price level combination, which aligns with the current macroeconomic context of supply exceeding demand [9][10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The "stabilize growth and promote consumption" policies are expected to gradually release their effects, with a low base effect anticipated to contribute to a moderate increase in CPI in 2026 [2][6] - The ongoing governance of key industries and the establishment of a unified national market are expected to continue into 2026, potentially improving price competition and market expectations [10][11] - Factors such as the low base effect from 2025's PPI decline and complex domestic and international economic conditions may drive an increase in upstream raw material prices in 2026 [11]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a rise of 0.1 percentage points compared to November [1] - The increase in CPI is attributed to effective policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, along with heightened consumer demand due to the approaching New Year [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth [2]

期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)1月9日，国家统计局公布数据显示，2025年12月，全国居民消费价格指数 (CPI)同比上涨0.8%，涨幅扩大，创下2023年3月以来新高；环比由降转升，上涨0.2%。 东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳也认为，2025年物价走势的一个重要支撑点在于，在以旧换新政策发 力下，全年汽车、家电、手机等商品价格同比数据上行势头较为明显，成为推动2025年核心CPI同比涨 幅略有扩大的主要原因。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，预计2026年内CPI将温和回升，全年中枢可能在0.5%左右，PPI有望 在三季度实现当月同比增速的由负转正。推动物价回升的关键因素，具体包括内需改善、服务价格修 复、居民和企业预期的稳定。 国盛证券（002670）首席经济学家熊园也认为，2026年CPI、PPI大概率同步回升，PPI同比在下半年转 正的可能性较大。CPI方面，猪价有望温和回升，原油价格大概率维持低位震荡，服务消费、耐用品消 费仍将支撑核心CPI改善。PPI方面，"反内卷"政策预计提振煤炭、螺纹钢和碳酸锂价格，海外铜矿减产 和全球电网、AI数据中心、再工业化等需求可能推升铜价，推动PPI同比降幅收窄，最快转 ...

2026年1月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增 加，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%。受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政 策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 其中，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大 拉动。PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 整体来看，2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。2025年全年，工业生产者出厂价格下降2.6%。 远东资信研究院副院长张林对21世纪经济报道记者表示，12月CPI同比与环比价格改善，在市场预期范围之内，但处于市场预期 的上沿。对于全年数据，从历史上来看，0%的CPI和-2.6%的PPI是偏低的价格水平组合，这符合当前宏观经济供强于需，以及居 民部门仍处在去杠杆过程中的总体背景和基本面。 12月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate reaching its highest level since March 2023 [1][3] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a rise in food prices, which increased by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase [4][6] - The overall CPI for 2025 remained flat compared to the previous year, indicating a relative lack of effective consumer demand and a mismatch between supply and demand [2][7] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of increase, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [8][9] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures and ongoing capacity governance [9][10] - The overall PPI for 2025 decreased by 2.6%, indicating a historically low price level combination, which aligns with the current macroeconomic context of supply exceeding demand [11][12] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The gradual release of "stabilizing growth and promoting consumption" policies is expected to lead to a moderate increase in CPI in 2026, surpassing the flat growth of 2025 [2][7] - The anticipated low base effect from the 2025 PPI decline may contribute to a rise in PPI in 2026, alongside increased demand for resources in a complex economic environment [12] - Continued efforts to address "involution" in competition and the establishment of a unified national market are expected to positively influence price dynamics in the coming year [11][12]

Inflation Overview - December CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year[2] - Food prices contributed approximately 0.05 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI increase, while industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) added about 0.16 percentage points[2] - Year-on-year, service prices contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points to CPI, and industrial consumer goods prices (excluding energy) contributed about 0.63 percentage points[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with PPIRM down by 2.1% year-on-year[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw prices rise for three consecutive months, indicating improved supply-demand structures[19] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is narrowing, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals prices by 10.5%[19] Policy Impact - Consumer stimulus policies are showing continued effects, with a notable reduction in the drag from food prices on CPI[7] - The strategy to boost CPI growth in 2026 focuses on reducing food price impacts, improving industrial consumer goods prices, and enhancing service consumption[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of strong expectations but weak reality, with the market likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [9]. - Given the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is advisable to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of January 9, the closing price of the main rebar contract was 3144 yuan/ton (+22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3340 yuan/ton (+20) [7]. - Rebar production increased to 191.04 million tons (+2.82), a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons [7]. - The apparent demand further declined, with this period's apparent demand at 174.96 million tons (-25.48), a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons [7]. - Both factory and social inventories increased. The total rebar inventory was 438.11 million tons (+16.08), a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the same period last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continued to increase, and coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter range - bound trading [9]. - **Technical - aspect**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell, with technical support at the 3100 level [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The RB2605 contract first rose and then fell this week and was weaker than the RB2610 contract. On the 9th, the spread was - 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On January 9, the rebar warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1811 tons week - on - week, and the net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract increased by 30564 lots [22]. - **Spot price and basis**: On January 9, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the national average price increased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, with the basis on the 9th at 196 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [34]. - **Iron ore supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports increased, and port inventories increased. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased [38]. - **Coking plant situation**: The capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories decreased. The total coking coal inventory increased, and the available days of coking coal increased [42]. 3.4. Industry Situation 3.4.1. Supply - side - **Crude steel production**: In November 2025, China's crude steel production was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [46]. - **Rebar production**: On January 8, the weekly rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons week - on - week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.62% week - on - week [50][53]. - **Electric furnace steel**: The average operating rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.34 percentage points month - on - month [53]. - **Rebar inventory**: On January 8, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons month - on - month [56]. 3.4.2. Demand - side - **Real estate**: From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.5% [59]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [59]. 3.5. Options Market - Due to the positive macro - expectations and the sluggish performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [62].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only Shanghai aluminum rising by 1.42%. Shanghai nickel led the decline with a drop of 2.67%, while other metals fell by less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals collectively rose, with London tin increasing by 1.84%, nickel by 1.72%, copper by 1.17%, and aluminum by 1.16% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rising by 0.53% and silver by 2.69%, while domestic gold increased by 0.68% and silver fell by 0.9% [1] Black Metals - The black metal sector showed mixed results, with stainless steel rising by 0.25%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell by over 1%, with rebar down 1.1% and hot-rolled coil down 1.02% [1] - In the coking coal sector, coking coal fell by 0.71% and coking coke dropped by 1.83% [1] Macro Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with food prices increasing by 1.1% and non-food prices by 0.8% [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] Renewable Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced guidelines for industrial green microgrid construction, mandating that newly built renewable energy generation facilities should have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% [6][7] E-commerce Logistics - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for December 2025 was 113.6 points, reflecting a 0.5-point increase from the previous month [8] - The increase in the index was driven by improvements in supply-side metrics, while demand remained stable [8] Real Estate Financing - Recent policy guidance allows for the extension of loans for projects on the "white list" of the real estate financing coordination mechanism for up to five years, a significant increase from the previous maximum of two and a half years [9] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.15% to 99.01, amid concerns over labor demand and upcoming economic data releases [11] - Oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 0.93% and Brent by 0.97%, driven by geopolitical concerns regarding supply disruptions [12]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the highest growth since March 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][3][5] - The primary driver for the CPI increase was the rise in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw price increases of 18.2% and 4.4% respectively [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating stable demand recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking three consecutive months of increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [8][10] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing experienced price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [10] - The year-on-year decline in PPI is expected to narrow further in 2026, with predictions of a potential positive growth rate in the latter half of the year driven by domestic demand recovery and stable expectations [12][13] Group 3 - Experts forecast a moderate recovery in prices for 2026, with CPI expected to stabilize around 0.5% and PPI potentially turning positive by the third quarter [12][13] - Factors contributing to this price recovery include improvements in domestic demand, service price recovery, and stabilization of consumer and business expectations [12][13] - However, some analysts caution that low prices may persist throughout 2026, with a gradual return to inflation expected only by 2027 [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the industrial producer price index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months as of December 2025, reflecting improvements in market competition and price adjustments in key industries [1][3] - In December 2025, the PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, marking an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, with notable price increases in coal mining and processing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and cement manufacturing [1] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a positive shift in pricing dynamics across various sectors due to effective macroeconomic policies [3] Group 2 - The ongoing comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition is leading to a significant reduction in price declines in industries such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, while the demand for raw materials is increasing due to the green and intelligent transformation of industries [5] - There is a growing demand for high-quality consumer goods among residents, which is positively impacting the supply-demand situation in sectors like cultural, educational, and sports entertainment products, resulting in better price increases compared to previous years [5]